INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND

[morekaos]

?.confirmation

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen DENIES economy is in recession but admits it's 'slowing down': Biden official says 9.1% inflation is 'too high' but 'signs' of a downturn aren't there
?        Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the economy slowing down was 'necessary and appropriate' for its longterm health during a Meet The Press interview
?        The Biden official was asked if Americans should be 'preparing' for a recession
?        It comes as the economy becomes a growing problem for Democrats heading into November's midterm elections
?        President Biden also called the inflation rate too high but said the data was 'out of date'
?        Yellen and Biden met with the president's other economic advisers on Friday
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ES-economy-recession-admits-slowing-down.html

 

[morekaos]

Glorious Inflation News, Comrades!  You're
Getting Poorer Slightly Less Quickly


Inflation came in a smidge under expectations in July and ? this time, for sure, they mean it ? Presidentish Joe Biden?s economy has bottomed out and prosperity is just around the corner. To hear CNN and other state organs tell the story, that is. Markets are up on the news, probably because traders expect the Fed to use any handy excuse to stop the interest rate hikes. I haven?t seen this big a celebration since our most recent battlefield victory over Eastasia, with whom Oceania has always been at war. Unless we?ve always been at war with Eurasia. Just like the glorious economic news,
Falling gas and food prices aren?t much to celebrate, I?m sorry to say. The food price reprieve is likely only temporary. The effects of various droughts and fertilizer shortages have yet to make themselves fully felt. And beef prices are down because of a big cull. The next herds will be necessary smaller, and prices correspondingly higher.
As for gas prices, $4 is still nearly twice what we were paying when Biden was sworn in last year. Until and unless his administration ends its war on domestic energy production, $2.20 gas will remain in the rearview mirror.
The real measure of the economy under Biden?s tax-and-spend and borrow-and-regulate regime is take-home pay.
They also note that inflation-adjusted weekly pay is ?down for a record 16th consecutive month.?
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/202...getting-poorer-slightly-less-quickly-n1619852

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Glorious Inflation News, Comrades!  You're
Getting Poorer Slightly Less Quickly


Inflation came in a smidge under expectations in July and ? this time, for sure, they mean it ? Presidentish Joe Biden?s economy has bottomed out and prosperity is just around the corner. To hear CNN and other state organs tell the story, that is. Markets are up on the news, probably because traders expect the Fed to use any handy excuse to stop the interest rate hikes. I haven?t seen this big a celebration since our most recent battlefield victory over Eastasia, with whom Oceania has always been at war. Unless we?ve always been at war with Eurasia. Just like the glorious economic news,
Falling gas and food prices aren?t much to celebrate, I?m sorry to say. The food price reprieve is likely only temporary. The effects of various droughts and fertilizer shortages have yet to make themselves fully felt. And beef prices are down because of a big cull. The next herds will be necessary smaller, and prices correspondingly higher.
As for gas prices, $4 is still nearly twice what we were paying when Biden was sworn in last year. Until and unless his administration ends its war on domestic energy production, $2.20 gas will remain in the rearview mirror.
The real measure of the economy under Biden?s tax-and-spend and borrow-and-regulate regime is take-home pay.
They also note that inflation-adjusted weekly pay is ?down for a record 16th consecutive month.?
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/202...getting-poorer-slightly-less-quickly-n1619852

Zero inflation in July??.makes me laugh so hard. Either , they are not shopping, eating, or sheltering. Like I said, all politicians, ALL, are self serving.

 

[Liar Loan]

 

[daedalus]

I just paid about 1/3 less for some ribeye steaks this week than I have been this year from the same Costco.  Deflation is starting to take hold!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Gas is down, flights are down... maybe inflation is seasonal?

 

[nosuchreality]

I just paid about 1/3 less for some ribeye steaks this week than I have been this year from the same Costco.  Deflation is starting to take hold!

I?ve notice that too.  Instead of paying twice as much or more than I was before pandemic, I?m paying a third less from peak but still 50% more than before.

 

[OCtoSV]

I just paid about 1/3 less for some ribeye steaks this week than I have been this year from the same Costco.  Deflation is starting to take hold!

I?ve notice that too.  Instead of paying twice as much or more than I was before pandemic, I?m paying a third less from peak but still 50% more than before.

I have read there are large herd cullings happening now due to feed shortages and that future herds will be smaller with correspondingly much higher prices.

 

[morekaos]

Yah..inflation has peaked and we are not in any recession?Squirrel!

A ?Tsunami of Shutoffs?: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind on Energy Bills
Surging electricity prices spur worst-ever crisis in late utility payments.

The Nice household is one of some 20 million across the country?about 1 in 6 American homes?that have fallen behind on their utility bills. It is, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada), the worst crisis the group has ever documented. Underpinning those numbers is a blistering surge in electricity prices, propelled by the soaring cost of natural gas.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ind-on-payments-facing-shutoffs?sref=zFmdEBXN
https://youtu.be/xoyoW9dP1Bs

 

[Liar Loan]

Pain!!  Sounds familiar!!  It's nice to know that JPow is catching on.

Dow plunges more than 1,000 after Powell says Americans should expect ?pain?

The stock market nosedived Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said American households and businesses can expect to experience ?pain? and job losses as the central bank aims to bring down red-hot inflation.

?These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation,? Powell said. ?But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.?

Powell?s comments were largely in line with the Fed?s previous talking points, but they nonetheless sent markets nosediving.
https://nypost.com/2022/08/26/fed-c...hould-expect-pain-in-fight-against-inflation/

 

[irvinebullhousing]

In the last 2 1/2 years 5 Trillions fiscal stimulus, 5 Trillions financial stimulus = 10 Trillions added to the economy. But its not just covid panic giveaway. Its has been for the last decade and more of quantative easing, money printing, and historic suppress low rate that bring us to where we are today.

Yes, JPowell is starting to acting like how a FED should act, which is to raise rate and cause pain. Free money, will create this bubble.

As far I am concern, the pain is neccessary and is needed. They are way behind, and the raising path must continue and forcefully without waiver. Who is paying for all this 10 Trillions, its never free. EVERYONE, except for the financial speculators, they just walk away and push it to the tax payers.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I think inflation will probably come down to 4-5% by the end of the year but the hard part will be getting it to 2%, that's where the "pain" will come.

 

[morekaos]

https://youtu.be/dDpQmCGjEPc

 

[woodburyowner]

I think inflation will probably come down to 4-5% by the end of the year but the hard part will be getting it to 2%, that's where the "pain" will come.

Inflation is currently at 8.5%.  No way it gets to 4-5% by the end of the year.  The major components that drive the inflation number do not change that quickly.  The components that do (ie. gas) only make up a small part of the overall calculation (which everyone seems to focus on since they see it everyday).  Housing cost is still increasing..

 

[OCtoSV]

I think inflation will probably come down to 4-5% by the end of the year but the hard part will be getting it to 2%, that's where the "pain" will come.

Inflation is currently at 8.5%.  No way it gets to 4-5% by the end of the year.  The major components that drive the inflation number do not change that quickly.  The components that do (ie. gas) only make up a small part of the overall calculation (which everyone seems to focus on since they see it everyday).  Housing cost is still increasing..

Thank you. I love my Trojan brother but stating inflation will fall that much in 4 months shows a gross misunderstanding of the impact of deglobalization on the US economy and the persistence of rent inflation where housing makes up 40% of PCE as base pillars of inflation. I see the Fed hiking until inflation gets down to 6% or so, and then they'll let everyone know that is the new normal. They can't get it any lower unless we re-embrace China mfg and Russian oil and nat gas.

We've had 40 yrs of declining interest rates which made RE a no brainer long position. Only those over 60 likely experienced the early 80s and early 90s. Things are going to get bumpy and leverage at today's valuations is high risk. Powell is really feeling his inner Volcker.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Agree, it will be a miracle if we drop to 4-5 % inflation by the end of the year. If we directly involve in a shooting war with China/Russia or any of the foes where a few of our missles from one of our Nuke Sub lauches, we will have panic like we have never seen. That would do it and it still a possibility given the hostilities between Taiwan and China some how pulled a direct involvement of the United States. Or FED will just have to raise 200 point next increase. Not likely that it would happen, but it could bring inflation down fairly fast. Can it be done, yes it can, will it happen, not likely.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I think inflation will probably come down to 4-5% by the end of the year but the hard part will be getting it to 2%, that's where the "pain" will come.

Inflation is currently at 8.5%.  No way it gets to 4-5% by the end of the year.  The major components that drive the inflation number do not change that quickly.  The components that do (ie. gas) only make up a small part of the overall calculation (which everyone seems to focus on since they see it everyday).  Housing cost is still increasing..

It will if you look at what is happen with prices for most commodities like wheat, lumber, corn, copper, steel, etc...commodity prices have been very volatile in the past few years.  Also, the economy will continue to slow which will put more pressure on prices.  I'm hearing that used are prices at the auctions are starting to drop materially so it won't be long until that is seen on the retail side.  Housing costs will keep inflation at 4-5% and that will be the last thing that needs to roll over before we got back to 2% inflation.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I think inflation will probably come down to 4-5% by the end of the year but the hard part will be getting it to 2%, that's where the "pain" will come.

Inflation is currently at 8.5%.  No way it gets to 4-5% by the end of the year.  The major components that drive the inflation number do not change that quickly.  The components that do (ie. gas) only make up a small part of the overall calculation (which everyone seems to focus on since they see it everyday).  Housing cost is still increasing..

