Is the US too big to fail?

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[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1227795562]- Historically overlay the great gold strikes 1850-1920 (California, Klondike, South Africa) with the volatility caused by these events.</blockquote>


I would like to see that too. What happens when the supply of gold increased faster than the total output of goods and services in a society? There are historical precedents. What happens to consumer prices, gold prices, and economic activity during and after gold booms? One would have to assume that gold production in excess of general economic production would be inflationary. Such events are outside of the control of society or central bankers. These events would be very disruptive to economic activity creating a boom and bust, I would assume.



I know I sound like I love the FED and endorse their activities, but that is not the case. I am just trying to increase my understanding of how this all works. Presenting arguments, responding to counterarguments, and exploring tangential issues impacted by the same is an integral part of the process. It is one of the things that makes these forums so great.



Thank you, all.
 
One other thing that has been on my mind:



Let's say we were on a gold standard right now. What would the FED be doing differently? The bank losses are causing the destruction of real money, reducing the money supply, and causing deflation. Wouldn't the FED be printing money anyway. Wouldn't such printed money still be backed by the available quantity of gold?



Also, since the total amount of bank losses is still a mystery (or at least the extent of it is being hidden from the general public,) how do we accurately measure the money supply? It doesn't appear as if we have an accurate measure of money destruction buried in the SIVs of various lenders and hedge funds. If we cannot accurately measure money supply, how could we know if we are matching the money supply to the amount of gold?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1227833046]One other thing that has been on my mind:



Let's say we were on a gold standard right now. What would the FED be doing differently? The bank losses are causing the destruction of real money, reducing the money supply, and causing deflation. Wouldn't the FED be printing money anyway. Wouldn't such printed money still be backed by the available quantity of gold?



Also, since the total amount of bank losses is still a mystery (or at least the extent of it is being hidden from the general public,) how do we accurately measure the money supply? It doesn't appear as if we have an accurate measure of money destruction buried in the SIVs of various lenders and hedge funds. If we cannot accurately measure money supply, how could we know if we are matching the money supply to the amount of gold?</blockquote>


Sorry, I am not positive I know what you are asking, but I will do my best.

The issue is not really a gold standard. The issue is the entity controlling the money supply and whether that entity "prints" money for it's or some other entities benefit. The reason folks think gold is a better money is because no one can print more gold. This may seem counter-intuitive, but historically, societies with a fixed money supply, usually gold, prosper to a much greater degree than societies with an expanding money supply. In a true gold standard, as opposed to using actual gold currency, the money supply would be fixed to the amount of gold in that society.

So the Fed would not be in the position it is in now. The money supply would not decrease. There would still be a business cycle, but since interest rates would be free market with a stable money supply, interest rates would not fluctuate greatly or maybe not at all, the the highs and lows of the business cycle are greatly diminished. And there would be no central bank. There is no need for a central bank. A central bank's purpose is to control the money supply for those who wish to control it. The USA has not always had a central bank. The Federal Reserve is the third central bank for the US.

I am very unfamiliar with all the details of a gold standard and how the "receipt" money is produced and accounted for. I am only familiar with the principles of a fixed money supply. If the money supply is fixed, my guess is that there is little to no reason to measure it, except to keep the issuers accountable.



If you read the history and reasoning behind Article 1, Section 10, Clause 1 of the Constitution



<em>No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility</em>,

you realize that our present circumstance is nothing new and a fixed money supply based on precious metal was the founder's solution. And it worked well for the general populace. It did not work well for the banking elite, because they could not control or inflate the money supply for their enrichment. Do you know who wrote the legislation chartering the Federal Reserve? And how that legislation was passed? Consider this: It is almost impossible to fund a war with a fixed money supply without the financial support of the populace in a democratic republic.



An increase in money supply is not necessary for an increase in wealth. An increase in productivity is. We need more oranges to increase wealth, not pieces of paper.

"Paper is poverty,... it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself." --Thomas Jefferson to Edward Carrington

"That we are overdone with banking institutions which have banished the precious metals and substituted a more fluctuating and unsafe medium, that these have withdrawn capital from useful improvements and employments to nourish idleness, that the wars of the world have swollen our commerce beyond the wholesome limits of exchanging our own productions for our own wants, and that, for the emolument of a small proportion of our society who prefer these demoralizing pursuits to labors useful to the whole, the peace of the whole is endangered and all our present difficulties produced, are evils more easily to be deplored than remedied." --Thomas Jefferson to Abbe Salimankis

