ocprince_IHB
New member
BTW minimum bid on his $125K 2nd was 133K back then, and now it's $136K . Looks like he hasn't paid down any of his principal.
Is there any way prices can appreciate from here?
- Thread starter IrvineRenter_IHB
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
ocprince_IHB
New member
One last question graphrix. If I were to offer a lowball offer for Taft what do you think would be a good number? I have excellent credit, good income (pre-qualification letter in hand) and more than 20% down at the asking price. thanks again.
graphrix_IHB
New member
ocprince - The one on Amate has a heloc for his second so it hasn't changed and you are right he will probably pull through. Good research on your part.
As for Taft I would have to see the place in person and figure out what the costs for the upgrades would be. Like the paint, carpet and wallpaper and I am sure there are a few more things just to make it a little more modern. Depending on how much you really like it I would offer -10% plus costs of upgrades and use the busy street to justify the -10%. Personally I don't think it is worth much more. If you really really love it then skip the -10% the lot size adds value. Here are the comps so you can check out what they look like. Sorry for the crappy format.
No. Address Date Price $/SF Bld/Area RM/BR/Bth YB Lot Area Pool Proxim.
Subject Property / / N/A N/A 2,545 /4/2.0 1968 19,005 SF
1 18801 RAGAN CIR 01/25/2007 $1,721,000 $424 4058 9/4/3.5 1976 1.600 AC P .38Mi.
2 18171 CHARTER RD 12/28/2006 $1,451,000 $465 3121 9/5/3.5 1963 20,200 SF P .43Mi.
3 10252 FLINTRIDGE DR 12/28/2006 $1,100,000 $277 3971 9/4/2.5 1971 19,774 SF P .34Mi.
4 18052 JAMES RD 12/20/2006 $1,460,000 $496 2941 9/5/3.5 1963 20,200 SF .43Mi.
5 18512 VIA BRAVO 12/01/2006 $1,000,000 $345 2896 9/4/2.5 1966 20,020 SF P .17Mi.
6 18562 MARION WAY 08/15/2006 $1,199,000 $293 4093 10/5/3.0 1973 21,875 SF P .48Mi.
7 9962 BIXBY CIR 08/11/2006 $1,194,000 $353 3386 9/5/3.0 1977 20,972 SF .19Mi.
8 10202 CORAL TREE CIR 06/14/2006 $1,550,000 $357 4347 10/5/3.5 1980 22,950 SF .29Mi.
9 18221 JAMES RD 06/13/2006 $2,100,000 $687 3055 9/5/3.5 1963 20,200 SF .37Mi.
10 18202 SHARON LN 06/06/2006 $1,150,000 $741 1552 5/2/1.5 1949 20,204 SF .41Mi.
11 10181 CENTER DR 04/26/2006 $995,000 $498 1999 7/4/2.0 1901 15,137 SF P .27Mi.
12 9502 MARY CIR 04/05/2006 $1,260,000 $385 3271 9/5/3.0 1974 20,535 SF .54Mi.
13 18232 HILLCREST CIR 03/31/2006 $1,210,000 $511 2370 10/4/3.0 1969 19,040 SF P .21Mi.
14 18451 SERRANO AVE 03/30/2006 $2,137,500 $776 2755 9/5/3.0 1968 20,056 SF .15Mi.
15 18302 HILLCREST AVE 03/28/2006 $1,200,000 $476 2523 7/3/2.0 1966 20,003 SF P .14Mi.
As for Taft I would have to see the place in person and figure out what the costs for the upgrades would be. Like the paint, carpet and wallpaper and I am sure there are a few more things just to make it a little more modern. Depending on how much you really like it I would offer -10% plus costs of upgrades and use the busy street to justify the -10%. Personally I don't think it is worth much more. If you really really love it then skip the -10% the lot size adds value. Here are the comps so you can check out what they look like. Sorry for the crappy format.
No. Address Date Price $/SF Bld/Area RM/BR/Bth YB Lot Area Pool Proxim.
Subject Property / / N/A N/A 2,545 /4/2.0 1968 19,005 SF
1 18801 RAGAN CIR 01/25/2007 $1,721,000 $424 4058 9/4/3.5 1976 1.600 AC P .38Mi.
