irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
What is this? Shit on Liar Loans Friday?
The world is going into depression, yoh!
There is bigger things happening.
The world is going into depression, yoh!
There is bigger things happening.
Housing Analysis
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Telling people not to buy at the peak of a massive bubble is not crapping on anything. It's warning them of danger to come.Â
You of all people should appreciate that, since the origins of this forum stem from Larry's efforts to warn people back in 2007.
I did tell people to buy starting in June 2009, and I myself bought a home in late 2010. I received a lot of flack for that from people like awgee, who used to post here and on other forums that I frequented. The thing is it was pretty well established by 2012 that Irvine was recovering so there wouldn't have been much point in me urging people to buy. People that want to buy generally don't need a lot of urging, but they do need urging not to buy when the timing is bad.Â
They are so swept up in emotion, that facts, logic, and data don't easily persuade them, so I do my best to create a negative emotion about buying to dissuade them. That's why I have so many people on this forum hating me, but oh well, I know I've tried to help them by presenting a contrarian viewpoint, and they can let their frustrations out on me if they want.
True, I bought four properties over that time. The problem is for Orange County, about 10 of the last 30 years have had declining property values. So 1/3 of the time, you are better off not buying, especially as a first time buyer. Timing matters... a lot.
Did you post here telling people it?s a good time to buy when you bought 4 properties? (Sorry, I don?t recall, and don?t read every post).
A lot of topics on this board are on the newer homes/new construction, so timing may not apply. Especially if you?re looking for a specific tract, lot, view, etc. Wait until a downturn so you can scoop it up? I don?t think so, best chance in getting said properties is to be high on the list. Some may never hit the market.
According to Redfin, Irvine peaked in April at $1,435k and dropped to $1,260k in August, for a -12% decline so far. (This doesn't include the further losses in September that haven't been tallied yet.)
If Irvine loses another 20%, that would be a -30% decline peak-to-trough.
Yep, Irvine home prices are going down fast, and the charts prove it.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:Liar Loan said:irvinehomeowner said:Liar Loan said:
Nope... just embarrasses you more because you so need to be right after being so wrong for all these years.
It's... well... pathetic. But you do you.
Any more charts you want to post here?
I've only tried to help others. You clearly have more malicious motivations.
Oh really? Never you heard you tell people when to buy... that would be more helpful.
All you've done is cap on Irvine... and Arizona... so who here is the malicious one?
Keep digging that embarrassment hole deeper... it's pure comedy.
Telling people not to buy at the peak of a massive bubble is not crapping on anything. It's warning them of danger to come.Â
You of all people should appreciate that, since the origins of this forum stem from Larry's efforts to warn people back in 2007.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
As far as I know, you've been telling people not to buy in Irvine forever... so not just during the peaks (although based on your posts, I guess you can say you thought it would peak every year).
Many people are probably glad they did not listen to you and are probably sitting on 20-80% pain right now.
Many people are probably glad they did not listen to you and are probably sitting on 20-80% pain right now.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
zubs said:
I did tell people to buy starting in June 2009, and I myself bought a home in late 2010. I received a lot of flack for that from people like awgee, who used to post here and on other forums that I frequented. The thing is it was pretty well established by 2012 that Irvine was recovering so there wouldn't have been much point in me urging people to buy. People that want to buy generally don't need a lot of urging, but they do need urging not to buy when the timing is bad.Â
They are so swept up in emotion, that facts, logic, and data don't easily persuade them, so I do my best to create a negative emotion about buying to dissuade them. That's why I have so many people on this forum hating me, but oh well, I know I've tried to help them by presenting a contrarian viewpoint, and they can let their frustrations out on me if they want.
zubs
Well-known member
2009 all the way to 2020 were all good times to buy.
You would be richer now if you bought @ anytime in those 11 years....
Which means you would be @ a loss if you sold during those 11 years....unless you exchanged it for something else.
Which leads me to the reason I never sell. I dunno what to do with the extra cash so I just leave it.
You would be richer now if you bought @ anytime in those 11 years....
Which means you would be @ a loss if you sold during those 11 years....unless you exchanged it for something else.
Which leads me to the reason I never sell. I dunno what to do with the extra cash so I just leave it.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
zubs said:
True, I bought four properties over that time. The problem is for Orange County, about 10 of the last 30 years have had declining property values. So 1/3 of the time, you are better off not buying, especially as a first time buyer. Timing matters... a lot.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Just like others have said... time in is probably more important than timing... and much easier to manage.
Liar Loan said:
Did you post here telling people it?s a good time to buy when you bought 4 properties? (Sorry, I don?t recall, and don?t read every post).
A lot of topics on this board are on the newer homes/new construction, so timing may not apply. Especially if you?re looking for a specific tract, lot, view, etc. Wait until a downturn so you can scoop it up? I don?t think so, best chance in getting said properties is to be high on the list. Some may never hit the market.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Wow.... John Burns Real Estate Consulting is predicting 20% price declines for Southern California!!
Palacios said that when rates were at 5%, his firm expected price declines in Southern California of about 10%, peak to trough, but now the expected decline has roughly doubled.
Although that's not Great Recession level, "it's nothing to sneeze at," he said. "These will probably be the most significant price declines seen outside from maybe a couple other instances in history."
Rising mortgage rates are sending SoCal home prices lower
According to one measure from John Burns Real Estate Consulting, prices in L.A. County are already down 3% from September 2021.Palacios said that when rates were at 5%, his firm expected price declines in Southern California of about 10%, peak to trough, but now the expected decline has roughly doubled.
Although that's not Great Recession level, "it's nothing to sneeze at," he said. "These will probably be the most significant price declines seen outside from maybe a couple other instances in history."
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
A 20% price decline from the peak brings prices down to 4Q 2021 price levels for Irvine as Irvine was up about 15% YTD in April/May.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
According to Redfin, Irvine peaked in April at $1,435k and dropped to $1,260k in August, for a -12% decline so far. (This doesn't include the further losses in September that haven't been tallied yet.)
If Irvine loses another 20%, that would be a -30% decline peak-to-trough.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Uh oh... LL is posting his fuzzy Redfin charts again.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Yep, Irvine home prices are going down fast, and the charts prove it.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
A year ago, I was doing my best to warn TI readers against buying at the peak of a bubble. Some disregarded that advice in the nastiest way possible (CareBears, TestyIrvine). Others like Accidental Analytics and BlackKnight are too embarrassed to show their faces anymore. Now we have the lowest pending home sales in US history (excluding the COVID blip). As IHO likes to remind us, prices follow sales.
The National Association of Realtors index of contract signings to purchase previously owned homes decreased 4% last month to 73.9, the lowest outside of the pandemic in data back to 2001, according to a release Wednesday. The drop was worse than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
US Pending Home Sales Fall to Second-Lowest Level on Record
US pending home sales fell for a sixth month in November to the second-lowest on record as higher borrowing costs and an uncertain economic outlook kept many potential buyers out of the market.The National Association of Realtors index of contract signings to purchase previously owned homes decreased 4% last month to 73.9, the lowest outside of the pandemic in data back to 2001, according to a release Wednesday. The drop was worse than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
There are 2 drivers of low pending homes sales and closed sales.....primarily a widening between the bid (buyer)/ask (seller) spread and secondarily lower than normal inventory levels.
Local shocker in the paper this week was the Marin County median down 27% from the April peak. Coming to a housing market near you.
ThirtySomethingWEquity
Active member
Yeah we knew this was going to happen regardless of national trends. Remote work meant more people were going to… SVtoOC.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Haha... right. Please cite your prediction that Marin county would be down 27% in 8 months... LOL