"The system of banking have... ever reprobated. I contemplate it as a blot left in all our Constitutions, which, if not covered, will end in their destruction, which is already hit by the gamblers in corruption, and is sweeping away in its progress the fortunes and morals of our citizens." --Thomas Jefferson to John Taylor

"I sincerely believe... that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale." --Thomas Jefferson to John Taylor



"Everything predicted by the enemies of banks, in the beginning, is now coming to pass. We are to be ruined now by the deluge of bank paper. It is cruel that such revolutions in private fortunes should be at the mercy of avaricious adventurers, who, instead of employing their capital, if any they have, in manufactures, commerce, and other useful pursuits, make it an instrument to burden all the interchanges of property with their swindling profits, profits which are the price of no useful industry of theirs." --Thomas Jefferson to Thomas Cooper

"Certainly no nation ever before abandoned to the avarice and jugglings of private individuals to regulate according to their own interests, the quantum of circulating medium for the nation -- to inflate, by deluges of paper, the nominal prices of property, and then to buy up that property at 1s. in the pound, having first withdrawn the floating medium which might endanger a competition in purchase. Yet this is what has been done, and will be done, unless stayed by the protecting hand of the legislature. The evil has been produced by the error of their sanction of this ruinous machinery of banks; and justice, wisdom, duty, all require that they should interpose and arrest it before the schemes of plunder and spoilation desolate the country." --Thomas Jefferson to William C. Rives

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

As you can see, our present situation is nothing new. It seems our generation thinks things are so much different now. We have so much more technology and we are so much smarter. I propose our technology has not changed the concept and principles of money and human nature, and we are less educated about money presently. I think we are about to learn a very difficult lesson and we may become a bit wiser.
 
OK

Ten people grow

ten oranges and have

ten dollars

<p>

/

<p>

now ten people

grow eleven oranges

The total wealth has increased

Do you need eleven dollars?

Or can you still the distribute the eleven oranges with the same ten dollars?

How about twenty oranges?

<p>

/

<p>

Now you add one more person

eleven people

eleven oranges

Still ten dollars

Do you need more money?

<p>

/

<p>

lastly

original ten people

original ten oranges

money supply increases to $100

Has the wealth increased?

<p>

/

<p>

It is not the money used which increases wealth. The money can be anything, dollars, euros, wampum, gold. It doesn't matter.



What matters is how the money is introduced. In a fractional reserve banking system, the banks create the money and make interest on the money they create, enriching themselves and devalueing everybody else's money. And since the interest has not been created, it has to come from otherwise productive enterprise. When paid back, the principle is destroyed for a theoretical zero sum, but the interest, since uncreated bust be paid for out of existing stock. If the MS is not constantly increased to pay for the interest, a deflationary spiral is initiated. Not only is constant inflation necessary to keep the system going, but an accelerated inflation is necessary to pay for the interest.
 
Don't worry, eventually everything will be OK in the end...



As Sir Winston Churchill said <em>"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing?after they?ve tried everything else". </em>
 
[quote author="Oscar" date=1227761748]If the bank gets $10,000 from the government, but doesn't lend it nor spend it, wouldn't that have zero effect on the cost of chairs in any of the above examples? I mean, the bank might have the money, but it's not actually in circulation so how can that extra cash cause inflation?</blockquote>
This got buried on the last page... anyone have an answer? Put it into whatever hypothetical situation you want, I just don't understand how inflation can be caused by money that isn't in circulation.
 
[quote author="PeterUK" date=1227845831]Don't worry, eventually everything will be OK in the end...



As Sir Winston Churchill said <em>"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing?after they?ve tried everything else". </em></blockquote>
<em>"In England we have come to rely upon a comfortable time-lag of fifty years or a century intervening between the perception that something ought to be done and a serious attempt to do it."</em> -H.G. Wells
 
[quote author="Oscar" date=1227849994][quote author="PeterUK" date=1227845831]Don't worry, eventually everything will be OK in the end...



As Sir Winston Churchill said <em>"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing?after they?ve tried everything else". </em></blockquote>
<em>"In England we have come to rely upon a comfortable time-lag of fifty years or a century intervening between the perception that something ought to be done and a serious attempt to do it."</em> -H.G. Wells</blockquote>


<strong>*OOFF* !!</strong> Good comeback! :-)
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1227768908][quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1227758418]Business incentive for increased productivity in a fixed money supply:



1st case

$100 money supply

10 ppl

Company A makes 5 chairs

Company B makes 5 chairs



10 chairs sell for $10/each, $50 to each company



2nd case

$100 money supply

10 ppl

Company A makes 10 chairs (this company finds a new way to make twice the chairs for same cost)