2 18171 CHARTER RD 12/28/2006 $1,451,000 $465 3121 9/5/3.5 1963 20,200 SF P .43Mi.
3 10252 FLINTRIDGE DR 12/28/2006 $1,100,000 $277 3971 9/4/2.5 1971 19,774 SF P .34Mi.
4 18052 JAMES RD 12/20/2006 $1,460,000 $496 2941 9/5/3.5 1963 20,200 SF .43Mi.
5 18512 VIA BRAVO 12/01/2006 $1,000,000 $345 2896 9/4/2.5 1966 20,020 SF P .17Mi.
6 18562 MARION WAY 08/15/2006 $1,199,000 $293 4093 10/5/3.0 1973 21,875 SF P .48Mi.
7 9962 BIXBY CIR 08/11/2006 $1,194,000 $353 3386 9/5/3.0 1977 20,972 SF .19Mi.
8 10202 CORAL TREE CIR 06/14/2006 $1,550,000 $357 4347 10/5/3.5 1980 22,950 SF .29Mi.
9 18221 JAMES RD 06/13/2006 $2,100,000 $687 3055 9/5/3.5 1963 20,200 SF .37Mi.
10 18202 SHARON LN 06/06/2006 $1,150,000 $741 1552 5/2/1.5 1949 20,204 SF .41Mi.
11 10181 CENTER DR 04/26/2006 $995,000 $498 1999 7/4/2.0 1901 15,137 SF P .27Mi.
12 9502 MARY CIR 04/05/2006 $1,260,000 $385 3271 9/5/3.0 1974 20,535 SF .54Mi.
13 18232 HILLCREST CIR 03/31/2006 $1,210,000 $511 2370 10/4/3.0 1969 19,040 SF P .21Mi.
14 18451 SERRANO AVE 03/30/2006 $2,137,500 $776 2755 9/5/3.0 1968 20,056 SF .15Mi.
15 18302 HILLCREST AVE 03/28/2006 $1,200,000 $476 2523 7/3/2.0 1966 20,003 SF P .14Mi.
ocprince_IHB
New member
thanks again graphrix. That list is very useful. I didn't know Flintridge and 18512 Via Bravo sold for so little. They were listed much higher if I remember correctly. In fact, there was another home on Via Bravo that was for sale during that time. Apparently, it hadn't sold and it is no longer on the market so I guess the Flipper is living in it. If it were completely up to me I would wait until the end of the year to pull the trigger but I'm getting the pressure from the wife. However, I don't blame her b/c right now we are living in a condo with 3 levels. Chasing a 14 month around is tough enough, let alone being pregnant on top of it. I guess my best bet at this point is try to lowball an offer. When do you think you will be back in the market again?
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
Anybody want to provide a rational bullish argument?
bigmoneysalsa_IHB
New member
<p>How about this?*</p>
<p>There has been a nationwide housing bubble, but to a large extent that bubble has masked genuine fundamental increases in value in certain parts of the US, including coastal OC and LA, NYC, and possibly Miami. Home values will continue to hold up and even increase in these places over the next several years, even while the housing bubble collapses and corrects prices in other areas where the run-ups are not justified like Phoenix and Las Vegas. To understand why, you have to look at the profound changes that have occurred since the mid 90's in terms of globalization, communications, and information technology. As Thomas Freidman described, these dynamics are moving the world towards a "winner take all" system where the very best ideas, talents, and assests (such as prime land in southern Cal) become much more valuable relative to the runners-up. In other words the most desirable things increase massively in relative worth compared to the normal things.
Clearly we are seeing evidence of these trends in the US today. Income and wealth disparity have increased by enormous amounts as the rich get richer and the poor can't keep up. The middle class is shrinking every day. The Gini coefficient for the US is as high as it has ever been since the census bureau began measuring, and has accelerated it's rise since the mid 90's. Rents have been increasing here in So-Cal at levels far higher than the national inflation rate. Doesn't that say something? Stock prices go up not just because earnings go up, but also in anticipation of future earnings increases. In the same way you can argue that the increases in home prices here may be justified by the expectation of continued above average growth in rents.</p>
<p>There has been a nationwide housing bubble, but to a large extent that bubble has masked genuine fundamental increases in value in certain parts of the US, including coastal OC and LA, NYC, and possibly Miami. Home values will continue to hold up and even increase in these places over the next several years, even while the housing bubble collapses and corrects prices in other areas where the run-ups are not justified like Phoenix and Las Vegas. To understand why, you have to look at the profound changes that have occurred since the mid 90's in terms of globalization, communications, and information technology. As Thomas Freidman described, these dynamics are moving the world towards a "winner take all" system where the very best ideas, talents, and assests (such as prime land in southern Cal) become much more valuable relative to the runners-up. In other words the most desirable things increase massively in relative worth compared to the normal things.
