Housing about to Blowup

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Playing at Whitney High?  How often do they play there and how much?  I am in Cerritos every week.  My friend always wants to play, but he nor I know the inside scoop about where to play pick up games.  I also just play defense and "hustle".
 
The plot thickens...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100812552

RealtyTrac: Home Repossessions Rose in May

Lenders stepped up action last month against homeowners who had fallen behind on their mortgage payments, taking possession of more homes and initiating the foreclosure countdown clock on many others.

Completed foreclosures jumped 11 percent nationally in May from the previous month, with monthly increases taking place in 33 states, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

 
Anything more local than National?  I don't want to pretend this area is immune but it is a bit different.
Any ideas?
 
The dance begins...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pending-home-sales-pull-back-140335042.html

Pending home sales pull back in June as rates rise

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes fell in June, retreating from a more than six-year high and suggesting rising mortgage rates were starting to dampen home sales.

The National Association of Realtors said on Monday its Pending Homes Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, decreased 0.4 percent to 110.9. May's index was revised down to 111.3, the highest since December 2006, from a previously reported 112.3.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected signed contracts, which become sales after a month or two, to fall 1.0 percent.

"This latest move down in pending home sales may reflect some weakening in activity related to the recent increase in mortgage rates as well as limited available inventory for sale," Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York, said in a research note.
 
I read a Lasner article about this June "Sales" Gloom and stat-wise, it's a non-indicator.

So is someone calling a bubble peak here? Because I have a feeling were are going to see a lot of homes sell in the Great Park, pent-up demand is just too high... still.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I read a Lasner article about this June "Sales" Gloom and stat-wise, it's a non-indicator.

So is someone calling a bubble peak here? Because I have a feeling were are going to see a lot of homes sell in the Great Park, pent-up demand is just too high... still.
Click to expand...

I drove past the area yesterday and quite amazed at the progress...looks like a summer 2014 open.  I hope they have good food :)

I made the prediction before that I think home values in Irvine will remain flat but that new homes may be hard to sell at current levels.  I really think that FCB will balk at buying into the Great Park.
 
Lennar has had terrible timing.  Bought the GP land right at the peak.  Ramped up CPW at the start of the crash and had to mothball the project.  Halted sales at VoC in the middle of the crash.  Will GPN be a repeat?
 
I am betting the house price will drop  ;D

It is just supply and demand.  Price is too high in Irvine and demand should go down because people can't afford it.
Supply is going up because old house are trying to cash out and there are just ALOT of new home.
 
yaliu07 said:
I am betting the house price will drop  ;D

It is just supply and demand.  Price is too high in Irvine and demand should go down because people can't afford it.
Supply is going up because old house are trying to cash out and there are just ALOT of new home.
Click to expand...

Drop by how much? You know, Irvine is on the #1 list for mainland Chinese immigrating to southern California. The demand is still growing for this group of buyers.

I am betting prices will stay where it is now or drop just a bit because of the GP homes.
 
Inventory is still low.  I'm guessing prices will still go up, albeit at a slower rate.  There will still be a premium for good lots with good floor plans, although I admit there's currently not a lot of those.  Fingers crossed for TIC and other builders to come up with refreshing floor plans for new developments instead of the money grab with more motor court homes.  Wishful thinking?  Maybe, but hopeful.
 
yaliu07 said:
I am betting the house price will drop  ;D

It is just supply and demand.  Price is too high in Irvine and demand should go down because people can't afford it.
Supply is going up because old house are trying to cash out and there are just ALOT of new home.
Click to expand...

Supply and demand exists but with real estate...there are pockets.  Average listing for VoC and Tustin Fields went from about $270 a square foot in late 2011 to $347 recently.  Woodbury area (92620) had a low of around $300 to near $400 at this point. 

Average downpayment for the VoC/Tustin Fields area is about 23% while Woodbury is 31.8.  (all according to Redfin.)

Stonegate/Cypress Village/Woodbury are getting the bulk of the FCB money.  I don't think Portola Spring is doing nearly as well as those three.
 
Cypress Village is doing better than Portola Springs???  I am surprised. 
Where is USC?  any data from you to support CV is better than PS? 

Irvinecommuter said:
Stonegate/Cypress Village/Woodbury are getting the bulk of the FCB money.  I don't think Portola Spring is doing nearly as well as those three.
Click to expand...
 
gld2 said:
Cypress Village is doing better than Portola Springs???  I am surprised. 
Where is USC?  any data from you to support CV is better than PS? 

Irvinecommuter said:
Stonegate/Cypress Village/Woodbury are getting the bulk of the FCB money.  I don't think Portola Spring is doing nearly as well as those three.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Just looking at Redfin data...PS fell to as low as $265 per sq/ft at the end of 2011 and peaked at $380 earlier this year...it actually has fallen since June...down to about $369 a square foot. 
 
jamboreedude said:
yaliu07 said:
I am betting the house price will drop  ;D

It is just supply and demand.  Price is too high in Irvine and demand should go down because people can't afford it.
Supply is going up because old house are trying to cash out and there are just ALOT of new home.
Click to expand...

Drop by how much? You know, Irvine is on the #1 list for mainland Chinese immigrating to southern California. The demand is still growing for this group of buyers.

I am betting prices will stay where it is now or drop just a bit because of the GP homes.
Click to expand...

Not so fast....

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100910782

Overseas wealthy slow purchases of US real estate

The flood of money pouring into U.S. real estate from the overseas rich may be slowing.

Foreign purchases of real estate in the U.S. dropped 17 percent in the 12 months ended in March compared with the same period a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. The high end of the market felt the brunt of it.

Sales of homes priced at $1 million or more to overseas buyers dropped to about 6.5 percent of sales from 10 percent?the sharpest drop in any price category.
 
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