Ladera Ranch projections

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
E

eclipxe_IHB

New member
Hey everyone -



I'm 24 in Temecula (went to UCI) and looking to move back to OC. I thankfully followed the advice of others in this forum and avoided buying a condo for about $280k out here in June. I'm now renting here until next September when I hope the market would have shedded another 10-15%. I've been checking out neighborhoods and areas for about a year (all over OC, LA and San Diego and Temecula) and I really, REALLY enjoy the feel in Ladera (density, small streets, canyons, etc). It is also very close to the Ortega, so a quick jott out to Temecula for friends and family. I thankfully work at home, so a commute is a non-issue (but I'd rather be in OC just in case - not many Software jobs in Temecula!).



Anyway, I understand the cons of Ladera - the high taxes, mello roos, etc etc. What is the average additional monthly load like out there? Say on a $375k place, I'd estimate $500 in taxes/melloroos + $300 association/mo - does that sound about right? (This is based just on informal calculations from RedFin's previous tax data). Factor in the homeowner's insurance savings from the Townhouse's HOA and the included Internet, it's realistically about $150 extra, so $650 or so more a month.



What about upcoming foreclosures? I'm looking at places right now under $450k, 3/2 at least 1500sqft, pref 1600+. There are only about 20-30 that match my preferences, but I'd like to stay UNDER $400k for a comparable place next September. I was considering a subscription to ForclosureRadar but I can't justify the cost this long out. Anyone have an idea of the number of lower end places (under $500k) that are in the pipeline? From everything I hear, Ladera is way underwater...



Opinions on a 3/2, 1500+ in Ladera, August/September 2009?
 
You should drive through Ladera.

There are for sale signs on every corner.

Ladera is getting hammered with foreclosures.

And it's only going to get worse before it gets better.
 
[quote author="CalGal" date=1224929916]You should drive through Ladera.

There are for sale signs on every corner.

Ladera is getting hammered with foreclosures.

And it's only going to get worse before it gets better.</blockquote>


Thanks for the reply! I was just there yesterday and drove around for about 3 hours, every neighborhood and street. (I really hope I didn't seem like a creeper). There were actually not that many for sale signs. I might be immune to them however (being in Temecula - it's not abnormal to see streets full of them).



Based on Redfin, there are only 29 properties under $425k >1500sqft. Going up to $450k we get about 50. Not exactly a flaming inferno but that's why I was interested in the "shadow inventory". If anyone had insight into the low-end foreclosure activity there. I would imagine that the high-end was much more prone to fraud and questionable loan products than the sub-$500k market, no?
 
and just pick an address in Ladera



<a href="http://www.ttc.ocgov.com/tcweb/search_page.asp">and go here</a>





heres an example of a 3/2 with 1600 sq. ft.



Tax

Type Description/Service Agency Phone No. Tax Rate

(82-360) Value Base Amount

(Rate x Value)





A1 BASIC LEVY RATE 1.00000 $377,010.00 $3,770.10

A1 METRO WATER D-MWDOC 0.00430 $377,010.00 $16.20

A4 SANTA MARG ID#4 BOND 0.06270 $204,943.00 $128.49

A4 SANTA MARG ID4D BOND 0.03120 $204,943.00 $63.95

*** SPECIAL ASSESSMENT USER FEES***

BA MOSQ,FIRE ANT ASSMT (800)273-5167 $3.06

B3 VECTOR CONTROL CHG (800)273-5167 $0.66

C7 MWD WATER STDBY CHG (866)807-6864 $10.08

J4 SMWD ID #4 D/S AQD (949)459-6420 $16.71

Q2 MELLO-ROOS Q2 (949)955-1500 $674.42

T6 MELLO ROOS T6 (949)955-1500 $1,673.61

Total Tax: $6,357.28

CLOSE



looks like its basically about a 1.1% tax rate



then about 2350 in special assesments
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1224932140]and just pick an address in Ladera



<a href="http://www.ttc.ocgov.com/tcweb/search_page.asp">and go here</a>





heres an example of a 3/2 with 1600 sq. ft.



