Housing Analysis

[Mety]

This is not based on accurate datas IHO demands, but I think usually it goes like this in Irvine:

• Step1 1st-2nd year: First time buyer in an attached condo.
• Step2 2nd-5th year: Now had enough with attached living, time for a detached condo.
• Step3 5th-7th year: Family grew and now time for a house with a yard or patio for newer built.
• Step4 7th-10th year: We need 3000sq-ft. house in PS9 or OH8.
• Step5 10th-20th year: What's Irvine? Time for Laguna Hills/Beach/Woods/Niguel.
• Step6 20th-30th year: Just don't end up at Travata.
• Step7 30th-50th year: Still not dead from TCE toxic plume?

As always #fepo

 

[eyephone]

This is not based on accurate datas IHO demands, but I think usually it goes like this in Irvine:

• Step1 1st-2nd year: First time buyer in an attached condo.
• Step2 2nd-5th year: Now had enough with attached living, time for a detached condo.
• Step3 5th-7th year: Family grew and now time for a house with a yard or patio for newer built.
• Step4 7th-10th year: We need 3000sq-ft. house in PS9 or OH8.
• Step5 10th-20th year: What's Irvine? Time for Laguna Hills/Beach/Woods/Niguel.
• Step6 20th-30th year: Just don't end up at Travata.
• Step7 30th-50th year: Still not dead from TCE toxic plume?

As always #fepo

Nicely done

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This is not based on accurate datas IHO demands, but I think usually it goes like this in Irvine:

• Step1 1st-2nd year: First time buyer in an attached condo.
• Step2 2nd-5th year: Now had enough with attached living, time for a detached condo.
• Step3 5th-7th year: Family grew and now time for a house with a yard or patio for newer built.
• Step4 7th-10th year: We need 3000sq-ft. house in PS9 or OH8.
• Step5 10th-20th year: What's Irvine? Time for Laguna Hills/Beach/Woods/Niguel.
• Step6 20th-30th year: Just don't end up at Travata.
• Step7 30th-50th year: Still not dead from TCE toxic plume?

As always #fepo

Waiting for kenkoko to chime in about transaction costs for this plan

 

[Mety]

This is not based on accurate datas IHO demands, but I think usually it goes like this in Irvine:

• Step1 1st-2nd year: First time buyer in an attached condo.
• Step2 2nd-5th year: Now had enough with attached living, time for a detached condo.
• Step3 5th-7th year: Family grew and now time for a house with a yard or patio for newer built.
• Step4 7th-10th year: We need 3000sq-ft. house in PS9 or OH8.
• Step5 10th-20th year: What's Irvine? Time for Laguna Hills/Beach/Woods/Niguel.
• Step6 20th-30th year: Just don't end up at Travata.
• Step7 30th-50th year: Still not dead from TCE toxic plume?

As always #fepo

Waiting for kenkoko to chime in about transaction costs for this plan

Speaking of transaction cost, you guys know this website?https://www.openlistings.com/

They are like Redfin, but they give 50% commission refund if you buy with them. I haven't tried them yet, but I might next time since that would cover most of the closing costs.

 

[sgip]

I have a transaction with an OL Agent and buyer closing shortly. Sharp agent and heavily involved transaction coordinator.

OL merged with Open Door recently so changes are coming. I'd look at Open Door to see where Open Listings is headed. Every "real estate disruptor" is going to be challenged as this market turns. We'll see who survives. Redfin has public money down behind them, but what Wall Street giveth, Wall Street may taketh away. OD is venture capital driven at present and we'll see if they have the legs to get through the slowdown as well.

My .02c

SGIP

 

[irvinebullhousing]

This is not based on accurate datas IHO demands, but I think usually it goes like this in Irvine:

• Step1 1st-2nd year: First time buyer in an attached condo.
• Step2 2nd-5th year: Now had enough with attached living, time for a detached condo.
• Step3 5th-7th year: Family grew and now time for a house with a yard or patio for newer built.
• Step4 7th-10th year: We need 3000sq-ft. house in PS9 or OH8.
• Step5 10th-20th year: What's Irvine? Time for Laguna Hills/Beach/Woods/Niguel.
• Step6 20th-30th year: Just don't end up at Travata.
• Step7 30th-50th year: Still not dead from TCE toxic plume?

