I just might buy

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Someone, somewhere, is going to be coming to take my license away as I write this, but



[realtor all caps] Don't do it, GUII. Step away from the contract and nobody gets hurt. [/realtor all caps]
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1208475866]Someone, somewhere, is going to be coming to take my license away as I write this, but



[realtor all caps] Don't do it, GUII. Step away from the contract and nobody gets hurt. [/realtor all caps]</blockquote>


<img src="http://static.flickr.com/10/15789830_879ed597fa_m.jpg" alt="" />



He?s just saying that because it?s not one of his listings.

Don?t let his sad puppy dog picture fool you.

It?s a wolf in sheep?s clothing tactic

IRealtor is really?Bob Sugar



Whenever in doubt, which may happen numerous times; always remember the immortal words uttered from, my own personal hero, the great Dickie Fox who said

"I don't have all the answers.

In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I've succeeded.

But I love my wife. I love my life. I wish you my kind of success.?

Now, Bring it home!
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1208468813]GrewUp

There are a lot of good comments on this thread that you need to consider.

However, as you can see everyone?s situation is different.

I believe you should embrace the ?The time to win is now? mentality and go for it.

As long as it pencils and you can afford it then do it.

No regrets, second-guessing or looking in rear-view mirror.

Don?t put those dreams on hold any longer.</blockquote>


Ten, being the wily guy he is, will urge anyone to buy as long as they aren't going after his target homes. It's a brilliant ploy to reduce/eliminate competition from the buyer pool. You are shrewd machine ten, going to start calling you Sasha from now on. THE MACHINE!
 
Note to self: secret replacement of ten's Cran and Goose with Koolaid and Belvedere is proving ineffective. immunity somehow achieved. must seek alternative methods.
 
You three remind me of another trio...

<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>
 
Nude - Bear (or in your case <strong>bare</strong>?) with me. I work solo, but if you have to pick a trio:



<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>
 
Yeah IR2, your wife is always complaining you "work solo" too often... [IPO snickers]



Hey, we still on to check out that house today? 12:30 right? If anyone wants to see a likely POS short sale in NW Pointe today, I think IR2 and I will be there...
 
<blockquote>



Ten, being the wily guy he is, will urge anyone to buy as long as they aren't going after his target homes. It's a brilliant ploy to reduce/eliminate competition from the buyer pool. You are shrewd machine ten, going to start calling you Sasha from now on. THE MACHINE!</blockquote>


Are you referring to sasha vujacic? :) I wish he would cut his hair already. Playoffs start Saturday!!
 
Great feedback - and some of it was pretty good humor as well. I think that I'll take IPO's suggesting and check out some of the Mill and Juliet homes this weekend... and think about it a little bit... but there is simply no way that I'll be waiting for those Laguna Crossig and OH communities... 2-3 years waiting to see what happens? Nope. Not for me. It will either be now, or over the next 3-9 months... perhaps waiting until this winter will be best.



The 8 bills note is crazy wrong - at least in my circumstances. THe 2500 for child care (assuming 2 kids) is pretty accurate (IMO) so long as you don't use a DCA.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208481182]Yeah IR2, your wife is always complaining you "work solo" too often... [IPO snickers]</blockquote>


Et tu, Brute? Someone pull the dagger out of my back.
 
[quote author="GrewUpInIrvine" date=1208484229]Great feedback - and some of it was pretty good humor as well. I think that I'll take IPO's suggesting and check out some of the Mill and Juliet homes this weekend... and think about it a little bit... but there is simply no way that I'll be waiting for those Laguna Crossig and OH communities... 2-3 years waiting to see what happens? Nope. Not for me. It will either be now, or over the next 3-9 months... perhaps waiting until this winter will be best.



The 8 bills note is crazy wrong - at least in my circumstances. THe 2500 for child care (assuming 2 kids) is pretty accurate (IMO) so long as you don't use a DCA.</blockquote>


We max dependent care at the $5K allowed. $500 per week for the nanny (which is pretty cheaper for a full-time in-home nanny, it can be much more expensive), $500 per month for part-time preschool, tax benefit on the $5K of $150 per month, all gives you a net of $2520 per month. If you went full-time daycare/preschool it would be cheaper. We went the nanny route to maximize time with the kids when they were/are younger since the nanny helps out around the house too... Instead of worrying about laundry and cleaning during the week I can play with my boys, read them books, etc.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1208489635]I hear ya, GrewUp. We originally started looking in summer 2006. I've got some good stories about trying to negotiate discounts at that time. We knew we were in a bubble, and that prices were softening. Everyone, including our realtor, laughed at us. "Ha ha ha," they said, "real estate never goes down. You'll never get a discount off listing prices." We waited. Oh, and we fired that realtor. (How ya like me now, buddy?) Our second target was winter 2007. We didn't find anything we liked and were uncomfortable pulling the trigger given the velocity of the price drops at that time. So we waited again. (We did find a patient realtor who was willing to do the deal for us at 1% and didn't mind writing aggressive offers, not that we've made one yet.) Now our target is end of 2008. I'd love to have my family in a new home before the holidays. We'll see. I'm hoping that most of the price declines will have occurred by then, but who knows.</blockquote>


