Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Not sure if this has already been posted (couldn't find it in a search), but in case anyone wants to see it, <a href="http://www.car.org/library/media/papers/pdf/10-10-07EXPOForecastLAY.pdf">here is the complete CAR 2008 RE market forecast</a> (in nice, shiny pdf form) that came out last month.
 
<p>the industry will suffer $148 Billion total losses related to CDOs, to date we've accounted for roughly about $40 billion of those, so we're estimating another $108 billion in writedowns over the next several quarters.


Goldman Sachs, Nov 19, 2007</p>

<p>So, GS is saying CDO losses could total $148 bil. I have said it before and will say it again, The CDOs are not the large problem. Total CDSs, credit default swaps are about $20 tril. And the total OTC derivatives are about $400 tril. And I am willing to bet dollars to donuts that most of the performance of the CDSs will depend upon the losing side of the CDOs to be able to pay, and they will not be able to. The market value of a non-performing CDS is $0. There is no underlying asset. So, when you read all the BS noise about how this paper will come back to a reasonable value based on the real value of the collateral, know that there is no collateral. The non-performing party, for whatever reason, will not be able to convert any pledged collateral into liquidity. And even if there was, the underlying asset's value is immaterial because the paper is <strong>only worth</strong> what the next fool is willing to pay for it. And we all know how that is going with all the real property which is worth ...</p>

<p>This is gonna sound kinda awful and I don't like saying it, but here goes. Things are gonna get real bad. Real property prices are going to go farther south than most of us can grasp. And the worse part is that most of us who are waiting to buy will not be able to buy when the prices are at the bottom because credit will not be available, or currency worth will have changed or some other financially limiting reason. The reason prices will fall as much as they will is <strong>because</strong> very few will be able to buy. </p>
 
<p><a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/gs-conference-call-mortgage-fall-out.html">http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/gs-conference-call-mortgage-fall-out.html</a></p>

<p><em>Eight states ... for which there is greater than 30% house price depreciation forecast would be California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington D.C. ... 13% to 14% nationally masks some states that we have accute concerns.</em>


Goldman Sachs, Nov 19, 2007</p>
 
<p>lendingmaestro - not sure what will happen there with the municipal bonds, here is my best uneducated guess</p>

<p>1. The municipal bond issuers will still pay their bonds (regardless of the credit rating) because they know if they don't their rates for all future borrowing will be sky high. Therefore, they will default on everyone else (ex. govt suppliers, govt employees, etc.) if they run short. And there will be tax hikes.</p>

<p>2. I read on some blog comments somewhere that if the municipal ratings drop below a certain rating, then certain institutions (ex. pension funds or whatever) won't be allowed to invest in them any more as they have to invest in things with a certain rating or higher. This means it'll be more expensive to issue new municpal bonds (ex. pay a higher rate of return), so taxes will go up and/or municipal spending will go down.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Lending M--yes those things will happen. Teachers and police will get salary reductions. But there will still be teachers and cops and they will get some money.</p>

<p>Few gov't entities went bust. Most bondholders got paid. Eventually. There's something backing those bonds, not just air or good wishes.</p>

<p>Now if we have a lot of inflation rather than deflation, lord knows what will happen. The Brazillians seemed to have figured out how to deal with their hyperinflation, don't know where they're at now, probably plain inflation, but Germany didn't with theirs. Hence (dare I say it) Hitler and NAZIs.</p>

<p>Things will not be beautiful in this area, but compared with other financial areas, the ugliness will be much less.</p>

<p>IR's song of yesterday Eve Of Destruction was referring to nuclear war. We are merely gonna be poor. I was one of the kids who had drills where we hid under our wooden desks. We should keep things in perspective. Friends of mine seriously worried about living to grow up.</p>

<p>We could salvage something if only W would bring the troops home and spend the money are rebuilding roads, dams, bridges, and other infrastructure, which needs doing anyway, and consists of good, high paying jobs. But nothing so sensible shall happen.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Yes, but poverty breeds crime. Poorer areas have higher crime rates. It is going to get pretty bad for a lot of people in California. Desperate times call for desperate measures; this is the unfortunate and raw reality of human nature. I foresee a skyrocketing crime rate (mostly theft and burglary) with a skyrocketing divorce rate coupled with an increase in domestic violence.</p>

<p>If any portion of this prediction comes true, our stressed state budget will need to beef up an already under-funded police force.</p>
 
<p>I"d imagine the pension funds have already rethought their requirements, having taken pain over AAA rated subprime stuff that magically got rerated junk overnight. And the rethinking is probably let's be super super conservative, no matter how terrible the return is, because we've already taken a ton of flack for investing in flaky things...</p>
 
awgee,





One of the facts people overlook when talking about much lower housing prices is that these houses will still be "expensive" from a financing perspective. There will never be truly cheap houses, just lower priced houses with expensive and difficult to obtain financing. Of course, this is also why it makes the best time to buy because when credit does eventually loosen and financing terms are more favorable (very distant future), you can refinance and save money then.
 
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/us/18renters.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5088&en=ac0867fa0effebf5&ex=1353042000&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1195481734-VOnj/n%20OqA7Tp59Cnmc2/Q">As Owners Feel Mortgage Pain, So Do Renters</a>





By JOHN LELAND


Published: November 18, 2007





LAS VEGAS — In the foreclosure crisis of 2007, thousands of American families are losing their homes without ever missing a payment. They are renters in houses whose owners default on their mortgages — a large but little noticed class of casualties.





