Irvine recession proof, but Newport at risk?

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[quote author="momopi" date=1224741627]Harry Winston at South Coast Plaza is also very popular with Asian customers. Was invited to the Incredibles Collection opening earlier this month and uh...



$_$~ $_$!



I'll confess, despite being a heterosexual man, I own Coach CD case, Coach photo album, Coach PDA cover, etc. When I look at houses, I look at the kitchen and bathroom first. What demographic does my shopping habits fall in?</blockquote>


Female ones. :P
 
[quote author="NancyBotwin" date=1224751212]



Id say with a modicum of experience that you're incorrect in this statement. The reason Asians will ride out and mostly survive the downturn is they are exceptionally frugal overall. There are exceptions however when it comes to purchases like real estate they are extremely, extremely conservative. The idea that BK is trying to get across is that most in Irvine are not yet American born. They tend to have immigrated and their children may grow up to be nouveau riche, but the families that have purchased real estate in Irvine are hardworking, keep your head down kinds of people who save and rub every nickel together trying to get a few more pennies out. Overall Im willing to bet the lime on my head that they are a negligible percentage of subprime mortgages.</blockquote>




And yet, I see an awful lot of 20s and 30s asian americans who may not be subprime, but clearly used optionARM type financing to purchase their Irvine houses and condos. They may have frugal parents, but they themselves are very comfortable 'leveraging their assets' to afford "the" lifestyle. And they may buckle down when their mortgages adjust, but as the economy worsens, may not be able to retain their status lifestyles.



I would be curious what the breakdown is of Irvine buyers between the 1.0/1.5 and 2.0/3.0 generations?
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1224670050][quote author="PANDA" date=1224669256][quote author="bkshopr" date=1224665417][quote author="cl1" date=1224627908][quote author="bkshopr" date=1224565730][quote author="cl1" date=1224564805]All the open houses in Irvine that I go to most everyone else are also Asian, is that your experience too?



I looked at API scores breakdown by school by student races, the number of Asians are all over 50% and increasing every year, consistent with house buying trend.



There maybe an equilibrium, but could be 70-80% Asian in Irvine eventually.</blockquote>


No, large Asian population is sustained by critical mass of Asian retail, markets, restaurants and bilingual services. So. County zoning and regulatory agencies are very difficult so fewer Asians have the expertise to overcome the developmental process. Mom and pop businesses are the success to a thriving Asian population as well as reasonable home prices for the poor Asian workers. Irvine needs an El Monte adjacency and better public transportation inorder for Asian population to flourish. There is not enough of poor Asians to service the upper middle class Asians in Irvine so population growth is controlled.</blockquote>


I agree with bkshopr that Irvine is unlikely to be a place for lower-income Asians, however I think there is enough upper-middle class Asians who will buy in Irvine to keep the % of Asians in Irvine gradually increasing for many years to come. Irvine is a choice destination for upper-middle class Asians in the LA-Orange county area and will continue to be so as test scores rise in schools with more and more Asian kids. Look at any school in Irvine and witness the increase of Asian students year after year. To say that the % of Asians in Irvine will stop increasing, you will need to come up with an argument of what will break this trend - what will make the number of Asian students stop increasing, or what will bring less Asian home shoppers to Irvine open houses.</blockquote>


The current 2.0 and 2 X generation of kids attending Irvine schools are the children and grand children of the 1.5 Asian populations.



1.0 generation was the immigrant who came to America to seek a better opportunity for their kids (1.5 generation). They worked at sweat shops and restaurants. They are hoarders. This generation see China and other parts of Asia as prisons.



1.5 generation spent their childhood years in Asia but primarily educated in America. Most retained their culture but assimilated well to the American culture. They succeeded in college due to guilt imposed by their poor parents. They struggled initially in school and developed self taught discipline since their parents had no formal schooling. They are resourceful and entrepreneurial. Many were pioneers in technology companies. They have the drive to succeed but need to take care of their parents. They are frugal but do have one LV to keep up with the Wongs and Chos. They are the Berkeley/ UCLA generation only because of lower tuition.