Tax

Type Description/Service Agency Phone No. Tax Rate

(82-360) Value Base Amount

(Rate x Value)





A1 BASIC LEVY RATE 1.00000 $377,010.00 $3,770.10

A1 METRO WATER D-MWDOC 0.00430 $377,010.00 $16.20

A4 SANTA MARG ID#4 BOND 0.06270 $204,943.00 $128.49

A4 SANTA MARG ID4D BOND 0.03120 $204,943.00 $63.95

*** SPECIAL ASSESSMENT USER FEES***

BA MOSQ,FIRE ANT ASSMT (800)273-5167 $3.06

B3 VECTOR CONTROL CHG (800)273-5167 $0.66

C7 MWD WATER STDBY CHG (866)807-6864 $10.08

J4 SMWD ID #4 D/S AQD (949)459-6420 $16.71

Q2 MELLO-ROOS Q2 (949)955-1500 $674.42

T6 MELLO ROOS T6 (949)955-1500 $1,673.61

Total Tax: $6,357.28

CLOSE



looks like its basically about a 1.1% tax rate



then about 2350 in special assesments</blockquote>


Awesome! Thanks much for that site, very helpful! All in all it appears to be about 1.5-1.7% tax+mello roos. Not too bad, I was expecting much worse. (For comparison, the place I was looking to purchase out here was about 1.9% tax + mello roos). I'm willing the swallow the necessary evil of mello roos up to a certain extent.
 
[quote author="eclipxe" date=1224933811][quote author="24inIrvine" date=1224932140]and just pick an address in Ladera



<a href="http://www.ttc.ocgov.com/tcweb/search_page.asp">and go here</a>





heres an example of a 3/2 with 1600 sq. ft.



Tax

Type Description/Service Agency Phone No. Tax Rate

(82-360) Value Base Amount

(Rate x Value)





A1 BASIC LEVY RATE 1.00000 $377,010.00 $3,770.10

A1 METRO WATER D-MWDOC 0.00430 $377,010.00 $16.20

A4 SANTA MARG ID#4 BOND 0.06270 $204,943.00 $128.49

A4 SANTA MARG ID4D BOND 0.03120 $204,943.00 $63.95

*** SPECIAL ASSESSMENT USER FEES***

BA MOSQ,FIRE ANT ASSMT (800)273-5167 $3.06

B3 VECTOR CONTROL CHG (800)273-5167 $0.66

C7 MWD WATER STDBY CHG (866)807-6864 $10.08

J4 SMWD ID #4 D/S AQD (949)459-6420 $16.71

Q2 MELLO-ROOS Q2 (949)955-1500 $674.42

T6 MELLO ROOS T6 (949)955-1500 $1,673.61

Total Tax: $6,357.28

CLOSE



looks like its basically about a 1.1% tax rate



then about 2350 in special assesments</blockquote>


Awesome! Thanks much for that site, very helpful! All in all it appears to be about 1.5-1.7% tax+mello roos. Not too bad, I was expecting much worse. (For comparison, the place I was looking to purchase out here was about 1.9% tax + mello roos). I'm willing the swallow the necessary evil of mello roos up to a certain extent.</blockquote>


I think you are confused on property taxes and mello roos. The property cited has a 1.1% base plus about $2350 in mello roos for a total annual tax of $6357.28. Divide that $6357.28 by the assessed value of $377,010 and you get your "total" tax percentage of 1.69%. I have never heard of a property tax base of 1.9% plus the mello roos anywhere in Cali. That would put you way over 2% total in a heartbeat. If you were looking in Ladera, most likely the 1.9% was the total taxes and it included the mello roos. Either way, the property taxes there are ridiculous, and you add in the fact of buying a condo means you are paying for master association and sub-association HOA dues, then it becomes more ridiculous.



Aside from the high taxes, and the feeling you get driving around there, have you hung out with the people that live there? I mean, there are some good people there, but they are few and far between.
 
Ladera Ranch is a beautiful community. It represents the cutting edge in master-plan community design. This community will age well, and it will be a desirable address in OC over the long term. That being said, right now, it is a disaster. It reminds me of Quail Hill, Woodbury, Portola Springs and Northpark II here in Irvine. Every homeowner in those communities is or will be underwater. It must be a very depressing neighborhood when everyone there is struggling with huge payments on a property worth far less than they paid.



