Just bought a house in Woodbury

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
The issue has nothing to do with price being at a bottom. You are putting over 100k of your own money into an asset and your monthly housing obligations are increasing <u>substantially</u>. It will take you IMO at least 7 years to get that down payment back through price appreciation. If you are comfortable with a large monthly payment and don't care about earning interest on over 100k, then maybe it is time to buy for you.
 
The traditional process of buy the house and then have the baby, just sounds too risky to me in this economy. If you are distracted from fatherhood by your loss of equity, your debt, the high childcare costs and your wife's new interest in staying home to raise the kid or kids (things change fast with kids), you will not be able to be the father you always wanted to be. My husband read to my daughters everynight starting when they were about a year old. It makes all the difference.



I grew up in Irvine and my husband still works in Irvine, but we bought a house in Riverside in 1985. I worked while the kids were little and paid off the house. I have been a stay at home mom for the last 10 years and can see the results in my kids.



I just saw the Villages at the Spectrum. I wish I could live there. Looks more fun then that half finished Woodbury. This is just my opinion. Good luck with everything.
 
It appears you have your mind made up catchme. Just wanted to make sure you understand that 1) you are likely going to be spending more each month purchasing vs. renting and 2) you will lose at least some portion of your down payment as the market softens...



I ran your monthly numbers and came up with this:



$417K mortgage @ 6% $2,085

Deductible prop taxes $459

Non-deductible MRs $320

HOA $205

Insurance $50

Maintenance $200

Subtotal $3,319

Tax deduction @ 30% ($763)

Foregone interest on $118K $255

Net Expense $2,810



These are monthly numbers obviously. I only considered the interest portion of the $417K at outset. Some will tell you that maintenance should be much higher than the provision I added per month. I bought a new Cal Pac condo in 2001 and have found that I have spent around that per month over my seven years of ownership when I look back over everything. I put tax savings are at 30% but if you are shifting from standard deduction to itemizing, your tax benefit is not likely to be quite that high. If you are already itemizing, it would be more like 35% though...



I'm quite sure you can rent something bigger and just as nice for $2800... I would think you can rent a newer 3/2 with that amount of square footage for around $2500-2600 per month actually.



You talk of no one being able to predict the future. Do you actually believe the market is at or new bottom? I would think you must if you are willing to spend more each month to own. Even if the market only heads down another 10%, your place would go to $480K and then probably take 3-4 years to get back to your purchase price. You'd be five years in, back to even, but needing to pay $30K in commissions to sell the place and move-up.



If mortgage rates shoot up, as they likely are, or prices go down 20-30%, like they could, you will be stuck in that place for quite a long time. Seems like a high risk to take for something that isn't even going to save you bucks every month...
 
Hey catch, did you make on offer on this Cortile unit by any chance?



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1088286">92 Chantilly</a>



It's 200sf bigger and listed at $549K. Wouldn't they take $535K? If you came with your agent and offered $540K and had your agent kick 2% back to you that would be $529K...



Just curious why someone would willingly spend $535K for 1275sf when they could probably get 1490sf in the same tract for the same or less money. The one listed at $549K appears to have distressed hardwood, upgraded appliances, 6" base, crown moulding, etc. Does all that come in your $535K price too? What about landscaping for the yard/patio area? Is that in your $535K?
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1207571688]Hey catch, did you make on offer on this Cortile unit by any chance?



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1088286">92 Chantilly</a>



It's 200sf bigger and listed at $549K. Wouldn't they take $535K? If you came with your agent and offered $540K and had your agent kick 2% back to you that would be $529K...



Just curious why someone would willingly spend $535K for 1275sf when they could probably get 1490sf in the same tract for the same or less money. The one listed at $549K appears to have distressed hardwood, upgraded appliances, 6" base, crown moulding, etc. Does all that come in your $535K price too? What about landscaping for the yard/patio area? Is that in your $535K?</blockquote>


Yeah thats the plan 4 I was telling him about. Rediculous to pay more for the plan 3 without any upgrades.



Also, does anyone get the idea that the realtor is just sick of listing that unit at that price? Used to have a nice long description with lots of exclamation points....hehe
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1207571688]Hey catch, did you make on offer on this Cortile unit by any chance?



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1088286">92 Chantilly</a>



It's 200sf bigger and listed at $549K. Wouldn't they take $535K? If you came with your agent and offered $540K and had your agent kick 2% back to you that would be $529K...



Just curious why someone would willingly spend $535K for 1275sf when they could probably get 1490sf in the same tract for the same or less money. The one listed at $549K appears to have distressed hardwood, upgraded appliances, 6" base, crown moulding, etc. Does all that come in your $535K price too? What about landscaping for the yard/patio area? Is that in your $535K?</blockquote>


ipoplaya,



We checked out this house 2 weeks ago. We did not like it. This house violated some Feng shui principles (front door line directly with the back door, stair faces front door directly) which is a no no for me. In addition, there's something about the layout of the house that my wife does not like.



The house that I am gonna buy is one of the 2 model homes so land scaping is already in for patio area.
 
LOL catch. You'll always have "Feng shui made me do it" to fall back on...



