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Uh, what exactly is a "great possibility"? Can an event be "greatly possible"? Is it more likely to happen than something with a "tiny likelihood", or is it just something that could happen to a great extent?
 
[quote author="Daedalus" date=1229142967]Uh, what exactly is a "great possibility"? Can an event be "greatly possible"? Is it more likely to happen than something with a "tiny likelihood", or is it just something that could happen to a great extent?</blockquote>


"great possibility" in this case is "not a snowball's chance in hell."
 
My take on falling home prices is that they have farther to go, but I don't think they will take "decades" to recover. Yes, being in cash has been the smart move for the past few months. Think that will go on forever? What happens when all the money the government has been "printing" takes hold in the form of inflation? Cash will be dead, and anything tangible - including real estate - will appreciate in value. This isn't going to happen next week, but it is likely to happen within the next 1-2 years. That's when we'll see a rebound in housing prices, though granted the "inflation adjusted" prices won't likley reach the peaks we saw in 2005.



The difference between today and 1929 and the great depression is the speed at which the markets move. Some stocks have dropped 70-90% in just a few months. It took years for the same thing to occur after the crash of 1929. Same thing, but the speed at which it occurs is somewhat accelerated.



Just my 2 cents worth.
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1229163097]My take on falling home prices is that they have farther to go, but I don't think they will take "decades" to recover. Yes, being in cash has been the smart move for the past few months. Think that will go on forever? What happens when all the money the government has been "printing" takes hold in the form of inflation? Cash will be dead, and anything tangible - including real estate - will appreciate in value. This isn't going to happen next week, but it is likely to happen within the next 1-2 years. That's when we'll see a rebound in housing prices, though granted the "inflation adjusted" prices won't likley reach the peaks we saw in 2005.



The difference between today and 1929 and the great depression is the speed at which the markets move. Some stocks have dropped 70-90% in just a few months. It took years for the same thing to occur after the crash of 1929. Same thing, but the speed at which it occurs is somewhat accelerated.



Just my 2 cents worth.</blockquote>


You might be right, although I doubt it. There are a large number of underwater homedebtors who will cling to the hope that prices come roaring back in a couple of years. It is clear that fundamentals of rent and income will not reach levels capable of supporting 2006 house prices for a couple of decades. It certainly is possible that the FED may allow inflation to further monetize the debt, and it is always possible for Californians to inflate another housing bubble -- lenders permitting it of course.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1229126643]OMG!! This man is a legend on Wall Street...He practically invented electronic trading...Very disheartening



?He?s one of the pioneers of modern Wall Street,? said James Angel, an associate business professor at Georgetown University in Washington. Madoff?s firm was among the first to automate market-making, in which a dealer continually buys and sells stock. The company was among the largest to offer ?payment for order flow,? or paying to handle customer orders.





<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGQSr_LRM_.8&refer=worldwide">Madoff Charged in $50 Billion Fraud at Advisory Firm </a></blockquote>


It is especially disheartening to read the articles, <a href="http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/files/madoff.pdf">but when in doubt... you really should shout</a>. Here is my favorite part...

<em>

Madoff, who believes that he deserves ?some credibility as a trader for 40 years,? says: ?The strategy is the strategy and the returns are the returns.? He suggests that those who believe there is something more to it and are seeking an answer beyond that are wasting their time.</em>



Anyone who never seems to have a losing month in the stock market, and makes a comment like this is full of sh*t. I've had bad months trading, and even some of the best traders I know have had bad months, but no one has ever made such claims as this. I really feel sorry for Bernie's sons, as they not only were the ones who turned him in, but but they will be dealing with the fallout for some time.
 
You know France practicall shut down over $7 billion in bank fraud earlier this year, I wonder what $50 billion will do to us



<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122914169719104017.html">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122914169719104017.html</a>
 
<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081213/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_stimulus_1">One Trillion Dollars</a>



<img src="http://www.solarnavigator.net/films_movies_actors/film_images/Austin_Powers_Mike_Myers_as_Dr_Evil.jpg" alt="" />



AKA, Obama's Economic Stimulus Plan
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1229335041]<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081214/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates_2">Fed thinks of cutting rates, again.</a>



What happens when they get to zero?</blockquote>


<span style="color: red;">But Moody's chief economist John Lonski is a skeptic. "The problem with zero is it's going to wreak havoc with money-market funds. I don't think the Fed wants to do that," he says.</span>



<a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122731210959949379.html?mod=rss_barrons_current_yield">Linky</a>



<em>The Federal Open Market Committee began the current easing cycle in September 2007, when the Fed funds target rate was 5.25% ? not especially high by historical standards. The Fed cut rates by 100 basis points by the end of last year and another 225 basis points by the spring. According to Fed Chairman Bernanke, ?by way of historical comparison, this policy response stands out as exceptionally rapid and proactive.? However, financial instability increased in September and the FOMC cut by another 100 basis points in October (the October 8 move was an unprecedented coordinated cut with five other central banks). With inflation looking like a credible threat, some criticized the Fed?s rate cuts. However, in hindsight, the Fed?s action seems well-timed. Inflation did advance into the summer months, but has begun retreating, due largely to falling energy prices.</em> <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/109907-bringing-fed-funds-rate-to-zero-may-not-be-the-best-idea">Linky</a>



<img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/12/9/saupload_081208_1_2.png" alt="" />
 
[quote author="ogredave" date=1229335986]<a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/28223089#28223089">Journalist throws shoes @ Pres. Bush</a></blockquote>


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!



:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:



My question is: where the hell was the secret service? The guy got 2 shoes in before anyone went running up to the podium. Do they just not care anymore?
 
see, there's a good reason why the president needs to work out 4 hrs a day. REFLEXES! and next time when it's obama out there, the POTUS will be even faster. he might just catch the shoe in midair and chuck it back, a la kurt russell in big trouble little china (in case you're one of the two other other people in the world that have seen that flick.)



also, i wonder if this journalist who was so brave to throw a shoe a the POTUS would have so much sneezed in saddam's direction before he was executed on the spot and then his home burned down with his family still in it.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1229387541]see, there's a good reason why the president needs to work out 4 hrs a day. REFLEXES! and next time when it's obama out there, the POTUS will be even faster. he might just catch the shoe in midair and chuck it back, a la kurt russell in big trouble little china (in case you're one of the two other other people in the world that have seen that flick.)

</blockquote>


Lo Pan: You never could beat me, Egg Shen.



<em>edit to add: BTILC was required viewing material in the UCI dorms.</em>
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1229335041]<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081214/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates_2">Fed thinks of cutting rates, again.</a>



What happens when they get to zero?</blockquote>


Quantitative Easing
 
<strong>Deaf 'Extreme Makeover' couple gets financial aid</strong>



Several thousand dollars have rolled in for a deaf Michigan couple who feared they were going to lose the home whose renovation was viewed by millions on TV in 2004.



Judy and Larry Vardon say the money should help them avoid foreclosure on the Oakland County home that was refurbished to better accommodate their blind, autistic son. The family was featured on "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition."



The Vardons said they were weighed down by a mortgage payment that almost doubled since the makeover, and by medical insurance that hasn't covered autism treatment for 16-year-old son Lance.



<a href="http://tv.yahoo.com/show/36736/news/urn:newsml:tv.ap.org:20081215:extreme_makeover_foreclosure__ER:50545">Link</a>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1229394677][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1229335041]<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081214/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates_2">Fed thinks of cutting rates, again.</a>



What happens when they get to zero?</blockquote>


Quantitative Easing</blockquote>
Or they'll begin to pay banks to lend out money.
 
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