Thank you. I love my Trojan brother but stating inflation will fall that much in 4 months shows a gross misunderstanding of the impact of deglobalization on the US economy and the persistence of rent inflation where housing makes up 40% of PCE as base pillars of inflation. I see the Fed hiking until inflation gets down to 6% or so, and then they'll let everyone know that is the new normal. They can't get it any lower unless we re-embrace China mfg and Russian oil and nat gas.

We've had 40 yrs of declining interest rates which made RE a no brainer long position. Only those over 60 likely experienced the early 80s and early 90s. Things are going to get bumpy and leverage at today's valuations is high risk. Powell is really feeling his inner Volcker.

If inflation stays around 6% like you think it will, the Fed will keep increasing rates.  Jerome is out to squash inflation and I believe that he'll do what needs to be done.  The wild card will be the labor market and how long it'll take for wage pressure to ease up.  The markets thinking that the Fed will pivot was laughable.  If they do, we'll get a repeat of the late 70s and early 80s.  When the Fed is done hiking rates, they'll probably keep them there at least 6-12 months if not longer to ensure that inflation won't reignite.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I think inflation will probably come down to 4-5% by the end of the year but the hard part will be getting it to 2%, that's where the "pain" will come.

Inflation is currently at 8.5%.  No way it gets to 4-5% by the end of the year.  The major components that drive the inflation number do not change that quickly.  The components that do (ie. gas) only make up a small part of the overall calculation (which everyone seems to focus on since they see it everyday).  Housing cost is still increasing..

Thank you. I love my Trojan brother but stating inflation will fall that much in 4 months shows a gross misunderstanding of the impact of deglobalization on the US economy and the persistence of rent inflation where housing makes up 40% of PCE as base pillars of inflation. I see the Fed hiking until inflation gets down to 6% or so, and then they'll let everyone know that is the new normal. They can't get it any lower unless we re-embrace China mfg and Russian oil and nat gas.

We've had 40 yrs of declining interest rates which made RE a no brainer long position. Only those over 60 likely experienced the early 80s and early 90s. Things are going to get bumpy and leverage at today's valuations is high risk. Powell is really feeling his inner Volcker.

If inflation stays around 6% like you think it will, the Fed will keep increasing rates.  Jerome is out to squash inflation and I believe that he'll do what needs to be done.  The wild card will be the labor market and how long it'll take for wage pressure to ease up.  The markets thinking that the Fed will pivot was laughable.  If they do, we'll get a repeat of the late 70s and early 80s.  When the Fed is done hiking rates, they'll probably keep them there at least 6-12 months if not longer to ensure that inflation won't reignite.

Could 6 % CPI be the new 2 % in the past decades?

Higher inflation is the way to erode government debts.

Let's not forget we are at 130% GDP and to lower to debts we need higher inflation to slowly work off the massive government borrowed.

 

[OCtoSV]

I think inflation will probably come down to 4-5% by the end of the year but the hard part will be getting it to 2%, that's where the "pain" will come.

Inflation is currently at 8.5%.  No way it gets to 4-5% by the end of the year.  The major components that drive the inflation number do not change that quickly.  The components that do (ie. gas) only make up a small part of the overall calculation (which everyone seems to focus on since they see it everyday).  Housing cost is still increasing..

Thank you. I love my Trojan brother but stating inflation will fall that much in 4 months shows a gross misunderstanding of the impact of deglobalization on the US economy and the persistence of rent inflation where housing makes up 40% of PCE as base pillars of inflation. I see the Fed hiking until inflation gets down to 6% or so, and then they'll let everyone know that is the new normal. They can't get it any lower unless we re-embrace China mfg and Russian oil and nat gas.

We've had 40 yrs of declining interest rates which made RE a no brainer long position. Only those over 60 likely experienced the early 80s and early 90s. Things are going to get bumpy and leverage at today's valuations is high risk. Powell is really feeling his inner Volcker.

If inflation stays around 6% like you think it will, the Fed will keep increasing rates.  Jerome is out to squash inflation and I believe that he'll do what needs to be done.  The wild card will be the labor market and how long it'll take for wage pressure to ease up.  The markets thinking that the Fed will pivot was laughable.  If they do, we'll get a repeat of the late 70s and early 80s.  When the Fed is done hiking rates, they'll probably keep them there at least 6-12 months if not longer to ensure that inflation won't reignite.

Could 6 % CPI be the new 2 % in the past decades?

Higher inflation is the way to erode government debts.

Let's not forget we are at 130% GDP and to lower to debts we need higher inflation to slowly work off the massive government borrowed.

BINGO - give that poster a prize. Of course the Fed and UST can't come out and discuss this strategy, but if you look at what is in motion a higher neutral rate is a good tool to inflate away the debt