Is $250 Per Sq. Ft. a Fair Price for a SFR in Irvine?

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blackacre-seeker_IHB

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I could not find the answer to this question in the prior threads, so here goes.

The rental parity method to figure out a fair price for a home suggested here is a bit confusing to me, because I can never really figure out what is the fair rental price for a certain house.

So, how much would you say is a fair price per sq. ft. for (assuming the house is in a good repair, no fancy upgrades, pretty standard average garden variety cookie cutter house):

1. SFR in any of the good Irvine neighborhoods (built after 1990)

2. SFR in any of the new construction selling now that is Irvine



I would think that 250 per sq. ft. seems like a fair price, but I don't find any homes in Irvine lower that $270, and since I'm starting to look for a home to buy next summer, I'd hate to overpay, giving the risk of the house price going down further as we slide deeper into the recession...
 
There is a lot of variety in Irvine's neighborhoods and properties within those neighborhoods, so putting a blanket number on things probably will not be terribly helpful. There are already properties under $200/SF in University park, and condos in the Lakes development are under $200/SF as well. IMO, the aggregate for Irvine will drop to $225/SF to $250/SF. Some of the more desirable neighborhoods may sustain values near $300/SF whereas some will drop below $200/SF. New construction has already broken below $300/SF, and resales will fall below new (why pay more for an old house?) New construction will bottom first, so look at prices for new construction next year to set a benchmark for the rest of Irvine.
 
Thanks a lot! I gotta admit, if I see any SFR built after 1990 under $250 per sq. ft., I'd probably jump right on it and join the proud ranks of the Irvine knife catchers. But again, who knows what's going to happen in the next several months, maybe we will see the market bottom a year or two earlier than we thought with everything that's being going on lately...
 
Can't, gotta stuff my kid into one of the good IUSD schools, I'm sure Tustin schools are just the same, but I kind of started to absorb that kind of mentality where prestige is everything :)
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1222258112]There is a lot of variety in Irvine's neighborhoods and properties within those neighborhoods, so putting a blanket number on things probably will not be terribly helpful. There are already properties under $200/SF in University park, and condos in the Lakes development are under $200/SF as well. IMO, the aggregate for Irvine will drop to $225/SF to $250/SF. Some of the more desirable neighborhoods may sustain values near $300/SF whereas some will drop below $200/SF. New construction has already broken below $300/SF, and resales will fall below new (why pay more for an old house?) New construction will bottom first, so look at prices for new construction next year to set a benchmark for the rest of Irvine.</blockquote>


Woah. I....agree completely.



And the interesting thing is, in some areas within Irvine we're getting near the bottom and in other areas in Irvine, we still have a <I>long</I> way to go.
 
[quote author="blackacre-seeker" date=1222260661]Can't, gotta stuff my kid into one of the good IUSD schools, I'm sure Tustin schools are just the same, but I kind of started to absorb that kind of mentality where prestige is everything :)</blockquote>


Really? I mean, you are being serious with that comment? That's cool then, cuz they also have better dope at IUSD, so at least you know the quality is there too. I'm not joking either.
 
[quote author="blackacre-seeker" date=1222260661]Can't, gotta stuff my kid into one of the good IUSD schools, I'm sure Tustin schools are just the same, but I kind of started to absorb that kind of mentality where prestige is everything :)</blockquote>
Columbus Grove in Tustin also feeds into IUSD school district. It was already under $250 sq/ft.
 
So what's better?



1. Live in Irvine but go to school in Tustin (Northpartk, West Irvine... and Orchard Hills... if it ever opens)



or



2. Live in Tustin but go to school in Irvine (Columbus Grove)
 
I wouldn't want to live in Colubmus Grove after reading all the posts about the toxic soil and the quality of construction. I doubt I'd be able to afford a new construction in Irvine of a good size, so I'll be looking at the resales most likely.

And I'm serious, I do want my kid to go to IUSD school, and hope they don't have the dope in the elementary schools :). So ideally, I'd want to live in Irvine right by the good school and walk there. If I can't do that, I'll still live in Irvine and drive my kid to the good school, and if that doesn't work, he goes to a private school. No way I'll ever live in Tustin, Costa Mesa, RSM, Mission Viejo, and so on. I got pretty disillusioned about Laguna Niguel and Aliso Viejo after living there too. What's wrong with liking Irvine and its schools? If you like Tustin, good for you, but I don't, and don't think it is the same as Irvine, and the prices definitely reflect that. If I had that kind of money, I'd live in Newport or CDM, but since I don't, Irvine is fine with me.
 
Just f.y.i. there is a noticeable difference between Tustin proper and "Tustin Ranch". So it depends on which one you would be considering. I've lived in both. It's like day and night difference. TR is much more Irvine-like.
 
I'm ashamed to admit it, but after living here for 6 years, I've never been to Tustin Ranch, just what you would call the old Tustin, twice. I was impressed with the spacious backyards, but the neighborhood was just too old and rundown, a step up from Santa Ana. As I start looking for new homes, I'll definitely drive to Tustin Ranch and check it out. My dream neighborhood in Irvine is Oak Creek, but the prices are still too steep in my opinion, and there is almost nothing for sale on the east side of Alton. I'll just sit and wait. Have no intention to pay 5K break up fee for my Village townhome lease, ha-ha :)
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1222321835]92782 is mainly the Tustin Ranch zip code (and some CG/CS) do a little seach on zillow in that zip code. I think you will find more things that are more like Irvine and less like Tustin there. It has an Irvine Company feel to it for sure.



I don't like the price of this one for its size, but I love the look and feel of it. Especially the backyard



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/11568-Nitta-92782/home/4764015</blockquote>


This house is in Columbia. Nice houses, good floorplans. Gated tract. Great schools servicing this area. Downside is no park or pool within the tract, which is why many put pools in on their lots I suspect... There is a nice big park nearby (Cedar Grove) but you have to cross Tustin Ranch road to get to it which is a pain with little kids. Many homes in Columbia get a bunch of road noise from Jamboree, Portola, and TRanch Road.
 
Whats your thoughts on those places right by the parking of Peters Canyon (the non-reservoir side) is that ocnsidered a better/worse area of TR? I have never been in there due to the gates, but they do look nice from Peters canyon road. And that elementary school looks better than most middle schools.



That Cedar Grove Park always seems to have something going on when I drive by.



And Ipo, I thought you would have set him straight with your TR test scores by now.
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1222323857]Whats your thoughts on those places right by the parking of Peters Canyon (the non-reservoir side) is that ocnsidered a better/worse area of TR? I have never been in there due to the gates, but they do look nice from Peters canyon road. And that elementary school looks better than most middle schools.



That Cedar Grove Park always seems to have something going on when I drive by.



And Ipo, I thought you would have set him straight with your TR test scores by now.</blockquote>


The development on bordered by Peters Canyon Rd. and Pioneer is El Dorado. Nice tract, low turnover, nice pool and small park. I think the tract is laid out nicely with meandering streets, culdys, and elevation changes, but the houses are just blah. Floorplans there are kind of weak IMO. I have a feeling that construction quality was mediocre. If Columbia's plans were in El Dorado's location, it would be awesome... We would/will still consider both of those developments but my wife is partial to IUSD given that she works there. If she didn't, we'd be all over TRanch as a nice value alternative to Irvine with excellent schools and a relatively good location.
 
[quote author="blackacre-seeker" date=1222259993]Thanks a lot! I gotta admit, if I see any SFR built after 1990 under $250 per sq. ft., I'd probably jump right on it and join the proud ranks of the Irvine knife catchers. But again, who knows what's going to happen in the next several months, maybe we will see the market bottom a year or two earlier than we thought with everything that's being going on lately...</blockquote>


Ok.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1222258112]Some of the more desirable neighborhoods may sustain values near $300/SF whereas some will drop below $200/SF.</blockquote>


They may...and probably will. However, milk will cost you $9 and bread $8.50 too.
 
<blockquote>What lately has been happening that gives you an indication that market will bottom a year or two earlier? </blockquote>


I'm no expert in this at all, but I just think that with all this Wall Street turmoil we are witnessing right now, so many jobs will be eliminated that it would drive housing values down much faster with more foreclosures. First of all, all of the financing jobs having to do with investing other people's money are wiped out, who would give up their cash now, the investors' confidence is at 0 at best, then all of the jobs that were serving the financial sector will be gone, think major layoffs at all the banks and financial institutions.

Legal profession is going to suffer as well, transactional practice is at all times low, nobody wants to make any contracts, everybody wants out of them, the only specialty that is booming is bankruptcy. The days when the securities lawyer jobs were hot are long gone, people are changing specialty areas as fast as they can, nobody wants to hire new associates, only people with the book of business are welcome. Realtors are already starving, and although some might think it is a good thing, I don't, because as we lose those jobs, people stop spending money on everything, like going out, hence the restaurants that were serving these people are now laying off their employees.

That's why all electronic sellers giants' stock is going down, who would go and buy a big screen TV now, it is just a luxury, and I think most folks are more concerned about whether they can put the food on their families' table.

That's why 1 million of illegals returned to their home countries, can't help but think of the analogy of the sinking ship. I predict crime rates rising through the roof as well. Sorry for rambling on, but I just really don't see why the home prices wouldn't bottom in the next few months.

Before this I agreed with the majority here predicting the bottom in 2010-11, but now I think it would be very affordable next summer. Having said that, I highly doubt it would go up after this, I think we might see more of a flatline for a few years until and if the economy stabilizes. Who knows what's in the store for us in the next few years.

Lawyers are paid to be pessimistic, so I pessimistically expect something worse that the Great Depression. But not to worry, I got plan B, if I lose my job without the new prospects, I'm going to buy cheap land in Fallbrook or Valley Center and grow organic veggies and fruit and sell them to you guys :) I'm sure No Vaseline will jump right on this, but I just can't help myself and preach the organics to everybody who will listen :)
 
[quote author="blackacre-seeker" date=1222304423]And I'm serious, I do want my kid to go to IUSD school, and hope they don't have the dope in the elementary schools :). So ideally, I'd want to live in Irvine right by the good school and walk there. If I can't do that, I'll still live in Irvine and drive my kid to the good school, and if that doesn't work, he goes to a private school. No way I'll ever live in Tustin, Costa Mesa, RSM, Mission Viejo, and so on. I got pretty disillusioned about Laguna Niguel and Aliso Viejo after living there too. What's wrong with liking Irvine and its schools? If you like Tustin, good for you, but I don't, and don't think it is the same as Irvine, and the prices definitely reflect that. If I had that kind of money, I'd live in Newport or CDM, but since I don't, Irvine is fine with me.</blockquote>


Hey... to each their own. All I know is I went through a very good OC school district at the time, and many, and mean many turned out to be complete f*ck ups. It was fun buying a fax machine for my business at Office Depot from the hot shot sports star of my school.



Anyway, I know of more people who have come from sh*tty school districts that are in awesome jobs, than I do people from my "great" high school who were "great". No joke, you are reading posts from people who excelled at the worst of schools in the I.E. It's not the schools, it's the parents stupid. It really doesn't matter whether they go to TUSD, IUSD, or OUSD schools, it is the parent that helps and encourages them to understand the value of higher education. Not the ones who think it is entitlement because they live in the school district.



It offends me that people are dependent on the "schools" to make their children better. Take a step back, and think about what that really means.
 
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