Housing Analysis

[irvinebullhousing]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.

Beauty is in the eye-of-beholder. Some find beauty in charts, some find beauty in where they live.

There are many closet Irvine Talk Bloggers lover out there.

I find beauty in all of the above, AND my HUUGGE equities, dispite the up and down. Who gives a FUCK if it down for one month. You gotta live longer than that. ha ha.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

LL's screen name should be Cherry Picking Loan... since his claims of disproving my assertions are backed by poor data points and fuzzy math.

If he going to say he disproved me without quoting and just using rhetoric like "shattering another frequently believed myth on IT"... I guess I could say this:

There is a reason why he's called "Liar" Loan.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.

And notice the median price bottom after 2018 were never lower than lowest bottom before 2018... so can we really call them slumps?

#cherry

 

[CalBears96]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.

Beauty is in the eye-of-beholder. Some find beauty in charts, some find beauty in where they live.

There are many closet Irvine Talk Bloggers lover out there.

I find beauty in all of the above, AND my HUUGGE equities, dispite the up and down. Who gives a FUCK if it down for one month. You gotta live longer than that. ha ha.

We just bought Bluffs 2 at PS because my wife absolutely loves the area. We plan to live here for a long time, hopefully 30-40 years, so yeah, I don't give a FUCK if we bought it at the peak right now. We wanted to move to Irvine now and we're willing to pay for it.

 

[BlackKnight]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.

Beauty is in the eye-of-beholder. Some find beauty in charts, some find beauty in where they live.

There are many closet Irvine Talk Bloggers lover out there.

I find beauty in all of the above, AND my HUUGGE equities, dispite the up and down. Who gives a FUCK if it down for one month. You gotta live longer than that. ha ha.

We just bought Bluffs 2 at PS because my wife absolutely loves the area. We plan to live here for a long time, hopefully 30-40 years, so yeah, I don't give a FUCK if we bought it at the peak right now. We wanted to move to Irvine now and we're willing to pay for it.

When i bought my Mendocino in SG in 2014 for $800k, some friends said I was nut. It?s gonna come down. I told them it only matters when i sell it in 20-30 years.

Look who is nut now.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but the peak price per SF was $496/sf in May 2018 and the bottom was $463/sf in Nov 2019 so the decline was 6.7% and the median peak sales price was $890,000 in June 2018 and bottom was $815,000 in Jan. 2020 so the decline was 8.4%. These 2 data points were for ALL Irvine properties, not just SFRs.

 

[zubs]

LL is just trolling you guys.  He picked the peak and the trough data pts to see how many people would react.
and is laughing at every serious response.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.

Beauty is in the eye-of-beholder. Some find beauty in charts, some find beauty in where they live.

There are many closet Irvine Talk Bloggers lover out there.

I find beauty in all of the above, AND my HUUGGE equities, dispite the up and down. Who gives a FUCK if it down for one month. You gotta live longer than that. ha ha.

We just bought Bluffs 2 at PS because my wife absolutely loves the area. We plan to live here for a long time, hopefully 30-40 years, so yeah, I don't give a FUCK if we bought it at the peak right now. We wanted to move to Irvine now and we're willing to pay for it.

Cool, congrats. I am sure you will love it in PS.

Welcome, neighbor.

 

[CalBears96]

Cool, congrats. I am sure you will love it in PS.

Welcome, neighbor.

Thanks. We look forward to the move.

For me, it's going to be a change to drive 15 mins to work instead of an hour, of which 20 mins is sitting in traffic on 71 and 91.

 

[Liar Loan]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.

Yes, that is typically how downturns are measured.  The Great Recession downturn was measured from the peak in 2007 to the low point in 2009 or 2011.  IHO/Zubs falsely claimed the GR downturn was only 15-20% (true misinformation), and notice how they avoid that topic like the plague now.

You did post vaccine misinformation...so yes I did accuse you, because you did.

I find beauty in all of the above, AND my HUUGGE equities, dispite the up and down. Who gives a FUCK if it down for one month. You gotta live longer than that. ha ha.

You wanted to bet me on future price moves.  I challenged you to give it to charity instead.  What happened after that?  We didn't hear from you?

Here is a re-issue of the challenge:  I will match any amount you give to charity.  But please if you're going to brag about your stocks gains, then don't be cheap about it.

LL's screen name should be Cherry Picking Loan... since his claims of disproving my assertions are backed by poor data points and fuzzy math.

