Housing Analysis

[usctrojancpa]

I'll summarize what I see right now...we are cooling off a bit, more so in the higher end.  We are not going off a cliff and we are not melting down.  I've actually had 3 new buyers (referrals) contact me the past week to assist them in their home search.  I think the cool down can be a good thing where the market becomes more balances (aka less multiple offer situations). 

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I'll summarize what I see right now...we are cooling off a bit, more so in the higher end.  We are not going off a cliff and we are not melting down.  I've actually had 3 new buyers (referrals) contact me the past week to assist them in their home search.  I think the cool down can be a good thing where the market becomes more balances (aka less multiple offer situations).

Dang it, I need it to crash now   

 

[lnc]

Here's chart for seasonal pattern of housing price changes.  Notice higher peak during summer month and bottom during winter month.  Year to year price changes are more accurate measurement of housing price trend.

 

[Kings]

the new iphone is always announced early september and the housing market slows down at the same time

coincidence?  i think not!

 

[lnc]

The housing prices still up 6.2% nationally in June.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in June, down from 6.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, down from 6.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.5% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.8% increase and San Francisco with a 10.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2018 versus the year ending May 2018.

Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search?updated-max=2018-08-28T07:05:00-07:00&max-results=10#y2IhIIuxVPCIIvOv.99

 

[fortune11]

In all fairness to eyephone the local and coastal markets did pause  , a tad more than it did last year . Better deals to be had than last year

So technically he is justified in claiming a slowdown

The question is , is this symptomatic of a bigger trend like a real correction.

And this is where we all need to pay heed to usc s inventory data w religion .

I am of the opinion that a strong equity market and strong consumer confidence backdrop is inconsistent w a housing correction (not a pause ) . Rates are still very affordable . We may need more wage growth at this point before prices continue to rally from here. Perceived Permanency of wage gains is what may shift some of the buyers from the sidelines.

 

[sgip]

November election results and experiencing first hand the 2019 income tax changes should be considered as well. Both events are under 6 months away and - as believed by some - will have considerable influence on economic expectations.

These market turns (my 4th so far over the past 30 years) always have doom and gloom armchair analysts competing with sunshine, roses, and unicorn rah rah'ers from those in the industry. The best suggestion is to prepare for both a best and worst case scenario. It can be done. Then watch how things unfold with confidence.

My .02c

 

[meccos12]

What does your Warren Buffet post have to do with anything?

I just posted after you said "Like I mentioned... I'm so smart... I'm the king of predictions... I'm so awesome" (well... I embellished).

Man, you and BTB have this thing with being "attacked"... this is a forum, we discuss our opinions and positions and from my viewpoint, I have no idea what your position is because it's so general and you have no detail to back it up.

The sun makes light.

Its clear you have an opinion and its clearly different from eyephones.  Its also clear your posts are trying very hard to undermine everything eyephone says.  I think eyephone's message is rather clear, perhaps you are one of the few who do not get what he is saying. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

What does your Warren Buffet post have to do with anything?

I just posted after you said "Like I mentioned... I'm so smart... I'm the king of predictions... I'm so awesome" (well... I embellished).

Man, you and BTB have this thing with being "attacked"... this is a forum, we discuss our opinions and positions and from my viewpoint, I have no idea what your position is because it's so general and you have no detail to back it up.

The sun makes light.

Its clear you have an opinion and its clearly different from eyephones.  Its also clear your posts are trying very hard to undermine everything eyephone says.  I think eyephone's message is rather clear, perhaps you are one of the few who do not get what he is saying.

Actually I don?t know if my opinion is different from his because I?m not exactly sure what his is.

Does slowdown mean we are going back to lows for several years or is it just seasonal?

He?s not giving us any detail behind his posts other than articles from the Internet. Look at what other members like Liar, USC, fortune and CV post, they value add.

 

[Navigatn]

How do you guys feel about new construction?  Do you think builders may restructure their pricing on new phases now that sales are slowing and interest rates rising? 

 

[bones]

How do you guys feel about new construction?  Do you think builders may restructure their pricing on new phases now that sales are slowing and interest rates rising? 

It'll be hard to change pricing on any new home developments that have already sold phases since builders will have existing homeowners to answer to.  They may instead stop increasing pricing between phases, add in mortgage incentives, design credits, nationwide sales events (freebies), etc to get sales moving.  You can also make offers on standing (or close to standing) inventory without them laughing you out the room like they've done the last few years.

 

[Kenkoko]

Bones is right on new constructions. You can definitely get a better price on standing inventory.

My uncle just closed on a move-in ready Palencia home in Travata. Travata is not selling well. He was able to negotiate the price down by almost 50k.

 

[eyephone]

Bones is right on new constructions. You can definitely get a better price on standing inventory.

