Inventory creeping up?

[paperboyNC]

540 this morning

I am seeing lot's of open house signs this weekend. Entrance to Woodbury & Woodbury East on Sand Canyon & Towngate, I counted at least 10-15. I know some of you will think otherwise, but it feels like the market is slowing down.

Wasn't this a similar pattern in 2007-2008. Prices continued to rise but volume of sales slowed down. Eventually inventory rose substantially which followed with a drop in prices.

Is $450-$500/sq foot sustainable?

If we have another great recession with a 50% stock market & 40% bond market drop then yes - home prices will fall again as well. If unemployment in Orange edges down to 3-4% and population and jobs continue to boom here in Irvine, then home prices will continue to rise.

Resale demand has slowed down for two main reasons:
- New homes available have skyrocketed since last year and are fulfilling a lot of home demand (last year there was no cypress village and pavilion park and Portola Springs was temporarily in a lull with two enclaves complete and no new enclaves ready. Stonegate had 100s of people on waiting lists for phase releases, Stonegate east, Woodbury and Laguna Altura were sold out)
- Prices are too high. Demand is too enormous for desirable homes prices at or slightly below market value. Most homes are listed at WTF prices.

So yea there is a lot of inventory, but not enough serious sellers other than the new home builders.

 

[zubs]

It looks like resale fishing season is coming to an end.  The big fish have already bit and the new home are causing the other fishes to swim in that direction.  2013 was a great year to fish...2014 not so much.

 

[usctrojancpa]

540 this morning

I am seeing lot's of open house signs this weekend. Entrance to Woodbury & Woodbury East on Sand Canyon & Towngate, I counted at least 10-15. I know some of you will think otherwise, but it feels like the market is slowing down.

Wasn't this a similar pattern in 2007-2008. Prices continued to rise but volume of sales slowed down. Eventually inventory rose substantially which followed with a drop in prices.

Is $450-$500/sq foot sustainable?

I saw 515 active listings in Irvine (which includes a few dozen new homes listed on MLS) earlier this evening.  Most detached homes are trading $400-$450/sf with more desirable areas trading in the $500/sf range.  There were 219 closed sales in March so we are only have 2.5 months of inventory which is a weak seller's market.  Prices are basically flat this year after last year's run up.  Houses that are priced within comps still sell pretty fast.  There's buyers out there but they are being more selective and not panicking like they were last year.  Unless something big happens (stock market crash, bond yields spike, China implodes, etc) you aren't going to see any material price declines this year.

 

[pricedoutJay]

I'm relatively new to this board but have been living in Irvine for many years

Sad to say that I agree with the realtor...  The home price won't plunge especially in Irvine and other prim OC area unless something historically drastic happens.

I'm hoping the price will just stay the same level for next a year or two so I can save more for bigger down payment and have more inventory to choose from.  I remember during 2008 and 2009, the inventory in Irvine was 800+.  So it could go back there again, even so with all the new houses that were built since then.

 

[lnc]

Loos like there is a national trend of slow down in the price increase, decrease in sales and gradually increase inventory. 

Here's info regarding to Las Vegas for a reference.  I like to follow Las Vegas ealestate, to me its a canary in a coal mine.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/las-vegas-real-estate-in-march-year.html

Overall sales were down about 15% year-over-year.

the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada during March was $195,000, up 2.6 percent from $190,000 in February.

By the end of March,  6,470 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That?s a 127.9 percent jump from one year ago.

 

[paperboyNC]

Loos like there is a national trend of slow down in the price increase, decrease in sales and gradually increase inventory. 

Here's info regarding to Las Vegas for a reference.  I like to follow Las Vegas ealestate, to me its a canary in a coal mine.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/las-vegas-real-estate-in-march-year.html

Overall sales were down about 15% year-over-year.

the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada during March was $195,000, up 2.6 percent from $190,000 in February.

By the end of March,  6,470 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That?s a 127.9 percent jump from one year ago.

That's because inventory was at ridiculously low levels in most of the country a year ago. It's like look at Mutual Funds 5 year performance figures. They are all off the charts because the bond & stock markets were at ridiculously low levels 5 years ago.

