Inventory creeping up?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
393 active listings on MLS as of 9:30pm this evening.  That's the bright side, but unfortunately we are still only at 1.75 months worth of inventory (anything below 2 months of inventory is a strong seller's market).  We need to get to 800-900 listings to get to a neutral market (approx. 4 months of inventory). 
 
There must be a large number of folks who, despite a favorable sellers market, are actually deterred from selling. Assuming these folks do not want to move into a rental, they are avoiding selling because it would require them to find another home in this inventory constrained market, plus, they would arguably be remarking their property tax base (upwards!).  I've heard this argument from a couple home owners recently.    8)
 
Westsiiide! said:
There must be a large number of folks who, despite a favorable sellers market, are actually deterred from selling. Assuming these folks do not want to move into a rental, they are avoiding selling because it would require them to find another home in this inventory constrained market, plus, they would arguably be remarking their property tax base (upwards!).  I've heard this argument from a couple home owners recently.    8)
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True... but that's also describing the move-up market. It's probably why new homes have long waiting lists now even though there are more new home tracts for sale that has been in the last few years.

At least one person I know has sold their home while waiting for their new home to be built.

@USC: If you take into account the number of new homes for sale, where does that put the market? Esp with The Great Park opening in about 2 months.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Westsiiide! said:
There must be a large number of folks who, despite a favorable sellers market, are actually deterred from selling. Assuming these folks do not want to move into a rental, they are avoiding selling because it would require them to find another home in this inventory constrained market, plus, they would arguably be remarking their property tax base (upwards!).  I've heard this argument from a couple home owners recently.    8)
Click to expand...
True... but that's also describing the move-up market. It's probably why new homes have long waiting lists now even though there are more new home tracts for sale that has been in the last few years.

At least one two person I know has sold their home while waiting for their new home to be built.

@USC: If you take into account the number of new homes for sale, where does that put the market? Esp with The Great Park opening in about 2 months.
Click to expand...
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Westsiiide! said:
There must be a large number of folks who, despite a favorable sellers market, are actually deterred from selling. Assuming these folks do not want to move into a rental, they are avoiding selling because it would require them to find another home in this inventory constrained market, plus, they would arguably be remarking their property tax base (upwards!).  I've heard this argument from a couple home owners recently.    8)
Click to expand...
True... but that's also describing the move-up market. It's probably why new homes have long waiting lists now even though there are more new home tracts for sale that has been in the last few years.

At least one person I know has sold their home while waiting for their new home to be built.

@USC: If you take into account the number of new homes for sale, where does that put the market? Esp with The Great Park opening in about 2 months.
Click to expand...
That's really tough for a couple of reasons....1. Is there are only so many new homes available at any point (i.e. how many every homes in a phase) and 2. I don't have a way to track the volume of new home sales on a monthly basis in Irvine.  Basically there are buyer waitlists for almost every development in Irvine (granted it, many buyers put themselves on more than one buyer list).  Even with the new home inventory I still think we are around 2 months of inventory or a strong seller's market.  Now once we get around 2.5 months of inventory then it becomes a normal seller's market and once we get to 4 months we are in a neutral market.  From what I can tell, the big price increases have stopped for resale homes.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Westsiiide! said:
There must be a large number of folks who, despite a favorable sellers market, are actually deterred from selling. Assuming these folks do not want to move into a rental, they are avoiding selling because it would require them to find another home in this inventory constrained market, plus, they would arguably be remarking their property tax base (upwards!).  I've heard this argument from a couple home owners recently.    8)
Click to expand...
True... but that's also describing the move-up market. It's probably why new homes have long waiting lists now even though there are more new home tracts for sale that has been in the last few years.

At least one person I know has sold their home while waiting for their new home to be built.

@USC: If you take into account the number of new homes for sale, where does that put the market? Esp with The Great Park opening in about 2 months.
Click to expand...
That's really tough for a couple of reasons....1. Is there are only so many new homes available at any point (i.e. how many every homes in a phase) and 2. I don't have a way to track the volume of new home sales on a monthly basis in Irvine.  Basically there are buyer waitlists for almost every development in Irvine (granted it, many buyers put themselves on more than one buyer list).  Even with the new home inventory I still think we are around 2 months of inventory or a strong seller's market.  Now once we get around 2.5 months of inventory then it becomes a normal seller's market and once we get to 4 months we are in a neutral market.  From what I can tell, the big price increases have stopped for resale homes.
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And I think the new construction is trying to catch up before they slow down on the increases as well.
 