I couldn't get sellers to discounts in summer and fall 2007... The crash had not received enough pub yet and the koolaid anti-venom had not yet been consumed by enough sellers.



Sadly, it'll be one more Xmas in our 1622sf unless an unbelievable deal falls from the sky. We can hold out until summer 2009. Got my refi docs heading to escrow right now and 3-years of rate protection. It is nice not to have a whopper mortgage payment. Heck, the nanny costs us twice the mortgage and property tax on an after-tax basis!
 
[quote author="GrewUpInIrvine" date=1208484229]...

The 8 bills note is crazy wrong - at least in my circumstances. ...</blockquote>


Great, show us your budget.



For the $1,080,000 house, at 80% and 6% fixed 30 year, the payment is $5180. BTW, where are you getting 6% on a $864K loan?



Taxes are $945/month.



The mello-roos in woodbury at $450/month more. Frankly, I thought they were worse, I think VOC is.



HOA is another $105/month.



Insurance is another $100/month.



Earthquake at least that. Say $100/month.



Maintenance, you know, pidly stuff how much are you planning? What about reserves, for the future roof or kitchen remodel?



Oh and that $216,000 down payment you no longer have invested. How much interest are you losing a month? $1000? $2000? I figure 8% to be conservative, that's $1440 gone.



Before tax deductions, that's a total of $8300/month. Even at a 5.5% IO, you're at $7200.



Sure you get some back on taxes, but with that kind of capital, income to support those payments and sundry gains, AMT is a pain.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1208519338][quote author="GrewUpInIrvine" date=1208484229]...

The 8 bills note is crazy wrong - at least in my circumstances. ...</blockquote>


Great, show us your budget.



For the $1,080,000 house, at 80% and 6% fixed 30 year, the payment is $5180. BTW, where are you getting 6% on a $864K loan?



Taxes are $945/month.



The mello-roos in woodbury at $450/month more. Frankly, I thought they were worse, I think VOC is.



HOA is another $105/month.



Insurance is another $100/month.



Earthquake at least that. Say $100/month.



Maintenance, you know, pidly stuff how much are you planning? What about reserves, for the future roof or kitchen remodel?



Oh and that $216,000 down payment you no longer have invested. How much interest are you losing a month? $1000? $2000? I figure 8% to be conservative, that's $1440 gone.



Before tax deductions, that's a total of $8300/month. Even at a 5.5% IO, you're at $7200.



Sure you get some back on taxes, but with that kind of capital, income to support those payments and sundry gains, AMT is a pain.</blockquote>


Penfed and DCU are up to 6.25% today and maybe adjusting up again soon based on recent market action. NSR, where in the world can someone earn $1000/month on a liquid or even semi-liquid $216K cash?! The best money market in the country will probably provide 2.5-2.75% net after taxes. That is $450 per month...



I'm with you on the rest of the calcs. The place pencils out at $6K or so per month after tax benefit. I wouldn't touch that unless household income was $250K. Even at that income level, the daycare years would be tight. You figure on double income family makin' $250K, going to lose $17K to social security and medicare and another $32K to 401K. Leaves $200K before fed and state income taxes, figure $160K or so disposable income. Well, $7.5K to the house, $2.5K to kid expenses, another $5K per month for everything else and the spend is $180K per year. That is easily more than take home on $250K unless retirement savings is completely foregone. Heck, I didn't even include college savings...



GUII must be making some seriously large coin! I bow to GUII. My household income creeps about the $200K mark per year and we couldn't swing a mortgage and tax load that big. Daycare, education IRA, and 529 chew up $3,200 per month of disposable income. We only take home $12.5K per month so if we were spending $7K on the house that would leave a paltry $2,300 to cover everything else in life.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208521629]

GUII must be making some seriously large coin! I bow to GUII. </blockquote>


Amen to that! Except that I would think GUII would have to be making more than $300k to make it all work out reasonably and responsibly once he has kids (e.g. maxing out retirement and education accounts and getting sufficient life and disability insurance, etc.).



