Inventory creeping up?

[OpenSky]

 

[paperboyNC]

We went through the same process and reached the same conclusion.
NP resale and OH prices are equivalent.
PS and LR resale is much more expensive than OH.

Really? PS Resale much more expensive than OH?

PS Closed resale upgraded and landscapedhttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7213289
Taylor Morrison
3,483 sq ft
6,207 sq ft lot
HOA $134/mo
$1.465mm

Mello-roos $6,000/yr (some expiring in 2020)

Capella by Taylor Morrison Plan 3http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Villages-and-Neighborhoods/Orchard-Hills/Residence/Capella
3,223 sq ft
4,000 sq ft lot
HOA $279/mo
Starting at $1.377mm before upgrades and landscaping

Mello-roos $4,700/yr

The Portola Springs Taylor Morrison resale is clearly cheaper. The main advantage of the new home is that you can choose your upgrades / paint / etc while the resale might have some choices you don't find tasteful.

 

[Paris167]

a

 

[O Hills]

We went through the same process and reached the same conclusion.
NP resale and OH prices are equivalent.
PS and LR resale is much more expensive than OH.

Really? PS Resale much more expensive than OH?

PS Closed resale upgraded and landscapedhttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7213289
Taylor Morrison
3,483 sq ft
6,207 sq ft lot
HOA $134/mo
$1.465mm

Mello-roos $6,000/yr (some expiring in 2020)

Capella by Taylor Morrison Plan 3http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Villages-and-Neighborhoods/Orchard-Hills/Residence/Capella
3,223 sq ft
4,000 sq ft lot
HOA $279/mo
Starting at $1.377mm before upgrades and landscaping

Mello-roos $4,700/yr

The Portola Springs Taylor Morrison resale is clearly cheaper. The main advantage of the new home is that you can choose your upgrades / paint / etc while the resale might have some choices you don't find tasteful.

Yes, really.

Prices have changed a bit since we were looking, but rough numbers, OH and NP were breaking down to low 400's/SF.
PS was averaging high $400/SF to low $500/SF.
LR was $1M/SF 

Of course, there's a lot more that goes into it, but that's the general picture.

Bottom line, I wasnt seeing any resale that looked like a bargain compared to OH, when I was looking.
Although I have to admit, we didnt cast that wide of a net, so there may be deals out there.

 

[paperboyNC]

Yes, really.

Prices have changed a bit since we were looking, but rough numbers, OH and NP were breaking down to low 400's/SF.
PS was averaging high $400/SF to low $500/SF.
LR was $1M/SF 

Of course, there's a lot more that goes into it, but that's the general picture.

Bottom line, I wasnt seeing any resale that looked like a bargain compared to OH, when I was looking.
Although I have to admit, we didnt cast that wide of a net, so there may be deals out there.

The Taylor Morrison home I referenced sold for $420/sqft including a 6,200 sq fot lot. It sold close to list price.

Capella Plan 3 is $434/sqft with no upgrades, landscaping, window coverings, etc. If you budget 10% of the purchase price for all of these (low number) you are up to $477/sqft.

This PS home is listed at $412/sqft all upgrades and landscaping included and a 5000 sq ft lot.http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Native-Trl-92618/home/55629320

 

[O Hills]

The Taylor Morrison home I referenced sold for $420/sqft including a 6,200 sq fot lot. It sold close to list price.

Capella Plan 3 is $434/sqft with no upgrades, landscaping, window coverings, etc. If you budget 10% of the purchase price for all of these (low number) you are up to $477/sqft.

This PS home is listed at $412/sqft all upgrades and landscaping included and a 5000 sq ft lot.http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Native-Trl-92618/home/55629320

Right, but
- like I said prices have changed a bit.
- I won't spend anywhere near $140K on upgrades.
- look at a bigger PS sampling and you'll see 31 Shaman is currently listed at $481/SF, 37 Shaman is at $521/SF, 52 Peacevine is at $603/SF.

 

[OpenSky]

8)

 

[paperboyNC]

Right, but
- like I said prices have changed a bit.
- I won't spend anywhere near $140K on upgrades.
- look at a bigger PS sampling and you'll see 31 Shaman is currently listed at $481/SF, 37 Shaman is at $521/SF, 52 Peacevine is at $603/SF.

