Inventory creeping up?

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Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
 
cowlemon said:
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
Click to expand...
rickr said:
324 on Redfin this morning.
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Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price). 
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
cowlemon said:
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
Click to expand...
rickr said:
324 on Redfin this morning.
Click to expand...
Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price). 
Click to expand...

The invemtory going up though is still a positive indicator that the market is beginning to realize the absurdity of 20-30% increases in a year.
 
qwerty said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
cowlemon said:
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
Click to expand...
rickr said:
324 on Redfin this morning.
Click to expand...
Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price). 
Click to expand...

The invemtory going up though is still a positive indicator that the market is beginning to realize the absurdity of 20-30% increases in a year.
Click to expand...
Increasing inventory and increasing prices will help to level out the demand/supply equilibrium.  We are going in the right direction but got a long way to go.  Every resale home that I've made an offer on in the past 3 years had multiple offers, even one just last week.
 
qwerty said:
The invemtory going up though is still a positive indicator that the market is beginning to realize the absurdity of 20-30% increases in a year.
Click to expand...
Depends.  Is inventory up because transactions are dropping?  Or because more sellers are coming to market?  If the latter, then buyers may not have realized anything, while sellers are just making offers [to sell] that they can't refuse.
 
daedalus said:
qwerty said:
The invemtory going up though is still a positive indicator that the market is beginning to realize the absurdity of 20-30% increases in a year.
Click to expand...
Depends.  Is inventory up because transactions are dropping?  Or because more sellers are coming to market?  If the latter, then buyers may not have realized anything, while sellers are just making offers [to sell] that they can't refuse.
Click to expand...

The formula is tied together. Any way you slice it, inventory going up is better for the buyer
 
I assume the inventory is based on MLS listings.  How about new homes?  TIC has been releasing a steady supply, but Fivepoints will have 700+ homes at the end of this year and next year
 
Marty said:
I assume the inventory is based on MLS listings.  How about new homes?  TIC has been releasing a steady supply, but Fivepoints will have 700+ homes at the end of this year and next year
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There's no true source to determine how many new homes are on the market.  The tricky part is that those 700+ homes would be sold over 6-12 months, remember there's only one phase that's available at a time.
 
It will be interesting to see how long the lists are to get a home. To be a part of the first phase of many in the Great Park has some appeal.  Saratoga with a driveway would be nice. (Or a 3CWG with one space tandem to accommodate four cars  :D)
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Marty said:
I assume the inventory is based on MLS listings.  How about new homes?  TIC has been releasing a steady supply, but Fivepoints will have 700+ homes at the end of this year and next year
Click to expand...
There's no true source to determine how many new homes are on the market.  The tricky part is that those 700+ homes would be sold over 6-12 months, remember there's only one phase that's available at a time.
Click to expand...

How about the Ryness Report?  Do you get access to that?  I used to get that report back in 2008 or so to see how the new homes were selling
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
cowlemon said:
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
Click to expand...
rickr said:
324 on Redfin this morning.
Click to expand...
Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price).
Click to expand...

You never give me good news.
 
BunkMoreland said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
cowlemon said:
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
Click to expand...
rickr said:
324 on Redfin this morning.
Click to expand...
Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price).
Click to expand...

You never give me good news.
Click to expand...
I know, I hate being a Debbie Downer but I just speak the truth.  I have a lot of frustrated buyers who have to deal with one multiple offer situation after another.  Most are putting more than 20% down and waiving the appraisal contingency with no luck.  It seems like almost every home that I made an offer on this year has had multiple offers (anywhere from 2-3 to 10+).  That tells me there are a lot of buyers out there chasing the same homes.
 
During the open house hire Qwerty's relatives to park their low rider Impalas in front of the home with air brushed naked ladies on the car body. The bean burner junky cars with very expensive alloy wheels should seal the fate of you being the only bid.  Do that every weekend and that should scare off all FCBs and the tactic is totally legal.
 
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