If you buy in Ladera Ranch before 2010, your property values will decline. If you buy there in the next 6 months, your property values will decline significantly. You will most likely see the loss of your entire downpayment, and you will go underwater. Eventually, in perhaps 10-15 years, property values will rise up to current pricing. If you are looking to stay in the property for the very long term, you may not lose money, but on an inflation adjusted basis, you almost certainly will.



Before you buy, please read the post <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/timing-does-matter/">Timing Does Matter</a>. You need to fully understand the financial ramifications of buying at inflated prices.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1224940777]



Aside from the high taxes, and the feeling you get driving around there, have you hung out with the people that live there? I mean, there are some good people there, but they are few and far between.</blockquote>


I would love to have Tamara from Real Housewives living next door!
 
And no matter where you are in Ladera, there is always a view of high tension wires.

Even when you drive to a multi-million dollar property you can't get away from the metal views of the wires.

They just stand out like a sore thumb to me.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1224940777]

I think you are confused on property taxes and mello roos. The property cited has a 1.1% base plus about $2350 in mello roos for a total annual tax of $6357.28. Divide that $6357.28 by the assessed value of $377,010 and you get your "total" tax percentage of 1.69%. I have never heard of a property tax base of 1.9% plus the mello roos anywhere in Cali. That would put you way over 2% total in a heartbeat. If you were looking in Ladera, most likely the 1.9% was the total taxes and it included the mello roos. Either way, the property taxes there are ridiculous, and you add in the fact of buying a condo means you are paying for master association and sub-association HOA dues, then it becomes more ridiculous.



Aside from the high taxes, and the feeling you get driving around there, have you hung out with the people that live there? I mean, there are some good people there, but they are few and far between.</blockquote>


Thanks graph - I should have said "(tax + mello roos)" - I'm saying 1.5-1.7, 1.9% "total" tax rate include assessments.



As far as buying a condo vs. SFR - I'm DEFINITELY hoping that 3/2 SFR's are under $425k in 10 months, but I'm being realistic and doing a worst-case analysis right now.



I haven't necessarily hung out with the people that live there, but I did spend some time walking around Mercantile West and East and the people were pretty friendly. I asked for directions and how people liked the area and everyone was very happy to talk to me about the area. It's funny how different areas have these perceptions of the "people" that live there. Out here in Temecula everyone warned me that the area I was moving to was full of "snobby", stuck-up people. I've found that to be exactly the opposite, with some of the most friendly and humble neighbors I've seen. Maybe I'm just a friendly person!? :-)
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224974017]Ladera Ranch is a beautiful community. It represents the cutting edge in master-plan community design. This community will age well, and it will be a desirable address in OC over the long term. That being said, right now, it is a disaster. It reminds me of Quail Hill, Woodbury, Portola Springs and Northpark II here in Irvine. Every homeowner in those communities is or will be underwater. It must be a very depressing neighborhood when everyone there is struggling with huge payments on a property worth far less than they paid.



If you buy in Ladera Ranch before 2010, your property values will decline. If you buy there in the next 6 months, your property values will decline significantly. You will most likely see the loss of your entire downpayment, and you will go underwater. Eventually, in perhaps 10-15 years, property values will rise up to current pricing. If you are looking to stay in the property for the very long term, you may not lose money, but on an inflation adjusted basis, you almost certainly will.



Before you buy, please read the post <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/timing-does-matter/">Timing Does Matter</a>. You need to fully understand the financial ramifications of buying at inflated prices.</blockquote>


Thanks IR! I definitely respect your opinion (and everyone else here on IHB! You guys made my friends and family hate my newfound bearish nature. )



I'm definitely not looking to buy in the next 6 months - late 2009/early 2010 would be my target. I do plan to spend at least 5-7 years in the same place and would look at keeping it as a rental if I were to move up. With the numbers I'm working with, we're almost at rental parity (assuming rents stay stable) and another 10-15% decline will make it a solid buy (vs rent - including HOA/tax/mello roos).



The only thing I'm worried about is the next administration and their stance on the housing "crisis"...Obama's 3 month foreclosure halt - do you think those underwater in Ladera facing foreclosure would pool 3 months of payments to get back ahead and stop foreclosure? Does that even make sense?



And McCain...I'm just scared at how out of touch he is with the housing crisis. Stopping the price decline by buying bad mortgages and letting people stay in their homes.