If 92 Chantilly, or one like it, sells for $525K, the resale value of the place you are buying will be $485Kish assuming you have similar upgrades. Few rationale buyers are ever willing to pay a premium to buy a smaller unit. That is just not how real estate normally works... Your 10% loss is already baked in my friend based on soon-to-be comps. There will be REOs of the model you are buying this year, and they'll take you down another 5-10%.



While you may not think people can predict the future, I can almost guarantee that your condo will be worth less than your loan by no later than the end of 2009. I wasn't so sure until I saw 92 Chantilly, but they have been sitting at $549K for many months now.
 
92 Chantilly is a Short Sale, range priced from $549,900 - $624,876. Info says offers below the range will not be given a response and offers within the range will be given a counter. I think the bank is looking for a specific price for the short sale to go through. It's also been postponed from trustee sale, so it's hard to know what will end up happening.
 
newbie,

I you need somebody to validate your purchase, you are not gonna find it here, I hate to be harsh but that's like proposing to marry somebody that all your firends hate and ask your friends what they think later...
 
and I do think that if you bought it because you love the home and money is not an option, more power to you, I wish I was in that position....
 
[quote author="IrvineWorker" date=1207576110]92 Chantilly is a Short Sale, range priced from $549,900 - $624,876. Info says offers below the range will not be given a response and offers within the range will be given a counter. I think the bank is looking for a specific price for the short sale to go through. It's also been postponed from trustee sale, so it's hard to know what will end up happening.</blockquote>
+1



I forgot to mention about this. My agent said she tried to pull some info (tax owe, # missing payments...) from selling agent but this person stayed pretty tight lips about it. Who knows what's gonna happen.
 
[quote author="catchmeifyoucan" date=1207612079][quote author="IrvineWorker" date=1207576110]92 Chantilly is a Short Sale, range priced from $549,900 - $624,876. Info says offers below the range will not be given a response and offers within the range will be given a counter. I think the bank is looking for a specific price for the short sale to go through. It's also been postponed from trustee sale, so it's hard to know what will end up happening.</blockquote>
+1



I forgot to mention about this. My agent said she tried to pull some info (tax owe, # missing payments...) from selling agent but this person stayed pretty tight lips about it. Who knows what's gonna happen.</blockquote>


Looks like 106 Chantilly is also probably the same model, pre-foreclosure with NOD filed in February. First Franklin is going to end up owning that one and they are in a positon to drop prices and move property quick.



The rest of Irvine is not selling at 2005 prices. Cortile shouldn't be either... If it is now, it won't be for long once the REOs come through and the builder is no longer marketing the tract.
 
i only know of one person that's purchased a model before and their experience was mixed. sure you get all the upgrades but my friend also had a load of problems with shoddy construction. not surprised if models built during the bubble yrs were thrown up as quickly as possible with an emphasis on the cosmetics.



might have been an isolated case. anyone else have first or second-hand experience with living in models?
 
Again, this is literally the tip of the iceberg.



<span style="color: red;">IRVINE HAS NOT SEEN THEIR OWN "MORTGAGE MELTDOWN" YET.</span>



Repeat.



<span style="color: red;">IVRINE HAS NOT SEEN THEIR OWN "MORTGAGE MELTDOWN" YET.</span>



This will be occuring over the next 3 years, and the words 'intrest only ARM' and 'option ARM' will be all over the local media.



This is not like the subprime mess. There is no happy ending to this one. And there is NO stopping it.



Done.



If you buy, at least buy it knowing the truth. The property value is going to plummet. It cannot be avoided.



If you like it and can afford it, buy it. I myself would rent for at least another 2 years (probably 3-4) before buying... why pay $100,000+ above what you could in a few years?



At least you will walk into it informed, and not clueless! :)



Best of luck,



Masterofdamoney
 
catch - good luck on your purchase. if everybody that bought within ??? had posted here, they

would be getting the same responses.



i dont understand why you're validating your purchase though. you gave all your financials and

it proves you can afford it. you also stated that this is what you and your wife wanted and

it's taken you a lot of research to get here.



you're right about the argument of the % of house price decline, nobody really knows.

so it cant be factored into your decision.



everything here is about affordability, you can so JUST DO IT!
 
I agree. Congratulations catchme. I am also buying a place so I know how you are feeling. I am getting a lot of weird and blank stares from relatives and close friends when I tell them that I am buying a place. The funny thing is that I am the same one who told them to not buy a place two years ago.
 
[quote author="catchmeifyoucan" date=1207555896]

There's a saying: One should only buy a house to live in if the moment is right for himself, not based on the market, not someone else's opinion.

Can you really predict when the market hits bottom? How can you be so sure? Predictions are just predictions. Nothing more nothing less.

If we all can predict the future, i guess you and I should be somewhere in tropical paradise enjoy our vacation.</blockquote>


Did you not post on this forum for people's opinion?
 
Skek,



I can understand why he is asking. Even though I am about to close my escrow soon, I am still curious about what others think. I am a first time buyer so that could be the reason why. Nonetheless, it is simply human nature to just always wonder and think about "if, coulda, woulda, and should've."
 
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