IHB needs a resident bull on board

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
caliguy's article from Laguna Beach resident, high tax paying, of the BIA, and OC tax board, Kristine Thalman, reminded me of this from Larry Webb in the 90s. BTW, I have heard good things about Larry, and how her runs John Laing. I hear he doesn't have his head in the sand like the last bust, but ...





<p>THE REGISTER BUSINESS BOARD</p>

Report raises issue of need for housing to meet regional growth

<p>August 2, 1992</p>

<p>Byline: Larry Webb</p>

<p>Last month, the Southern California Association of Governments issued a sobering forecast. In just 18 years, our region's population will grow by 6 million people, the equivalent of adding 1 1/2 Orange Counties to our already-crowded suburbs and cities.</p>

<p>In announcing these findings, SCAG's principal planner, David Stein, had cautionary words for Orange County: "We are saying to Orange now, `You've got to build low- and moderate-income housing. You can't push it all off to Riverside and San Bernardino.' "


I suppose the first question we must ask in response is whether there really will be a shortage of housing. Given the slow market conditions that permeate the county, it is hard to imagine that we will be unable to meet the demand for homes.</p>

<p>But if SCAG is anywhere close to the right ballpark with its estimate, and I believe it is, existing inventories will disappear faster than we can replace them, and a shortage will become very real. </p>

<p>Orange County's building industry meet an unprecedented demand for housing? I know we can do our part, because I have great faith in the capability, positive energy and foresight of the people who work in this business. But if misconceptions and distrust continue to challenge us at every turn, we might be unable to provide even the higher-priced homes, not to mention the more affordable homes, that this growth will demand. </p>

<p>Successfully meeting the future need for housing in our region will demand that our industry, our cities and our citizens form public/ private partnerships, creating new planning guidelines, new regulations and a new spirit of cooperation. </p>

<p>Homebuilders understand this, and governments also see the necessity for the change, but I am concerned that many citizens, who have rallied in opposition to higher-density and more affordable projects, are not ready to get on the bandwagon. Climbing aboard would be easier if there was clearer understanding of the building industry. ></p>

<p>In reality, I am a homebuilder and I love to build homes. I get a great deal of satisfaction from seeing families move into and enjoy a home my company has built. I think in terms of homes, not units and communities, not tracts. I believe in a long-term perspective. And I just can't build today without concern about tomorrow. </p>

<p>This reflects the views of most of the building industry, which isn't to imply that we are monolithic. We are spirited competitors. We are labor and management, dream weavers and bean counters. We are engineers and day laborers, clerks, carpenters and customer-service representatives. If we have a fault, I think it's that we apologize too much. </p>

<p>We shouldn't apologize for what County looks like. Yes, there are some homes where orange groves used to be, but we have handled the population growth in a way that preserves open space, handles traffic with scenic boulevards instead of unsightly strips, and provides quality schools, libraries and public facilities despite the crushing effects of the state's shrinking budget.</p>

<p>We have designed homes that are the envy of the nation, so much so that national magazines such as Builder complain of having so many good projects to choose from that they sometimes have trouble giving their publications regional balance. </p>

<p>Neither should we apologize for our people. These are, after all, the people who created Home Aid, the county's most successful creator of shelter for our transitionally homeless. More than 900 builders, developers, planners, designers, subcontractors, suppliers and others have pitched in to build or refurbish 11 homeless shelters offering 197 beds. The volunteer effort, created by the Orange County Building Industry Association, has contributed more than $2.5 million to date and contin ues to grow, even as our industry suffers through a difficult downturn.</p>

<p>Why do we turn out for the Home Aid benefits and put our time and resources into creating new homeless shelters? This year's Home Aid chairman, Bob Albertson of Presley of Southern California, answered: "We are in this because we can give something back to the community where we make our living. Quite simply, it is the right thing to do." </p>

<p>We also are returning something to our community in Rancho Santa Margarita, where the Santa Margarita Co. and The Fieldstone joined forces with Habitat for Humanity to provide hope and homes to dozens of families. Our Environmental Committee is returning something by sponsoring tree plantings countywide, filling parks with trees donated by building-industry people. And in benefits, golf tournaments and fund-raisers for charities from Brea San Clemente, the people who build homes support the communities where they make their living.</p>

<p>There will probably always be negative stereotypes of builders, but a more credible and positive generalization would be to see us as people who work hard to help make Orange County a better place to live. Of course, to do our job, we have to put homes where they weren't before, and many people just can't accept that.</p>

<p>Unfortunately, they're going to have to, because 6 million more people are going to need a place to live by 2010. To meet that need, we're going to have to find homes for more than 300,000 new people a year on average. </p>

<p>Some would rather we not meet the demand, their logic being that if we don't build it, they won't come. But this is head-in-the-sand logic, because it fails to consider that a substantial majority of our region's growth will come from our children and grandchildren, not just from immigration. Who is going to be the first to volunteer to send their offspring to Omaha because there's no room for them here? If it continues to take three, five, even 10 years to get a project approved because of people who lack a regional perspective, we will not be able to meet the challenge. ></p>

<p>And if we fail to meet this challenge, it doesn't matter how hard we work to make our communities better places to live, because all of Southern California will be a much worse place to call home.</p>

<p>Based in Newport Beach, Larry Webb oversees homebuilding in Los Angeles and Orange counties, as well as the Inland Empire, San Diego and Antelope Valley markets for A-M Homes. He also is chairman of the public affairs committee of the Building Industry Association/ Orange County Region. </p>

