Irvine Real Estate in 2015... Good or Bad Year?

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irvinehomeowner said:
My prediction: You can't go wrong with Irvine. Unless there is some huge financial crisis, there is no bad time to buy... even the top of bubble buyers, the knife catchers and toxic loan financiers are all in the black by now.
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Guess this property owner got really unlucky then! 
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/36-Lily-Pool-92620/home/5931031

Bought at the absolute peak of the market and is now down almost 20%.  First owner made out like a bandit though.  $400k appreciation in exactly 2 years (10/04-10/06)!
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
Thank God that this is happening. The yellow invasion has been driving the whites out. Price inflation and demand have been out of sync because of the Chinese. The cemetery will keep Chinese buyers away and allowing prices to stabilize. The white buyers won't mind the green open space.
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This is funny.  :D Mehhhh, I would say whites are 50% "so-so" about living next to a cemetery and 50% somber / saddened seeing one. Some (maybe a few) would actively look forward to being located near one, especially if there is perceived value in buying there i.e. open space, less density / congestion. However, being a veteran cemetery instead of general public cemetery does make it better. (I say it makes it a lot better. The mister disagrees, he says only marginally better.) I'm one of the few who think it would be great if the house was bought at a relatively good value by comparison. I imagine it would be much better-maintained then a regular cemetery, plus it's patriotic. In the end, not many whites would turn down the house if it was their only option. This is just my opinion as official spokesperson for white people everywhere. 
 
Toluca Lake built around Forest Lawn where homes start at $2.5 mil+ and Westwood Hill built around the Veteran Cemetery where a fixer upper easily starts at $1.5m.
Both are white neighborhoods with minimal Asian population.
SoCal said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
Some of the most beautiful neighborhoods in SoCal were built around a cemetery.
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Really? Like what??
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irvinehomeshopper said:
Toluca Lake built around Forest Lawn where homes start at $2.5 mil+ and Westwood Hill built around the Veteran Cemetery where a fixer upper easily starts at $1.5m.
Both are white neighborhoods with minimal Asian population.
SoCal said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
Some of the most beautiful neighborhoods in SoCal were built around a cemetery.
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Really? Like what??
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I agree that Toluca Lake is a beautiful neighborhood. Many homes in Toluca Lake were built before the Forest Lawn Cemetary in Hollywood Hills was built. Toluca Lake is not built literally around the cemetary but rather 1.5+ miles down the road.

And it seems that cemetary had plenty of opposition back in the day (Wikipedia):
When Eaton (self-proclaimed as "The Builder") made known his desire to open a second Forest Lawn location in the Hollywood Hills, the local residents protested vehemently. To circumvent the protesters, Mr. Eaton sent his staff to the county morgue to claim 4 "John Does" and buried them at the corners of the property in the dark of night. In the morning, the protesters had no power because, by law, the property was now a cemetery.[citation needed] The new mortuary and cemetery opened in 1952.
 
The California Court Company said:
I agree with ihs. The cemetery will give whites a chance to purchase in Irvine so they don't have to settle for secondary nearby cities like Foothill Ranch
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*Somebody* missed meeeeeeee!
 
i1 said:
Jan 13, 2015

Jeff Mezger  - CEO, KB Home

One of the things that we?ve seen the trend we?ve picked up on I think relative to Orange County, there has been a pull back on the new home side with the Chinese buyer and these people are heavily controlled by realtors that they?re comfortable doing business with. Where the realtors are taking them today is the resale side in that the new home pricing in ?14 increased pretty significantly in those areas and resale became a more attractive opportunity in the eyes of the realtor and the consumer.

So I don?t know if that?s the typical push pull in the market and as resale pricing goes up which it has now in the last 60 days in Orange County it?s been moving up. So it could just be the competitive push pull and at some point they'll come back to the new home side. It?s hard to say whether it?s a short term move or the competitive pressure from other builders, but in the Inland Empire or Central Valley up Northern California we saw a big increase incentives and price pressures. And I don?t know if there is people closing out their year, closing out communities and we?re watchful we?ll see how the New Year unfolds here.
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This is interesting as I always felt that resale held a better value because of a wider choice of neighborhoods, floorplans, lot sizes and home styles.

