Irvine homebuying down 11%
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Congrat, you have something in mind, hope that you can have the deal.
Though generally speaking it is good time to buy, but it depends on each financial situation. 3% down is high risk, if mortgage payment needs double income, it is even worse. If each months payment takes up 40% more of your income, it is wise not to buy at this moment. Of course your life situation, such as marriage, moving or going back to graduate school all matter to your purchase decision. I lived on East coast for a while, they are more conservative, no more than 3 times of your income for house you buy unless you have a large down payment. Here in CA people even take 50%, that is why we see bubble and high volume of foreclosure.
Owning is great, but in some unexpected circumstance if you have to sell or even foreclosure. It is no fun. It may take years to recover financially and emotionally.
Then why would you want to own by the beach? Those places are just as fundamentally unsound.
Hi, Indie, Buying at the peak, oh, I feel your pain and agony. no wonder that you are so jealousy at new buyers. they enjoy a great discount on the price you paid. Why don't you list it on the market? So we may find out how much discount of Irvine housing really comes down!
Indie may have purchased low. But he HELOC'd for his porsche and other fancy stuffs. Now he needs to bring cash to the table to sell this house. I am sure he is eager to get rid of his Irvine house as soon as possible so that he can buy a Laguna Beach house that carries real premium, not the fake Irvine premium that he has hated all along.
LOVE this. Wish I could have written it myself. Heh.
Suppose your Irvine house value is $1m now and the price goes down 10% next year as you wish. You lose $100k. Your dream $3m Laguna house may go down 15% next year due to lower affordability. You pay $450k less for such a house and your NET gain is $350k. The lower the Irvine market goes, the better for you to trade up. What a smart guy you are
Our FCBs hope your dream comes true and they will be able to pick up a few cheap Irvine rental properties.
You throw out your high-end home ownership as proof to how well you know the valuation of places like QH and TRidge... yet you look down on people who want to own in Irvine. Then you like to throw jabs about where people live, where they are buying and how much they want to buy but you can't take a little needling about your own details... glass house/stone casting lesson somewhere in there.
You know, when people discuss business, a lot of what people say is emotional and psychological. Insecurity is hard to hide. I've seen it in my own career dealing with contacts and suppliers from West Africa to China. Usually when people are caught off guard because of their own lack of knowledge, they become defensive. I can sense it very easily. Either a person's body language will become more enclosed (crossing arms for example), or they will speak defensively, personal attacks occasionally. It's not about "taking it", for me, it's about understanding why, and it's because of this I've been able to be successful even through a translator.
Whether Indie bought in a bubble (he didn't), Indie HELOC'd his house (he didn't), Indie is going to buy a home close to the ocean (he is), is irrelevant, the market is the market, and my own personal purchasing behavior is too small to determine anything. So let us take a 10,000 foot view.
When it comes down to it since the beginning of 2011, I've been saying the same thing, on the same platform, based on the same verifiable market facts. Whether people take it personally because they've bought an overpriced albatross in a market that is correcting is not really my concern. You may call it "jabbing", I call it fundamentals, and I haven't been wrong.
They are a cold thing when you are on the wrong side of them, trust me, I've lost money once before making hasty decisions not based on fundamental market factors but emotional/psychological factors. The best thing you can do is to learn from it so it doesn't happen again. That being said, some people learn better than others.
It's all psychology. For instance, Starlight East bought a stucco box in Woodbury East. Good for him, but he seems defensive to the fact that Woodbury has very low potential for any actual appreciation in the next few years. Is that my fault or his? If he enjoys the home, he shouldn't worry about my personal opinion on Irvine housing unless... he thinks what I'm saying is actually true. He knows he'll take a bath to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars in the next few years, and I'm a constant reminder of that. So he tries his best to paint me as someone who is not knowledgeable, or doesn't know the market. It's all psychology, then after a while, it can become pure fantasy.
The worst thing you can do is invent a fantasy when it comes to your own financial decisions. lcms2002 actually thinks the following:
- Home ownership is special, you have better memories.
- Owning for 20 years, it actually gets better.
Or edhne:
- Backing to Culver (a 6 lane road in many places) isn't that bad a thing if you live in Turtle Ridge. It's special.
- A 40 year old home selling at $839,000 will be able to rent at parity or above.
That's incredible. It displays a type of psychological conditioning that has been cultured over years and years of pro ownership myths. It's almost sad, but mostly incredible that anyone could believe such a thing. Psychology.
But if it helps my fans to invent stories about my life, then so be it, but as I mentioned before, it simply exposes the psychology behind the people who are doing it. While I deal with facts, much easier to work with IMHO, you get to deal with making up fantasy. I guess it has to be a specialty of someone who owns in Irvine, especially the last few years.
I love how IndieDev gets all of you riled up. It's hillarous.
This reminds me of a radio show I have listened to on Saturday nights called the Phil Henry show on 640AM. He brings a ficticious character on called Ted Bell from a restaurant called Ted's of Beverly Hills. Ted is the most obnoxious A-Hole in the world who pretty much puts everyone down and has some really nasty opinions. Everyone calls in pissed off as hell trying to argue the with the guy when they dont realize its all part of the skit.
This reminds me of a radio show I have listened to on Saturday nights called the Phil Henry show on 640AM. He brings a ficticious character on called Ted Bell from a restaurant called Ted's of Beverly Hills. Ted is the most obnoxious A-Hole in the world who pretty much puts everyone down and has some really nasty opinions. Everyone calls in pissed off as hell trying to argue the with the guy when they dont realize its all part of the skit.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
The magic of Phil Henry was he does all the voices.
IndieDev
New member
Things we've learned from TalkIrvine home owners in the past few months:
- Owning a house makes your memories better.
- The value of owning a house can't be measured in money.
