Housing Analysis

[irvinebullhousing]

I predict this seasonal change will be hot. More hot than last season. Global warming for both weather and residential real estate. Now, what are we going to do with commercial spaces sitting empty?

Could convert it house transients is one proposal. Have the government dole out fundings for those owners. Billions going to develop shelters for homeless on the deck for that 2 trillions bills still get dueling out.

I am not shock at such a figures anymore. Just don?t be more wasteful or so much, much wasteful in grid lock. Homelessness is not going away.

 

[Liar Loan]

Home prices to drop by late 2022, says the Mortgage Bankers Association

While the Mortgage Bankers Association foresees the median price of existing homes posting a 15.3% year-over-year gain to $362,000 in the first quarter of 2022, it sees prices beginning to fall as the year progresses. The group expects the median price of existing homes to end 2022 at $352,000. That would represent a 2.5% year-over-year drop in home prices.

What?s going on? A lot of it boils down to inflation?or what higher inflation means for the market.

The latest reading of the consumer price index in October made it clear that stubbornly high inflation could be around longer than economists were assuming. That has increased the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, and thus mortgage rates, as a means of reining in inflation. A rise in mortgage rates?which have dropped to near record lows as the Fed kept money cheap to ease the economic effects of the pandemic?would lock some buyers out of the market altogether and put downward pressure on prices.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will hit 3.7% by the third quarter of 2022, and 4% by the end of 2022.

https://fortune.com/2021/11/08/home...ers-association-fed-inflation-interest-rates/

 

[zubs]

Predicting a 2.5% drop in home prices @ end 2022 is same as saying home prices will be flat in the coming year, and if you find something you like...

get it.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I'll keep saying this....until inventory levels increase materially, home prices will keep going up.  Simple econ 101 supply/demand dynamics at work.

 

[fatduck]

it's also US home prices catching up to the rest of the world

US home prices (relative to US incomes) have historically been fairly cheap compared to europe and developed asian countries

 

[irvinehomeowner]

2.5% drop?!?

Seasonal?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

We have only one season in California, HOT!

Dang, those heats are killing me and going bonker.

 

[Liar Loan]

Predicting a 2.5% drop in home prices @ end 2022 is same as saying home prices will be flat in the coming year, and if you find something you like...

get it.

Flat years typically precipitate housing crashes.  The best case scenario would be a repeat of 1980-85 with five years of flat prices and 10% inflation eroding buyers' power.

I'll keep saying this....until inventory levels increase materially, home prices will keep going up.  Simple econ 101 supply/demand dynamics at work.

An oversupply of money means a shortage of real estate.  What happens when conditions reverse?

2.5% drop?!?

Seasonal?

Yes, I remember the three years of seasonal drops that Irvine sustained until QE was turned back on.  tic, tic, tic...

 

[usctrojancpa]

Predicting a 2.5% drop in home prices @ end 2022 is same as saying home prices will be flat in the coming year, and if you find something you like...

get it.

Flat years typically precipitate housing crashes.  The best case scenario would be a repeat of 1980-85 with five years of flat prices and 10% inflation eroding buyers' power.

I'll keep saying this....until inventory levels increase materially, home prices will keep going up.  Simple econ 101 supply/demand dynamics at work.

An oversupply of money means a shortage of real estate.  What happens when conditions reverse?

2.5% drop?!?

Seasonal?

Yes, I remember the three years of seasonal drops that Irvine sustained until QE was turned back on.  tic, tic, tic...

There's no way prices can increase in 2022 as much as they increased in 2021 but until I start seeing way more inventory and/or less buyer demand I just don't see prices going down next year.  Even if you decrease the demand due to slightly higher rate, homes will still get multiple offers until there is more inventory on the market and buyers don't feel the urgency to buy.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Predicting a 2.5% drop in home prices @ end 2022 is same as saying home prices will be flat in the coming year, and if you find something you like...

get it.

Flat years typically precipitate housing crashes.  The best case scenario would be a repeat of 1980-85 with five years of flat prices and 10% inflation eroding buyers' power.

I'll keep saying this....until inventory levels increase materially, home prices will keep going up.  Simple econ 101 supply/demand dynamics at work.

An oversupply of money means a shortage of real estate.  What happens when conditions reverse?

2.5% drop?!?

Seasonal?

Yes, I remember the three years of seasonal drops that Irvine sustained until QE was turned back on.  tic, tic, tic...

There's no way prices can increase in 2022 as much as they increased in 2021 but until I start seeing way more inventory and/or less buyer demand I just don't see prices going down next year.  Even if you decrease the demand due to slightly higher rate, homes will still get multiple offers until there is more inventory on the market and buyers don't feel the urgency to buy.

Liar Loans, let?s put some money where your mouth is? If Irvine 1st half next year drop more than 2.5% you win 1k. If not I win 1K. Nothing serious, just some fun. Payable via Venmo, what do you say?