My uncle just closed on a move-in ready Palencia home in Travata. Travata is not selling well. He was able to negotiate the price down by almost 50k.

Wow. 5 stars negotiator (nice)

 

[irvinehomeowner]

In all fairness to eyephone the local and coastal markets did pause  , a tad more than it did last year . Better deals to be had than last year

So technically he is justified in claiming a slowdown

The question is , is this symptomatic of a bigger trend like a real correction.

And this is where we all need to pay heed to usc s inventory data w religion .

I am of the opinion that a strong equity market and strong consumer confidence backdrop is inconsistent w a housing correction (not a pause ) . Rates are still very affordable . We may need more wage growth at this point before prices continue to rally from here. Perceived Permanency of wage gains is what may shift some of the buyers from the sidelines.

So are you saying that there are homes you could buy now that were cheaper than a year ago? Is that a blanket statement or just one offs?

 

[Kenkoko]

Wow. 5 stars negotiator (nice)

I was surprised as well. I think the biggest reason for the price concession was the previous buyer picked all the options and backed out. I think the builder kept a big chunk or all of his/her deposit.

 

[meccos12]

Latest from ReportsOnHousing from Steve Thomas.

1.  OC inventory up 2% in last two weeks at 7001
2.  Inventory up 1139 homes compared to this time last year
3.  demand down 2% over last two weeks at 2350 compared to 2825 this time last year


Gist of the newletter:  No longer a sellers market.  Went quickly from a hot sellers market to neutral market.  Price well or dont expect to sell.

The million dollar question everyone wants to know is, does the market continue to slow or does it level off? 

My personal opinion is that the pace at which this market cooled off is surprising.  Without doubt everyone has taken notice of this trend and thus will influence behaviors further.

 

[meccos12]

Wow. 5 stars negotiator (nice)

I was surprised as well. I think the biggest reason for the price concession was the previous buyer picked all the options and backed out. I think the builder kept a big chunk or all of his/her deposit.

maybe also because builder inventory is super high right now.
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/08/...entory-at-12-year-high-1022-unsold-new-homes/

 

[fortune11]

In all fairness to eyephone the local and coastal markets did pause  , a tad more than it did last year . Better deals to be had than last year

So technically he is justified in claiming a slowdown

The question is , is this symptomatic of a bigger trend like a real correction.

And this is where we all need to pay heed to usc s inventory data w religion .

I am of the opinion that a strong equity market and strong consumer confidence backdrop is inconsistent w a housing correction (not a pause ) . Rates are still very affordable . We may need more wage growth at this point before prices continue to rally from here. Perceived Permanency of wage gains is what may shift some of the buyers from the sidelines.

So are you saying that there are homes you could buy now that were cheaper than a year ago? Is that a blanket statement or just one offs?

I am specifically talking about the coastal markets , so it is not a blanket statement for the entire country

Broad averages never give you a good indication of what?s happening beneath the surface . It is very similar to how you look at sp500 versus market breadth .

ANd yes , there is some anecdotal evidence thrown in there as well . There are buyers who are getting better discounts off list (doesn?t mean list price was fair to begin w), many more buyers on sidelines now (the people I talk to at chase and citi) .  Volumes are down not just from lower inventory but also from lower demand

But nothing that price or continued wage and Job growth cant fix . This is why I am still constructive on the market over the 1 year horizon , if not the very near term 

 

[eyephone]

In all fairness to eyephone the local and coastal markets did pause  , a tad more than it did last year . Better deals to be had than last year

So technically he is justified in claiming a slowdown

The question is , is this symptomatic of a bigger trend like a real correction.

And this is where we all need to pay heed to usc s inventory data w religion .

I am of the opinion that a strong equity market and strong consumer confidence backdrop is inconsistent w a housing correction (not a pause ) . Rates are still very affordable . We may need more wage growth at this point before prices continue to rally from here. Perceived Permanency of wage gains is what may shift some of the buyers from the sidelines.

So are you saying that there are homes you could buy now that were cheaper than a year ago? Is that a blanket statement or just one offs?

I am specifically talking about the coastal markets , so it is not a blanket statement for the entire country

Broad averages never give you a good indication of what?s happening beneath the surface . It is very similar to how you look at sp500 versus market breadth .

ANd yes , there is some anecdotal evidence thrown in there as well . There are buyers who are getting better discounts off list (doesn?t mean list price was fair to begin w), many more buyers on sidelines now (the people I talk to at chase and citi) .  Volumes are down not just from lower inventory but also from lower demand

But nothing that price or continued wage and Job growth cant fix . This is why I am still constructive on the market over the 1 year horizon , if not the very near term

Only coastal markets? It?s happening in the Southern states also. I?ve seen price reductions on new construction homes and resell homes.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So since this is an Irvine-centric forum, are there a number of homes in Irvine that are cheaper today than last year?

Redfin links?