I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
People buying on bad news is sheer hope. Am I going to buy Feb options? No. Going further out in case we do have a short term rally. But this isn't over. Our government has no clue what is going on financially, they are just hoping something sticks. Only way to solve this mess, which is a global mess is to take the world into bankrupcy, restructure and start over. 800B won't do jack as long as Jobs continue to bleed.

Plus what is the government going to do? replace jobs from high tech, banking and investment industries with construction jobs? LOL...right that will fix it. Lets replace a 200K salary with a 30K. That will pay my mortgage now. NO..all it will do is buy you food so you don't die. Your home will still be lost.



It isn't about job replacement...sure that helps. But if you're not getting the same rate as you did before...then it won't help the bleeding.

OH btw...I just bought puts on CSCO, JPM and BAC.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1233974812]Respectfully also, although I have no idea if the bottom is in or not. I just disagree with your reasoning. The market rose on every piece of bad news from 2003 to 2007.</blockquote>


I respect your respectful disagreement, but there was not a ton of bad news after the 2003 low. Unemployment, GDP, interest rates, and housings all looked pretty fine and dandy then. Now we all know how it turned out but what the heck
 
A bear market without at least a few strong--but false--rallies would be a pretty rare thing. Not saying we haven't seen the bottom, just that we might see it a few times over the next few years.
 
[quote author="Daedalus" date=1234000616]A bear market without at least a few strong--but false--rallies would be a pretty rare thing. Not saying we haven't seen the bottom, just that we might see it a few times over the next few years.</blockquote> IIRC, historically the most intense rallys occur during cyclical bear markets.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1233974017]I reiterate my call!! When markets rise on percieved bad news the lows are in.</blockquote>


The main street financial media is in total agreement with you. They were all talking about how stocks are soaring on bad news and that is a sign that the bottom is in, and now the Saturday morning shows are reiterating.
 
The man in the street doesn't agree. Talking heads change their minds with the blowing wind. The public at large believe we are going into a depression.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1234056087]The man in the street doesn't agree. Talking heads change their minds with the blowing wind. The public at large believe we are going into a depression.</blockquote>
Doubtful. The public at large are worried, but if they thought a depression was forming there would be a lot more visible anger and fear in the streets. And the TV crews would be filming it all.
 
[quote author="Oscar" date=1234064284][quote author="morekaos" date=1234056087]The man in the street doesn't agree. Talking heads change their minds with the blowing wind. The public at large believe we are going into a depression.</blockquote>
Doubtful. The public at large are worried, but if they thought a depression was forming there would be a lot more visible anger and fear in the streets. And the TV crews would be filming it all.</blockquote>


We will get there. Give it time. Our government has no clue how to fix this. They are simply pretending so full blow panic doesn't set in. I can't tell you how much I believe this. They have NO CLUE!



First it was numerious rate cuts, ok so that didn't fix it and we can't cut anymore. Then it was a bailout...that didn't work. Now we are attempting a bailout again and a reform on the original bailout.



Oh and this just in...Obama says that stimulus bill must be passed even if imperfect. Also, Geitner just announced that they are announcing a bad bank plan but they have no idea what it will be. That screams confidence from a tax cheating mofo. Not to mention that our gov't already mentioned they can't figure the AIG mess as it's way too complex and are looking for outside consultants.



It's kinda scarry that we are at 8K and panic on the streets hasn't set in yet. Give it time, until the public realizes that nothing works. Until they realize that we simply have to enter bankrupcy as a nation in order to resolve this.



Almost forgot...Is anyone even talking about Medicare, Social Security and Pension tsunamis coming our way? We forget about that? I didn't...
 
