Housing Analysis

[irvinebullhousing]

Check this thread... there were people saying housing was going to drop in 2018 and on... but NONE of those same people said to get back in before prices exploded. So were people better off buying during "The Great Drop" or waiting until now?

REMINDER: You refused to acknowledge the drop until Cares, USC, and others basically forced you to admit it with their own data.  Now it's YOU shifting the goal posts by saying: "It's not a valid prediction unless you say when people should jump back in."  Haha!!

Here you go with your dancing posts again.

You really should just be called Liar... not Liar Loan.

If you recall... back then I kept asking "How much?"... I even posted a poll for it because I said if the drop was within a percentage of seasonal drops... it's not really a drop. What was the The Great Drop of 2018?

You predicted "pain" for Irvine home owners... where is it? Anyone who bought before 2018 or during 2018-2020 doesn't seem to be in very much pain right now.

Irvine home owners lost money over those years while the rest of OC was still going up, up, up, and I warned you.  The best move would have been to sell your Irvine clunker and buy a non-Irvine coastal home.  You would have avoided the price drops AND benefitted from the stimulus-driven appreciation of the past two years.

This advice only applies if you care about Max ROI.  If you don't mind losing money on Irvine homes in exchange for high mello roos and toxic waste in your water supply, well then by all means, keep paying up!

You are the one moving goalposts now. You are mixing MRs, toxicity, max ROI and whatever else you want to throw in to prove your "pain" prediction.

I'm sorry you are so hurt that Irvine didn't die like you wanted it to, but when you are the only one in the room making the argument... logic dictates that maybe you aren't on the right side of it.

But Liar Loan never admits fault... EVER. And that's a you problem.

It?s like talking to a brick wall. This dude, want nothing but wanting to see Irvine dip.

I wonder if there is closetooceantalk so I can join?

 

[sleepy5136]

Check this thread... there were people saying housing was going to drop in 2018 and on... but NONE of those same people said to get back in before prices exploded. So were people better off buying during "The Great Drop" or waiting until now?

REMINDER: You refused to acknowledge the drop until Cares, USC, and others basically forced you to admit it with their own data.  Now it's YOU shifting the goal posts by saying: "It's not a valid prediction unless you say when people should jump back in."  Haha!!

Irvine home owners lost money over those years while the rest of OC was still going up, up, up, and I warned you.  The best move would have been to sell your Irvine clunker and buy a non-Irvine coastal home.  You would have avoided the price drops AND benefitted from the stimulus-driven appreciation of the past two years.

This advice only applies if you care about Max ROI.  If you don't mind losing money on Irvine homes in exchange for high mello roos and toxic waste in your water supply, well then by all means, keep paying up!

You don't lose $$ unless you sell.

I'm trying to understand your point but TBH it makes no sense. You're treating a home like the stock market. You don't sell your home one day and have the ability to buy back in without huge costs involved. It involves commissions and other costs to move (movers, additional cost for short term lease for your rental, etc). What you're saying is not practical at all. 

 

[CalBears96]

Check this thread... there were people saying housing was going to drop in 2018 and on... but NONE of those same people said to get back in before prices exploded. So were people better off buying during "The Great Drop" or waiting until now?

REMINDER: You refused to acknowledge the drop until Cares, USC, and others basically forced you to admit it with their own data.  Now it's YOU shifting the goal posts by saying: "It's not a valid prediction unless you say when people should jump back in."  Haha!!

Irvine home owners lost money over those years while the rest of OC was still going up, up, up, and I warned you.  The best move would have been to sell your Irvine clunker and buy a non-Irvine coastal home.  You would have avoided the price drops AND benefitted from the stimulus-driven appreciation of the past two years.

This advice only applies if you care about Max ROI.  If you don't mind losing money on Irvine homes in exchange for high mello roos and toxic waste in your water supply, well then by all means, keep paying up!

You don't lose $$ unless you sell.

I'm trying to understand your point but TBH it makes no sense. You're treating a home like the stock market. You don't sell your home one day and have the ability to buy back in without huge costs involved. It involves commissions and other costs to move (movers, additional cost for short term lease for your rental, etc). What you're saying is not practical at all.

Just like CV said, you're talking to a brick wall.

 

[Liar Loan]

Check this thread... there were people saying housing was going to drop in 2018 and on... but NONE of those same people said to get back in before prices exploded. So were people better off buying during "The Great Drop" or waiting until now?

REMINDER: You refused to acknowledge the drop until Cares, USC, and others basically forced you to admit it with their own data.  Now it's YOU shifting the goal posts by saying: "It's not a valid prediction unless you say when people should jump back in."  Haha!!

Irvine home owners lost money over those years while the rest of OC was still going up, up, up, and I warned you.  The best move would have been to sell your Irvine clunker and buy a non-Irvine coastal home.  You would have avoided the price drops AND benefitted from the stimulus-driven appreciation of the past two years.

This advice only applies if you care about Max ROI.  If you don't mind losing money on Irvine homes in exchange for high mello roos and toxic waste in your water supply, well then by all means, keep paying up!

You don't lose $$ unless you sell.

I'm trying to understand your point but TBH it makes no sense. You're treating a home like the stock market. You don't sell your home one day and have the ability to buy back in without huge costs involved. It involves commissions and other costs to move (movers, additional cost for short term lease for your rental, etc). What you're saying is not practical at all. 