- If your house backs to Culver it isn't really a bad thing...
- Quail Hill is special (substitute Woodbury East, West Park II, and Turtle anything when appropriate).
- People who don't think the Irvine brand is worth the premium are just poor losers waiting for prices to drop 50% so they can live here.
- Owning a house makes your memories better.
- The value of owning a house can't be measured in money.
- If your house backs to Culver it isn't really a bad thing...
- Quail Hill is special (substitute Woodbury East, West Park II, and Turtle anything when appropriate).
- People who don't think the Irvine brand is worth the premium are just poor losers waiting for prices to drop 50% so they can live here.
IndieDev said:
Congrat, you have something in mind, hope that you can have the deal.
Though generally speaking it is good time to buy, but it depends on each financial situation. 3% down is high risk, if mortgage payment needs double income, it is even worse. If each months payment takes up 40% more of your income, it is wise not to buy at this moment. Of course your life situation, such as marriage, moving or going back to graduate school all matter to your purchase decision. I lived on East coast for a while, they are more conservative, no more than 3 times of your income for house you buy unless you have a large down payment. Here in CA people even take 50%, that is why we see bubble and high volume of foreclosure.
Owning is great, but in some unexpected circumstance if you have to sell or even foreclosure. It is no fun. It may take years to recover financially and emotionally.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
So you own strictly for financial sense?IndieDev said:
Then why would you want to own by the beach? Those places are just as fundamentally unsound.
Starlight East said:
Hi, Indie, Buying at the peak, oh, I feel your pain and agony. no wonder that you are so jealousy at new buyers. they enjoy a great discount on the price you paid. Why don't you list it on the market? So we may find out how much discount of Irvine housing really comes down!
lcms2002 said:
Indie may have purchased low. But he HELOC'd for his porsche and other fancy stuffs. Now he needs to bring cash to the table to sell this house. I am sure he is eager to get rid of his Irvine house as soon as possible so that he can buy a Laguna Beach house that carries real premium, not the fake Irvine premium that he has hated all along.
traceimage
New member
lcms2002 said:
LOVE this. Wish I could have written it myself. Heh.
IndieDev said:NonFCB said:
Wait, so I'm trying make a case for Irvine valuations being lower, so I can sell my house for a lower price and make less money? :-\
Yeah that makes sense... :
Suppose your Irvine house value is $1m now and the price goes down 10% next year as you wish. You lose $100k. Your dream $3m Laguna house may go down 15% next year due to lower affordability. You pay $450k less for such a house and your NET gain is $350k. The lower the Irvine market goes, the better for you to trade up. What a smart guy you are
Our FCBs hope your dream comes true and they will be able to pick up a few cheap Irvine rental properties.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Hey... if you dish it out... you should be able to take it too.IndieDev said:
You throw out your high-end home ownership as proof to how well you know the valuation of places like QH and TRidge... yet you look down on people who want to own in Irvine. Then you like to throw jabs about where people live, where they are buying and how much they want to buy but you can't take a little needling about your own details... glass house/stone casting lesson somewhere in there.
IndieDev
New member
irvinehomeowner said:
You know, when people discuss business, a lot of what people say is emotional and psychological. Insecurity is hard to hide. I've seen it in my own career dealing with contacts and suppliers from West Africa to China. Usually when people are caught off guard because of their own lack of knowledge, they become defensive. I can sense it very easily. Either a person's body language will become more enclosed (crossing arms for example), or they will speak defensively, personal attacks occasionally. It's not about "taking it", for me, it's about understanding why, and it's because of this I've been able to be successful even through a translator.
Whether Indie bought in a bubble (he didn't), Indie HELOC'd his house (he didn't), Indie is going to buy a home close to the ocean (he is), is irrelevant, the market is the market, and my own personal purchasing behavior is too small to determine anything. So let us take a 10,000 foot view.
When it comes down to it since the beginning of 2011, I've been saying the same thing, on the same platform, based on the same verifiable market facts. Whether people take it personally because they've bought an overpriced albatross in a market that is correcting is not really my concern. You may call it "jabbing", I call it fundamentals, and I haven't been wrong.
They are a cold thing when you are on the wrong side of them, trust me, I've lost money once before making hasty decisions not based on fundamental market factors but emotional/psychological factors. The best thing you can do is to learn from it so it doesn't happen again. That being said, some people learn better than others.It's all psychology. For instance, Starlight East bought a stucco box in Woodbury East. Good for him, but he seems defensive to the fact that Woodbury has very low potential for any actual appreciation in the next few years. Is that my fault or his? If he enjoys the home, he shouldn't worry about my personal opinion on Irvine housing unless... he thinks what I'm saying is actually true. He knows he'll take a bath to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars in the next few years, and I'm a constant reminder of that. So he tries his best to paint me as someone who is not knowledgeable, or doesn't know the market. It's all psychology, then after a while, it can become pure fantasy.
The worst thing you can do is invent a fantasy when it comes to your own financial decisions. lcms2002 actually thinks the following:
- Home ownership is special, you have better memories.
- Owning for 20 years, it actually gets better.
Or edhne:
- Backing to Culver (a 6 lane road in many places) isn't that bad a thing if you live in Turtle Ridge. It's special.
- A 40 year old home selling at $839,000 will be able to rent at parity or above.
That's incredible. It displays a type of psychological conditioning that has been cultured over years and years of pro ownership myths. It's almost sad, but mostly incredible that anyone could believe such a thing. Psychology.
But if it helps my fans to invent stories about my life, then so be it, but as I mentioned before, it simply exposes the psychology behind the people who are doing it. While I deal with facts, much easier to work with IMHO, you get to deal with making up fantasy. I guess it has to be a specialty of someone who owns in Irvine, especially the last few years.