To really do an inventory comparison you have to look at a few decades. As USC Trojan said - a neutral inventory level is about 5-6 months or 1,000 active listings.

 

[lnc]

Loos like there is a national trend of slow down in the price increase, decrease in sales and gradually increase inventory. 

Here's info regarding to Las Vegas for a reference.  I like to follow Las Vegas ealestate, to me its a canary in a coal mine.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/las-vegas-real-estate-in-march-year.html

Overall sales were down about 15% year-over-year.

the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada during March was $195,000, up 2.6 percent from $190,000 in February.

By the end of March,  6,470 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That?s a 127.9 percent jump from one year ago.

That's because inventory was at ridiculously low levels in most of the country a year ago. It's like look at Mutual Funds 5 year performance figures. They are all off the charts because the bond & stock markets were at ridiculously low levels 5 years ago.

To really do an inventory comparison you have to look at a few decades. As USC Trojan said - a neutral inventory level is about 5-6 months or 1,000 active listings.

Here's graph of inventory level nationally going back to 2001.  The inventory was significantly elevated between 2005 to 2011 but like paperboyNC stated, only briefly dipped to historical low level between late 2012 and first half of 2013.  Looks like we are inching up closer to inventory level of pre-bubble years.  Maybe later this year or beginning of next year, we may see 5-6 month supply. 

 

[quattroporte]

540 this morning

I am seeing lot's of open house signs this weekend. Entrance to Woodbury & Woodbury East on Sand Canyon & Towngate, I counted at least 10-15. I know some of you will think otherwise, but it feels like the market is slowing down.

Wasn't this a similar pattern in 2007-2008. Prices continued to rise but volume of sales slowed down. Eventually inventory rose substantially which followed with a drop in prices.

Is $450-$500/sq foot sustainable?

I saw 515 active listings in Irvine (which includes a few dozen new homes listed on MLS) earlier this evening.  Most detached homes are trading $400-$450/sf with more desirable areas trading in the $500/sf range.  There were 219 closed sales in March so we are only have 2.5 months of inventory which is a weak seller's market.  Prices are basically flat this year after last year's run up.  Houses that are priced within comps still sell pretty fast.  There's buyers out there but they are being more selective and not panicking like they were last year.  Unless something big happens (stock market crash, bond yields spike, China implodes, etc) you aren't going to see any material price declines this year.

What would be the reason for this new detached construction to be at $314/SF?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Scented-Violet-92620/unit-133/home/55075466

 

[jerometl]

540 this morning

I am seeing lot's of open house signs this weekend. Entrance to Woodbury & Woodbury East on Sand Canyon & Towngate, I counted at least 10-15. I know some of you will think otherwise, but it feels like the market is slowing down.

Wasn't this a similar pattern in 2007-2008. Prices continued to rise but volume of sales slowed down. Eventually inventory rose substantially which followed with a drop in prices.

Is $450-$500/sq foot sustainable?

I saw 515 active listings in Irvine (which includes a few dozen new homes listed on MLS) earlier this evening.  Most detached homes are trading $400-$450/sf with more desirable areas trading in the $500/sf range.  There were 219 closed sales in March so we are only have 2.5 months of inventory which is a weak seller's market.  Prices are basically flat this year after last year's run up.  Houses that are priced within comps still sell pretty fast.  There's buyers out there but they are being more selective and not panicking like they were last year.  Unless something big happens (stock market crash, bond yields spike, China implodes, etc) you aren't going to see any material price declines this year.

What would be the reason for this new detached construction to be at $314/SF?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Scented-Violet-92620/unit-133/home/55075466

Looks like the square footage is wrong.  If it is Marigold, the largest plan is under 2000 sq ft (not counting conservatory/cal room)

 

[usctrojancpa]

540 this morning

I am seeing lot's of open house signs this weekend. Entrance to Woodbury & Woodbury East on Sand Canyon & Towngate, I counted at least 10-15. I know some of you will think otherwise, but it feels like the market is slowing down.

Wasn't this a similar pattern in 2007-2008. Prices continued to rise but volume of sales slowed down. Eventually inventory rose substantially which followed with a drop in prices.

