House price appreciation

[Legit949]

The purchase price of our Terrazza 2X  home in Orchard Hills was in the low 900k range. I couldn't be happier with our purchase...

 

[pricedoutJay]

I agree with OH being the best chance whether TUSD or IUSD.  It's on hilly area which is not that common in central Irvine and very well planned out.  I couldn't afford anything in OH even though I was waiting for it since 2009 but when 2013 came around, it was pretty obvious that I missed the boat or couldn't qualify for what I wanted.

However, I would not dis PS.  It's been the cheapest new construction village in Irvine and the appreciation has not been great due to landfill, cemetery and all, but once the PS 4, 5 and northern part of GP are built with some shopping areas, it may not seem too far especially when Spectrum is in 10 to 15 min range.

Also I heard that last year when Portola High opened, almost all "bright" students went there from Jeffery Trail Jr. High.  I mean it's brand new school in a large campus with high tech everything and great potential.  Well, that says about not so great sport teams but AP scores and college admission determine how good schools are so within 5 years, we'll see if Portola High will come out like Northwood or not.  When Northwood opened, Irvine High parents didn't want to sent kids there.  Disclaimer: I have two kids but they don't and won't go Portola since they play sports.

 

[OCLuvr]

Agreed. Rather, once free exit on 133/Trabuco exit opens up, PS would get much better access to I5/405--using ridge valley. As far as cemetery goes, gov. visited today and should have verdict pretty soon.
Landfill is non-issue; turtle ridge used to be near landfill too. (I understand it is closed now).
The only part I am unable to understand is: why would you buy in TUSD side of OH and pay premium if you could get same thing in Tustin ranch at cheaper price? (Tustin ranch kids go to same schools as OH TUSD)

 

[Paris167]

The only part I am unable to understand is: why would you buy in TUSD side of OH and pay premium if you could get same thing in Tustin ranch at cheaper price? (Tustin ranch kids go to same schools as OH TUSD)

Because not everyone buys a home solely based on schools. OH still falls into a home within the city of Irvine (over Tustin) with new homes, new floor plans, higher elevation, hillside views etc. Many reasons people would choose OH Irvine for a home purchase over Tustin Ranch.

How about "At the Groves" at OH. Does it have any negative impact due to being in Tustin school District?

Perhaps, but from looking at the sales of these high end home, it does not reflect any.

Also looking at the small sample of Strada sales, doesn't look like there any difference in home appreciation on which school district the home is zoned to.

I don't think TUSD/IUSD issue has much  negative impact in the Groves for two main reasons:

1. The houses are big and tend to be occupied by "move up" owners. In my neighborhood, there's a lot of people who are in their 50s and their kids are grown. They bought here just because they want the nice house and the nice hillside setting (and for some tracts, for the large lot, a view, etc)--schools are not necessarily the number 1 consideration. 

There are just not that many owners with young kids in the Groves compared to other neighborhoods in Irvine I've been in. Also, seems like a lot of people here have lived in Irvine for a long time and sold their previous homes to move here. They are local and familiar with the fact that these particular TUSD schools are just as good or better than Irvine schools. As opposed to transplants who may not be aware of this finer point, and know only IUSD due to marketing from TIC.

2. There's a fair percentage of school age kids here that go to private school.

Capella has many families with young children but interestingly I would say at least 40% of them are attending private school. For us the schools zones to the TUSD side of the Groves are just as good as IUSD and did not affect our purchase decision in any way. I actually have friends with homes zones to Uni High that send their children to private schools to avoid the competition factor of Uni High since this creates a negative impact for their children during the college admission process. I'm all for a free education through these great public schools - at least some benefit I can get for the high property taxes I pay living in Irvine.

 

[OCLuvr]

Understood. Since question is about appreciation, I would recommend comparing two areas of Northpark, one in IUSD another in TUSD (both are guard gated).

 

[Paris167]

Understood. Since question is about appreciation, I would recommend comparing two areas of Northpark, one in IUSD another in TUSD (both are guard gated).

I lived in Northpark before moving to OH. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure all of the homes in Northpark are TUSD.

 

[OCLuvr]

My bad. I meant to compare price appreciation between Northpark and Northwood. (Both gated communities)

 

[eatthis]

School rating within the district goes up and down. I don't see it has something to get hung up on for a long term investment.
The trend for Irvine is toward smaller and smaller lots for same size homes. Ultimately, homes with bigger lots and comfortable distance from neighbors will be harder to find and get a higher price premium.
If you plan to buy your forever home I'd go with a house you like on a bigger lot, even with slightly bigger MR. Eventually inflation will eat away at the MR and it'll feel like peanuts. I remember thinking many years back that $2000/year for MR is ridiculous. Not so today.

 

[Legit949]

@OCLuvr 

FYI...Hicks Canyon Elementary and Orchard Hills School (TUSD Side for Orchard Hills) is attended by 100% Irvine Residents. Beckman High School is attended by Tustin Ranch and Orchard Hills (TUSD Side) residents.

 

[OCLuvr]

I thought we agreed that mostly move up buyers are buying in Groves/OH(As mentioned by nyctooc) and ,statistically speaking, they would care more about middle school/high school than elementary school. 

