I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE TOPPED

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[quote author="PANDA" date=1256002967]S&P500; Dec 31, 2009 prediction. It seems that we have all bases covered.

October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.



Graphrix - 950

Novas - 951

Panda - 750

Bondtrader - 1020

Awgee - 1085

MoreKaos- 1150

IHO - 888



Alright Novas, I will make an exception. You will be the last one in! Let the Games Begin :)</blockquote>


Add me to the list...I am predicting 1030 on the S&P by yr end.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1256187145][quote author="Oxtail" date=1256186426]That was an interesting last 45 minutes of trading today. It looks like we'll get to celebrate the Dow breaking 10,000 every day now!</blockquote>
An analyst comes out and downgrades Wells and the whole market tanks? Sure seems like the bid boys want to bring the market down a bit.</blockquote>


Wells is a proxy for BAC and JPM, both of whom swallowed large piles of crap when they took over Countrywide and Washington Mutual, respectively. If Wells, who took over Wachovia (and therefore Golden West), isn't growing fundamentally, then you can only imagine what BAC is going through. It also brought to mind the call Meredith Whitney made in 2007 about Citibank and the bad run that followed. And let's face it, most people have been watching the rally since March with a "WTF is going on?" look on their face because it just made no sense. I'm not surprised, but I was caught slightly off guard. The futures appear to have recovered so I doubt it was the start of anything.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1256192992][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1256187145][quote author="Oxtail" date=1256186426]That was an interesting last 45 minutes of trading today. It looks like we'll get to celebrate the Dow breaking 10,000 every day now!</blockquote>
An analyst comes out and downgrades Wells and the whole market tanks? Sure seems like the bid boys want to bring the market down a bit.</blockquote>


Wells is a proxy for BAC and JPM, both of whom swallowed large piles of crap when they took over Countrywide and Washington Mutual, respectively. If Wells, who took over Wachovia (and therefore Golden West), isn't growing fundamentally, then you can only imagine what BAC is going through. It also brought to mind the call Meredith Whitney made in 2007 about Citibank and the bad run that followed. And let's face it, most people have been watching the rally since March with a "WTF is going on?" look on their face because it just made no sense. I'm not surprised, but I was caught slightly off guard. The futures appear to have recovered so I doubt it was the start of anything.</blockquote>


Bove was actually quite bullish on WFC after its earnings release this morning...then decided to do a double take and realize the earnings were based on "hedging profits".



Reading Doug Kass earlier in the day, he was pointing this out and calling WFC earnings "garbage" more or less.



So you tag team the downgrade to Sell and leak the Pay Czar comments and the market gets blasted.
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1256192113][quote author="PANDA" date=1256002967]S&P500; Dec 31, 2009 prediction. It seems that we have all bases covered.

October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.



Graphrix - 950

Novas - 951

Panda - 750

Bondtrader - 1020

Awgee - 1085

MoreKaos- 1150

IHO - 888



Alright Novas, I will make an exception. You will be the last one in! Let the Games Begin :)</blockquote>


Add me to the list...I am predicting 1030 on the S&P by yr end.</blockquote>


Optimus... I said the list is closed bro.... Alright... dude. I'll put you in! Are you sure you don't want to be at 850 or something? I am getting kinda lonely here being at 750 by myself.



Graphrix - 950

Novas - 951

Panda - 750

Bondtrader - 1020

Awgee - 1085

MoreKaos- 1150

Optimus - 1030

IHO - 888
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227265636]Irvine Renter,



If you look at the steep decline of the DOW in June of 1932 it had a steep V bounce back. Same thing happened to the steep drops in the 1970s for the DOW. I believe we are close to the bottom and will see a steep V bounce back to the 10k level but will not break new highs of 14k. I also believe that the government is going to intervene in a major way.



I told all of you if you look at the stock market chart from 2002 - 2020, it will look like a BIG BUTT on the Sir-Mix-A-Lot MTV Music Video "Baby's Got Back"



<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>



We have just finished drawing the first butt cheek as DOW was 7528 in Sept 2002, hit a peak of 14k in Oct 2007 and back down to 7552 as of today. The drawing of the second butt cheek is on its way. Right now we are right between the crack of the butt.