As always #fepo

Waiting for kenkoko to chime in about transaction costs for this plan

Speaking of transaction cost, you guys know this website?https://www.openlistings.com/

They are like Redfin, but they give 50% commission refund if you buy with them. I haven't tried them yet, but I might next time since that would cover most of the closing costs.

If the length of the stay is as described by Mety, why not just roll the cost into the loan and not having to worry about transaction costs up front. However, from my personal experience, plans always get extended. It is harder to move when rate gets higher. Prices are sticky as well. Wait for a drop in Irvine, you will have to wait and wait and wait. May not happen.

Or I should rephrase, wait for the right ones that you want, may not happen as others are eyeing it as well.

 

[meccos12]

Prices are sticky as well. Wait for a drop in Irvine, you will have to wait and wait and wait. May not happen.

Since we keep talking about prices I think its time that we should discuss inflation adjusted prices or nominal prices.  If we want to talk about prices dropping or rising, it should be spoken about in terms of inflation adjusted prices.  Why?  Because the price of everything is expected to increase with time due to inflation.  I could hold onto money in an ally account and make 2.5% a year without doing anything.  Purchasing power decreases every year by about that amount due to inflation.  Thus if a price on a house increases 2.5% a year to me, prices have not changed at all.  If prices on a house stays the same, then the house has actually gotten cheaper. 

Or I should rephrase, wait for the right ones that you want, may not happen as others are eyeing it as well.

Yes you are right, it may not happen.  However recent housing numbers suggest that inventory is increasing suggesting the chances of you finding the ones you want will be higher, and demand/sales are dropping suggesting the number of others eyeing it are lower. 

 

[eyephone]

It is happening. Mety recently posted a house that sold for around $100k less than the original price asking.

 

[lnc]

Since we keep talking about prices I think its time that we should discuss inflation adjusted prices or nominal prices.  If we want to talk about prices dropping or rising, it should be spoken about in terms of inflation adjusted prices.  Why?  Because the price of everything is expected to increase with time due to inflation.  I could hold onto money in an ally account and make 2.5% a year without doing anything.  Purchasing power decreases every year by about that amount due to inflation.  Thus if a price on a house increases 2.5% a year to me, prices have not changed at all.  If prices on a house stays the same, then the house has actually gotten cheaper. 

You bring up a good point about inflation adjusted prices.

Right before the last housing bubble burst, most new builds here in Irvine were asking around $400/s.f.  And now we adjusted for inflation, that's about $500/s.f. in today money.  So the real home price after adjusted for inflation are only about the same as the peak prices during the last bubble.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It is happening. Mety recently posted a house that sold for around $100k less than the original price asking.

Such compelling evidence!!!

 

[eyephone]

It is happening. Mety recently posted a house that sold for around $100k less than the original price asking.

Such compelling evidence!!!

ty

 

[irvinebullhousing]

There is still foreclosure and short sales happening in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, these are hottest years in real estate markets. Price dropped for these distressed homes are normal when the less desired floor plans and locations must be unload. Not surprise me at all.

Only when you see large amount of nice homes in great neighborhood then it would yield concern. Homes largely in SoCal particularly OC is different this time in the next recessions. We got too much well prepared owners to withstand the next down turn. Ownership is now 60 years + low compare to renting. Many are not qualify with the current environments of lending, which is a good practice.

 

[eyephone]

There is still foreclosure and short sales happening in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, these are hottest years in real estate markets. Price dropped for these distressed homes are normal when the less desired floor plans and locations must be unload. Not surprise me at all.

Only when you see large amount of nice homes in great neighborhood then it would yield concern. Homes largely in SoCal particularly OC is different this time in the next recessions. We got too much well prepared owners to withstand the next down turn. Ownership is now 60 years + low compare to renting. Many are not qualify with the current environments of lending, which is a good practice.

The house that Mety brought up was not a foreclosure. The price is based on how much a person is willing to pay. Irvine or OC are not isolated to this crisis. It?s happening in Zero income state taxes also.

