Housing Analysis

[irvinebullhousing]

Let?s face it, there are a lot of people in which the house is their retirement. They don?t have any other investments/assets. Believe it or not it?s true. They don?t have time to wait or something.

Valid point. So this proven that it won't game like the equity market and there is other mean to use it in case of emergency. Your house can be your safe harbor as well when you use it correctly.

The days of taking out equity to buy a fancy car and take luxurious vacation is so in the nineteen nineties.,,,,ie 199X.....People are a lot more conscious with silly spending using the house for collateral. You not going to get the collateral damage like you saw. And Banks are not there yet to given out stupid loans. I say, yet..,,,,for Bankings.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The dow has a factor too. There are people that use their 4oh1 for down payment to buy a house.

I said that already. You even quoted me saying it (again).

But as I said, no one mentioned that until that started happening... so that's revisionist history.

 

[eyephone]

The dow has a factor too. There are people that use their 4oh1 for down payment to buy a house.

I said that already. You even quoted me saying it (again).

But as I said, no one mentioned that until that started happening... so that's revisionist history.

Ok we agree.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

For IHO's seasonal argument, it is not the same since the market' moving flow is different from last year's. If you compare this year's seasonal affect to the last years', there's a quite a bit of significant differences in terms of volume of the sales and the inventories. It's been the slowest in the last 6 years.

So is this just a seasonal thing coming from Sept-Oct-ish time? I don't think so. Is this a falling knife phase already? That we shall see.

So this is what I like to see.

Can you link me to an article where it says it's the slowest in the last 6 years?

I think that's natural for the last 6 years to be faster because of the price run up... so a correction is bound to happen.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Let?s face it, there are a lot of people in which the house is their retirement. They don?t have any other investments/assets. Believe it or not it?s true. They don?t have time to wait or something.

So are you saying that this would be another reason not to wait?

Even if prices were significantly lower, for some, a stock crash will take out their assets and there goes your down.

 

[eyephone]

Let?s face it, there are a lot of people in which the house is their retirement. They don?t have any other investments/assets. Believe it or not it?s true. They don?t have time to wait or something.

So are you saying that this would be another reason not to wait?

Even if prices were significantly lower, for some, a stock crash will take out their assets and there goes your down.

I?m just saying that is why people might need to sell. (Close to retire. Retirement, or simply cash out and buy again later)

 

[meccos12]

@IHO.  Dude, this is NOT seasonal.  Geez just accept it and get over it.   

 

[irvinebullhousing]

In case anyone a SCHOCKS, this will be the new normal. Get use to higher borrowing cost and slow/low appreciation for next several years. Rent will stay high and flat, with little risks for dropping when renewal term. Unless move to flyover country.

 

[Mety]

For IHO's seasonal argument, it is not the same since the market' moving flow is different from last year's. If you compare this year's seasonal affect to the last years', there's a quite a bit of significant differences in terms of volume of the sales and the inventories. It's been the slowest in the last 6 years.

So is this just a seasonal thing coming from Sept-Oct-ish time? I don't think so. Is this a falling knife phase already? That we shall see.

So this is what I like to see.

Can you link me to an article where it says it's the slowest in the last 6 years?

I think that's natural for the last 6 years to be faster because of the price run up... so a correction is bound to happen.

How can you believe articles that's most likely based on biased opinions?
I suggest do you own study and research. There are many articles out there if you google that it's been the slowest in 6 or 7 years and whatnot, but I think it's important to do your own research. And based on my own research, here are what I'm seeing:

1. The prices going up season has stopped. It's either declining or staying based on homes being sold.

2. Homes are being sold less or slower. It's not seasonal because the hottest season which is June-August has not been so hot in 2018.

3. Even some of the new construction homes are pricing less and less each phase (not so extreme though).

4. Much more advertisings on new homes with move-in-ready lots.

5. Much more advertisings on mortgage loans from unheard banks/corps.

Remember, I'm not predicting anything. Just showing the results and facts from my own research.
Now, you ready for another release from Delano yet?

 

[eyephone]

For IHO's seasonal argument, it is not the same since the market' moving flow is different from last year's. If you compare this year's seasonal affect to the last years', there's a quite a bit of significant differences in terms of volume of the sales and the inventories. It's been the slowest in the last 6 years.

So is this just a seasonal thing coming from Sept-Oct-ish time? I don't think so. Is this a falling knife phase already? That we shall see.

So this is what I like to see.

Can you link me to an article where it says it's the slowest in the last 6 years?

I think that's natural for the last 6 years to be faster because of the price run up... so a correction is bound to happen.