If he going to say he disproved me without quoting and just using rhetoric like "shattering another frequently believed myth on IT"... I guess I could say this:

There is a reason why he's called "Liar" Loan.

Even USC chimed in to admit that Irvine prices declined.  He has vastly more Irvine real estate knowledge than you, so the debate is over.

And notice the median price bottom after 2018 were never lower than lowest bottom before 2018... so can we really call them slumps?

#cherry

Yes, of course we can.  Irvine took it in the shorts and you have been obsessed with covering it up ever since.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but the peak price per SF was $496/sf in May 2018 and the bottom was $463/sf in Nov 2019 so the decline was 6.7% and the median peak sales price was $890,000 in June 2018 and bottom was $815,000 in Jan. 2020 so the decline was 8.4%. These 2 data points were for ALL Irvine properties, not just SFRs.

My numbers are from the charts you posted in this thread for SFR's.  Why did you post those charts, while citing the price declines for ALL properties (which to your credit, you at least admit)? 

LL is just trolling you guys.  He picked the peak and the trough data pts to see how many people would react.
and is laughing at every serious response.

And yet Irvine went nowhere for three years, while the rest of OC flourished.  Real dollars were lost and the pain is obviously bad.  Just look at all these responses.

 

[BlackKnight]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.

Yes, that is typically how downturns are measured.  The Great Recession downturn was measured from the peak in 2007 to the low point in 2009 or 2011.  IHO/Zubs falsely claimed the GR downturn was only 15-20% (true misinformation), and notice how they avoid that topic like the plague now.

You did post vaccine misinformation...so yes I did accuse you, because you did.

I find beauty in all of the above, AND my HUUGGE equities, dispite the up and down. Who gives a FUCK if it down for one month. You gotta live longer than that. ha ha.

You wanted to bet me on future price moves.  I challenged you to give it to charity instead.  What happened after that?  We didn't hear from you?

Here is a re-issue of the challenge:  I will match any amount you give to charity.  But please if you're going to brag about your stocks gains, then don't be cheap about it.

LL's screen name should be Cherry Picking Loan... since his claims of disproving my assertions are backed by poor data points and fuzzy math.

If he going to say he disproved me without quoting and just using rhetoric like "shattering another frequently believed myth on IT"... I guess I could say this:

There is a reason why he's called "Liar" Loan.

Even USC chimed in to admit that Irvine prices declined.  He has vastly more Irvine real estate knowledge than you, so the debate is over.

And notice the median price bottom after 2018 were never lower than lowest bottom before 2018... so can we really call them slumps?

#cherry

Yes, of course we can.  Irvine took it in the shorts and you have been obsessed with covering it up ever since.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but the peak price per SF was $496/sf in May 2018 and the bottom was $463/sf in Nov 2019 so the decline was 6.7% and the median peak sales price was $890,000 in June 2018 and bottom was $815,000 in Jan. 2020 so the decline was 8.4%. These 2 data points were for ALL Irvine properties, not just SFRs.

My numbers are from the charts you posted in this thread for SFR's.  Why did you post those charts, while citing the price declines for ALL properties (which to your credit, you at least admit)? 

LL is just trolling you guys.  He picked the peak and the trough data pts to see how many people would react.
and is laughing at every serious response.

And yet Irvine went nowhere for three years, while the rest of OC flourished.  Real dollars were lost and the pain is obviously bad.  Just look at all these responses.

Hey LL Bean, dont you have work to do instead of spending long @ss time to type a response. To be honest, i dont even bother reading if it?s more than 2 paragraphs.

 

[CalBears96]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.

Yes, that is typically how downturns are measured.  The Great Recession downturn was measured from the peak in 2007 to the low point in 2009 or 2011.  IHO/Zubs falsely claimed the GR downturn was only 15-20% (true misinformation), and notice how they avoid that topic like the plague now.

You did post vaccine misinformation...so yes I did accuse you, because you did.

This post tells me that I can stop taking you seriously. I did not post misinformation about vaccine, but you did post misinformation about this.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

One thing that I don't think is in the MLS numbers... new home sales.

That's a data point that separates Irvine from many OC cities and is not reflected in these comparisons. Not sure if those sales makes Irvine looks slumpier... or the best place to live EVAAAAAHHHHH!

 

[lnc]

One thing that I don't think is in the MLS numbers... new home sales.

