Lake Forest New Home Buyer

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I haven't read a single thing in this thread until I heard there is someone betting avocados in here. So what is the bet, and what are the odds I am going to get some avocados?



Who the hell wants to live in Lake Forest? Does it have an avocado tree? No? Then why?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1226674839]I haven't read a single thing in this thread until I heard there is someone betting avocados in here. So what is the bet, and what are the odds I am going to get some avocados?



Who the hell wants to live in Lake Forest? Does it have an avocado tree? No? Then why?</blockquote>


Can I get a guac-a-mo-le!



Viva la guacamole revolution!
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1226674934][quote author="graphrix" date=1226674839]I haven't read a single thing in this thread until I heard there is someone betting avocados in here. So what is the bet, and what are the odds I am going to get some avocados?



Who the hell wants to live in Lake Forest? Does it have an avocado tree? No? Then why?</blockquote>


Can I get a guac-a-mo-le!



Viva la guacamole revolution!</blockquote>


<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>



Edit to add: I apologize for the thread hijack.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1226656373]



Freedom, are you having a bad day? In 1998 a crappy two bedroom apt in LF was $1200/mo. In 2001, during the recession, albeit mild, you couldn't even rent a room in LF for less than $500. A 5 bd house in 2009 is not going to rent for $1,600. I'll bet you two avocados and 5 tomatos :)</blockquote>


Not particularly bad. And I even got to ride tonight in the recently reopened section of the santa ana mountains, so that's great!



I did say two years, above, so my prediction is for the end of 2010. If this house drops to around $300k, the cost to own will be around $2k/month. Therefore, I think that good quality renters will not pay more than that to rent. I bet that I could find a similar rental in LF for $2k today, and rents will not be going up in the next two years, imho. But it depends on how bad this recession/depression gets. If prices do drop to 1996-7 levels, that is $200k, or $1500/month



So OK, I'll bet you half a dozen xmas tamales to your xmas quacamole, to be exchanged around xmas 2010.





(I know you think I am too bearish, and last year I would have agreed. But so far this year the economic flashover has been much, much worse than my most pessimistic predictions. 1996 here we come)
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1226679996][quote author="stepping_up" date=1226656373]



Freedom, are you having a bad day? In 1998 a crappy two bedroom apt in LF was $1200/mo. In 2001, during the recession, albeit mild, you couldn't even rent a room in LF for less than $500. A 5 bd house in 2009 is not going to rent for $1,600. I'll bet you two avocados and 5 tomatos :)</blockquote>


Not particularly bad. And I even got to ride tonight in the recently reopened section of the santa ana mountains, so that's great!



I did say two years, above, so my prediction is for the end of 2010. If this house drops to around $300k, the cost to own will be around $2k/month. Therefore, I think that good quality renters will not pay more than that to rent. I bet that I could find a similar rental in LF for $2k today, and rents will not be going up in the next two years, imho. But it depends on how bad this recession/depression gets. If prices do drop to 1996-7 levels, that is $200k, or $1500/month



So OK, I'll bet you half a dozen xmas tamales to your xmas quacamole, to be exchanged around xmas 2010.





(I know you think I am too bearish, and last year I would have agreed. But so far this year the economic flashover has been much, much worse than my most pessimistic predictions. 1996 here we come)</blockquote>


OK, I like your bet. I just can't see rents going down 30%. Yes we're losing jobs, but this isn't Detroit. Also, everyone seems to be in agreement that the real estate market will over correct, meaning houses will be cheaper to own than rent. Even if the price of the house goes down another 25%, the rent won't necessarily decline by the same percentage.



Glad to hear you had a nice finish to your day. Next time you're in the neighborhood stop by and pick a few avocados. There are still plenty on the tree. The honey mandarins are starting to ripen now too and we've got lemons coming out of our ears. I'll send you home with some chard too. Man that stuff grows fast.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1226674934][quote author="graphrix" date=1226674839]I haven't read a single thing in this thread until I heard there is someone betting avocados in here. So what is the bet, and what are the odds I am going to get some avocados?



Who the hell wants to live in Lake Forest? Does it have an avocado tree? No? Then why?</blockquote>


Can I get a guac-a-mo-le!



Viva la guacamole revolution!</blockquote>


Did I hear avocados? I have a backyard and an avocado tree over 100 yr old. Both are on the endangered list in OC. The nice IHBers are welcome to pick the crop next year. The avocados are big with the rough texture skin. Momo I think is already packing his seaweed and sushi mat.



In the meantime be nice to Nancy Grace to stay on the nice IHBer list.
 