<p>The Register Business Board is composed of 24 Orange business and economic leaders. </p>

<p>Larry Webb is President, A-M Homes So. California Division</p>
 
<p>graph</p>

<p>Larry is one of the best guys in the new home industry. I worked with him when that article was written. The company I was with purchased AM Homes about that point in time and Larry became a Division President in our company.</p>

<p>He has a degree in Urban Planning from Harvard and was a teacher before the building gig. Very unique fellow.</p>

<p>Regards</p>
 
<p>Credit Suisse CEO sees credit crisis nadir in months</p>

<p><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL1645033720080216?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=10010">http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL1645033720080216?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=10010</a></p>

<p>"There would undoubtedly be much greater confidence if prices in the U.S. real estate market, where the crisis originated, finally stabilized. That could happen as soon as the middle of this year. But we are preparing for the possibility that the crisis continues for some time," he said</p>

<p>...</p>

<p>"As soon as confidence returns, things will probably go up quickly again," he said.</p>
 
Whenever I read crap like the quote above, I always wonder if a guy who is smart enough to be CEO actually believes the stupid things he says, or if he is just praying it comes true because he knows his company is in such deep trouble he needs it to happen. I would guess it is the latter...





Just for the record, there is no chance of the credit problems being resolved this year. Nobody even knows the full extent of the problem because it is so large it defies analysis and comprehension. Also, as confidence returns, prices will not go up quickly again.
 
<p> <strong>Competing Home Price Data — the Inside Story</strong>


<em>By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist </em>

<p>http://www.realtor.org/research/commentary_competing.html</p>

</p>
 
<a title="Permanent Link: O.C. home affordability highest in three years" rel="bookmark" href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/19/oc-home-affordability-highest-in-three-years/">O.C. home affordability highest in three years</a>

<h4>February 19th, 2008 · <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/19/oc-home-affordability-highest-in-three-years/#comments">14 Comments</a> · posted by Jeff Collins</h4>



<p>http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/19/oc-home-affordability-highest-in-three-years/</p>
 
<p><a href="http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=395">http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=395</a></p>

<p> <img alt="" src="http://people-press.org/reports/images/395-9.gif" /></p>

<p>Two-thirds of all homeowners (67%) say that, over the past few years, the value of their own home has increased, but that represents a substantial decline since October 2006 (84%). In addition, the proportion of homeowners saying their house value has increased "a lot" has fallen from 46% then to 25% today. In this case, there are no substantive differences between mortgage holders and those who own their homes outright.


</p>
 
<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ7_SclxgPoI&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ7_SclxgPoI&refer=home</a></p>

<p>`Soft, But Stable' </p>

<p>``The past five months' sales activity has been very soft, but stable,'' said Lawrence Yun, the real-estate agents group's chief economist. A fiscal stimulus that included tax cuts and relaxed restrictions on so-called jumbo mortgage loans may lead to better sales late this year, he said. </p>
 
<p><a title="Permanent Link: Demand for O.C. homes put at 6-month high" rel="bookmark" href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/25/home-supply-225/">Demand for O.C. homes put at 6-month high</a></p>

<p>http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/25/home-supply-225/</p>
 
<em>"``The past five months' sales activity has been very soft, but stable,'' said Lawrence Yun, the real-estate agents group's chief economist."</em>





LOL. This guy should do stand-up comedy. I guess if you consider an 80% decline in sales volume soft...
 
><em>"``The past five months' sales activity has been very soft, but stable,'' said Lawrence Yun, the real-estate agents group's chief economist."





Things are so stable that rigor mortis should be setting in any time now.</em>
 
As expected, bulls are touting the fact that transactions picked up over the past month...spring selling season anyone?





Never mind the fact that inventories are still about double what they were at the same time last year.
 
<p><a title="Permanent Link: 55% think U.S. home prices will rise" rel="bookmark" href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/03/55-think-us-home-prices-will-rise/">55% think U.S. home prices will rise</a></p>

<p>http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/03/03/55-think-us-home-prices-will-rise/</p>
 
I understand that this is an improvement and an even greater percentage was convinced of this a few months ago. Most people are clueless about most things.
 
<p>"Never mind the fact that inventories are still about double what they were at the same time last year."</p>

<p>Not in Irvine caliguy. Irvine housing inventory is only 4.5% higher year-over-year if the ziprealty data on the IHB is correct.</p>

<p>Countywide, inventory appears to be 25% higher year-over-year... A big number indeed, and one that signals big price declines ahead, but nowhere near 100%.</p>
 
Ipo - you're right...I wasn't clear but was referencing the fact that <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/25/home-supply-225/">Steve Thomas' months of inventory number </a>for all of OC is almost double what it was last year - two weeks ago it was more than double but has decreased since then; not the actual inventory itself.





Here is what <a href="http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine">housingtracker says</a> about OC inventory:





2/2007: 13,713 (SFH + condo)


2/2008: 17,063





As you said, it's about a 25% increase. The fact that sales numbers are very much lower this year is why the months of inventory has been double and is now just below double what it was last year.
 
Per the magic inventory figure of a "neutral market" ... if banks aren't even willing to hang on to municipal securities which are profitable (pay tax free interest) ... why would they be willing to hang on to an REO house a few months longer, paying out maintenance and tax costs, holding out for a slightly better price? Are they desperate enough to price to sell ASAP regardless of the number of months inventory? Just a thought...
 
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