Is $450-$500/sq foot sustainable?

I saw 515 active listings in Irvine (which includes a few dozen new homes listed on MLS) earlier this evening.  Most detached homes are trading $400-$450/sf with more desirable areas trading in the $500/sf range.  There were 219 closed sales in March so we are only have 2.5 months of inventory which is a weak seller's market.  Prices are basically flat this year after last year's run up.  Houses that are priced within comps still sell pretty fast.  There's buyers out there but they are being more selective and not panicking like they were last year.  Unless something big happens (stock market crash, bond yields spike, China implodes, etc) you aren't going to see any material price declines this year.

What would be the reason for this new detached construction to be at $314/SF?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Scented-Violet-92620/unit-133/home/55075466

Fat finger error by the builder on the square foot.  Last time I checked most attached condos were selling for $375-$400/sf and detached homes/conds were selling for $400/sf to $450/sf. 

 

[bwpunch]

540 this morning

I am seeing lot's of open house signs this weekend. Entrance to Woodbury & Woodbury East on Sand Canyon & Towngate, I counted at least 10-15. I know some of you will think otherwise, but it feels like the market is slowing down.

Wasn't this a similar pattern in 2007-2008. Prices continued to rise but volume of sales slowed down. Eventually inventory rose substantially which followed with a drop in prices.

Is $450-$500/sq foot sustainable?

I saw 515 active listings in Irvine (which includes a few dozen new homes listed on MLS) earlier this evening.  Most detached homes are trading $400-$450/sf with more desirable areas trading in the $500/sf range.  There were 219 closed sales in March so we are only have 2.5 months of inventory which is a weak seller's market.  Prices are basically flat this year after last year's run up.  Houses that are priced within comps still sell pretty fast.  There's buyers out there but they are being more selective and not panicking like they were last year.  Unless something big happens (stock market crash, bond yields spike, China implodes, etc) you aren't going to see any material price declines this year.

What would be the reason for this new detached construction to be at $314/SF?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Scented-Violet-92620/unit-133/home/55075466

Fat finger error by the builder on the square foot.  Last time I checked most attached condos were selling for $375-$400/sf and detached homes/conds were selling for $400/sf to $450/sf. 

It's updated now.  1979 sqft, so that makes it $398/sqft

 

[quattroporte]

591 according to Redfin

 

[lnc]

Did any one keep track or have info of inventory level and sales volume in Irvine for the last 12 month or 24 month?  I ask because there's national trend of increase inventory and decrease sales.  I'm just wonder if Irvine starts to follow this national trend.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Did any one keep track or have info of inventory level and sales volume in Irvine for the last 12 month or 24 month?  I ask because there's national trend of increase inventory and decrease sales.  I'm just wonder if Irvine starts to follow this national trend.

I have the data going back to Jan 2007.  Here's the link to my thread (I need to update my schedule for Feb & March data)....
http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,844.180.html

 

[usctrojancpa]

591 according to Redfin

566 per MLS as of 7:30pm today.  If you exclude homes built in 2014 the number of active listings in 549.  Considering that March sales were over 200 we are still in a weak seller's market.  But good to see inventory levels increasing as we get into selling season. 

 

[rickr]

601 on Redfin

 

[usctrojancpa]

601 on Redfin

Redfin can suck balls sometimes....I updated my listing to show an open house for Saturday AND SUNDAY this weekend.  Redfin shows that there's only an open house on Sunday.  Then I go back into my listing and re-do it.  What happens?  Now Redfin shows that there's only an open house on Saturday.  Had to call them to fix the issue.  Like I tell everyone I know, Redfin is about 95% accurate so don't look as the holy grail.

 

[rickr]

95/5 is better than the 80/20 rule we go by at my company with some of our standard costing.

Marty, we might need to hire you as a consultant in our finance dept.

 

[usctrojancpa]

95/5 is better than the 80/20 rule we go by at my company with some of our standard costing.

Marty, we might need to hire you as a consultant in our finance dept.

haha  Sure, I'm always down to listen to an attractive offer. 

 

[rickr]

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