If you are a red blooded 24yr young man, your main interest should be women, not real estate. You will regret for the rest of your life wasting your youth on a 60s ranch home. I suggest you live in a single friendly apartment, like the many IAC apartments in Newport Beach, or Park Newport, on the cornder of Jamboree & San Joaquin Hills. Buy when you are 30.



Having said that, back when I was 25, my dad convinced me to put a deposit on a new SFR in Westpark II, price was around $280k if I recall correctly. I backed out against my dad's advice because I thought it was too big of a house and too big of a payment for a single guy. Even in today's depressed market, that house is probably worth > $1 mil today. My dad still reminds me that "if you only took my advice back then and bought that Westpark house....."
 
I started purchasing houses back when I was 23... Alot of the young ladies really loved that I had a house and a nice car... unfortunately I had little money for anything else.... HELLO CREDIT!



-bix
 
This is whatchya do. You get yourself a nice newer condo when the time is right. Make it a 2 bedroom. (There is logic behind this.) You can allow yourself to have a room mate to help pay the mortage, but don't rely on it. If you had to move, a two bed would be easier to lease (or so I've read from the experts here.) But the main point is that your first purchase should always be viewed as a stepping stone. You will get married. You will begin your newlywed lives there. You shall have a child which will make use of that second bedroom. You move before the second one is born. By that point you will have generated some equity and can go on to bigger and better things like a SFR. The morale of the story is - Think: <em>Stepping Stone.</em>
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1226736648]

Did I hear avocados? I have a backyard and an avocado tree over 100 yr old. Both are on the endangered list in OC. The nice IHBers are welcome to pick the crop next year. The avocados are big with the rough texture skin. Momo I think is already packing his seaweed and sushi mat.



In the meantime be nice to Nancy Grace to stay on the nice IHBer list.</blockquote>


Nancy Grace is the nicest, bestest, most beautiful woman in the world.



Note: I love avocados. And I will hold you to this, bk!
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1226750507]Do we need an avocado thread? I wish I had known Cayci, would have brought you some.</blockquote>


!!!



Graph says we can stop by!
 
Thanks for the advice folks. I've been stealthily looking over listings on Redfin and the like since my first post here and have "learned" quite a bit.



At age 24 a lot of things pull at you, including the desire to spend that 20K you've saved in your first year at a real corporate job. All of my friends have purchased nice cars (BMW 3 series, Audi A4's, etc, and I've had my eye on that sexy Acura TL since 2004...). It's difficult to resist the temptation. Then again, according to the bears, the market in Irvine will be going down until 2010 anyway, so why not buy the car now? *chuckles*



I think I might just tie the money up in rotating CD's to ensure I don't go crazy and convince myself to spend it all on something else... However, I agree with a lot of you when you say I should just move out and rent in a nice single-friendly area in Newport or Irvine. It's a lot of stress living at home with wacky parents, saving money for homes I cannot afford alone. Not to mention you don't meet many ladies on your commute to work or in your childhood neighborhood... God I miss UCLA.



So what do you guys think? Keep up with the house search, as I'll likely find a South/Central OC home at rental parity in 2009? Buy the last remaining Acura TL before the hideous new ones are the only thing available? Or move out and spend the savings on rent while "living life?"
 
You could do both. But that may mean purchasing in 2010 or 2011 (or maybe even later), which isn't so bad.



Just don't get those ugly 09's!
 
Buy a used acura for half the price of a new one



Rent with roommates in a fun area



Live below your means and continue to save up cash
 
show of hands how many people are at the same job that they had at age 24 (hopefully not!) even at same company? or living in the same town?
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1228276924]show of hands how many people are at the same job that they had at age 24 (hopefully not!) even at same company? or living in the same town?</blockquote>


none of the above.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1228275513]Buy a used acura for half the price of a new one



Rent with roommates in a fun area



Live below your means and continue to save up cash</blockquote>


Amen to that, buying a new car might feel good but it's a wealth killer (just like buying overpriced real estate). Buy the cheapest used car you can (could be a luxury brand, you'll be surprised how cheap a 5 year old luxury car might be), save and invest the difference. Let others spend or get hooked to debt in their 20s and 30s; in your 20s and 30s you should focuse on learning to save/invest as wisely as possible.
 
I would buy a small condo and make it your future rental when you want to upgrade. I make three times your income and think $400K is to much for me let alone your income. Find a nice condo in the 200K range. Live the bachelor life for a few years and then find a wife with good income. You can then afford this house when it goes down even more. You could even then afford the Sun and Sail Club area which is a lot better.
 
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