The only thing you need to look at to tell you that there IS full blown panic is Tbill rates at 0 and long gov rates below 3%. Gold is another indicator of total panic sentiment. There is little consensus that this is over, and it probably isn't but the makets always bottom before the sentiment does. That is why I will stick to my guns that the 7550 low will hold.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1234070339][quote author="Oscar" date=1234064284][quote author="morekaos" date=1234056087]The man in the street doesn't agree. Talking heads change their minds with the blowing wind. The public at large believe we are going into a depression.</blockquote>
Doubtful. The public at large are worried, but if they thought a depression was forming there would be a lot more visible anger and fear in the streets. And the TV crews would be filming it all.</blockquote>


We will get there. Give it time. Our government has no clue how to fix this. They are simply pretending so full blow panic doesn't set in. I can't tell you how much I believe this. They have NO CLUE!



First it was numerious rate cuts, ok so that didn't fix it and we can't cut anymore. Then it was a bailout...that didn't work. Now we are attempting a bailout again and a reform on the original bailout.



Oh and this just in...Obama says that stimulus bill must be passed even if imperfect. Also, Geitner just announced that they are announcing a bad bank plan but they have no idea what it will be. That screams confidence from a tax cheating mofo. Not to mention that our gov't already mentioned they can't figure the AIG mess as it's way too complex and are looking for outside consultants.



It's kinda scarry that we are at 8K and panic on the streets hasn't set in yet. Give it time, until the public realizes that nothing works. Until they realize that we simply have to enter bankrupcy as a nation in order to resolve this.



Almost forgot...Is anyone even talking about Medicare, Social Security and Pension tsunamis coming our way? We forget about that? I didn't...</blockquote>


Pension funds are the next to fall.

Obama saying that we must pass the spending non-existent money to buy votes bill or else there will be catastrophe reminds me of the realtors saying buy now or be priced out forever. Just more scare tactics, but it works. It worked for Paulson.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1234072428]The only thing you need to look at to tell you that there IS full blown panic is Tbill rates at 0 and long gov rates below 3%.

</blockquote>
I agree that this shows panic by banks and foreign central banks, but it says nothing about Joe 6 pack.



[quote author="morekaos" date=1234072428]Gold is another indicator of total panic sentiment.

</blockquote>
Gold has finished up every year since 2001. Has there been total panic since 2001? Why is gold indicating panic now and not the previous seven years? Commercials are still net short per the COT.



[quote author="morekaos" date=1234072428]There is little consensus that this is over, and it probably isn't but the makets always bottom before the sentiment does. That is why I will stick to my guns that the 7550 low will hold.</blockquote>
Agreed, the markets historically have bottomed before the economy or sentiment, and there is no reason to think this time will be different. And I see no reason to think the equities markets can not go lower, especially on a real vs. nominal dollar basis. Why can't the equities markets go lower? Why can't they rally and then go lower, much lower? Why will this recession not be a depression?
 
You might be right. Numerically, 7500 could be the bottom. But what happens if we stay at 8K or 9K for the next 10 years?

If we dont go below 7500, its because the government did whatever they could to put a cushion on the fall. But in exchange for the cushion, we will have to experience inflation.

So either we get a fall, or super high inflation. Either way, worst is yet to come no matter how you spin it.



It really doeasn't matter to me though..I'm a momentum trader. Speculating where the market goes a year from now is fun, but I only care to interpret what is happening in the curren week.



We'll see what happens, only way to find out.
 
No doubt, I am a trader too. Why do you think I have take such a large position in TIPS. We shall see. This is a traders dream and an investors nightmare.
 
I think this is the view of 99% of the Americans out there. The call for a bottom is still firmly in the minority.



<a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/09/ramped-up-obama-rhetoric-could-backfire/">'Doom' talk</a>



"From crisis to catastrophe. Off a cliff. Dark, darker, darkest. Mortal danger of absolute collapse. Armageddon."
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1234221464]I think this is the view of 99% of the Americans out there. The call for a bottom is still firmly in the minority.



<a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/09/ramped-up-obama-rhetoric-could-backfire/">'Doom' talk</a>



"From crisis to catastrophe. Off a cliff. Dark, darker, darkest. Mortal danger of absolute collapse. Armageddon."</blockquote>
Even in Massachusetts, the Realtors are calling it the bottom - so it must be true.