Selling an Irvine clunker and buying in a better performing area isn't difficult to understand unless you're emotionally attached.  You would have avoided the -8% Irvine loss (by USC's unbiased estimation) and gained around 14% in a better area over that same time, for a net financial benefit of 22% on your investment.  This is before the recent stimulus-driven gains of the COVID era that led to an additional 38% gain since 2020.

It was IHO that mentioned selling in Irvine and then rebuying later, and that if I didn't call the exact top and exact bottom to his liking, then my call of Irvine's decline was invalid in his mind.  I agree that his posts are confusing.

It's ok if you love Irvine and don't want to treat your house as a way to increase your net worth, but at least acknowledge the 22% opportunity cost of holding in Irvine during that downturn.  It only took mortgage rates hitting 5% to stall Irvine home prices in 2018.  Maybe next time will be different.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

... stall Irvine home prices in 2018. 

Make up your mind. Was it "stall", "drop" or "pain"?

Maybe next time will be different.

Yes... heed your own advice.

Still waiting for those "price lags that follow sales volume" that never happened.

"The Great Irvine Price Drop" was such a non-event, meccos12 took his ball and went home.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Good thing this forum has a quote function:

the Irvine slump in 2018 that lasted for three years as the rest of OC made solid price gains.

Do you have definitive proof of this other than OCHN? Seems like it was the same throughout OC.

USCTrojanCPA publishes the charts here monthly.  I'm surprised you haven't seen them.

Still don't see "slump" vs "solid price gains".

Even Cares' post details that they are closer than your statement is trying to imply.

His chart for the three years 2018-2020:

Irvine:  $860k to $900k = 5%  <--Slump
OC:      $670k to $790k = 18% <--Solid price gain

US Inflation over that time = 5.5%
So buyers in Irvine lost money in real terms!!

Yeah but what about financed buyers?  They made money right?
Not if they were borrowing money for 2-3% to finance an investment that only increased by 1.5% annually.

This is why Liar Loan can't be trusted.

His very own posts say that Irvine prices went up 5% from 2018-2020.

This was when he was predicting a "drop" and "pain" for Irvine.

Then he changes it to "compared to the rest of OC".

And now he's adding in MRs, toxicity and not living close enough to the ocean as what he means by "pain".

Keep working that bulldozer.... your goalposts need to be moved again.

 

[Liar Loan]

the peak price per SF was $496/sf in May 2018 and the bottom was $463/sf in Nov 2019 so the decline was 6.7% and the median peak sales price was $890,000 in June 2018 and bottom was $815,000 in Jan. 2020 so the decline was 8.4%. These 2 data points were for ALL Irvine properties, not just SFRs.

I called it a slump based on a chart that Cares posted, but USC took it a step further and called it a decline based on his own charts. 

The Irvine -8% is taken from USC's analysis quoted above, and as a highly respected realtor, I think we should all start listening to him.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Dance dance dance... your "emotional" disdain for Irvine has made your posts morekaos level of worthlessness.

Just admit the pain you predicted never materialized... it's okay to be wrong.

 

[Liar Loan]

Denial is the first stage of grief.  It's ok friend.  I have a shoulder you can cry on anytime.

 

[Liar Loan]

USC's wish is coming true... Thankfully, there won't be anything suppressing demand, preventing this inventory from being soaked up.

Here Come The New Listings

The number of homes listed for sale in February jumped by 13.4% year-over-year, after the 13.2% jump in January, and were down only 3.0% from February 2020.

New listings come out of the woodwork when interest rates rise and volume stalls ? because it?s now suddenly time to put the extra house on the market before the market turns. In February, new listings essentially rose back to the normal range for a February, after having been woefully low during the past two years.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/03/18/a...for-7th-month-and-suddenly-new-listings-jump/

 

[AccidentalAnalytics]

Broken Clock

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Denial is the first stage of grief.  It's ok friend.  I have a shoulder you can cry on anytime.

Where is that Irvine pain again?

Sore prognosticator.

 

[Liar Loan]

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Don?t do it Liars. That?s Liars standing at the stern about to jump ship. It?s Ok to be wrong. Not the end of the world.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

What Liar Loan thinks about himself when he predicts Irvine prices:

Sadly, the reality of how long he has to wait before it comes true:

 

[irvinebullhousing]

What Liar Loan thinks about himself when he predicts Irvine prices:

Sadly, the reality of how long he has to wait before it comes true:

Endless entertainment. I laughed to tears......

Just what I needed in time of chaos.

 

[Liar Loan]

If somebody starts playing that horrible Celine Dion song, I really may jump ship.  Goodbye world!!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Nearrrr... farrr.... wherever you arrrrreeee....

 

[Liar Loan]

The average mortgage payment is higher than the Great Recession, higher than the 2018 Irvine recession, and 22% higher than one year ago.  And it doesn't even include the rate increases from March!!  That can't be good, right?

https://www.mba.org/2022-press-rele...payment-jumped-83-percent-in-february-to-1653

 

[usctrojancpa]

LL, rates need to go even higher if they'll start making a dent in the market demand.  We still have a serious lack of inventory, inventory levels are up slightly in the past month.