Clearly we are seeing evidence of these trends in the US today. Income and wealth disparity have increased by enormous amounts as the rich get richer and the poor can't keep up. The middle class is shrinking every day. The Gini coefficient for the US is as high as it has ever been since the census bureau began measuring, and has accelerated it's rise since the mid 90's. Rents have been increasing here in So-Cal at levels far higher than the national inflation rate. Doesn't that say something? Stock prices go up not just because earnings go up, but also in anticipation of future earnings increases. In the same way you can argue that the increases in home prices here may be justified by the expectation of continued above average growth in rents.</p>
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
bigmoneysalsa,
Best I have heard in a while...
Best I have heard in a while...
PadreBrian_IHB
New member
[quote author="skeptic" date=1172700417]<p>From Bloomberg:</p>
<p>Kenneth Heebner, the manager of the top performing real estate fund over the past 10 years, said the economic damage from high-risk mortgage defaults is only going to get worse. </p>
<p>``We have a trillion dollars of subprime mortgages and we're going to have huge defaults,'' Heebner, 66, said in a telephone interview today from his office in Boston. ``If you're looking at the housing market, it's not the darkest before dawn, it's the darkest before pitch black,'' Heebner said. </p>
<p>Heebner, cofounder of Capital Growth Management LP, said the market for subprime loans could ``shut down'' as U.S. mortgage companies including Freddie Mac stop buying them. Delinquencies and defaults are the highest in at least seven years, according to a Feb. 22 report by Barclays Capital.</p>
<p>SUMMARY:</p>
<p>FREDDIE AND FANNIE REFUSE TO BUY CERTAIN SUBPRIME LOANS = LESS AVAILABLE CREDIT = LESS PEOPLE CAN AFFORD TO BUY = <strong>LESS DEMAND</strong> = LOWER PRICES</p>
<p>FREDDIE AND FANNIE REFUSE TO BUY CERTAIN SUBPRIME LOANS = LESS AVAILABLE CREDIT = LESS PEOPLE CAN AFFORD TO REFI WHEN THEIR ARM RESETS = HUGE DEFAULTS = <strong>MORE SUPPLY</strong> = LOWER PRICES</p>
<p> </p></blockquote>
hehehe bumping for history
<p>Kenneth Heebner, the manager of the top performing real estate fund over the past 10 years, said the economic damage from high-risk mortgage defaults is only going to get worse. </p>
<p>``We have a trillion dollars of subprime mortgages and we're going to have huge defaults,'' Heebner, 66, said in a telephone interview today from his office in Boston. ``If you're looking at the housing market, it's not the darkest before dawn, it's the darkest before pitch black,'' Heebner said. </p>
<p>Heebner, cofounder of Capital Growth Management LP, said the market for subprime loans could ``shut down'' as U.S. mortgage companies including Freddie Mac stop buying them. Delinquencies and defaults are the highest in at least seven years, according to a Feb. 22 report by Barclays Capital.</p>
<p>SUMMARY:</p>
<p>FREDDIE AND FANNIE REFUSE TO BUY CERTAIN SUBPRIME LOANS = LESS AVAILABLE CREDIT = LESS PEOPLE CAN AFFORD TO BUY = <strong>LESS DEMAND</strong> = LOWER PRICES</p>
<p>FREDDIE AND FANNIE REFUSE TO BUY CERTAIN SUBPRIME LOANS = LESS AVAILABLE CREDIT = LESS PEOPLE CAN AFFORD TO REFI WHEN THEIR ARM RESETS = HUGE DEFAULTS = <strong>MORE SUPPLY</strong> = LOWER PRICES</p>
<p> </p></blockquote>
hehehe bumping for history