I'm not just talking about upgrades, I'm talking about upgrades, window coverings and landscaping. A lot of buyers spend 10% on landscaping alone (including putting in an outdoor kitchen, shade structure, etc.) (though it may be less with a tiny lot). Remember you also have to do front landscaping which typically includes replacing the whole drive-way and steps.

Listed prices mean absolutely nothing as anyone can list a home for WTF prices. When looking at resales you have to look at closed sales and prices of homes in escrow (a realtor can help you get this). Considering 29 Native Trail is still available why would anyone pay a ton more for the same home?

I'm not sure why you are even arguing. Orchard Hills has a more desirable location and is a gated community and is pretty much universally accepted to sell at a premium to most of Irvine. If you rank the new / relatively new communities in Irvine here's what you'd get:

Most expensive at top
#1 Laguna Altura / Hidden Canyon
#2 Orchard Hills
#3 Cypress Village
#4 Stonegate
#5 Portola Springs / Greak Park

When you start saying that Portola Springs is more expensive than Orchard Hills.......... People are going to question you.

 

[O Hills]

Right, but
- like I said prices have changed a bit.
- I won't spend anywhere near $140K on upgrades.
- look at a bigger PS sampling and you'll see 31 Shaman is currently listed at $481/SF, 37 Shaman is at $521/SF, 52 Peacevine is at $603/SF.

I'm not just talking about upgrades, I'm talking about upgrades, window coverings and landscaping. A lot of buyers spend 10% on landscaping alone (including putting in an outdoor kitchen, shade structure, etc.) (though it may be less with a tiny lot). Remember you also have to do front landscaping which typically includes replacing the whole drive-way and steps.

Listed prices mean absolutely nothing as anyone can list a home for WTF prices. When looking at resales you have to look at closed sales and prices of homes in escrow (a realtor can help you get this). Considering 29 Native Trail is still available why would anyone pay a ton more for the same home?

I'm not sure why you are even arguing. Orchard Hills has a more desirable location and is a gated community and is pretty much universally accepted to sell at a premium to most of Irvine. If you rank the new / relatively new communities in Irvine here's what you'd get:

Most expensive at top
#1 Laguna Altura / Hidden Canyon
#2 Orchard Hills
#3 Cypress Village
#4 Stonegate
#5 Portola Springs / Greak Park

When you start saying that Portola Springs is more expensive than Orchard Hills.......... People are going to question you.

A little bit of legwork and you get upgrades and landscaping done for quite a bit less than 10%.

Listing price means everything when you're considering where to buy, esp. since Irvine properties sell for 98% of list price (at least that's what I've read and it seems accurate given how things were flying off the market just a few months ago).

But, I'm not arguing, just explaining the breakdown. 
A number of PS homes closed in the high $400/SF to low $500 SF range.
All in, even assuming 10% upgrades/landscaping, I will be much lower.

There are other costs to factor in, MR, HOA, amenities, lack of yard, but for me new made the most sense.

It does seem like the market is softening so there may be relative bargains to be had-- good luck.

 

[OpenSky]

 

[O Hills]

Right, but
- like I said prices have changed a bit.
- I won't spend anywhere near $140K on upgrades.
- look at a bigger PS sampling and you'll see 31 Shaman is currently listed at $481/SF, 37 Shaman is at $521/SF, 52 Peacevine is at $603/SF.

I'm not just talking about upgrades, I'm talking about upgrades, window coverings and landscaping. A lot of buyers spend 10% on landscaping alone (including putting in an outdoor kitchen, shade structure, etc.) (though it may be less with a tiny lot). Remember you also have to do front landscaping which typically includes replacing the whole drive-way and steps.

Listed prices mean absolutely nothing as anyone can list a home for WTF prices. When looking at resales you have to look at closed sales and prices of homes in escrow (a realtor can help you get this). Considering 29 Native Trail is still available why would anyone pay a ton more for the same home?

