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[quote author="T!m" date=1213399480]



Well, I am not convinced that Iraq would be the mess you describe if we left. However, I don't think we should just pull everyone out ASAP. I haven't heard either candidate propose that either. However, I get nervous because no one seems to have a good answer on when we should get "out." Yes, we have bases in those countries. But, I don't see us running a lot of military operations in England. I don't really want to argue this whole thing with you cuz I bet we aren't that far apart really. The whole thing boils down to speculation anyway. </blockquote>


Barack is on record in supporting immediate withdrawals. <blockquote><em>Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda.</em> <strong>-taken from his website</strong></blockquote>


While we don't run military operations, we do run drills and exercises and train with the host country's military. My point was that we have a model for post-occupation that has been successful for more than 60 years and no one is screaming for us to get out of Germany. We may not be all that far apart, but I wouldn't define it as a speculation so much as a probability based on the current and recent actions being taken by the countries mentioned. Syrians cross the border to join the militias, Iran produced and exports the IEDs used for bombs, and Turkey has technically invaded Iraq more than once in an effort to capture or kill Kurdish militants.



<blockquote>Here is a bizarre mental exercise. We went into Iraq to free the people from the violent dictator. And supposedly to protect us from him. After doing this, of course, many more thousands have died than would have otherwise. So, what is to stop other countries from going in to Iraq to free the people from us? And to protect themselves from us?</blockquote>
Despite the internet meme that has spun it, Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech was accurate: we decimated Iraq's entire military and dismantled their government in <strong>less than 30 days</strong>. Had we placed a sufficient number of troops on the ground from that point forward (thanks a lot Rummy, you fucktard), we could have effectively quelled the violence that plagued the country until The Surge began last summer. Despite the rhetoric and sabre rattling, there are very few military forces that could resist the American military. We could decimate the entire region's armed forces if we had to, but we simply don't have the numbers to keep the peace once the military victory has been secured. Iran, Syria, Egypt, UAE, Turkey, Libya... we can beat them all tomorrow but it isn't logistically possible for one country to maintain effective peaceful control once the governments are removed. Knowing that, the countries surrounding Iraq are content to play provocateur but they won't invade as long as we are there.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1213409824][quote author="T!m" date=1213399480]



Well, I am not convinced that Iraq would be the mess you describe if we left. However, I don't think we should just pull everyone out ASAP. I haven't heard either candidate propose that either. However, I get nervous because no one seems to have a good answer on when we should get "out." Yes, we have bases in those countries. But, I don't see us running a lot of military operations in England. I don't really want to argue this whole thing with you cuz I bet we aren't that far apart really. The whole thing boils down to speculation anyway. </blockquote>


Barack is on record in supporting immediate withdrawals. <blockquote><em>Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda.</em> <strong>-taken from his website</strong></blockquote></blockquote>


Yeah, 16 months sounds like plenty to me. That would be 16 months from when he takes office in Jan of 2009. That makes it May of 2010. That is 2 years from now. May of 2010 will be 7, yes SEVEN :bug: , years from when we invaded. That is a really long time. If Iraq isn't able to police itself by then, then I don't think it ever will. The USA can't afford to keep at it forever.



<blockquote>While we don't run military operations, we do run drills and exercises and train with the host country's military. My point was that we have a model for post-occupation that has been successful for more than 60 years and no one is screaming for us to get out of Germany. We may not be all that far apart, but I wouldn't define it as a speculation so much as a probability based on the current and recent actions being taken by the countries mentioned. Syrians cross the border to join the militias, Iran produced and exports the IEDs used for bombs, and Turkey has technically invaded Iraq more than once in an effort to capture or kill Kurdish militants.</blockquote>
And WHY do Syrians cross the border and WHY do Iranians export IEDs? -- to kill Americans that are in Iraq. If we leave, they have no more targets. Turkey is a different problem altogether.