First phases of some new builds is usually good equity-wise but with most new Irvine homes getting less space for more money and then having additional costs to bear with upgrades and landscaping, builders have to be careful with pricing.

Just from an eyeball point of view, it seems that OH (and even SG and CV) are selling at a slower pace than PP and there are reasons for that.
 
but in the Inland Empire or Central Valley up Northern California we saw a big increase incentives and price pressures. And I don?t know if there is people closing out their year, closing out communities and we?re watchful we?ll see how the New Year unfolds here.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
i1 said:
Jan 13, 2015

Jeff Mezger  - CEO, KB Home

One of the things that we?ve seen the trend we?ve picked up on I think relative to Orange County, there has been a pull back on the new home side with the Chinese buyer and these people are heavily controlled by realtors that they?re comfortable doing business with. Where the realtors are taking them today is the resale side in that the new home pricing in ?14 increased pretty significantly in those areas and resale became a more attractive opportunity in the eyes of the realtor and the consumer.

So I don?t know if that?s the typical push pull in the market and as resale pricing goes up which it has now in the last 60 days in Orange County it?s been moving up. So it could just be the competitive push pull and at some point they'll come back to the new home side. It?s hard to say whether it?s a short term move or the competitive pressure from other builders, but in the Inland Empire or Central Valley up Northern California we saw a big increase incentives and price pressures. And I don?t know if there is people closing out their year, closing out communities and we?re watchful we?ll see how the New Year unfolds here.
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This is interesting as I always felt that resale held a better value because of a wider choice of neighborhoods, floorplans, lot sizes and home styles.

First phases of some new builds is usually good equity-wise but with most new Irvine homes getting less space for more money and then having additional costs to bear with upgrades and landscaping, builders have to be careful with pricing.

Just from an eyeball point of view, it seems that OH (and even SG and CV) are selling at a slower pace than PP and there are reasons for that.
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I think it's way too early to tell what the re-sales are going to be like...there are just not enough sales to make a determination one way or another.  I would wait until May/June to see what is out there, what the prices are, and how fast they're are selling.
 
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/percent-653383-market-housing.html

So we're trending towards a seller's market?  I don't see the above the comp sale trend yet in my neighborhood...But I do see an uptick in the number of realtors presenting to me the 'I have a client who wants to buy your house' speech.  Even had a young fellow from Coldwell cold knock on my door the other day, caught me by surprise.. usually the agents leave a well written letter about 'Jim/Mary and little Lulu' who would love to live in your neighbor hood if your family would like to GTFO.  But this guy was hungry, despite my no answers, kept pushing about future plans and if I knew any neighbors that are planning to move.  Final push was do I know any agents to recommend to my neighbors?  My only yes answer shut him up quick..  But I was actually impressed by this, more entertaining than Jehovah's. 
 
Yup, things are picking up a bit.  I'm seeing in both the open house traffic (both mine and other agent open houses) and properties are going to schedule faster too.  Also, my home inspector that I recommend usually has a lead time of 2 days to schedule an inspection normally...now it's more like 4-5 day lead time because he is so busy doing inspection. 
 
Isn't this typical Spring momentum?

End of the year brings inventory way down and then starts upward and peaks at the start of Fall?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Isn't this typical Spring momentum?

End of the year brings inventory way down and then starts upward and peaks at the start of Fall?
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That may be part of it another one may that resale inventory is stubbornly low and maybe people are buying because they are worrying that rates are going to go up with the Fed raising rates later on this year (even though that doesn't really effect mortgage rates that much).  I'm seeing price tick up a bit too and multiple offers on properties that I have listed and offers that I made on. 
 
RMB against dollar has depreciated about 2% since December. Maybe the Chinese FCBs are worried about the dollar getting stronger -> more FCB demand for US real estates.

Obviously for domestic financed buyers, the rates have been good in Dec/Jan and we may be around the inflection point now. so a rush to buy as USC indicated.
 
I'll give you guys an example of pricing ticking up....the highest recent price for my model match home was $785k.  The same model match home a few houses down from me went into escrow in 7 days with a list price of $839k.  Obviously it'll close north of $800k...but will it be $825k or $840k?
 
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