Company B makes 5 chairs



15 chairs sell for $6.66/each, $66.66 to company A and $33.33 to company B. Important to note that those at company B can still buy as many chairs as they did in the 1st case (although they have less $ their quality of living is not degraded by company A), however those at company A can afford twice as many chairs.</blockquote>


To me, this is where theory and reality part ways. Companies will not increase production unless they can make more money. It doesn't matter whether or not there is more or less money on a relative basis. How would you account for that? How would you know if you are making any money? In short, I don't see how anyone could conduct business in a world with a fixed money supply. Without an expansion in money supply to account for the increased production and value added to a society, there is no way to accurately account for profits. We would all be competing to see who could devalue the other more. That is crazy.</blockquote>


$66 is more than $50, they made more money by increasing production
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227845094]OK

Ten people grow

ten oranges and have

ten dollars

<p>

/

<p>

now ten people

grow eleven oranges

The total wealth has increased

Do you need eleven dollars?

Or can you still the distribute the eleven oranges with the same ten dollars?

How about twenty oranges?

<p>

/

<p>

Now you add one more person

eleven people

eleven oranges

Still ten dollars

Do you need more money?

<p>

/

<p>

lastly

original ten people

original ten oranges

money supply increases to $100

Has the wealth increased?

<p>

/

<p>

It is not the money used which increases wealth. The money can be anything, dollars, euros, wampum, gold. It doesn't matter.</blockquote>


Sheesh... I know it is Thanksgiving, but isn't a bit early for Christmas carols?



<em>And on the forth day of Christmas the Fed gave to me...

Four TARP loans to AIG.

Three term auction facilities.

Two FDIC bank take overs.

And one loan mod for free...</em>



And why the hell am I craving an Orange right now?
 
"Let?s say we were on a gold standard right now."



Politically impossible. At the moment, the NY Fed (who, coincidentally, house a significant supply of the world's gold) can magically make money out of thin air. Why would they want to give up this power, especially since it would mean that petroleum-rich countries (and equally menacing, private interests that hold gold) are the ones to dictate monetary policy by default?
 
[quote author="Oscar" date=1227849320][quote author="Oscar" date=1227761748]If the bank gets $10,000 from the government, but doesn't lend it nor spend it, wouldn't that have zero effect on the cost of chairs in any of the above examples? I mean, the bank might have the money, but it's not actually in circulation so how can that extra cash cause inflation?</blockquote>
This got buried on the last page... anyone have an answer? Put it into whatever hypothetical situation you want, I just don't understand how inflation can be caused by money that isn't in circulation.</blockquote>


If the bank does nothing with it and does not earn interest on the reserves, (which it does), and does not count the $10,000 as reserves for purposes of lending, the $10,000 would have no effect upon the money supply, and no increase in prices.
 
[quote author="Oscar" date=1227849320][quote author="Oscar" date=1227761748]If the bank gets $10,000 from the government, but doesn't lend it nor spend it, wouldn't that have zero effect on the cost of chairs in any of the above examples? I mean, the bank might have the money, but it's not actually in circulation so how can that extra cash cause inflation?</blockquote>
This got buried on the last page... anyone have an answer? Put it into whatever hypothetical situation you want, I just don't understand how inflation can be caused by money that isn't in circulation.</blockquote>
There will be no inflation until the banks begin to lend again, but that will not happen until they know they have enough reserves to meet future loan losses. Right now, banks are hoarding cash and have tightened up credit more and more. I don't see banks loosening up anytime soon. The next shoes to drop will be credit card losses, auto loan losses, business loan losses, and commercial real estate loan losses not to mention further residential loan losses. Basically every dollar of capital banks losses, that's essentially $10 that they will not lend out....$1 trillion in loan losses = $10 trillion in less credit. In other words, the FED/treasury needs to keep those printing presses going 24/7 for a while.
 
As much as the oranges and chairs arithmetic is entertaining, it misses the point. The point of inflation and money supply is in regulating the value of fixed income savings and credit -- the intertemporal exchange rate between 10 oranges now and 10 oranges in 10yrs time.



You need fiat money because you need a way to expropriate accumulated wealth from the rentier class (savers/lenders) and distribute it to the enterpreneurial class (borrowers) or to the government. It is power. No one will give this up willingly.



In the current episode, it is a particularly useful form of power because it enables you to expropriate wealth from the Chinese, thus not even harming your own population.
 
For some education of Keynesian prestidigitation, read:

<a href="http://www.professorfekete.com/">Thou shalt not crucify labor on this cross of paper money</a>

You have to go down a bit on the initial page to find the article.



And IR, you may wish to read another article on that same page called, "Revisionist Theories of Depressions".
 
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