<blockquote><blockquote>Here is a bizarre mental exercise. We went into Iraq to free the people from the violent dictator. And supposedly to protect us from him. After doing this, of course, many more thousands have died than would have otherwise. So, what is to stop other countries from going in to Iraq to free the people from us? And to protect themselves from us?</blockquote>
...we can beat them all tomorrow but it isn't logistically possible for one country to maintain effective peaceful control once the governments are removed. Knowing that, the countries surrounding Iraq are content to play provocateur but they won't invade as long as we are there.</blockquote>


I guess I wasn't clear. I didn't mean what force was stopping them. I mean, why does the US think it is wrong for them to do so? From another persective, we have taken the place of Saddam. We are killing Iraqis. Our contractors even have immunity from prosecution.



Also, this is my last post on this here since this isn't really the right thread for this.
 
McCain or Obama, we're out of there with an orgainzed retreat in Jan of 2009.



Barry McCafferty says so.



So does Colin Powell.



So does anyone else with any credibiltiy on the situaiton.



We are out of forces to fight with. The current admin has broken the millitary (regular and reserves) because they didn't listen in 2003 to what the actual costs would be, or they did and chose to not believe them.



It is my sincere beilef that the powers that be discounted the conventional wisdom as "underselling" our millitary might. I think they didn't expect to be there this long. They drank Koolaide too.
 
<blockquote>And WHY do Syrians cross the border and WHY do Iranians export IEDs??to kill Americans that are in Iraq. If we leave, they have no more targets. Turkey is a different problem altogether.</blockquote>
Umm, no. Syria supports Sunni Islam, while Iran is mostly Shi'a. The primary targets of those two subsects of Islam are each other, not Americans. To the extent that roadside bombs are used, they are attacks by what is left of al-Queda in Iraq and by the remnants of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi 'army'. al-Sadr was/is being supprted by Iran with the intention of harrasing the American forces and provoking civil unrest with the ultimate goal being annexation of the Shi'a area of Iraq when we leave. Syria wants the same thing for the Sunni areas, and both want control over the oil fields within the sectarian boundaries. Your view of things is overly simplistic and ignores the political motives of Iraq's neighbors and it's effect on the people in Iraq. Iran wants to be the regional super power, they want as much control of the oil in the area as they can get and Iraq has very large reserves. They are pursuing nuclear weapons because it is the one thing that can prevent the US from invading (see North Korea and Pakistan) and allow them to establish a new balance of power in both the Middle East and around the world. Were they not so aggressively anti-West and anti-Isreal we probably wouldn't care (see India) but it's pretty obvious what they want and they are taking great efforts to accomplish that. If all they wanted to do was kill Americans, you would see floods of Iranians crossing the border to act as "Iraqi" insurgents and send wave after wave of suicide bombers to attack American installations. Instead they keep poking at us with small attacks that provide fodder for the anti-war crowd to use as a reason to just give up and leave. Sadly, it's working.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1213421412]McCain or Obama, we're out of there with an orgainzed retreat in Jan of 2009.



Barry McCafferty says so.



So does Colin Powell.



So does anyone else with any credibiltiy on the situaiton.



We are out of forces to fight with. The current admin has broken the millitary (regular and reserves) because they didn't listen in 2003 to what the actual costs would be, or they did and chose to not believe them.



It is my sincere beilef that the powers that be discounted the conventional wisdom as "underselling" our millitary might. I think they didn't expect to be there this long. They drank Koolaide too.</blockquote>
Rumsfeld seriously miscalculated how much support we would get from our allies and the Iraqi government. I think he expected that the Shi'a and Sunni would drop their differences and work together to secure the country and move forward. He forgot about the chaos that ensues when a power vacuum occurs; suddenly everyone wants to be in charge and tell others what to do leaving too many chiefs and not enough indians. Hindsight being 20/20, I am sure we won't invade anyone else without a proper plan for handling the occupation, one with another 60,000 troops to act as street cop.



But I don't think McCain pulls out.
 
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