Housing Analysis

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Back in 2012 when TI was ultra bearish, USC Martin said he bought a house in Tustin. You would have to remember that everyone was bearish after the housing crash and it had been 4 years of flat and declining sales. So a majority still thought 2012 to be in knife catching territory.

I was just looking @ homes in 2012 and thought I could wait longer, but knowing Mr. USC bought a house in early 2012 made it easier to pull the trigger. I know IHO missed this opportunity by a few years, and I wonder if he is still salty after almost a decade.
 
Mety said:
This was my personal experience. I almost bought at Great Park, but that legendary environmental hazard sheet YellowFever posted heavily influenced me to reconsider. I didn't buy there but somewhere else in Irvine which turned out better for our family. But I do think GP has great club houses and pools:cool:. Maybe I'll consider buying there if they get rid of that never ending Mello Roos.
Click to expand...
If you are into pools and club house, Woodbury is the place to be. Beside that, they have big events for kids like Halloween, Easter festivals.
 
@zubs:

I actually went against LL's prediction even though he said Irvine was in for more years of pain and it's worked out quite well for us;

The saltiness is just in response to all the haters of Irvine. :)
 
This forum actually helped me a lot. The AAA, Musick jail, etc were all items brought up by members here on the forum. I wasn't even born in California so being able to have all of you folks bring up your own thoughts has definitely been helpful. Obviously you have to do your due diligence and not listen to some rando.
 
Posted on October 3, 2019:

Liar Loan said:
This is just the first year of what will likely be a multi-year downturn (just my opinion based on historical RE cycles).
Click to expand...

"Multi-year" he says. What happened the next year in 2020?

Liar Loan said:
Pinpointing the exact top depends on the data source used, yet they ALL agree that Irvine has peaked. As explained before, with Redfin's 3-month median, the top could be anywhere between Feb-Apr 2019, not very far off from Larry's one month median showing Dec 2018. If you look at Redfin's $/Sq Ft, it shows prices peaked in May 2018 and are currently down 2.2% since then.

My prior post showing that prices declined during the hottest selling season of the year shows why this isn't seasonal. Prices are supposed to increase from December to September, not decline by 2.3%.
Click to expand...

That HUUUGE price drop LL keeps talking about is only ~2.3% at this time... that's lower than a margin of error.

Liar Loan said:
Bottom line: Irvine is in for a world of pain. (Just look at Compressed Village sweating bullets.)
Click to expand...

And that is the kicker... that LL cannot deny... there was no world of "pain" for the next 3 years (that's "multi-year" right?). And just so you know, he bolded that himself... so he emphasized his own place in history.

Hilarious.

And this just proves a simple point... no one can know everything... take all advice here with a grain of salt.
 
Last edited:
zubs said:
Back in 2012 when TI was ultra bearish, USC Martin said he bought a house in Tustin. You would have to remember that everyone was bearish after the housing crash and it had been 4 years of flat and declining sales. So a majority still thought 2012 to be in knife catching territory.

I was just looking @ homes in 2012 and thought I could wait longer, but knowing Mr. USC bought a house in early 2012 made it easier to pull the trigger. I know IHO missed this opportunity by a few years, and I wonder if he is still salty after almost a decade.
Click to expand...

I didn't know it at the time but I basically bought the home near the 2nd bottom of the market (there was a double bottom in late 2010 before the home buyer credit sugar rush and then in early 2012 before the market picked up later in the year.
 
usctrojancpa said:
I didn't know it at the time but I basically bought the home near the 2nd bottom of the market (there was a double bottom in late 2010 before the home buyer credit sugar rush and then in early 2012 before the market picked up later in the year.
Click to expand...
When do you think the housing market will be at it’s lowest in terms of sales price between July 2023 - December 2025?
 
Mahomiesgoat said:
When do you think the housing market will be at it’s lowest in terms of sales price between July 2023 - December 2025?
Click to expand...

Man that is tough to answer, I thought we'd get another 3-5% downside by mid year in December but looks like the market has flattened out as rates have come down and resale inventory has gone down since year end. Rates will need to rise materially for prices to come down from here unless inventory levels increase significantly. I don't see prices going up though so I my best guestimate is that prices will be flattish in the near term. If the Fed starts cutting rates in 2024 and 2025 and mortgage rates drop then you could see prices going higher.
 
usctrojancpa said:
Man that is tough to answer, I thought we'd get another 3-5% downside by mid year in December but looks like the market has flattened out as rates have come down and resale inventory has gone down since year end. Rates will need to rise materially for prices to come down from here unless inventory levels increase significantly. I don't see prices going up though so I my best guestimate is that prices will be flattish in the near term. If the Fed starts cutting rates in 2024 and 2025 and mortgage rates drop then you could see prices going higher.
Click to expand...
Inventory is key. The unemployment rate needs to get worse adding pressure for people to sell.
 
Back in 2009-2012 when things were going to shit, and loans were hard to come by........it was the best time ever to buy anything...
Properties or Stock Market....you couldn't go wrong!

You guys are wondering if that time has come again...aren't you?

Look how long that once in a lifetime buying opportunity lasted. From 2009 to 2012, 3 years for you to decide to get into something whether AMZN or MSFT or a warehouse, or a strip mall or residential....Oh the wealth you would have today!

For something like that to happen again will require another 20 years....Todays recession is just a standard one.
 
zubs said:
I know IHO missed this opportunity by a few years, and I wonder if he is still salty after almost a decade.
Click to expand...
This actually explains quite a lot. He still harbors bitterness towards Larry about it.

zubs said:
For something like that to happen again will require another 20 years....Todays recession is just a standard one.
Click to expand...
The opportunity of a lifetime seems to come along every few years. Recessions, even minor ones, always create good buying opportunities.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
"Multi-year" he says. What happened the next year in 2020?
Click to expand...
I think we all understand that COVID happened, along with the unprecedented disruptions to the economy that it brought. The Fed dropped the cost of borrowing down to the lowest level in human history, and that led to a speculative frenzy across all asset classes, including homes.
 
Liar Loan said:
This actually explains quite a lot. He still harbors bitterness towards Larry about it.
Click to expand...
Except I didn't miss the opportunity.

And no bitterness... just the bitterness from everyone else who can't admit they were wrong.

Liar Loan said:
I think we all understand that COVID happened, along with the unprecedented disruptions to the economy that it brought. The Fed dropped the cost of borrowing down to the lowest level in human history, and that led to a speculative frenzy across all asset classes, including homes.
Click to expand...

And there it is. Same thing like during the last crash... blaming the Fed and "other" forces.

This why myself and others say you can never know for sure because of what the government will do and what non-fundamentals will come into play.

Finally admission that your "pain" call was wrong... but still pushing some outs behind it. LOL.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Except I didn't miss the opportunity.

And no bitterness... just the bitterness from everyone else who can't admit they were wrong.
Click to expand...
If you say so... We all know your history.

irvinehomeowner said:
And there it is. Same thing like during the last crash... blaming the Fed and "other" forces.
Click to expand...
I didn't blame the Fed or other forces during the last crash. My entire focus has been on not fighting the Fed. That is why I started encouraging people to buy homes and stocks like crazy in 2009 before most of our bear blog compadres believed the bottom was in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top