How can you believe articles that's most likely based on biased opinions?
I suggest do you own study and research. There are many articles out there if you google that it's been the slowest in 6 or 7 years and whatnot, but I think it's important to do your own research. And based on my own research, here are what I'm seeing:

1. The prices going up season has stopped. It's either declining or staying based on homes being sold.

2. Homes are being sold less or slower. It's not seasonal because the hottest season which is June-August has not been so hot in 2018.

3. Even some of the new construction homes are pricing less and less each phase (not so extreme though).

4. Much more advertisings on new homes with move-in-ready lots.

5. Much more advertisings on mortgage loans from unheard banks/corps.

Remember, I'm not predicting anything. Just showing the results and facts from my own research.
Now, you ready for another release from Delano yet?

Your killing me Larry. 

 

[irvinebullhousing]

For IHO's seasonal argument, it is not the same since the market' moving flow is different from last year's. If you compare this year's seasonal affect to the last years', there's a quite a bit of significant differences in terms of volume of the sales and the inventories. It's been the slowest in the last 6 years.

So is this just a seasonal thing coming from Sept-Oct-ish time? I don't think so. Is this a falling knife phase already? That we shall see.

So this is what I like to see.

Can you link me to an article where it says it's the slowest in the last 6 years?

I think that's natural for the last 6 years to be faster because of the price run up... so a correction is bound to happen.

How can you believe articles that's most likely based on biased opinions?
I suggest do you own study and research. There are many articles out there if you google that it's been the slowest in 6 or 7 years and whatnot, but I think it's important to do your own research. And based on my own research, here are what I'm seeing:

1. The prices going up season has stopped. It's either declining or staying based on homes being sold.

2. Homes are being sold less or slower. It's not seasonal because the hottest season which is June-August has not been so hot in 2018.

3. Even some of the new construction homes are pricing less and less each phase (not so extreme though).

4. Much more advertisings on new homes with move-in-ready lots.

5. Much more advertisings on mortgage loans from unheard banks/corps.

Remember, I'm not predicting anything. Just showing the results and facts from my own research.
Now, you ready for another release from Delano yet?

Give us the release from Delano, price gone up?

 

[Mety]

For IHO's seasonal argument, it is not the same since the market' moving flow is different from last year's. If you compare this year's seasonal affect to the last years', there's a quite a bit of significant differences in terms of volume of the sales and the inventories. It's been the slowest in the last 6 years.

So is this just a seasonal thing coming from Sept-Oct-ish time? I don't think so. Is this a falling knife phase already? That we shall see.

So this is what I like to see.

Can you link me to an article where it says it's the slowest in the last 6 years?

I think that's natural for the last 6 years to be faster because of the price run up... so a correction is bound to happen.

How can you believe articles that's most likely based on biased opinions?
I suggest do you own study and research. There are many articles out there if you google that it's been the slowest in 6 or 7 years and whatnot, but I think it's important to do your own research. And based on my own research, here are what I'm seeing:

1. The prices going up season has stopped. It's either declining or staying based on homes being sold.

2. Homes are being sold less or slower. It's not seasonal because the hottest season which is June-August has not been so hot in 2018.

3. Even some of the new construction homes are pricing less and less each phase (not so extreme though).

4. Much more advertisings on new homes with move-in-ready lots.

5. Much more advertisings on mortgage loans from unheard banks/corps.

Remember, I'm not predicting anything. Just showing the results and facts from my own research.
Now, you ready for another release from Delano yet?

Your killing me Larry. 

Call Delano now and your mattress is FREE!!! **



**Not a true statement. As always, for entertainment purposes only. Although the model home might come with the mattress.

 

[eyephone]

For IHO's seasonal argument, it is not the same since the market' moving flow is different from last year's. If you compare this year's seasonal affect to the last years', there's a quite a bit of significant differences in terms of volume of the sales and the inventories. It's been the slowest in the last 6 years.

So is this just a seasonal thing coming from Sept-Oct-ish time? I don't think so. Is this a falling knife phase already? That we shall see.

So this is what I like to see.

Can you link me to an article where it says it's the slowest in the last 6 years?

I think that's natural for the last 6 years to be faster because of the price run up... so a correction is bound to happen.

How can you believe articles that's most likely based on biased opinions?
I suggest do you own study and research. There are many articles out there if you google that it's been the slowest in 6 or 7 years and whatnot, but I think it's important to do your own research. And based on my own research, here are what I'm seeing:

1. The prices going up season has stopped. It's either declining or staying based on homes being sold.

2. Homes are being sold less or slower. It's not seasonal because the hottest season which is June-August has not been so hot in 2018.

3. Even some of the new construction homes are pricing less and less each phase (not so extreme though).

4. Much more advertisings on new homes with move-in-ready lots.

5. Much more advertisings on mortgage loans from unheard banks/corps.

Remember, I'm not predicting anything. Just showing the results and facts from my own research.
Now, you ready for another release from Delano yet?