IPO, thanks for sharing some of your numbers. I think the pre-children folk have no idea how much it costs to raise a child. Our oldest child is almost 3, and it still is shocking to us how much this little creature costs. And like IPO says, it's not just the gear and the diapers and the daycare, it's the other little things that you could easily skimp on before that start adding up...like having more life and disability insurance, spending more to eat healthier, heating your house higher than 65 degrees at night, being able to choose the direct flight to grandparents house instead of having a layover somewhere and risking a delay...



GUII, before you write off IPO's childcare costs as extravagant or that he must be choosing the cadillac of childcare, let me tell you that the amounts he is paying is pretty standard for good, quality childcare. For us, daycare is $1200 for our toddler (and the rates have been going up every year). Infant care is even more expensive. I think IPO is actually saving money by having a nanny because he doesn't have to pay additional amounts that we do to have someone come in to clean our house periodically and he doesn't have to pay for back-up care for those strange holidays that his pre-school might have (like Cesar Chavez Day).
 
[quote author="GrewUpInIrvine" date=1208484229]Great feedback - and some of it was pretty good humor as well. I think that I'll take IPO's suggesting and check out some of the Mill and Juliet homes this weekend... and think about it a little bit... but there is simply no way that I'll be waiting for those Laguna Crossig and OH communities... 2-3 years waiting to see what happens? Nope. Not for me. It will either be now, or over the next 3-9 months... perhaps waiting until this winter will be best.</blockquote>


I can't see any way to justify buying now. A 10% drop over the next year or so is virtually guaranteed - could be more. On a million dollar house, that's 8,000 a month EXTRA beyond the 6-8,000 it'll cost to own! I don't see how it's worth it. You could stay at the Ritz-Carlton every weekend for the next year, buy next year, and come out ahead. Or take one of those ultra-deluxe chartered jet trips for two weeks to anyplace you wanted to go. Or fill your house with an art collection. Or whatever other extravagance suits your fancy.



Next winter, maybe. There's a good chance the panic drop will be over by then. Then the anticipated loss might be more like 1000-2000/month and I could see a nice house you like being worth that if you're in the bracket to afford it.
 
No Such -



It could be me, but you seem a little intense. But I appreciate the response all the same. In any event, I'm not sure where you got to $8300... I follow your math all the way to 6880... then it jumps to 8300... I'm guessing that 1600/mo is for reserves, etc? Sounds like a good idea... for when I need a new roof on a brand new home? hmm. I seem to recall reroofing my dad's home a few years back (yes, I do almost everything myself)... and it occured to me that the roof hadn't been replaced since initially built 30 years ago. The kitchen remodel? Are you kidding? It is a new home. We don't want to remodel it. It happens to be what we are looking for. Now that's not to say that I won't have things to spend $$ on - especially land/hardscape...



Yes, AMT is a bullet to dodge.





Fair Economist -



The 8K/mo loss? I'm not sure where that monthly figure comes from (how you calculate it), but I tend to agree with the generic proposition that prices will continue to drop... and the weekends at the Ritz is a good point.





Deadbeat -



I'll be posting the vegas odds on the GUII over-under annual gross household income later this week. No, I didn't get an economic stimulus check.
 
[quote author="GrewUpInIrvine" date=1208565525]No Such -



It could be me, but you seem a little intense. But I appreciate the response all the same. In any event, I'm not sure where you got to $8300... I follow your math all the way to 6880... then it jumps to 8300... I'm guessing that 1600/mo is for reserves, etc? Sounds like a good idea... for when I need a new roof on a brand new home? hmm. I seem to recall reroofing my dad's home a few years back (yes, I do almost everything myself)... and it occured to me that the roof hadn't been replaced since initially built 30 years ago. The kitchen remodel? Are you kidding? It is a new home. We don't want to remodel it. It happens to be what we are looking for. Now that's not to say that I won't have things to spend $$ on - especially land/hardscape...



Yes, AMT is a bullet to dodge.





Fair Economist -



The 8K/mo loss? I'm not sure where that monthly figure comes from (how you calculate it), but I tend to agree with the generic proposition that prices will continue to drop... and the weekends at the Ritz is a good point.



Deadbeat -



I'll be posting the vegas odds on the GUII over-under annual gross household income later this week. No, I didn't get an economic stimulus check.</blockquote>


Penfed is up to 6.5% today GUII and climbing fast. Stock market is rolling, bonds are tanking, even Penfed will be at 7% soon with retail market on a jumbo at 8+%. Better sign that contract ASAP and lock that loan if you are going to do it...
 
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