For some of you who are still holding U.S. stocks and contemplating of selling right now, DO NOT LOST HOPE! and PLEASE DO NOT SELL RIGHT NOW!.... ! Hold tight, I do believe we are going to have a "V" shape bounce back!!!!



C'mon DOW get back on your feet and PANDA says, "Get your butt back up to 10K".



O me Gosh... I am now starting to sound like KRAMER.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1256190010]Sold all domestic equities yesterday. Regardless of the technicals, I can't imagine earnings growth is going to justify 25-30x P/Es over the next year.</blockquote>


Good job CW. I believe we are currently 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek, if not very close.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1256198106]Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.</blockquote>


It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.







Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1256196033]



Optimus... I said the list is closed bro.... Alright... dude. I'll put you in! Are you sure you don't want to be at 850 or something? I am getting kinda lonely here being at 750 by myself.

</blockquote>


Not gonna join in your game, but I did put down a decent put position last Friday on GS. April 110's. I'm feeling a crash coming as well, but then again I've been wrong for months about this rally. Let's see how the rest of October plays out.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1256199079][quote author="PANDA" date=1256198106]Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.</blockquote>


It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.







Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?</blockquote>


I said as much in the "I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED" thread last week



"Posted: 24 September 2009 08:48 PM [ # 370 ]



Joined 2007-05-03 PANDA - 04 December 2008 10:00 AM



acpme - 04 December 2008 09:44 AM

if the mkt bottoms at -50% ytd and magically the equity mkts revert to their historical norms of ~10% avg returns annually, it?d take 7 yrs before the mkt is back at the level it was at the beg of 2008.



given that:

1) i?ve been spared from most of the brunt of the downturn,

2) do believe even if the mkt has bottomed, the ride up is going to be as volatile as the ride down,

3) don?t believe in magic,



i?m perfectly happy sitting this one out for a while even if it means missing a large chunk of the upturn.



(having said all that, i dont think it?ll take 7 yrs to get back to dow 14k/spx 1500)



acpme,



I am in the in the opinion that we will see a huge dead cat bounce rally going into first quarter of 2009. I do see DOW hitting 11k - 12k into next year, but not making new highs above 14k.



<strong>Wow!! Panda may have gotten it right. I tip my hat"</strong>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1256199079][quote author="PANDA" date=1256198106]Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.</blockquote>


It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.







Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?</blockquote>


Wait...what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2993/P800/#85168">From the same thread</a>:



[quote author="PANDA" date=1228544422][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1228543321][quote author="PANDA" date=1228542246]DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report...



Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. <strong>DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008</strong>. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.</blockquote>


So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?</blockquote>


Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce <strong>rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom</strong>. I can also see the<strong> real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009</strong> and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.



Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013.... Cash is KING.... Gold is GOD.</blockquote>


Now... I'll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.
 
You are absolutely correct Nude. I thought the bottom of the DOW would be at the same level as the bottom in 2002 around 7500. I never thought the bottom of the DOW would get down to 6500 like it did in March, 2009. You see i am human, not a fortune cookie. If i could clearly predict the future of stock movements so perfectly.... I would be living in Newport Coast, not in Des Plaines, IL. :)



I will say this with confidence, there will be four financial matters that will make headlines in CNBC and the papers in the coming few years. 1) Continual shrinking of home equity 2) inflation 3) gold and silver 4) rising interest rates.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1256200892][quote author="awgee" date=1256199079][quote author="PANDA" date=1256198106]Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.</blockquote>


It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.







Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?</blockquote>


Wait...what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2993/P800/#85168">From the same thread</a>:



[quote author="PANDA" date=1228544422][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1228543321][quote author="PANDA" date=1228542246]DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report...



Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. <strong>DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008</strong>. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.</blockquote>


So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?</blockquote>


Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce <strong>rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom</strong>. I can also see the<strong> real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009</strong> and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.



Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013.... Cash is KING.... Gold is GOD.</blockquote>


Now... I'll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.</blockquote>
You are tough. Especially when folks said he did not know anything. He called a bottom. He called a 10k. He called gold going up when folks said he did not know what he was talking about.

Hat tip to you, Panda. You did better than I thought you would, and better than I could.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1256217089][quote author="Nude" date=1256200892][quote author="awgee" date=1256199079][quote author="PANDA" date=1256198106]Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.</blockquote>


It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.







Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?</blockquote>


Wait...what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2993/P800/#85168">From the same thread</a>:



[quote author="PANDA" date=1228544422][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1228543321][quote author="PANDA" date=1228542246]DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report...



Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. <strong>DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008</strong>. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.</blockquote>


So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?</blockquote>


Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce <strong>rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom</strong>. I can also see the<strong> real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009</strong> and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.



Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013.... Cash is KING.... Gold is GOD.</blockquote>


Now... I'll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.</blockquote>
You are tough. Especially when folks said he did not know anything. He called a bottom. He called a 10k. He called gold going up when folks said he did not know what he was talking about.

Hat tip to you, Panda. You did better than I thought you would, and better than I could.</blockquote>


I am tough, thanks. He missed the bottom, by 2,000 points and ~4 months. I gave him credit for the 10k call, too. And his gold call has yet to come true because we're 2 years away from his prediction.



Listen, I'm not trying to crush anyone's success. I just took issue with your assessment of his accuracy.
 
I'm too lazy to look up the thread, but I think it was the same one that morekaos quoted acpme in that I gave a panda the props he deserved. He made a pretty good call. Off by a few months but right on some of the numbers. He made a good call. Now... if he could just get the timing right... I'd actually follow his calls. I don't have anything to compare it to, because I haven't been trading. But... if this bear rally holds you know I will be turning on the puts. Sometimes you just have to go with your feelings and have a feel of the market. I haven't had that feeling so I stepped aside and will get back in when the feeling hits me.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1256219710][quote author="awgee" date=1256217089][quote author="Nude" date=1256200892][quote author="awgee" date=1256199079][quote author="PANDA" date=1256198106]Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.</blockquote>


It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.







Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?</blockquote>


Wait...what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2993/P800/#85168">From the same thread</a>:



[quote author="PANDA" date=1228544422][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1228543321][quote author="PANDA" date=1228542246]DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report...



Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. <strong>DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008</strong>. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.</blockquote>


So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?</blockquote>


Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce <strong>rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom</strong>. I can also see the<strong> real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009</strong> and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.



Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013.... Cash is KING.... Gold is GOD.</blockquote>


Now... I'll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.</blockquote>
You are tough. Especially when folks said he did not know anything. He called a bottom. He called a 10k. He called gold going up when folks said he did not know what he was talking about.

Hat tip to you, Panda. You did better than I thought you would, and better than I could.</blockquote>


I am tough, thanks. He missed the bottom, by 2,000 points and ~4 months. I gave him credit for the 10k call, too. And his gold call has yet to come true because we're 2 years away from his prediction.



Listen, I'm not trying to crush anyone's success. I just took issue with your assessment of his accuracy.</blockquote>
Could you or did you call better? That is not an attack. Just honestly, did you call it any better? I have contended all along that one does not need to call the top or bottom, just ride the overall trend. We make our assessment of top or bottom for the purposes of timing, but in the end it is our committment to what we know and don't know that keeps up in the game or changes our mind. You don't think Panda has done better than most, especially considering that people were saying that he was completely ignorant? His calls will obviously not be perfect, but the folks who attacked him were wrong.
 
It could be that the buying power has now exhausted itself. In a very short

time span, the Dow lost 170 points yesterday (the intraday high was 10,119),

to close at 9,949, and the S&P 500 hit a new intraday high of 1,101, but closed

at 1,081. To be sure, there is plenty of technical support out there still, and the

S&P 500 would have to dive all the way down to 1,040 to break the trendline from

the March low. I don?t expect this to develop into a 30%+ correction yet,

but more like a 5-6% pullback. 1100 will be a very tough resistance for S&P to get

through.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1256242325]Could you or did you call better? That is not an attack. Just honestly, did you call it any better? I have contended all along that one does not need to call the top or bottom, just ride the overall trend. We make our assessment of top or bottom for the purposes of timing, but in the end it is our committment to what we know and don't know that keeps up in the game or changes our mind. You don't think Panda has done better than most, especially considering that people were saying that he was completely ignorant? His calls will obviously not be perfect, but the folks who attacked him were wrong.</blockquote>


We went all cash in July, so I've missed the rest of the rally. But I also (as Oscar) posted this last December:



[quote author="Oscar" date=1228448050]I suspect that more than a few people are waiting/hoping/counting on Obama to perform a miracle and turn things around over night. I think when it becomes clear that not even he has the power to reverse this, we will see the kind of panic and capitulation in the general population that hasn't really materialized yet.