Your killing me Larry. 

Call Delano now and your mattress is FREE!!! **



**Not a true statement. As always, for entertainment purposes only. Although the model home might come with the mattress.

That?s too funny. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@IHO.  Dude, this is NOT seasonal.  Geez just accept it and get over it.   

We can't know until the next selling season. At least I can't.

Based on Mety's response, it looks like he is going off the same thing I am... anecdotal observations of the market.

This is how I see it:

1. The prices going up season has stopped. It's either declining or staying based on homes being sold.

Doesn't this usually happen during this time of year?

2. Homes are being sold less or slower. It's not seasonal because the hottest season which is June-August has not been so hot in 2018.

However, all the year over year graphs show the same trends... volume and pricing going up during this time and then dropping off August to the December.

3. Even some of the new construction homes are pricing less and less each phase (not so extreme though).

Again... this happens during this time.

4. Much more advertisings on new homes with move-in-ready lots.

Again, I've seen this usually during this time of year.

5. Much more advertisings on mortgage loans from unheard banks/corps.

This I notice also... not sure if it's a herald of real estate slowing down or more like rates rising.

Remember, I'm not predicting anything. Just showing the results and facts from my own research.

I understand. And again, maybe I'm on the more optimistic side because when the other crashes to occurred, there had to be another event as an accelerant. Up until a few days ago... the triggers cited were trade/tariffs, Trump taxes and possible rising rates... all of which their effects were situational depending on the type of product and buyer.

Now.... if the Dow continues to fall... that could be it... but no one was claiming that as a reason.

If the stock market takes a dive and that does indeed cause a sustained slowdown of real estate... everyone is going to say "See... told you IHO!" but then shouldn't have the more appropriate warning been "re-organize your portfolio" rather than "wait for housing prices to drop"?

Like back when Larry was telling everyone that the Irvine Real Estate bubble was going to pop... a better book would have been "The Great Stock Market Bubble".

Now, you ready for another release from Delano yet?

Sure... did prices go up or down?

 

[Mety]

For IHO's seasonal argument, it is not the same since the market' moving flow is different from last year's. If you compare this year's seasonal affect to the last years', there's a quite a bit of significant differences in terms of volume of the sales and the inventories. It's been the slowest in the last 6 years.

So is this just a seasonal thing coming from Sept-Oct-ish time? I don't think so. Is this a falling knife phase already? That we shall see.

So this is what I like to see.

Can you link me to an article where it says it's the slowest in the last 6 years?

I think that's natural for the last 6 years to be faster because of the price run up... so a correction is bound to happen.

How can you believe articles that's most likely based on biased opinions?
I suggest do you own study and research. There are many articles out there if you google that it's been the slowest in 6 or 7 years and whatnot, but I think it's important to do your own research. And based on my own research, here are what I'm seeing:

1. The prices going up season has stopped. It's either declining or staying based on homes being sold.

2. Homes are being sold less or slower. It's not seasonal because the hottest season which is June-August has not been so hot in 2018.

3. Even some of the new construction homes are pricing less and less each phase (not so extreme though).

4. Much more advertisings on new homes with move-in-ready lots.

5. Much more advertisings on mortgage loans from unheard banks/corps.

Remember, I'm not predicting anything. Just showing the results and facts from my own research.
Now, you ready for another release from Delano yet?

Give us the release from Delano, price gone up?

As you wish,

Phases 18
Plan1 - $788k-$790k
Plan2 - $953k-$963k
Plan3 - $999k-$1.015m

The plan1 went up a little bit, but the plan2 and 3 went down (first down since the grand opening).

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Delano still way overpriced.

C'mon... Eastwood is not even close to the beach or elevated.

 

[Mety]

2. Homes are being sold less or slower. It's not seasonal because the hottest season which is June-August has not been so hot in 2018.

However, all the year over year graphs show the same trends... volume and pricing going up during this time and then dropping off August to the December.

Yes, but I wrote, June-August was not hot. Which means it was not selling well in the hottest selling season of the year.

 

[Mety]

Delano still way overpriced.

C'mon... Eastwood is not even close to the beach or elevated.

Overprice is subjective. I think it's overpriced as well. But to many buyers of that specific village, they see it a better investment than the ones near the beach or higher elevated. Just stating facts here.

 

[Kenkoko]

I don't think anyone has brought up Prop 5.
This is obviously backed by greedy California Realtor Association
I think if it does pass, it will boost transaction volume and can affect housing prices.
https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_5,_Property_Tax_Transfer_Initiative_(2018)

 

[Mety]

I think someone already posted a similar image, but here they go. Both kinda the same.

Where you at?