Johns Creek Homes and Real Estate

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I like to compare the appreciation performance of the LA and the Atlanta Market. From 2012 - 2018, the two markets have performed similarly to one another. 2016, Atlanta's appreciation was slightly better than LA, and in 2017, LA's appreciation was slightly better than Atlanta. In 2018, the performance is the same at 1.7% appreciation from Jan 2018 to March 2018.

Atlanta is now 4.9% above the previous peak and Los Angeles is now 2.3% above the previous peak.




LA_Atlanta_Comparison.jpg
 
Top Ten School Ranking in Georgia: Elementary, Middle, High School. Highlighted green are the school clusters of my primary residence. High schools ranked among (420) in Georiga, Middle Schools ranked among (539), and Elementary Schools ranked among (1205)

Source: www.schooldigger.com

schoolcluster.jpg
 
Demographics Shift in last 10 years: Johns Creek Elementary, Riverwatch Middle, and Lambert High School.

Source: www.schooldigger.com

schoolcluster_graph.jpg


 
Since we all know real estate is cyclical... when do you think the next dip in Johns Creek will be?

And how are you protecting your assets?
 
IHO, I see a lot of similarities to the Nashville housing market here in Atlanta, except just at a much larger scale as we are the largest city in the south. The inventory levels in Metro Atlanta are extremely low at this time hovering around the 20k levels. You have to also look at the affordability scale between the median home price / median house hold income. Irvine is between 7-8, Bay Area is between 13-14, and the metro Atlanta is around 3-4. Think of this is a P/E ratio for real estate. I am extremely bullish of the future of the Atlanta market. I believe the best is yet to come in the future vs behind us.

inventory.jpg
 
Where To Invest In Housing In 2018 : Atlanta Rank #7 according to Forbes

1. Orlando, Fla.

Average home price: $247,550
3-year population growth: 7.6%
2-year job growth: 7.1%
1-year home price growth: 9%
3-year price growth forecast: 35%

2. Provo-Orem, Utah

Average home price: $266,169
3-year population growth: 7.2%
2-year job growth: 6.7%
1-year home price growth: 10%
3-year price growth forecast: 31%

3. Jacksonville, Fla.

Average home price: $247,809
3-year population growth: 5.9%
2-year job growth: 6.1%
1-year home price growth: 8%
3-year price growth forecast: 20%

4. Raleigh-Durham, N.C.

Average home price: $274,980
3-year population growth: 4.9%
2-year job growth: 5.8%
1-year home price growth: 8%
3-year price growth forecast: 26%
Homes are undervalued by 3% compared to the historic ratio of price and local income.

5. Ogden-Clearfield, Utah
Average home price: $246,251
3-year population growth: 5.1%
2-year job growth: 5.7%
1-year home price growth: 10%
3-year price growth forecast: 29%


6. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, Tenn.
Average home price: $277,842
3-year population growth: 6.1%
2-year job growth: 5.5%
1-year home price growth: 10%
3-year price growth forecast: 27%

7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga.

Average home price: $234,249
3-year population growth: 4.9%
2-year job growth: 5.1%
1-year home price growth: 8%
3-year price growth forecast: 24%
Homes are undervalued by 7% compared to the historic ratio of price and local income.

Source:https://www.forbes.com/sites/samant...re-to-invest-in-housing-in-2018/#88a2b50627eb
 
What's the average commission rate over there to sell a home?  5%?  6%?  It's basically 4.5% to 5% for most realtors in Irvine now.
 
Sorry Trojan,
Didn't see this question until now. The average commission rate here is between 5 - 6%. Keep in mind that average home prices in Johns Creek is the 1/3 the cost of Irvine.

USCTrojanCPA said:
What's the average commission rate over there to sell a home?  5%?  6%?  It's basically 4.5% to 5% for most realtors in Irvine now.
Click to expand...
 
I still think Atlanta is in the running for HQ-2, although it may end up being Virginia. Any speculation on what an HQ-2 bump might be on homes in the area?

My .02c

SGIP
 
Yes. I believe Atlanta is still in the running for HQ2 Amazon. I will be even more excited if Atlanta wins Apple's HQ-2. Rumors are saying that Apple is leaning toward our sister city Raleigh, NC. Winning Amazon is definitely going to be positive for long term home values here.
https://www.inc.com/lisa-calhoun/wh...n-quest-for-apples-headquarters-in-south.htmlhttps://www.ajc.com/business/georgia-possible-contender-for-apple-expansion/pCfPDXz62ahhHULYI2QgWN/

Soylent Green Is People said:
I still think Atlanta is in the running for HQ-2, although it may end up being Virginia. Any speculation on what an HQ-2 bump might be on homes in the area?