I'm not sure why you are even arguing. Orchard Hills has a more desirable location and is a gated community and is pretty much universally accepted to sell at a premium to most of Irvine. If you rank the new / relatively new communities in Irvine here's what you'd get:

Most expensive at top
#1 Laguna Altura / Hidden Canyon
#2 Orchard Hills
#3 Cypress Village
#4 Stonegate
#5 Portola Springs / Greak Park

When you start saying that Portola Springs is more expensive than Orchard Hills.......... People are going to question you.

A little bit of legwork and you get upgrades and landscaping done for quite a bit less than 10%.

Listing price means everything when you're considering where to buy, esp. since Irvine properties sell for 98% of list price (at least that's what I've read and it seems accurate given how things were flying off the market just a few months ago).

But, I'm not arguing, just explaining the breakdown. 
A number of PS homes closed in the high $400/SF to low $500 SF range.
All in, even assuing 10% upgrades/lansdscaping, I will be much lower.

There are other costs to factor in, MR, HOA, ammenities, lack of yard, but for me new made the most sense.

It does seem like the market is softening so there may be relative bargains to be had-- good luck.

98% from the final listing price. The number of properties that are discounted continues to rise, as do the discounts. Still, there are opportunities and everything's negotiable. Well, unless you're buying new in OH  >

Yep, sucks. 

 

[OpenSky]

 

[paperboyNC]

98% from the final listing price. The number of properties that are discounted continues to rise, as do the discounts. Still, there are opportunities and everything's negotiable. Well, unless you're buying new in OH  >

Exactly. Here's some examples:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Prickly-Pear-92618/home/55244887
Listed for $850k, now $780k. If it closes $765k it will register at 98% while it is really 90%
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Sacred-Path-92618/home/51685202
Delisted now - was listed for $1.1 million and really worth around $875k. It was then delisted and doesn't count against the 98% stat

 

[jmoney74]

98% from the final listing price. The number of properties that are discounted continues to rise, as do the discounts. Still, there are opportunities and everything's negotiable. Well, unless you're buying new in OH  >

Exactly. Here's some examples:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Prickly-Pear-92618/home/55244887
Listed for $850k, now $780k. If it closes $765k it will register at 98% while it is really 90%
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Sacred-Path-92618/home/51685202
Delisted now - was listed for $1.1 million and really worth around $875k. It was then delisted and doesn't count against the 98% stat

The demand is still there to buy homes.. just that most people now have to realize that they have to price their homes right to sell.

 

[bones]

sadf

 

[paperboyNC]

A little bit of legwork and you get upgrades and landscaping done for quite a bit less than 10%.

Listing price means everything when you're considering where to buy, esp. since Irvine properties sell for 98% of list price (at least that's what I've read and it seems accurate given how things were flying off the market just a few months ago).

But, I'm not arguing, just explaining the breakdown. 
A number of PS homes closed in the high $400/SF to low $500 SF range.
All in, even assuming 10% upgrades/landscaping, I will be much lower.

There are other costs to factor in, MR, HOA, amenities, lack of yard, but for me new made the most sense.

It does seem like the market is softening so there may be relative bargains to be had-- good luck.

Here's the list of closed homes in the last six months over $425/sqft and over $1mm price in Portola Springs:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Small-Grv-92618/home/7219530
- $508/sq ft
- over 10,000 sq ft lot
- likely $400k - 500k in upgrades, landscaping, pool etc
- unobstructed views
- single loaded street
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Prairie-92618/home/7203756
- $439/sq ft
-  6000 sq ft lot
- "more upgrades than a model home"

That's it. Two homes and only one in the "high 400s, low 500s" you describe.

If you look at over $1mm and over $400/sqft there are more:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7213289
- the home I linked earlier
- $421/sq ft
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-Desert-Bloom-92618/home/45353521
- $411/sq ft
- IMO something is wrong with this listing
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/228-Desert-Bloom-92618/home/53039650
- $401/ sq ft
- New Construction

I'd love to see your list of "A number of PS homes closed in the high $400/SF to low $500 SF range." when I only see one and one that had truly exceptional views, lot and upgrades.