2.0 generation has everything and spoiled. Their only mission in life is to do well in school. Good schools were chosen for them before they were born. They have academic and music tutors. They are showered with materialistic things by their successful 1.5 parents. They are dropped off next to the school curb every morning in fancy cars. They also eat authentic foods but can't read or say the name the dishes. They have some drive to succeed but they can always default to parents for financial help. They are shopaholics for brands and need a lot of it. They do not need to work before college graduation. Some will enter into an inter-racial relationship. The high achievers are the Ivy League generation while the low achievers are the Cal State generation.



2 x generations is far removed from their Asian culture. This is the banana and McDonalds generation: yellow on the outside and white inside. The academic emphasis of the earlier generation is lacking in the household. They attend Karate and Soccer programs. They are potential IVC students. IMO, Irvine school score will slip because of this generation. We will be seeing a decline in the test score in the near future in the Irvine schools. The older Irvine schools are slipping in the ranking status. This scenario may affect Asian population growth. They will not be the physicist from Berkeley or the David Ho who discovered AIDS. They have a greater interest in arts and music than their parents and grand parents. They are the Art institute or FIDM generation. This generation may see China and other parts of Asia as resort destinations.</blockquote>


BK,



Your description of the 2X Generation sounds just like me. Yellow in the outside, white in the inside. I guess the 2X Gen are the Ceahhinks living in Aliso Viejo huh?</blockquote>


You are PAND-OREO. Black and White: made in America.



<img src="http://www.technospudprojects.com/Projects/oreo2004/sculptures/panda.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


Yeah, I know that i've got that black brotha soul in me. My dream as a kid was to become an Asian version of Snoop Dog with my black crew... but reality sank in after college that i needed a get secure job in corporate america.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1224755534][quote author="NancyBotwin" date=1224751212]



Id say with a modicum of experience that you're incorrect in this statement. The reason Asians will ride out and mostly survive the downturn is they are exceptionally frugal overall. There are exceptions however when it comes to purchases like real estate they are extremely, extremely conservative. The idea that BK is trying to get across is that most in Irvine are not yet American born. They tend to have immigrated and their children may grow up to be nouveau riche, but the families that have purchased real estate in Irvine are hardworking, keep your head down kinds of people who save and rub every nickel together trying to get a few more pennies out. Overall Im willing to bet the lime on my head that they are a negligible percentage of subprime mortgages.</blockquote>




And yet, I see an awful lot of 20s and 30s asian americans who may not be subprime, but clearly used optionARM type financing to purchase their Irvine houses and condos. They may have frugal parents, but they themselves are very comfortable 'leveraging their assets' to afford "the" lifestyle. And they may buckle down when their mortgages adjust, but as the economy worsens, may not be able to retain their status lifestyles.



I would be curious what the breakdown is of Irvine buyers between the 1.0/1.5 and 2.0/3.0 generations?</blockquote>


Yes, that would be interesting. As I stated before, Asians are very well represented in the HELOC abusers and pretenders I profile on a daily basis. There is no way to tell from the property records which generation they were in.
 
[quote author="NancyBotwin" date=1224752074][quote author="momopi" date=1224741627]Harry Winston at South Coast Plaza is also very popular with Asian customers. Was invited to the Incredibles Collection opening earlier this month and uh...



$_$~ $_$!



I'll confess, despite being a heterosexual man, I own Coach CD case, Coach photo album, Coach PDA cover, etc. When I look at houses, I look at the kitchen and bathroom first. What demographic does my shopping habits fall in?</blockquote>


Female ones. :P</blockquote>
Hot ones???????????
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1224759215]

Yeah, I know that i've got that black brotha soul in me. My dream as a kid was to become an Asian version of Snoop Dog with my black crew... but reality sank in after college that i needed a get secure job in corporate america.</blockquote>


I ran with both the Latino and Asian gangs as a youngster in the ghetto so I have the correct CV for a rapper, unfortunately I have no talent. Incidentally, Snoop Dogg has lived for many years in an affluent Chinese enclave called the Country in Diamond Bar. My aunt and several friends of mine live in the Country and I often drive by Snoop's house. It looks like a very normal house, not someting you would see on "Cribs." The only thing unusual about Snoops' house is the cars in the driveway don't look like what his Chinese neighbors drive.
 
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