I just read an article that says builders are slowing releases to take advantage of rising prices.  I'm guessing the next article about builders jamming the exits trying to unload inventory will be along shortly.
 
30 year fixed rate reached >4.25% today with 10 year treasury spiking up 6% to 2.31% after FOMC meeting. 
I say Irvine home prices have "peaked" and ready to trend slightly down into second half of the year.  Inventory is now 439 and increasing.  It will be hovering above 700+ by end of the year.

 
With many areas not reaching peak pricing and not looking like they will if prices trend downward from here on in, I wonder if banks will dispose of more properties while they can.
 
Goriot said:
30 year fixed rate reached >4.25% today with 10 year treasury spiking up 6% to 2.31% after FOMC meeting. 
I say Irvine home prices have "peaked" and ready to trend slightly down into second half of the year.  Inventory is now 439 and increasing.  It will be hovering above 700+ by end of the year.
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Where are you getting your inventory number?  I see 407 active listings on MLS at 4pm.  The true tell of the market will there be higher sales volume with the additional inventory.  I mentioned a few months back that low inventory was affected sales volume.  If sales volume increases along with inventory then we know buyer demand is still strong, but if sales volume begins to fall then we might get a dip in prices.  Also, there are dozens of active listings that aren't even real listings in my mind since they have list prices that are beyond stupid and will never sell. 
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Goriot said:
30 year fixed rate reached >4.25% today with 10 year treasury spiking up 6% to 2.31% after FOMC meeting. 
I say Irvine home prices have "peaked" and ready to trend slightly down into second half of the year.  Inventory is now 439 and increasing.  It will be hovering above 700+ by end of the year.
Click to expand...
Where are you getting your inventory number?  I see 407 active listings on MLS at 4pm.  The true tell of the market will there be higher sales volume with the additional inventory.  I mentioned a few months back that low inventory was affected sales volume.  If sales volume increases along with inventory then we know buyer demand is still strong, but if sales volume begins to fall then we might get a dip in prices.  Also, there are dozens of active listings that aren't even real listings in my mind since they have list prices that are beyond stupid and will never sell.
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I guess your numbers are more reliable=).  My only source is Redfin with the foreclosure home and home sell by owners "checked" in the filer.  btw, that number just increased to 440 and 411 (without foreclosure homes) as of 4:44 p.m.
 
Goriot said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Goriot said:
30 year fixed rate reached >4.25% today with 10 year treasury spiking up 6% to 2.31% after FOMC meeting. 
I say Irvine home prices have "peaked" and ready to trend slightly down into second half of the year.  Inventory is now 439 and increasing.  It will be hovering above 700+ by end of the year.
Click to expand...
Where are you getting your inventory number?  I see 407 active listings on MLS at 4pm.  The true tell of the market will there be higher sales volume with the additional inventory.  I mentioned a few months back that low inventory was affected sales volume.  If sales volume increases along with inventory then we know buyer demand is still strong, but if sales volume begins to fall then we might get a dip in prices.  Also, there are dozens of active listings that aren't even real listings in my mind since they have list prices that are beyond stupid and will never sell.
Click to expand...

I guess your numbers are more reliable=).  My only source is Redfin with the foreclosure home and home sell by owners "checked" in the filer.  btw, that number just increased to 440 and 411 (without foreclosure homes) as of 4:44 p.m.
Click to expand...
My number includes all REOs and short sales but do not include homes for sale by owner. 
 
H        O        M        E        R said:
For the Realtors and Buyers out there right now... Is there still a lot of Chinese money and over asking offers?
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Yes and Yes.
(Lots of other-than-Chinese money, as well.)
 
IrvineRealtor said:
H        O        M        E        R said:
For the Realtors and Buyers out there right now... Is there still a lot of Chinese money and over asking offers?
Click to expand...

Yes and Yes.
(Lots of other-than-Chinese money, as well.)
Click to expand...

darn those rich Chinese folks... and those other folks  :P
 
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