Louie and Lara Northern and their family have learned that their rented home in a new subdivision of Las Vegas is in foreclosure, which could force them to vacate with 72 hours’ notice.





Maj. Matt Belmonte lives with his wife, Diana, son, Nick, and dog in a leased house that is in foreclosure. He said: “These folks gambled on interest rates and lost. And now I lost, too.”





Some live in big apartments, others in houses owned by small investors who got in over their heads.





There are no exact figures for how many renters have been evicted because of foreclosures, but a survey taken this year by the Mortgage Bankers Association found that one in eight foreclosures was non-owner-occupied. This figure probably underestimates the problem, according to the association, because buildings receive tax benefits if they are registered as owner-occupied. More than one million properties are expected to enter foreclosure this year.





Many renters say they never even knew their buildings were heading for foreclosure.





“This is an explosion,” said Judith Liben, a lawyer at the Massachusetts Law Reform Institute. “This isn’t business as usual. These are investors that overleveraged themselves, and the renters are collateral damage in the mortgage crisis.”





Here in Nevada, which has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country, 28 percent of mortgages that were in default earlier this year were for homes not owner-occupied, more than twice the national average, according to the bankers group. Arizona and Florida, both leaders in foreclosures, are also well above the national average. In California, 22 percent of the properties lost to foreclosure this year were not owner-occupied, according to ForeclosureRadar.com, which tracks California foreclosure auctions.





Foreclosing lenders typically evict tenants in order to sell the property, said Vicki Vidal, senior director of loan administration and government affairs at the Mortgage Bankers Association.





“Banks don’t want to be landlords,” Ms. Vidal said. “They’re in the business of making mortgages. You need to recoup the money to keep the process moving.”





Unlike owners who lose their houses, renters do not stand to forfeit years of equity. And many can find comparable rentals.





Lara and Louie Northern, who live in a home that is in foreclosure in a new subdivision here, far from the Strip, say they have never been late on a rent payment. But each day in their four-bedroom house, they wonder whether this will be the day they get an eviction notice telling them they have 72 hours to leave the property.





Though the Northerns’ lease runs until January 2009, a few weeks ago they packed all nonessential items in their garage — everything but clothes, linens, cookware and furniture — in case they have to leave in a hurry.





“It’s not normal to live like this,” said Mr. Northern, 36, a mail carrier, standing amid empty bookshelves and bare walls. “And the worst part is not knowing if we’re going to have a note on the door tonight, tomorrow or the next day.”





The House on Thursday passed a broad mortgage act that includes protections for renters. The House act, which the lending industry has opposed, would require new owners to continue the leases of tenants for up to six months after foreclosure.





Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, who introduced similar legislation in the Senate, said in a statement, “A foreclosure doesn’t differentiate between a homeowner and a renter residing in a defaulting property.” Currently, most state or local laws do not provide this protection.





In a statement, the White House said it opposed a number of provisions in the House mortgage bill, but did not single out protection to renters.





Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, has been an epicenter of foreclosures, with nearly 30,000 defaults in the first nine months of this year, up from about 14,000 in the same period in 2006, according to the county recorder’s office.





The county more than doubled in population since 1990, to nearly 2 million from 800,000. That growth, along with rising home prices, made it a magnet for speculators, including small investors who took advantage of low, teaser mortgage rates to buy rental properties for less than they would cost in California.





“A lot of the investors were subprime, but the market was so great they could keep refinancing and make the mortgage payments with no problem,” said Anna Marie Johnson, the director of Nevada Legal Services, whose clients increasingly include displaced tenants.
 
<p>caliguy2699 - thanks for the CAR link at the top of the page. Interesting reading there for historical tables and figures. </p>

<p>Also the "this is what it's all about" photo on the last 2 pages is priceless.</p>
 
Mortgage meltdown seen spreading to credit cards

Analysts point to new round of charge-offs expected by major U.S. issuers



<p>http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-card-firms-seen-preparing/story.aspx?guid=%7B28B696C5%2DFC9F%2D400D%2D835D%2D6B187435D031%7D</p>
 
<p>TOKYO <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUST2423120071120">(Reuters)</a> - The Nikkei average tumbled to a 16-month low on Tuesday and the TOPIX to a two-year low, battered by a Wall Street slide on renewed credit worries and concerns about U.S. economic strength, along with a strong yen.</p>

<p>Banks such as Mizuho Financial Group suffered after Goldman Sachs downgraded Citigroup Inc to "sell" from "neutral", saying the largest U.S. bank may have to write off $15 billion over the next two quarters as mortgage losses reduce earnings.</p>

<p><a href="javascript:launchArticleSlideshow();"><img alt="Photo" border="0" src="http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20071120&t=2&i=2240410&w=192&r=2007-11-20T001344Z_01_T24231_RTRUKOP_0_PICTURE0" /></a></p>
 
<p>Liz, you are correct when you surmise municipalities may not have enough cash to pay essential public safety personnel. My old department (CT) laid of 10% of police officers during the last downturn...I'm guessing around 1992 or so. We all voluntarily took a 10% paycut in order to bring our fellow officers back on the job. Somehow I just don't think such a thing would happen here in SoCal.</p>

<p>And yes, crime will surge. Buy a safe.</p>
 
From Paul Farrell's article that Eff linked:





<em> Wake up, the train wrecked. Time to think positive, find solutions, demand sacrifices.</em>
 
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