 

[fortune11]

There is still foreclosure and short sales happening in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, these are hottest years in real estate markets. Price dropped for these distressed homes are normal when the less desired floor plans and locations must be unload. Not surprise me at all.

Only when you see large amount of nice homes in great neighborhood then it would yield concern. Homes largely in SoCal particularly OC is different this time in the next recessions. We got too much well prepared owners to withstand the next down turn. Ownership is now 60 years + low compare to renting. Many are not qualify with the current environments of lending, which is a good practice.

Interesting . This brings up the bias of ?base rate neglect ?

Before believing anecdotes , let?s think about what typically happens?

Yes sears defaulted ? But you know what ? a significant  percentage of companjes like sears go bankrupt every year , that?s just the way it is .

Same thing in our personal lives and importantly , housing .

There will be forclosures and price cuts every year . It is when they start to affect aggregate numbers and moving averages  , you have to worry .

But you say , by the time it affects moving averages , it is too late !  Good point

If there is support , markets will bounce off moving averages like s&p did recently . But if you are catching a falling knife then you will dip below 200dma and stay there. This is NOT happening in housing. 

 

[eyephone]

Also, a TI member mentioned that their family member got $50k credit when they bought a new home.

Is it just me or are there many quick move ins? (New construction)

 

[irvinebullhousing]

.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

There is still foreclosure and short sales happening in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, these are hottest years in real estate markets. Price dropped for these distressed homes are normal when the less desired floor plans and locations must be unload. Not surprise me at all.

Only when you see large amount of nice homes in great neighborhood then it would yield concern. Homes largely in SoCal particularly OC is different this time in the next recessions. We got too much well prepared owners to withstand the next down turn. Ownership is now 60 years + low compare to renting. Many are not qualify with the current environments of lending, which is a good practice.

Interesting . This brings up the bias of ?base rate neglect ?

Before believing anecdotes , let?s think about what typically happens?

Yes sears defaulted ? But you know what ? a significant  percentage of companjes like sears go bankrupt every year , that?s just the way it is .

Same thing in our personal lives and importantly , housing .

There will be forclosures and price cuts every year . It is when they start to affect aggregate numbers and moving averages  , you have to worry .

But you say , by the time it affects moving averages , it is too late !  Good point

If there is support , markets will bounce off moving averages like s&p did recently . But if you are catching a falling knife then you will dip below 200dma and stay there. This is NOT happening in housing.
[/quote


Agree with you analysis and a well written thoughts for the technical buffs and your average readers. That's is my points, as well. There is enough evidence to support a non-melt down for the overall housing. Sure, you will always find onesie and twosie of a discount in a non matter neighborhood but that not your overall telling of the housing. If one can afford a place and love the neighborhood, waiting maybe your biggest mistake yet, because as we all know, rates only get higher and how long it will stay higher is anyone guess. And if I can buy now and have a good plan for owning it, this noise of slowing down IS my best friend.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

And here another case in point for waiting. The time line keeps moving forward. If you can buy now and decided to wait, can you wait 3 or 5 more years before you take the the plunge?

https://www.etftrends.com/portfolio-construction-channel/housing-has-the-recession-3-years-off/?utm_source=Yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ReadMore

 

[daedalus]

And here another case in point for waiting. The time line keeps moving forward. If you can buy now and decided to wait, can you wait 3 or 5 more years before you take the the plunge?

https://www.etftrends.com/portfolio-construction-channel/housing-has-the-recession-3-years-off/?utm_source=Yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ReadMore

That "analysis" is weaker than Saudi Arabia's murder defense.  Like reading tea leaves. 

"Last night I drank 1 too many jalapeno popper tequilas and shit the bed.  The last time that happened, a recession occurred 3 years later.  Looks like we'll be in trouble in 2021!"

 

[eyephone]

And here another case in point for waiting. The time line keeps moving forward. If you can buy now and decided to wait, can you wait 3 or 5 more years before you take the the plunge?

https://www.etftrends.com/portfolio-construction-channel/housing-has-the-recession-3-years-off/?utm_source=Yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ReadMore

That "analysis" is weaker than Saudi Arabia's murder defense.  Like reading tea leaves. 

Fist fight? Rofl