One Realtor yesterday was claiming the HUGE amount of buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting to pounce.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1234221464]The call for a bottom is still firmly in the minority.</blockquote>
I guess we listen to different channels and read different articles. On the financial shows I hear someone calling a bottom just about every day. The same with the financial MSM.



Anybody else? Or am I the only one?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1234221725][quote author="morekaos" date=1234221464]The call for a bottom is still firmly in the minority.</blockquote>
I guess we listen to different channels and read different articles. On the financial shows I hear someone calling a bottom just about every day. The same with the financial MSM.



Anybody else? Or am I the only one?</blockquote>


I'm with you awgee. I think it seems to be only me and you. I wrote a whole section titled "CNBC Cheerleaders and their Leader Jim Cramer" on my blog and their attempts to call the bottom pretty much every day. Just recently Cramer gave his reasons as to why things are turning around...which were garbage.



When I'm around others I can't help but ask where they thing we are going and how they feel about the economy. Most either are clueless or they feel that we will recover very quickly. Most like to compare this to the 2001 recession which is far from it. Personally, the run we had from 2001 to DOW of 14K is simply a bubble within a major bubble.

The previous administration patched it up by offering new financial instruments that allow someone to purchase a home with no income, no credit etc.

This in turn inflated home values...then people withdrew equity to buy other goods. All this created is "fake" spending power. Our economy didn't grow due to normal means, it grew on CREDIT people. You can't recover from a credit bubble unless you offer even more credit to stimulate spending which is the problem in the first place.



See you below 7500.
 
[quote author="CalGal" date=1234221606][quote author="morekaos" date=1234221464]I think this is the view of 99% of the Americans out there. The call for a bottom is still firmly in the minority.



<a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/09/ramped-up-obama-rhetoric-could-backfire/">'Doom' talk</a>



"From crisis to catastrophe. Off a cliff. Dark, darker, darkest. Mortal danger of absolute collapse. Armageddon."</blockquote>
Even in Massachusetts, the Realtors are calling it the bottom - so it must be true.

One Realtor yesterday was claiming the HUGE amount of buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting to pounce.</blockquote>


Whoah...not calling a bottom for the real estate market...that one has more to go. This is a call for the stock market bottom at 7550 dow
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1234222339][quote author="awgee" date=1234221725][quote author="morekaos" date=1234221464]The call for a bottom is still firmly in the minority.</blockquote>
I guess we listen to different channels and read different articles. On the financial shows I hear someone calling a bottom just about every day. The same with the financial MSM.



Anybody else? Or am I the only one?</blockquote>


I'm with you awgee. I think it seems to be only me and you. I wrote a whole section titled "CNBC Cheerleaders and their Leader Jim Cramer" on my blog and their attempts to call the bottom pretty much every day. Just recently Cramer gave his reasons as to why things are turning around...which were garbage.



When I'm around others I can't help but ask where they thing we are going and how they feel about the economy. Most either are clueless or they feel that we will recover very quickly. Most like to compare this to the 2001 recession which is far from it. Personally, the run we had from 2001 to DOW of 14K is simply a bubble within a major bubble.

The previous administration patched it up by offering new financial instruments that allow someone to purchase a home with no income, no credit etc.

This in turn inflated home values...then people withdrew equity to buy other goods. All this created is "fake" spending power. Our economy didn't grow due to normal means, it grew on CREDIT people. You can't recover from a credit bubble unless you offer even more credit to stimulate spending which is the problem in the first place.



See you below 7500.</blockquote>


Cramer is a moron!! I understand that. Funny article in Barrons about him today



<a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123397107399659271.html">Cramer's Star Outshines His Stock Picks </a>
 
Yah. Cramer and Barrons have been going at it for some time now. Barrons wants to point out the fact that he underperforms and is wrong about his picks.



Good for Barron.
 
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