My .02c

SGIP
Click to expand...
 
Here is the updated real estate data set for the Lambert High School Cluster. Lambert High School is ranked #5 among 429 high schools. Lambert is the best high school in Forsyth County and I will continue to update the market analysis for this high school cluster.
Georgia High School Rankings:

1. Gwinnett School of Math and Sciences : Gwinnett County
2. Columbus High School : Muscogee Country
3. Walton High School : Cobb County
4. Dekalb Early College Academy : Dekalb County
5. Lambert High School : #1 High School in Forsyth County
6. Lassiter High School : Cobb County
7. Pope High School : Cobb County
8. Davidson Magnet School : Richmond County
9. North Gwinnett High School : Gwinnett County
10. McIntosh High School : Fayette County

Source: https://www.schooldigger.com/go/GA/schoolrank.aspx?level=3

We are seeing normal appreciation in home prices with stable days on the market of 70 days. The median home price in the Lambert HS cluster has rose to $450,000 from $425,000. There are currently 150 SFRs listed between the range of $289,900 to $2,250,000 in the Lambert HS Cluster and 18 Townhomes ranging from $298,000 - $559,900. I will continue to update this thread.

In 2018, 610 homes in the Lambert HS Cluster closed with a total gross sale of $302,809,789
In 2017, 642 homes in the Lambert HS Cluster closed with a total gross sale of $304,068,690
In 2016, 670 homes in the Lambert HS Cluster closed with a total gross sale of $301,843,397
In 2015, 657 homes in the Lambert HS Cluster closed with a total gross sale of $291,350,658

Lambert HS Cluster 2018
610 Homes sold in 2018
Lowest Sale in James Burgess ($199,000)
Highest Sale in Luberon ($1,830,000)
Median Day on Market: 70 days
Median Sale Price $450,000
Median PPSF = $134.64

Lambert HS Cluster 2017
642 Homes sold in 2017
Lowest Sale in Settlers Cove ($200,000)
Highest Sale in St Marlo ($2,050,000)
Median DOM: 71 days
Median Sale Price $425,000
Median PPSF = $129.00

Lambert HS Cluster 2016
670 Homes sold in 2016
Lowest Sale in Shady Shores ($103,000)
Highest Sale in St Marlo ($1,460,000)
Median DOM: 70 days
Median Sale Price $417,050
Median PPSF = $124.54

Lambert HS Cluster 2015
657 Homes sold in 2015
Lowest Sale in Burgess Mill ($168,000)
Highest Sale in St Marlo ($2,000,000)
Median Sale Price $394,000
Median DOM: 72 days
Average PPSF = $121.75

Lambert HS Cluster 2014
576 Homes sold in 2014
Lowest Sale in Aberdeen ($187,500)
Highest Sale in St Marlo ($2,300,000)
Average Sale Price $429,207

Lambert HS Cluster 2013
571 Homes sold in 2013
Lowest Sale in Jerry Samples ($150,000)
Highest Sale in St Marlo ($1,448,150)
Average Sale Price $394,775

SUBDIVISION DATA IN THE LAMBERT HS CLUSTER 2018.

St Marlo Country Club:
Homes Sold in 2018: 58
Gross Sales: $40,933,000
High Prices Sold: $1,726,000
Lowest Price Sold: $488,100
Median Home Price: $746,250
Median Sold Price Off Asking : 95.0%
Median Days on the Market : 89 Days

Laurel Springs
Homes Sold in 2018: 44
Gross Sales: $31,410,585
High Prices Sold: $1,150,000
Lowest Price Sold: $482,500
Median Home Price: $689,500
Median Sold Price Off Asking : 95.0%
Median Days on the Market : 108 Days

Olde Atlanta Club
Homes Sold in 2018: 35
Gross Sales: $16,872,300
High Prices Sold: $825,000
Lowest Price Sold: $377,500
Median Home Price: $462,500
Median Sold Price Off Asking : 98.0%
Median Days on the Market : 53 Days
Median Year Built: 1994
Median PPSF: $135.5

Champions Run
Homes Sold in 2018: 24
Gross Sales: $11,425,309
High Prices Sold: $570,840
Lowest Price Sold: $396,000
Median Home Price: $485,000
Median Sold Price Off Asking : 95.0%
Median Days on the Market : 77 Days
Median Year Built: 2016
Median PPSF: $127.2

Riverbrooke
Homes Sold in 2018: 24
Gross Sales: $11,425,309
High Prices Sold: $342,000
Lowest Price Sold: $277,000
Median Home Price: $312,000
Median Sold Price Off Asking : 98.0%
Median Days on the Market : 62 Days
Median Year Built: 2005
Median PPSF: $111.19
 
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