How many of you are putting low ball offers?

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[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223343137][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1223341340][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223339854]



ten,



The info you're looking for can be found for Irvine only <strong><a href="http://www.irvinerealtorsite.com/IrvineDowns.xls">here </a></strong>on the sales data sheet I've posted. Very few have been successful in closing at huge discounts, but one was nearly 40% off! Sadly some have been overbid by 20%. Average and median spread is at around 4% list to sale price discount. You can sort/filter to take a look at your target price range and dates to get better info.



Loan info is updated through 2/3rds of Sept. so far.



Good luck, and see if you can get Gary to wash your car again.



- Ni-ban</blockquote>


Appreciate the link, thanks for putting it together.

The information is extremely helpful.



Just to make sure I?m interpreting the numbers correctly.

On the third property from the top, 15385 Nantes Circle,

The 23.41%, is that the % number off the list price?</blockquote>


Yes, line item #28 - 15385 Nantes - listed for $775K, sold for $628K = 23% off.

I also see a pattern from the hi-rise builders (Scholarship addresses particularly) having a large spread.

But note the home closing on 2153 Watermarke (line item #1204) was listed for $257K and sold for $332K on 9/30.



Good luck, and wade carefully.</blockquote>


Thanks for the reply, helping me understand the data.

The numbers show very little off list price in those areas where I?m looking to buy

It would appear as though sellers aren?t quite in panic mode or motivated to sell at a discount yet.

Probably best to remain on the sidelines at this point, until the appropriate opportunity presents itself.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1223353967][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223343137][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1223341340][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223339854]



ten,



The info you're looking for can be found for Irvine only <strong><a href="http://www.irvinerealtorsite.com/IrvineDowns.xls">here </a></strong>on the sales data sheet I've posted. Very few have been successful in closing at huge discounts, but one was nearly 40% off! Sadly some have been overbid by 20%. Average and median spread is at around 4% list to sale price discount. You can sort/filter to take a look at your target price range and dates to get better info.



Loan info is updated through 2/3rds of Sept. so far.



Good luck, and see if you can get Gary to wash your car again.



- Ni-ban</blockquote>


Appreciate the link, thanks for putting it together.

The information is extremely helpful.



Just to make sure I?m interpreting the numbers correctly.

On the third property from the top, 15385 Nantes Circle,

The 23.41%, is that the % number off the list price?</blockquote>


Yes, line item #28 - 15385 Nantes - listed for $775K, sold for $628K = 23% off.

I also see a pattern from the hi-rise builders (Scholarship addresses particularly) having a large spread.

But note the home closing on 2153 Watermarke (line item #1204) was listed for $257K and sold for $332K on 9/30.



Good luck, and wade carefully.</blockquote>


Thanks for the reply, helping me understand the data.

The numbers show very little off list price in those areas where I?m looking to buy

It would appear as though sellers aren?t quite in panic mode or motivated to sell at a discount yet.

Probably best to remain on the sidelines at this point, until the appropriate opportunity presents itself.</blockquote>
Patience young grasshopper, too many knifecatchers out there for low ball offers to even be taken somewhat seriously. I'm finding it hard to believe that some condos in Irvine are still selling around $400/sf.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1223354151][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1223353967][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223343137][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1223341340][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223339854]



ten,



The info you're looking for can be found for Irvine only <strong><a href="http://www.irvinerealtorsite.com/IrvineDowns.xls">here </a></strong>on the sales data sheet I've posted. Very few have been successful in closing at huge discounts, but one was nearly 40% off! Sadly some have been overbid by 20%. Average and median spread is at around 4% list to sale price discount. You can sort/filter to take a look at your target price range and dates to get better info.



Loan info is updated through 2/3rds of Sept. so far.



Good luck, and see if you can get Gary to wash your car again.



- Ni-ban</blockquote>


Appreciate the link, thanks for putting it together.

The information is extremely helpful.



Just to make sure I?m interpreting the numbers correctly.

On the third property from the top, 15385 Nantes Circle,

The 23.41%, is that the % number off the list price?</blockquote>


Yes, line item #28 - 15385 Nantes - listed for $775K, sold for $628K = 23% off.

I also see a pattern from the hi-rise builders (Scholarship addresses particularly) having a large spread.

But note the home closing on 2153 Watermarke (line item #1204) was listed for $257K and sold for $332K on 9/30.



Good luck, and wade carefully.</blockquote>


Thanks for the reply, helping me understand the data.

The numbers show very little off list price in those areas where I?m looking to buy

It would appear as though sellers aren?t quite in panic mode or motivated to sell at a discount yet.

Probably best to remain on the sidelines at this point, until the appropriate opportunity presents itself.</blockquote>
Patience young grasshopper, too many knifecatchers out there for low ball offers to even be taken somewhat seriously. I'm finding it hard to believe that some condos in Irvine are still selling around $400/sf.</blockquote>


It?s definitely time to be cautious about catching the falling knife.

My initial offer starts at 8%-10% below list and move up after their counter.

Hoping to strike a deal at 5%, which I consider reasonable and not too far off list.

On a purchase price of $1.399M, we?re talking 70K off list and the deal still doesn?t get done because the seller doesn?t want to leave money on the table.
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223358712]Maybe you should point out to the seller that there's one two doors down on the corner in escrow, listed for $1.325M.</blockquote>


Why not?