EDIT TO ADD ALL TIME SALES

Looking at redfin for the following criteria:
- Closed Sales All Time
- Portola Springs
- Over $1mm price
- Over $450 / sq ft

only two more show up
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Shaman-92618/home/7203783
$482/sq ft
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/41-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7217598
$476/sq ft

Both homes have around 7,000 sq ft lots and a lot of upgrades / expensive landscaping. The buyers likely overpaid due to the lack of inventory in the market as well.

I'd love to see a single Orchard Hills home that would cost less than one of these three "high 400s, low 500s" Portola Springs closed sales for the same size lot and all of the upgrades and landscaping included.

 

[O Hills]

A little bit of legwork and you get upgrades and landscaping done for quite a bit less than 10%.

Listing price means everything when you're considering where to buy, esp. since Irvine properties sell for 98% of list price (at least that's what I've read and it seems accurate given how things were flying off the market just a few months ago).

But, I'm not arguing, just explaining the breakdown. 
A number of PS homes closed in the high $400/SF to low $500 SF range.
All in, even assuming 10% upgrades/landscaping, I will be much lower.

There are other costs to factor in, MR, HOA, amenities, lack of yard, but for me new made the most sense.

It does seem like the market is softening so there may be relative bargains to be had-- good luck.

Here's the list of closed homes in the last six months over $425/sqft and over $1mm price in Portola Springs:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Small-Grv-92618/home/7219530
- $508/sq ft
- over 10,000 sq ft lot
- likely $400k - 500k in upgrades, landscaping, pool etc
- unobstructed views
- single loaded street
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Prairie-92618/home/7203756
- $439/sq ft
-  6000 sq ft lot
- "more upgrades than a model home"

That's it. Two homes and only one in the "high 400s, low 500s" you describe.

If you look at over $1mm and over $400/sqft there are more:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7213289
- the home I linked earlier
- $421/sq ft
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-Desert-Bloom-92618/home/45353521
- $411/sq ft
- IMO something is wrong with this listing
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/228-Desert-Bloom-92618/home/53039650
- $401/ sq ft
- New Construction

I'd love to see your list of "A number of PS homes closed in the high $400/SF to low $500 SF range." when I only see one and one that had truly exceptional views, lot and upgrades.

EDIT TO ADD ALL TIME SALES

Looking at redfin for the following criteria:
- Closed Sales All Time
- Portola Springs
- Over $1mm price
- Over $450 / sq ft

only two more show up
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Shaman-92618/home/7203783
$482/sq ft
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/41-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7217598
$476/sq ft

Both homes have around 7,000 sq ft lots and a lot of upgrades / expensive landscaping. The buyers likely overpaid due to the lack of inventory in the market as well.

I'd love to see a single Orchard Hills home that would cost less than one of these three "high 400s, low 500s" Portola Springs closed sales for the same size lot and all of the upgrades and landscaping included.

I already told you that mine is.
You're welcome.

 

[paperboyNC]

I'd love to see a single Orchard Hills home that would cost less than one of these three "high 400s, low 500s" Portola Springs closed sales for the same size lot and all of the upgrades and landscaping included.

I already told you that mine is.
You're welcome.

What's your lot size?
Purchase Price?
Square footage?
How much will you spend on upgrades to make it the same or better than any of those three homes?
How much will you spend on landscaping to make it the same or better than any of those three homes?
How much will you spend on window coverings to make it the same or better than any of those three homes?

Now add the purchase price to the bottom 3 numbers, divide by the square footage, include a lot size adjustment and compare.

 

[O Hills]

I'd love to see a single Orchard Hills home that would cost less than one of these three "high 400s, low 500s" Portola Springs closed sales for the same size lot and all of the upgrades and landscaping included.

I already told you that mine is.
You're welcome.

What's your lot size?
Purchase Price?
Square footage?
How much will you spend on upgrades to make it the same or better than any of those three homes?
How much will you spend on landscaping to make it the same or better than any of those three homes?
How much will you spend on window coverings to make it the same or better than any of those three homes?

Now add the purchase price to the bottom 3 numbers, divide by the square footage, include a lot size adjustment and compare.

OK  :

 

[OpenSky]

: