Ladera Ranch projections

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1225268498][quote author="freedomCM" date=1225267102]My suspicion is that most of those Ladera buyers didn't pay cash, but instead have jumbo ARMS. some may even have expiring teaser rate optionARMS.



I predict that the inventory on the MLS will increase significantly over the next two years as these reset.</blockquote>


My suspicion is not. If you're a move-up buyer, sure, you may only be in your house for 4 years or so. Why not get an 5/1 arm?



I doubt a lot of the people buying 4,000 sq.ft houses are thinking about the next upgrade right around the corner... They probably did fixed.</blockquote>




I dunno, I think there are a lot of people who thought prices would keep going up. They probably had visions of their next moveup to Shady Canyon.
 
Actually, about 80% of the mortgages at the $1m to $2m range were option-arm in Ladera Ranch. I did several samplings on the deeds, took a look, and most people who lost their homes were because they couldn't afford the 'teaster rate' - and weren't even close to paying the full interest only payment - let alone any reset or principal payment issues.

Ladera buyers were often times realtors, mortgage, or lower-commodity sales people, and were way out of their league when they bought they homes.



Google oc tax collector - and then go to the oc tax collector site - punch in someones address - and you can see if they are behind on the property taxes. I know of several in Ldera where they haven't paid property taxes since 2005.

Its still has ways to go - seeing homes like 43 Foliate, Bought for $1.35m in 2005, now taken back and sold as an REO -just closed at $900k (and no, the house was not trashed)

THat's very typical here - about 35 to 40% reductions - and prices in Ladera are at 2003 levels, looking to go to 2002 soon.
 
eclipxe, you should rent a place there and see how you like it....then you can watch/monitor the upcoming foreclosures pick off the one you want when you're ready. Just watch out for rent skimming !



I like the feel of Ladera too, just not those power lines.
 
eclipxe - We are renting for a few years until home prices fall some more. I think the one thing we would do differently is we would rent a larger home, a bit more like a home we intend to purchase, and be less concerned with saving money on rent. Renting is actually a pleasant experience for me because I would normally be responsible for the major upkeep on our owned home. Renting is more difficult on my wife because she can not do everything she wants to and our present home is a bit too small for her taste.
 
We live in Ladera Ranch, with no views of power lines. I have to agree, that you do see them driving into town and if that bothers you, than I would not think about moving here. I don't see that many for sales signs as I did months ago, however I think the worst is yet to come. Many people bought way beyond their means around here and are only making those minimum payments on their option-arms. I would rent for a while and safe some money that would be lost in the next two years as the market drops some more.





We bought in 2003 at a fixed rate and are here to stay. Our taxes are about $14,000 a year (including mello roos) and our HOA is $200.00 which includes internet. We live in a 3600 square foot house. The townhouses have higher HOA fees for sure, some as high as $450.00 a month. I would recommend renting here for a while and see how you like it. We love it! From the Flintridge Village we can walk to the school, shopping, clubhouse, dogpark, etc . . . and we know every single one of our neighbors and look out for each other. Our old place in Mission Viejo, we met hardly anyone in the 6 years we lived there. We also have block parties every few months and our kids play together. That being said, I would check our your prospective neighborhood and see who your neighbors are first. That was a huge thing for us. Avendale is a little dense for us, but Oak Knoll has some nicer older townhomes within walking distance to shopping, etc . . . There are some nice townhomes in Echo Ridge Village which have a view as well and are close to everything.



Hope this helps.
 
[quote author="sandybeach" date=1225317163]We live in Ladera Ranch, with no views of power lines. I have to agree, that you do see them driving into town and if that bothers you, than I would not think about moving here. I don't see that many for sales signs as I did months ago, however I think the worst is yet to come. Many people bought way beyond their means around here and are only making those minimum payments on their option-arms. I would rent for a while and safe some money that would be lost in the next two years as the market drops some more.





We bought in 2003 at a fixed rate and are here to stay. Our taxes are about $14,000 a year (including mello roos) and our HOA is $200.00 which includes internet. We live in a 3600 square foot house. The townhouses have higher HOA fees for sure, some as high as $450.00 a month. I would recommend renting here for a while and see how you like it. We love it! From the Flintridge Village we can walk to the school, shopping, clubhouse, dogpark, etc . . . and we know every single one of our neighbors and look out for each other. Our old place in Mission Viejo, we met hardly anyone in the 6 years we lived there. We also have block parties every few months and our kids play together. That being said, I would check our your prospective neighborhood and see who your neighbors are first. That was a huge thing for us. Avendale is a little dense for us, but Oak Knoll has some nicer older townhomes within walking distance to shopping, etc . . . There are some nice townhomes in Echo Ridge Village which have a view as well and are close to everything.



Hope this helps.</blockquote>


When you say the HOA includes the internet what do you mean? What if you want to turn it off for a while do you still have to pay? Or is it always on so it's there whether you use it or not, but included in the HOA?



thanks,
 
<blockquote><u>Association Dues</u>



The association is funded by a pre-determined monthly assessment collected from individual property owners. Dues are determined according to the Department of Real Estate's budget guidelines and amounts are approved by the Department prior to the commencement of sales. The Ladera Ranch HOA pays for your access to all recreational amenities including all five clubhouses, all pools, parks, tennis courts, basketball courts, and all urban and natural trails running through and around Ladera Ranch. <strong>The base assessment also includes you high speed Internet access as provided by Cox, www.cox.com/oc/ladera, and access to LaderaLife, the online community Intranet, exclusive to Ladera Ranch residents.</strong></blockquote>


<a href="http://www.laderaranchnews.com/id1.html">Ladera Ranch Website</a>
 
A huge percentage of the buyers in Covenant Hills are in there with Option Arm's, and I have to think that the reason they took out an option arm in the first place is that they couldn't afford the full payment.



There is going to be a steady stream of foreclosures in Covenant Hills for the next few years, unless the government comes in with some huge bailout to save all of them.



If you are looking for a deal there...be patient. Most of the homes sold in Covenant Hills sold in the last 1 to 3 years, so they are all seriously underwater. But the other side is that most of them are still able to make their minimum option arm payment and are not yet in default. I have to think that default rate in Covenant Hills is going to continue to get worse for a while. Have to find a motivated seller too, because if it is just a guy putting his house on the market to see what he can get, it would likely be a huge short sale.



One thing to note, HOA through most of Ladera for SFR's is $190 to $200 per month. HOA in Covenant Hills is $400 per month to pay for the guard gates. Mello Roos is also higher there.
 
[quote author="zovall" date=1225349961]<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/Ladera20081029.gif" alt="" /></blockquote>


Sorry for my ignorance but what does this chart represent? Thanks.
 
[quote author="Joe33" date=1225356051][quote author="zovall" date=1225349961]<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/Ladera20081029.gif" alt="" /></blockquote>


Sorry for my ignorance but what does this chart represent? Thanks.</blockquote>


Just a guess: the red Bs indicate bank owned properties, REO; the blue As are notices of trustee sale; and the green Ps are notice of defaults.



Does anybody know what the address is on the lone red B in the custom section of Covenant Hills?
 
[quote author="sandybeach" date=1225317163]We live in Ladera Ranch, with no views of power lines. I have to agree, that you do see them driving into town and if that bothers you, than I would not think about moving here. I don't see that many for sales signs as I did months ago, however I think the worst is yet to come. Many people bought way beyond their means around here and are only making those minimum payments on their option-arms. I would rent for a while and safe some money that would be lost in the next two years as the market drops some more.





We bought in 2003 at a fixed rate and are here to stay. Our taxes are about $14,000 a year (including mello roos) and our HOA is $200.00 which includes internet. We live in a 3600 square foot house. The townhouses have higher HOA fees for sure, some as high as $450.00 a month. I would recommend renting here for a while and see how you like it. We love it! From the Flintridge Village we can walk to the school, shopping, clubhouse, dogpark, etc . . . and we know every single one of our neighbors and look out for each other. Our old place in Mission Viejo, we met hardly anyone in the 6 years we lived there. We also have block parties every few months and our kids play together. That being said, I would check our your prospective neighborhood and see who your neighbors are first. That was a huge thing for us. Avendale is a little dense for us, but Oak Knoll has some nicer older townhomes within walking distance to shopping, etc . . . There are some nice townhomes in Echo Ridge Village which have a view as well and are close to everything.



Hope this helps.</blockquote>


Thank you, it does help!
 
[quote author="ogredave" date=1225322592]<blockquote><u>Association Dues</u>



The association is funded by a pre-determined monthly assessment collected from individual property owners. Dues are determined according to the Department of Real Estate's budget guidelines and amounts are approved by the Department prior to the commencement of sales. The Ladera Ranch HOA pays for your access to all recreational amenities including all five clubhouses, all pools, parks, tennis courts, basketball courts, and all urban and natural trails running through and around Ladera Ranch. <strong>The base assessment also includes you high speed Internet access as provided by Cox, www.cox.com/oc/ladera, and access to LaderaLife, the online community Intranet, exclusive to Ladera Ranch residents.</strong></blockquote>


<a href="http://www.laderaranchnews.com/id1.html">Ladera Ranch Website</a></blockquote>


Thanks! I'm not too concerned with HOA - Internet + Homeowner's insurance (for the townhomes) makes the huge number seem a little more palatable. The extra $150-$200/mo for landscaping and not having yard care, no big deal in the long run.
 
[quote author="Joe33" date=1225343691]A huge percentage of the buyers in Covenant Hills are in there with Option Arm's, and I have to think that the reason they took out an option arm in the first place is that they couldn't afford the full payment.



There is going to be a steady stream of foreclosures in Covenant Hills for the next few years, unless the government comes in with some huge bailout to save all of them.



If you are looking for a deal there...be patient. Most of the homes sold in Covenant Hills sold in the last 1 to 3 years, so they are all seriously underwater. But the other side is that most of them are still able to make their minimum option arm payment and are not yet in default. I have to think that default rate in Covenant Hills is going to continue to get worse for a while. Have to find a motivated seller too, because if it is just a guy putting his house on the market to see what he can get, it would likely be a huge short sale.



One thing to note, HOA through most of Ladera for SFR's is $190 to $200 per month. HOA in Covenant Hills is $400 per month to pay for the guard gates. Mello Roos is also higher there.</blockquote>


Not really looking in Covenant Hills, but thank you! I like the older, more built out area - near Mercantile West and Avendale Village
 
[quote author="zovall" date=1225349961]<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/Ladera20081029.gif" alt="" /></blockquote>


Excellent, thank you!! Exactly what I was looking for.



I'm holding tight and renting right now (and saving up for my down payment) and I figure I'll start seriously looking around August/September 09. I've thought about renting in Ladera first, however I haven't been able to find too many decent rentals on Craigslist - what is another place to find rentals (non apartment)?



Thanks!
 
The HOA fees covers you high speed internet access which is COX. If you turn it off you still pay for it. It's always so it's there whether you use it or not. As a resident you also get access to LaderaLife.com which is their community connections web site.



Your HOA fees also pay for maintenance of all the parks/clubhouse/pools/plunges. You have access to all these facilities as a resident. Clubhouse rental is extra, but use of the water park, pools, tennis courts, skate board park, etc . . . are all included.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1225358425]Does anybody know what the address is on the lone red B in the custom section of Covenant Hills?</blockquote>


The address is 12 Thomas Road. I'm not sure if I'm reading the data right but it looks like it went back to the bank for $544k on 8/6/08 so perhaps it is a custom lot?
 
[quote author="eclipxe" date=1225360353][quote author="zovall" date=1225349961]<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/Ladera20081029.gif" alt="" /></blockquote>


Excellent, thank you!! Exactly what I was looking for.



I'm holding tight and renting right now (and saving up for my down payment) and I figure I'll start seriously looking around August/September 09. I've thought about renting in Ladera first, however I haven't been able to find too many decent rentals on Craigslist - what is another place to find rentals (non apartment)?



Thanks!</blockquote>


I found 54 houses for rent in Ladera on the realtors.com website.



http://www.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?loc=Ladera+Ranch,+CA&bor=2



Not sure if it is taboo around here to link to the evil realtors website.
 
[quote author="Joe33" date=1225416305]



I found 54 houses for rent in Ladera on the realtors.com website.



http://www.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?loc=Ladera+Ranch,+CA&bor=2



Not sure if it is taboo around here to link to the evil realtors website.</blockquote>


No, I think it's OK since there are some of us rumored to be only quasi-evil.

(but you might try the < a > function)



<a href="http://www.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?loc=Ladera+Ranch,+CA&bor=2">http://www.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?loc=Ladera+Ranch,+CA&bor=2</a>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top