Some things to consider as we experience a trough of lower rates....
A) Back during the last week of March, 2019 we saw fixed rates flop from the low 4's to the upper 3's. - for about 5 days, then things popped up. While I believe there is still some room for this present run to continue,
don't get greedy. The moment someone blinks on this trade war stuff, sub 4% rates could vanish. The 2020 rate begins in earnest roughly 60 days from now and a falling stock market will probably be "fixed" soon, pushing money into risk and out of rates.
B) ARM rate movements do not correlate to fixed rate movement. Yes, all rates have come down, but while fixed rates can be seen to move sharply during a week, ARM's don't always adjust downward at the same rate of speed as their fixed counterparts.
C) As refi pipelines swell, many banks (which include brokers and bankers BTW) are going to ease their foot off the gas, letting profit margins come up a bit to slow the rush of business. It happens every refi boom since the dawn of time.
Expect this turn to come sooner rather than later.
D) The 800 FICO some customers believe they have.... isn't the case. About 110 percent of all customers I've spoken with in the past 30 days with 800 FICO scores turn out to have sub 780 scores. The only way to get an accurate rate - and to have lenders accurately compete for your business -
is to have a hard credit report pull from a lender. More info here:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/103015/are-credit-karma-scores-real-and-accurate.asp
Yes, a 779 FICO vs a 781 FICO might be as much as a .25% difference in rate! It has gotten to the point now that when I get a "what's your rate?" call, the first question I ask is "when did the lender pull your score, who was the lender, and what score did they give you?" If there isn't an answer to those questions, I can only refer folks to our internet rate page as a general idea of where loan terms are. There's no sense quoting terms when 90% of what impacts loan rates is missing.
E) A customer I spoke with on Wednesday got a 2.75% 10/1 ARM, Interest Only from a major bank. Here's how they got that rate:
1) They had $750k with the bank already.
2) They had a real credit report score of 806
3) They had 40% Equity.
4) Their loan was $2.3m
5) The deal was a purchase, not a refi.
Every refi shopper out there has heard this great deal and that great deal is being offered. Bear in mind it's
context, context, context, and your refi deal may not be the same as some being quoted around the office, the gym, or the BBQ this weekend.
F) "I got a 3.875% rate when I bought. Now I'm told rates are down, but I can only get 3.875%! Everyone else is at 3.75! What's up with that???"
If you bought in 2016-2018 Conforming Loan Limits were much lower than where they are today. Banks were able to offer their portfolio loans with better terms to anyone with a mortgage amount over $417,000. Today, Conforming Loan Limits in OC are
$484,350 so any loan below that threshold will need to refinance with a Conforming Loan, not a Bank Portfolio deal. Conforming loan rates are about .125 to .25% higher today than Bank Portfolio terms.
There's plenty more to discuss (tax consequences when over $750k, recourse v no-recourse, money movement to banks, impounding v non-impounding, etc...) but this thread post is long enough. Ping me with your individual questions if they are of a private nature, or post here and I'll try and answer the scenario as best I can.
My .02c
SGIP