How Low Can Home Prices Drop?

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I can't speak for everyone jbatz, so I don't know why people love Irvine so much. I will stay in this area because both my wife and I work in Irvine, we have friends here, and we love the schools. I don't get to see my kids enough as it is so I'm not going to buy someplace farther away from work just to save a few hundred per month on mortgage. I'd rather buy smaller in Irvine vs. bigger in the GG, or Fo V, or HB...
 
Ipop - I sure as heck wouldn't either. Unless I had to. But, I might substitute North Tustin, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange, HB, and just about all of South County. But, I am rather odd. Most folks who look in Irvine probably will not rather purchase someplace else if they can get better value for their money.
 
<em>Most folks who look in Irvine probably will not rather purchase someplace else if they can get better value for their money.</em>





I believe this...and, in fact, the reason I grew up in South County is because my family did the opposite - lived in Irvine, and then moved to South County in the mid-80s because they could get more for the money down there.
 
sounds like racial profiling here to me, people want to stay in waspy irvine because they are afraid that somewhere else might be cheaper and better.
 
<em>"Awesome. Is there anything that I can do, personally, to make the decline longer and the bottom even lower?"</em>





Don't know, but...





How 'bout a 9.0 for 5 minutes...


Nah, that would level everything...


Maybe a series of since size tremors, that'll motivate some sellers quick like... Outward migration anyone?
 
<p>Waspy?</p>

<p>Does that word somehow now mean of asian or persian background?</p>

<p>Check out the ethnic backgrounds of the kids in IUSD schools. My guess is that the average Irvine elementary school is 30-60% non-white. Irvine is melting pot Weird Al... </p>
 
ipoplaya,





I agree the rate of decline will slow as we enter the spring. We may even see a few months of month-over-month increases in the median. However, the rate of foreclosures is certainly not stabilizing, and much more of the inventory on the market right now is "must sell" inventory than we were witnessing last year. The fact that sales volumes have ticked up slightly is to be expected after a 15% drop in the median. This is largely the must-sell inventory being cleared from the books. IMO, by summer, must-sell inventory will dominate the market, and by fall, it will overwhelm it.
 
Alan

Waspy ?

Is that a new name for an Asian Family of 4 ?

We be talking Irvine California here. Not Irvine Texas......



I think Irvine Renters decline charts are spot on.

Total meltdown will be around 40-45% from the peak.

Bottom when forclosures cease in 2011.
 
<p><em>How 'bout a 9.0 for 5 minutes...


Nah, that would level everything... </em></p>

<p>Not one big enough to destroy housing stock. Just need one big enough to scare the living s__t outta everyone, knock out power for 3-5 days, plus 20-30 aftershocks that continue to knock your stuff over. <strong>That </strong>would send people packing. </p>
 
<p>Thinking some more about the 4-5 months being neutral thing - isn't that based on the assumption that it's a "normal market" where most of the listings are homeowners who are loath to sell at a loss, and willing to wait? Is it even valid in a market that may be, hypothetically let's say 50% REO listings with an extreme credit crunch where the REO sellers are really distressed sellers who desperately need the cash right now to cover over problems (ex. defaulting commerical loans, credit cards, LBO deals etc, etc) to avoid going belly up?</p>

<p>Just a thought.</p>
 
My impression is that the big declines are rolling from less to more desirable areas. Irvine is pretty high on the list for OC, so it's going to go late. Livable areas in Anaheim have already gotten creamed and now I'm seeing some breathtaking drops here in Orange. I expect there's a similar pattern heading north in SOC. Irvine has high rents and that will hold up prices although IMO the rent premium will drop somewhat as this progresses.
 
Sam Zell thinks the bottom is in or close. And the credit crunch and recession possibilities are exaggerated by the democrats trying to get in office.<p>


I dunno. I think I'll wait a bit longer.
 
<p>Interesting jump up in list prices at the 75th percentile:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine">http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine</a></p>

<p>Seems like there are far greater number of larger, more expensive homes hitting the market very recently. My search of places in the $1.3-2M range feels liked it's doubled in size as of late...</p>
 
There seems to be some sort of seasonal effect at work with the high end listings. Around this same time last year we went from $899,580 in Jan to $929,000 in March, only to resume the steady decline and end the year around $800,000.
 
<p>I noticed that there seem to be a lot of more expensive homes being listed as well.</p>

<p>Interesting when you consider that in this magazine (<a href="http://www.orangecoastmagazine.com/site/pp.asp?c=ahKQL8NTE&b=7066">http://www.orangecoastmagazine.com/site/pp.asp?c=ahKQL8NTE&b=7066</a>), Feb edition, there was an 2 page ad for Winston's Jewelers - but instead of being the usual buy jewelry for Valentines Day like you'd expect, it was all about NOW BUYING! Diamonds 1 to 30 cts. Highest prices paid! on the first page, and reconditioned luxury watches for sale on the second page...</p>
 
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