How Desperate are the Homebuilders?

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IrvineCommuter_IHB

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<p>I am not sure what to say about this. I will just post it and have you guys comment.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/20989615">www.cnbc.com/id/20989615</a></p>

<p> </p>



KB Home Bets on Disney-Inspired Houses





By Reuters









<p class="textBodyBlack">Faced with the worst U.S. housing market in years, <strong>KB Home</strong> is wishing upon a star. </p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">The No. 5 U.S. home builder said Wednesday it would begin to offer homes customized with <strong>Walt Disney</strong> characters -- such as Mickey Mouse, Cinderella and Pirates of the Caribbean.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">Starting next year, buyers will be able to specify flooring, window coverings and lighting inspired by Disney characters.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">"Almost 60% of KB Home home buyers are families with children," said Wendy Marlett, senior vice president of sales and marketing at KB Home, in a statement.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">The U.S. housing market has been in a steep downturn for nearly two years now, with problems in the credit market and high prices deterring many prospective buyers.</p>

Copyright 2007 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters
 
<p>I have three daughters, two of whom are of Disney appreciation age. Yup, this has got me all atwitter. I have changed my mind. Disney lighting makes all the difference. Where do I sign up?</p>

<p>KB must be appealing to all that rich foreign money that loves everything American and doesn't mind putting money into depreciating assets.</p>

<p></p>
 
That may be remembered as a huge joke when people look back on the desperation of the homebuilders during the decline. It shames me that I used to work for them...





Perhaps we could think of some other movie character inspirations for them...





<img src="http://images.amazon.com/images/G/01/video/stills/star-wars/sw3-54796-r.l.jpg" alt="Star Wars" />
 
<p>There is already a Disney-themed house in the neighborhood behind the parking structure. It has been for sale twice in the last 1.5 years. I can't find a listing now, but it's crazy inside. An imagineer went pyscho inside this house.</p>

<p>What happens when the kids grow up? Or just become snotty teenagers?</p>
 
<img alt="" src="http://media.monstersandcritics.com/articles/1213674/article_images/theaddamsfamilysnapsnap.jpg" />





I want an Adams Family house...
 
<p><img alt="" src="http://int.kateigaho.com/mar04/images/hello-kitty-piano.jpg" /></p>

<p>I believe this is Beazer or Khov's next advertising campaign</p>
 
<p>I suggest - rent a little apartment with no yard, then buy the family Southern California annual passes to Disneyland (<a href="https://secure.disney.go.com/disneyland/en_US/ap/index?name=AnnualPassholderGatewayPage&appRedirect=http://disneyland.disney.go.com/disneyland/en_US/ap/gated/landing?name=AnnualPassholderLandingPage">https://secure.disney.go.com/disneyland/en_US/ap/index?name=AnnualPassholderGatewayPage&appRedirect=http://disneyland.disney.go.com/disneyland/en_US/ap/gated/landing?name=AnnualPassholderLandingPage</a>).</p>

<p>Then when the kids get bored, you can take them there in 20 minutes. And you don't have to clean up the toys on your massively overpriced yard afterwards either :).</p>
 
<p>Oddly enough, investors do not appear to believe that this move will revitalize KB Homes. KBH is currently trading down 3.5 % (at just above $24).</p>

<p>An article about the power alliance</p>

<p><a href="http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/26/the-mouse-is-in-the-house.aspx">www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/26/the-mouse-is-in-the-house.aspx</a></p>
 
Anyone see that skit with Bob Newhart on MadTV?





<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYLMTvxOaeE"> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYLMTvxOaeE</a>





It comes to mind after reading this article.





I have this ingenious advice much like Mr. Newhart had on MadTV. It's called LOWER YOUR PRICES.
 
<p>William Lyons is taking a very different yet equally strange tactic.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.elabs7.com/functions/message_view.html?mid=271199&mlid=4658&siteid=1324657905&uid=22a222cfea">www.elabs7.com/functions/message_view.html</a></p>

<p>"<strong>Let William Lyon Homes and Home Fusion help you sell your home!</strong>





If you have a home you need to sell in order to purchase a new William Lyon home you've had your eye on, we can help. Buying a new home on a contingency basis just became a lot easier with William Lyon's new contingency program. William Lyon Homes can now help you sell your current home. <strong>We'll even ensure that your home is priced properly, so that it sells quickly</strong>." </p>

<p>I wonder if William Lyon is going to "price' their properties "properly...so that it sells quickly"?</p>

<p>


</p>
 
<p><em>I wonder if William Lyon is going to "price' their properties "properly...so that it sells quickly"?</em></p>

<p>You mean William Lyon will be pricing it to 2001 prices. That would be pricing it properly.</p>
 
<p>I thought the Martha Stewart/KB combo was pretty good, I read about it in the LA Times and believe it or not, it made me drive all the way to Perris to check them out. Terrible location but really nice homes with style that you don't typically see in earth tone stucco boxes. I was actually very impressed and would buy if I were in the market and it didn't happen to be in one of the least happiest places on earth. The M.S. / KB combo actually makes more sense than Disney, which seems would be outdated as the kids grow up, while MS is more geared towards adults. They even had nice oversized farm house sinks in the MS models. Although Perris is pretty bad location wise, at least the homes were only in the low 300K range, compared to Corona, where the homes are in the $600K range and are right next to massive cow farms. Phew!</p>
 
What I don't understand is that the market is going down the drain, the builders are losing money and their inventory is not going down significantly but a lot of them still refuse to lower their prices (e.g. lennar/kb). Many of them are offering more incentives but that is never as good as lowering the prices. Anyone predict when they will have to lower prices to reduce their inventory in irvine/tustin?
 
<p><em>>>Anyone predict when they will have to lower prices to reduce their inventory in irvine/tustin?</em> </p>

<p>Much of that depends on land pricing. If the builders are in Irvine and bought / are buying the land from TIC, they're screwed. See IR's Land Value 101 analysis for more.</p>
 
Thanks Eval,





Change of tactic. When will the pressure from the builders on the TIC be so great that the TIC will allow the builders to reduce their prices?
 
I think it has happened some in Portola Springs. Brookfield has significantly dropped prices on Paloma from their opening. To a certain extent, TIC can wait it out (the advantage of a low cost basis and no shareholders to answer to), but they are in the business of land sales/development (among other things), and no point in being in the business if you're not selling your product.
 
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