It's for this reason that <strong>I think anyone calling a bottom is overly optimistic</strong>. Yes, the markets have fallen. But how much of that is a result of a recession and how much of it is the result of the massive amount of hedge fund redemptions? I know IrvineRenter has mentiond that this kind of negativity is evidence that we are near the bottom based on the contra-indications of general sentiment (buy when others are fearful, etc.), but I don't see actual panic and resignation. What I see is the reduction in spending based on lack of MEW and rising unemployment combined with a reduction in consumer credit lines. But that isn't a reduction in spending based on fear and panic. Among the people I talk with, most are taking a "wait-and-see" attitude because the effects of the downturn are only just now affecting them in areas other than house value. Again, I suspect that they are holding out hope that Obama has some magic bullet that will turn the clock back to 2006 and put us back on the path of endless prosperity. Once reality sets in, I think the general sentiment will finally reach the kind of negative levels that will result in a solid bottom.</blockquote>


[quote author="Oscar" date=1229507860]Primarily this is 401(k) money that won't be used for another 30-40 years.



There are not a lot of choices offered for the 401(k) but <strong>everything was moved from the various mutual funds into a moneymarket fund in 11/07 and has been sitting there ever since</strong>. In hindsight this looks like brilliance considering how much of the equity loss was avoided, but it was the result of nothing more than a vague feeling that we wouldn't be seeing 14k on the DOW again for a while. But with today's Fed action and the reactions in the USD index and the Gold futures, I want to move everything, except the $5k the government has guaranteed, out of the MMF. I just don't quite know where to allocate the money yet.



Like I said before, equities look attractive. I just don't have the time to babysit a bunch of options in order to minimize my risk. I define "safe" as "it's not going to disappear while I'm still putting in the order to get out".</blockquote>


I'm staying in cash now. I don't have clue where the market is going, but I know that I don't understand what is driving it, so I am sitting on the sidelines for now. I'm not dissing Panda's successes, I only took issue with your assessment because he was demonstrably wrong. I don't crow my successes or my failures because I'm not a day trader and I don't think anyone really cares, so there is nothing showing a "call" other than my feeling that bottom was a ways off.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1256254782]It could be that the buying power has now exhausted itself. In a very short

time span, the Dow lost 170 points yesterday (the intraday high was 10,119),

to close at 9,949, and the S&P 500 hit a new intraday high of 1,101, but closed

at 1,081. To be sure, there is plenty of technical support out there still, and the

S&P 500 would have to dive all the way down to 1,040 to break the trendline from

the March low. I don?t expect this to develop into a 30%+ correction yet,

but more like a 5-6% pullback. 1100 will be a very tough resistance for S&P to get

through.</blockquote>


I sort of agree BT. I see 2 scenarios unfolding here. Scenario 1: we crash 30% now from current levels, or Scenario 2: we have 5-10% pull back into November and a final big rally into Dec/Jan, possiby 11k and higher and then the big crash in January. I guess what you are trying to say is the first scenario is unlikely. My timing might be off on 750 S&P by Dec 31st, 2009... but I know we will eventually get there. If Scenario 2 unfolds, the crash will be more severe and MoreKaos will win the S&P500; 12/31/09 Prediction game. Bummer.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1256261195]I sort of agree BT. I see 2 scenarios unfolding here. Scenario 1: we crash 30% now from current levels, or Scenario 2: we have 5-10% pull back into November and a final big rally into Dec/Jan, possiby 11k and higher and then the big crash in January. I guess what you are trying to say is the first scenario is unlikely. My timing might be off on 750 S&P by Dec 31st, 2009... but I know we will eventually get there. If Scenario 2 unfolds, the crash will be more severe and MoreKaos will win the S&P500; 12/31/09 Prediction game.</blockquote>