You should have a higher probability of winning, since you?ve been calling for correction 2 years now. And the odds of higher rate is upon us. I handicap this to your favor Maybe 3 year is a charm.

 

[Irvinehomeseeker]

Predicting a 2.5% drop in home prices @ end 2022 is same as saying home prices will be flat in the coming year, and if you find something you like...

get it.

Flat years typically precipitate housing crashes.  The best case scenario would be a repeat of 1980-85 with five years of flat prices and 10% inflation eroding buyers' power.

I'll keep saying this....until inventory levels increase materially, home prices will keep going up.  Simple econ 101 supply/demand dynamics at work.

An oversupply of money means a shortage of real estate.  What happens when conditions reverse?

2.5% drop?!?

Seasonal?

Yes, I remember the three years of seasonal drops that Irvine sustained until QE was turned back on.  tic, tic, tic...

There's no way prices can increase in 2022 as much as they increased in 2021 but until I start seeing way more inventory and/or less buyer demand I just don't see prices going down next year.  Even if you decrease the demand due to slightly higher rate, homes will still get multiple offers until there is more inventory on the market and buyers don't feel the urgency to buy.

Interest rate for Jumbo Loans are still good.  Still able to get 2.625% at 0 points through big banks.

 

[fatduck]

i locked 2.375% for a jumbo purchase a few weeks ago.  VA loan though.  god bless america.

even if rates go up to low 3's that is still very cheap money historically.

 

[usctrojancpa]

i locked 2.375% for a jumbo purchase a few weeks ago.  VA loan though.  god bless america.

even if rates go up to low 3's that is still very cheap money historically.

Agreed, anything below 4% is basically free money.

 

[Mety]

There are only 4 homes on the market from EW, SG, and CV. Nothing at SG. This is the lowest inventory level I've seen in Irvine.

 

[aquabliss]

There are only 4 homes on the market from EW, SG, and CV. Nothing at SG. This is the lowest inventory level I've seen in Irvine.

I read that and was like "ya right" then I checked and ya... it is right.  Crazy times.

 

[daedalus]

A few weeks ago there were zero SFRs for sale in my city.  I haven't seen that before in over 20 years of tracking this market.  There are 2 right now for sale, one of which only so because it fell out of escrow.

 

[Cares]

There are only 4 homes on the market from EW, SG, and CV. Nothing at SG. This is the lowest inventory level I've seen in Irvine.

Keep in mind it is Thanksgiving and Christmas coming up. No one wants to pack and move during these times or many people are just out of town.

 

[Mety]

There are only 4 homes on the market from EW, SG, and CV. Nothing at SG. This is the lowest inventory level I've seen in Irvine.

Keep in mind it is Thanksgiving and Christmas coming up. No one wants to pack and move during these times or many people are just out of town.

That's true, but what about so many listings from GP and PS? I was just talking about real Irvine. >

 

[irvinebullhousing]

There are only 4 homes on the market from EW, SG, and CV. Nothing at SG. This is the lowest inventory level I've seen in Irvine.

Keep in mind it is Thanksgiving and Christmas coming up. No one wants to pack and move during these times or many people are just out of town.

That's true, but what about so many listings from GP and PS? I was just talking about real Irvine. >

That's fine with your opinion. As long as you don't tell me to put my hands on your Bibles and tell me about God's, its Ok with me.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Predicting a 2.5% drop in home prices @ end 2022 is same as saying home prices will be flat in the coming year, and if you find something you like...

get it.

Flat years typically precipitate housing crashes.  The best case scenario would be a repeat of 1980-85 with five years of flat prices and 10% inflation eroding buyers' power.

I'll keep saying this....until inventory levels increase materially, home prices will keep going up.  Simple econ 101 supply/demand dynamics at work.

An oversupply of money means a shortage of real estate.  What happens when conditions reverse?

2.5% drop?!?

Seasonal?

Yes, I remember the three years of seasonal drops that Irvine sustained until QE was turned back on.  tic, tic, tic...

There's no way prices can increase in 2022 as much as they increased in 2021 but until I start seeing way more inventory and/or less buyer demand I just don't see prices going down next year.  Even if you decrease the demand due to slightly higher rate, homes will still get multiple offers until there is more inventory on the market and buyers don't feel the urgency to buy.

Liar Loans, let?s put some money where your mouth is? If Irvine 1st half next year drop more than 2.5% you win 1k. If not I win 1K. Nothing serious, just some fun. Payable via Venmo, what do you say?

You should have a higher probability of winning, since you?ve been calling for correction 2 years now. And the odds of higher rate is upon us. I handicap this to your favor Maybe 3 year is a charm.

No? Nothing? Just as I thought, blowing hot air. The next time you say something, make sure you have some data to back up your arguments, or maybe even better, put some dough into it. Crickets.