That's a data point that separates Irvine from many OC cities and is not reflected in these comparisons. Not sure if those sales makes Irvine looks slumpier... or the best place to live EVAAAAAHHHHH!

This!!

Abundance of new builds, especially higher number of the entry level "starter homes" sold, make the average selling price lower. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Another difference about this "bubble" (if we can call it that) is that resale inventory is low.

During the 05-06 one, everyone and their dog was putting their house on the market... I don't see the plethora of open house signs like back then.

It's almost like people are keeping their house and buying a 2nd or 3rd one.

 

[Liar Loan]

Gary Shilling is a bit of a permabear, but he makes some good observations in this article.

The Housing Party Is Starting to Wind Down

But the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, and rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have already risen from 2.82% in February 2021 to a recent 3.84%. Also, the spread between those mortgage rates and yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to which they are linked has risen from 1.4 percentage points in May to 1.9 percentage points, suggesting that mortgage rates will continue to rise faster than Treasury yields. Furthermore, the central bank was a massive buyer of mortgage-backed securities, purchasing some $2.7 trillion during the last cycle, or 23% of the amount outstanding. As it concludes those purchases in March and then, very likely, begins to sell what it holds, the negative effects on the mortgage market will be much greater than past Fed tightenings.

The high probability of a Fed-precipitated recession is also a major negative for single-family housing.  The central bank doesn?t intend to touch off business downturns when it tightens credit, but in 11 of the 12 times in raised its main policy rate since the early 1950s, a recession followed. The only soft landing was in the early 1990s. The challenge of ending purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and reducing its balance-sheet assets this time only raises the likelihood of a recession.

Last month, the median single-family house price jumped 14% to $357,000 from a year earlier, according to Redfin. The median-priced house leaped from 4.2 times median household income in the first quarter of 2019 to 5.6 times median in the fourth quarter of 2021, exceeding the previous record high of 5 times during the fourth quarter of 2005 when the subprime mortgage bubble was in full swing.

I don?t look for a huge single-family housing price plunge as during the subprime mortgage collapse, but a decline of 15% to 20% seems likely.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-09/the-housing-party-is-starting-to-wind-down

TL;DR

-Mortgage rates will rise faster than Treasury yields.
-Fed tightening has led to a recession 11/12 of the past cycles.
-Price:Income ratio is now higher than the subprime bubble.
-A 15-20% NATIONWIDE DECLINE IS IN THE BAG!!!  (Liar Loan note: OC always does worse than the nation.)

 

[usctrojancpa]

Gary Shilling is a bit of a permabear, but he makes some good observations in this article.

The Housing Party Is Starting to Wind Down

But the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, and rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have already risen from 2.82% in February 2021 to a recent 3.84%. Also, the spread between those mortgage rates and yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to which they are linked has risen from 1.4 percentage points in May to 1.9 percentage points, suggesting that mortgage rates will continue to rise faster than Treasury yields. Furthermore, the central bank was a massive buyer of mortgage-backed securities, purchasing some $2.7 trillion during the last cycle, or 23% of the amount outstanding. As it concludes those purchases in March and then, very likely, begins to sell what it holds, the negative effects on the mortgage market will be much greater than past Fed tightenings.

The high probability of a Fed-precipitated recession is also a major negative for single-family housing.  The central bank doesn?t intend to touch off business downturns when it tightens credit, but in 11 of the 12 times in raised its main policy rate since the early 1950s, a recession followed. The only soft landing was in the early 1990s. The challenge of ending purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and reducing its balance-sheet assets this time only raises the likelihood of a recession.

Last month, the median single-family house price jumped 14% to $357,000 from a year earlier, according to Redfin. The median-priced house leaped from 4.2 times median household income in the first quarter of 2019 to 5.6 times median in the fourth quarter of 2021, exceeding the previous record high of 5 times during the fourth quarter of 2005 when the subprime mortgage bubble was in full swing.

I don?t look for a huge single-family housing price plunge as during the subprime mortgage collapse, but a decline of 15% to 20% seems likely.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-09/the-housing-party-is-starting-to-wind-down

TL;DR

-Mortgage rates will rise faster than Treasury yields.
-Fed tightening has led to a recession 11/12 of the past cycles.
-Price:Income ratio is now higher than the subprime bubble.
-A 15-20% NATIONWIDE DECLINE IS IN THE BAG!!!  (Liar Loan note: OC always does worse than the nation.)