How would either of these policies affect the losses in Ladera over the next year? Does anyone even think McCain or Obama would be able to pull off either one?
 
<blockquote>Does anyone even think McCain or Obama would be able to pull off either one? </blockquote>
Ah, I see you haven't found the <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewforum/18/">Politics</a> section of this blog.

You should check it out.

Lots of discussions over there.
 
[quote author="CalGal" date=1224982362]<blockquote>Does anyone even think McCain or Obama would be able to pull off either one? </blockquote>
Ah, I see you haven't found the <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewforum/18/">Politics</a> section of this blog.

You should check it out.

Lots of discussions over there.</blockquote>


There are discussions in the politics section? Where? Which thread? I thought that section was for bitching about the candidate you are against and the occasional funny youtube or SNL video? Am I missing something CalGal?
 
Aside from the high taxes, and the feeling you get driving around there, have you hung out with the people that live there? I mean, there are some good people there, but they are few and far between.</blockquote>


Wow is that a close minded statement. One of the few times I have ever actually taken offense to a statement made on this board.



And the power lines are probably visible from about half of the community. So if they are in issue for you, then just pick one of the parts of the community where they aren't around. Some of those townhomes and small detached homes by the Mercantile West center are a ways away from the power lines.



As for the original thread question, I would definitely wait until at least this time next year and then re-assess. There is no risk in waiting, and there is significant risk in jumping in now. The market is working in your favor.
 
[quote author="Joe33" date=1225162267]Aside from the high taxes, and the feeling you get driving around there, have you hung out with the people that live there? I mean, there are some good people there, but they are few and far between.



Wow is that a close minded statement. One of the few times I have ever actually taken offense to a statement made on this board.



And the power lines are probably visible from about half of the community. So if they are in issue for you, then just pick one of the parts of the community where they aren't around. Some of those townhomes and small detached homes by the Mercantile West center are a ways away from the power lines.



As for the original thread question, I would definitely wait until at least this time next year and then re-assess. There is no risk in waiting, and there is significant risk in jumping in now. The market is working in your favor.</blockquote>
They may be visible from only half the community when you are at home, but you'll see them just driving into Ladera Ranch.

I drive by Ladera almost every day, and I see the high tension wires from different entrances.
 
There's a canyon that divides Mission Viejo and Ladera Ranch, the high tension power lines run along the edge on Ladera's side. The lesser expensive townhome communities and senior communities are right next to the power lines.



If you drive further into the community, you'd be further away from the power lines.
 
Regarding Ladera Ranch



I like it. Especially Covenant Hills. We live in Newport Coast now and for 1.4 mill you can get about 4000 sq feet on a 10K foot lot. In Newport Coast you get 2500 sq ft and a claustrophobic yard.





My wife and I have looked around Ladera for a few months. We don't find a lot of inventory in the price range 1.1-1.5 mill. At least not as much as we expected. My theory is that there are plenty of homeowners underwater big time. But they're able to keep paying their mortgage as opposed to selling at a huge loss or getting foreclosed on. They may have bought their house for 1.9 and now it's worth 1.2 but that doesn't mean they're putting it on the market. Their choice is either to lose 700,000 immediately vs riding it out and keep making their mortgage payment.
 
My suspicion is that most of those Ladera buyers didn't pay cash, but instead have jumbo ARMS. some may even have expiring teaser rate optionARMS.



I predict that the inventory on the MLS will increase significantly over the next two years as these reset.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1225267102]My suspicion is that most of those Ladera buyers didn't pay cash, but instead have jumbo ARMS. some may even have expiring teaser rate optionARMS.



I predict that the inventory on the MLS will increase significantly over the next two years as these reset.</blockquote>






So do you think most of the new inventory will be foreclosures? I'm waiting for some more inventory, like in Arboledo and Encantada.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1225267102]My suspicion is that most of those Ladera buyers didn't pay cash, but instead have jumbo ARMS. some may even have expiring teaser rate optionARMS.



I predict that the inventory on the MLS will increase significantly over the next two years as these reset.</blockquote>


My suspicion is not. If you're a move-up buyer, sure, you may only be in your house for 4 years or so. Why not get an 5/1 arm?



I doubt a lot of the people buying 4,000 sq.ft houses are thinking about the next upgrade right around the corner... They probably did fixed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top