 

[nyc to oc]

I looked for a long time for a house in Tustin Ranch over OH (was targeting Beckman High and Pioneer or OH middle) but just didn't like that many of the older floor plans in Tustin Ranch. Also, the HOA fees in Tustin Ranch do not provide the same level of community amenities.  If you want newer floor plan, community amenities, and those schools, you kind of have to go with OH, or  Northpark/Northpark Square (but Northpark tends to have the compartmentalized floor plans that were popular in the early 2000s.

 

[OCLuvr]

PaperBoyNc had started following thread to talk about Irvine school rankings last year:
Pretty much coincides with appreciation http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,14729.msg296323.html#msg296323

That time, Portola High wasn't there; so, it doesn't have rankings for it.

Elementary Students Math English Average
Stonegate         625 86 89 87.5
Vista Verde 641 83 90 86.5
Turtle Rock 557 86 86 86
Canyon View 501 81 85 83
Portola Springs 276 81 85 83
Santiago Hills 398 84 82 83
Stone Creek 373 80 82 81
Bonita Canyon 316 78 83 80.5
Brywood 378 81 78 79.5
Hicks Canyon 414 79 79 79
Alderwood 483 75 82 78.5
Deerfield 376 78 79 78.5
Westpark 448 78 79 78.5
Meadow Park 409 74 82 78
Eastshore 407 75 80 77.5
Myford 392 74 79 76.5
Cypress Village 411 74 76 75
Plaza Vista 598 76 73 74.5
Woodbury 605 73 76 74.5
Northwood 454 68 75 71.5
Oak Creek 492 69 73 71
College Park 463 71 69 70
University Park 323 66 63 64.5
Greentree 312 61 67 64
Springbrook 358 62 66 64
Culverdale 431 55 55 55

Middle Students Math English Average
Rancho San Joaquin 865 84 83 83.5
Jeffrey Trail 1003 82 84 83
Orchard Hills 1148 78 84 81
Sierra Vista 848 80 81 80.5
Lakeside 640 75 83 79
Venado 650 74 77 75.5
South Lake 689 72 73 72.5

High School Students Math English Average
Northwood 521 82 86 84
University 605 74 79 76.5
Woodbridge 562 70 80 75
Irvine 471 66 79 72.5

 

[eatthis]

All this comparison of schools in context of house price appreciation is just ridiculous. All the school in Irvine will be pretty solid for the foreseeable future.
House is a long term investment. It's impossible to predict which school within the district will be better in the long run. The best bet is to focus on things that will be universal, like a bigger lot, closer to the ocean, easy freeway access, view, etc.

 

[OCLuvr]

I agree, but some how that is what Irvine buyers look for--e.g. in my opinion, Woodbury is better location than Stonegate, but Stonegate has appreciated significantly more than Woodbury. And, the only rationale I could find is: school.

 

[lnc]

I agree, but some how that is what Irvine buyers look for--e.g. in my opinion, Woodbury is better location than Stonegate, but Stonegate has appreciated significantly more than Woodbury. And, the only rationale I could find is: school.

I believe WB appreciated about the same as Stonegate from 2012 onward.  It's just that WB came out on the height of last housing bubble and the market down turn lower the WB's home prices for several years.

But the properties in WB as being mostly over 10 years old, future appreciation might have more headwinds than Stonegate. 

 

[OCLuvr]

Last time I checked, one could get ~3200 sq ft home for $1.3M in Woodbury, 1.4M in PS1, and 1.5M in SG. Please correct me if my understanding is outdated.
On the same lines, SG SFR is going for $1.15M where as similar plan in EW is going for $1.25M. SG attached townhomes, similar sq ft, are going for ~$720K where as similar plan is going for ~$770K in EW...so on and so forth...

 

[woodburyowner]

If you plan to buy your forever home I'd go with a house you like on a bigger lot, even with slightly bigger MR. Eventually inflation will eat away at the MR and it'll feel like peanuts. I remember thinking many years back that $2000/year for MR is ridiculous. Not so today.

One important point to note is that some newer communities such as PP/BP have MR that can increase yearly.  Since the homes already start with an astronomical MR amount, the yearly % increase can really ramp up the MR you end up paying.

 

[Legit949]

Shortly, Orchard Hills School will have kids from $3 and $4 million dollar homes attending it.

 

[Rtlguru]

I agree, but some how that is what Irvine buyers look for--e.g. in my opinion, Woodbury is better location than Stonegate, but Stonegate has appreciated significantly more than Woodbury. And, the only rationale I could find is: school.

First of all, I'm not expert on these two communities.

However I did look at some Woodbury resales recently and I hated the dated floor plans and style of the homes there. They have not aged well. I believe Woodbury does not have 10 foot ceilings either - but I may be wrong.

Liked the floor plans at auburn much more. I wouldn't buy in Woodbury even if they had north wood hs.

I felt the same comparing  northpark vs north wood pointe. Pointe homes with vaulted ceilings and open plans have aged much better than tusd northpark.

 

[OCLuvr]

Agreed. I have also heard people saying " I am paying $1.3M and all what I get in the name of yard is: 300 sq ft".