Not what I'm seeing in Irvine LL.  Prices have been melting up in Irvine due to the lack of inventory.  I've said it many times, inventory will be the tell where homes prices are going and right now there is a serious lack of inventory.  Higher prices and rates have taken some buyers out of the market but now instead of 20-30 offers on homes, there's 15-20.  There's have to be some kind of huge shock in the market for prices to come down 15-20%, I don't see it happening.  The rise in prices is a complete reset like 2013 was.

 

[Liar Loan]

Not what I'm seeing in Irvine LL.  Prices have been melting up in Irvine due to the lack of inventory.  I've said it many times, inventory will be the tell where homes prices are going and right now there is a serious lack of inventory.  Higher prices and rates have taken some buyers out of the market but now instead of 20-30 offers on homes, there's 15-20.  There's have to be some kind of huge shock in the market for prices to come down 15-20%, I don't see it happening.  The rise in prices is a complete reset like 2013 was.

There's only one direction inventory can go from here, especially with the headwinds that are building.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Inventory will remain historic low. People locked into low rates for the life of the loans 15, 20, 30 years at sub 3% will never give it up.

It will be stagflation.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Gary Shilling is a bit of a permabear, but he makes some good observations in this article.

The Housing Party Is Starting to Wind Down

But the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, and rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have already risen from 2.82% in February 2021 to a recent 3.84%. Also, the spread between those mortgage rates and yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to which they are linked has risen from 1.4 percentage points in May to 1.9 percentage points, suggesting that mortgage rates will continue to rise faster than Treasury yields. Furthermore, the central bank was a massive buyer of mortgage-backed securities, purchasing some $2.7 trillion during the last cycle, or 23% of the amount outstanding. As it concludes those purchases in March and then, very likely, begins to sell what it holds, the negative effects on the mortgage market will be much greater than past Fed tightenings.

The high probability of a Fed-precipitated recession is also a major negative for single-family housing.  The central bank doesn?t intend to touch off business downturns when it tightens credit, but in 11 of the 12 times in raised its main policy rate since the early 1950s, a recession followed. The only soft landing was in the early 1990s. The challenge of ending purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and reducing its balance-sheet assets this time only raises the likelihood of a recession.

Last month, the median single-family house price jumped 14% to $357,000 from a year earlier, according to Redfin. The median-priced house leaped from 4.2 times median household income in the first quarter of 2019 to 5.6 times median in the fourth quarter of 2021, exceeding the previous record high of 5 times during the fourth quarter of 2005 when the subprime mortgage bubble was in full swing.

I don?t look for a huge single-family housing price plunge as during the subprime mortgage collapse, but a decline of 15% to 20% seems likely.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-09/the-housing-party-is-starting-to-wind-down

TL;DR

-Mortgage rates will rise faster than Treasury yields.
-Fed tightening has led to a recession 11/12 of the past cycles.
-Price:Income ratio is now higher than the subprime bubble.
-A 15-20% NATIONWIDE DECLINE IS IN THE BAG!!!  (Liar Loan note: OC always does worse than the nation.)

Not what I'm seeing in Irvine LL.  Prices have been melting up in Irvine due to the lack of inventory.  I've said it many times, inventory will be the tell where homes prices are going and right now there is a serious lack of inventory.  Higher prices and rates have taken some buyers out of the market but now instead of 20-30 offers on homes, there's 15-20.  There's have to be some kind of huge shock in the market for prices to come down 15-20%, I don't see it happening.  The rise in prices is a complete reset like 2013 was.

The "soft landing" of the early 90's resulted in the OC BK when Greenie was complaining of Irrational Exuberance. He was forced to lower again which fueled the stock market as well as housing in areas outside the OC (which continued to fall due to the BK). I wouldn't call that a soft landing. My TR house fell 40%. Granted I did buy at the top (but also sold a place I wanted out of at the top).

The fed ALWAYS goes to far. But for now it's supply/demand. If rates go up, there is always some other type of loan. It makes little sense now with rates THIS low but if they rise, I'll bet we'll see more 5, 7 or 10 year fixed and then adjustable loans.

It does seem there must be some kind of cap to how far we can go before buyers just say I can't afford more and buy something smaller, quit or look in other areas. I don't know what that is. Maybe it depends on the lower end being too expensive so move up buyers can't pay more if they don't get more for their houses?