Call me cynical, but I don't think we'll see a drop of any magnitude until the Health Care bill gets passed or gets rejected. Anything that gives ammunition to the opposition of Big Government will be used to attack Health Care reform, and a crashing market with do just that, since the StimPak was supposed to prevent that. So, there is my "call" on the timing of the crash... after, not before the vote.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1256242325][quote author="Nude" date=1256219710][quote author="awgee" date=1256217089][quote author="Nude" date=1256200892][quote author="awgee" date=1256199079][quote author="PANDA" date=1256198106]Currently we are 1/2 way thru drawing the second DOW butt cheek.</blockquote>


It cracks me up. There was a gang attacking you and saying you did not know anything about investing or the markets. It turns out you could not have been more right and they could not have been more wrong.







Will any of them man up and at the least say your were right and they were wrong?</blockquote>


Wait...what? Are you kidding me? His bottom call was off by almost a whole quarter, and he missed more calls along the way than Jim Kramer.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2993/P800/#85168">From the same thread</a>:



[quote author="PANDA" date=1228544422][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1228543321][quote author="PANDA" date=1228542246]DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report...



Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. <strong>DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008</strong>. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.</blockquote>


So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?</blockquote>


Blackvault, long term i can see DOW getting down to 4,000 - 6000 between 2011 - 2013. My plan is to unload both of my real estate by 2009 - 2010, and start buying like crazy in Irvine between 2011 - 2013. I see a short term dead cat bounce <strong>rally where 7500 was our short-term bottom</strong>. I can also see the<strong> real estate sales picking up first quarter 2009</strong> and prolonging the decline by government intervention and low mortgage rates. I think that the DOW is going to rally into 2009, but will not rally above the our last 14,000 DOW high. Long term, the depression that I see that is going to hit our country seems to be very very serious.



Just remember my PK friend, between 2011 - 2013.... Cash is KING.... Gold is GOD.</blockquote>


Now... I'll give him credit for the call on prolonging the RE decline and for calling a rally in 2009, but he called the bottom 4 months early and whiffed on everything in between.</blockquote>
You are tough. Especially when folks said he did not know anything. He called a bottom. He called a 10k. He called gold going up when folks said he did not know what he was talking about.

Hat tip to you, Panda. You did better than I thought you would, and better than I could.</blockquote>


I am tough, thanks. He missed the bottom, by 2,000 points and ~4 months. I gave him credit for the 10k call, too. And his gold call has yet to come true because we're 2 years away from his prediction.



Listen, I'm not trying to crush anyone's success. I just took issue with your assessment of his accuracy.</blockquote>
Could you or did you call better? That is not an attack. Just honestly, did you call it any better? I have contended all along that one does not need to call the top or bottom, just ride the overall trend. We make our assessment of top or bottom for the purposes of timing, but in the end it is our committment to what we know and don't know that keeps up in the game or changes our mind. You don't think Panda has done better than most, especially considering that people were saying that he was completely ignorant? His calls will obviously not be perfect, but the folks who attacked him were wrong.</blockquote>




Awgee,



Thanks for your encouragement. I have to be honest that i was getting very nervous when gold dropped to $700/ounce last November and I remember PMing you several times back then as it was quite painful. I remember what you told me as it appeared that you were not panicking like i was. I think you said, "Panda, has the fundamentals changed in any way in regards to gold?" My answer was "No". You said something like, "The market may react irrational in the short-term, but will always move back to its fundamentals in the long run." If you didn't PM me back then, i may have panicked and sold half of my gold positions, but ended up buying more gold and not selling an ounce of my positions. Awgee, Indirectly, I owe a BIG "Thank you" for the decisions i have made back then.



Below is recap around that time period in the Gold thread.

[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224738175][quote author="graphrix" date=1224625991][quote author="morekaos" date=1224624440]$771.40 down $26.60. Not sure where the bottom is here</blockquote>


Total whackage on gold right now. Haven't heard much from Panda lately. First it is the dollar, now it is gold. It's like double dipping in the ugly pool.</blockquote>


When Panda gives up and sells, then we are at the bottom.</blockquote>


Are you kidding me Irvine Renter??.. I am loading it up on Gold right now. I am practically completely out of the U.S. Paper Trash. It sure does feel like buying a nice SFR in Newport Coast for only $500,000. The U.S. paper trash will Crash.
 
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