I?ll try that next time, right after he mentions he?s got multiple offers at or above list.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1223360787][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1223358712]Maybe you should point out to the seller that there's one two doors down on the corner in escrow, listed for $1.325M.</blockquote>


Why not?

I?ll try that next time, right after he mentions he?s got multiple offers at or above list.</blockquote>
Then tell him he is full of it so good measure and you'll be picking up his property after it becomes an REO at a 25-30% discount. haha
 
<a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/37-Tall-Hedge-Irvine-CA-92603/61643327_zpid">This house in TR just closed for ABOVE list</a>. List is relative. If you lowball a market or below market listing price you'll probably get beat out.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223444640]<a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/37-Tall-Hedge-Irvine-CA-92603/61643327_zpid">This house in TR just closed for ABOVE list</a>. List is relative. If you lowball a market or below market listing price you'll probably get beat out.</blockquote>
I have a few friends who put their house on the market in Massachusetts and their houses sold within a few days.

They had to scramble to buy a new house because they thought it would take months to sell their house.

Also, I have a friend who moved from Newport Beach to Massachusetts and she had to get into a bidding war to purchase her house - and that house was priced right for the current comps. :shut:
 
It seems there is an idea that there are many "cash" buyers out there:



<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/07/oc-buyers-using-smallest-downpayments-in-6-years/4424">downpayments</a>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1223501879]It seems there is an idea that there are many "cash" buyers out there:



<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/07/oc-buyers-using-smallest-downpayments-in-6-years/4424">downpayments</a></blockquote>


I've got something for them... just for Irvine, of course, but this <em>IS</em> the <strong>Irvine</strong> Housing Blog.



January - 33%

February - 34%

March - 37%

April - 38%

May - 36%

June - 35%

July - 39%

August - 41%

Sept - 38%
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1223501879]It seems there is an idea that there are many "cash" buyers out there:



<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/07/oc-buyers-using-smallest-downpayments-in-6-years/4424">downpayments</a></blockquote>


That?s good news for those buyers sitting on a stockpiles of cash.

The bad news is that certain sellers are still trying to hold the line rather than drop their prices.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1223507264][quote author="awgee" date=1223501879]It seems there is an idea that there are many "cash" buyers out there:



<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/07/oc-buyers-using-smallest-downpayments-in-6-years/4424">downpayments</a></blockquote>


That?s good news for those buyers sitting on a stockpiles of cash.

The bad news is that certain sellers are still trying to hold the line rather than drop their prices.</blockquote>


Sellers don't have many reasons to drop prices right now. Consider the conditions:



1. Mortgage rates are uber low up to $729K

2. Government is helping to keep lending guidelines/standards from becoming too restrictive

3. Only 750 or so units on the market in Irvine with perhaps 100 or so in escrow so inventory is low

4. Foreclosure pipeline has been slowed and stalled some by new CA legislation, workouts, etc.



Look at the median days on the market trend:



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/irvdom0908.jpg" alt="" />



Not exactly unhealthy and screaming "drop prices" when DOM is sub 60 days. Couple that with the fact that comps, in a general, haven't really been moving down much since the Spring and I just don't see many reasons for a seller to do anything but price at mid to late 2004 price, kick back, and wait for the buyer to come. Heck, SC just sold his condo for $60K more than his 2004 purchase price. People tend to discount these high sales prices as aberrations but it doesn't take many of them to foster seller resistance. My same condo model sold for $15K higher than my July sales price in August while my place sold for $50K more than the same model late last year. In that small market, it would appear prices are moving up based on comps, so why would anyone thinking about deeply discounting?



Hopefully that will change soon as seven months with no appreciable downward price movement would seem to be more than just a dead cat bounce or seasonality. We may need full-blown recession and high unemployment to get the next step down in home prices.
 
I would agree.

There are a number of sellers that are currently not under pressure to sell.

Higher loan costs, tighter underwriting standards, and more equity down has shrunk the buyer pool dramatically.

Cash is King

Continued economic woes including a severe recession and high unemployment will close the gap between buyer/seller substantially and quickly.

Buckle Up!
 
What about people who loose their businesses or jobs? Because of the economic condition, some are declaring bankruptcy. Rent in my neighborhood for identical size to my house is 10 % lower now.
 
The question in my mind at this point is wether buyer's considering Irvine will also consider a much cheaper house in an area that has been hit harder.



Ladera keeps dropping, Santa Ana seems like every property is underwater, Aliso is getting cheaper.... Will any of these get to a point where you say 'screw it' and live somewhere else? If not, I don't think Irvine is really going to drop all that much more.



A property here and there that the banks are unloading on the cheap is definitely not the norm around here. When inventory is so low, defaults are low, what else could possibly get people to lower their price dramatically?
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1223515936]The question in my mind at this point is wether buyer's considering Irvine will also consider a much cheaper house in an area that has been hit harder.



Ladera keeps dropping, Santa Ana seems like every property is underwater, Aliso is getting cheaper.... Will any of these get to a point where you say 'screw it' and live somewhere else? If not, I don't think Irvine is really going to drop all that much more.



A property here and there that the banks are unloading on the cheap is definitely not the norm around here. When inventory is so low, defaults are low, what else could possibly get people to lower their price dramatically?</blockquote>
I believe the higher-end communities are the last to decline.
 
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