effenheimer_IHB
New member
Yup... It's the richest 5% driving 400sq ft condos to $250k. We know how much they enjoy that kind of living.
Headlines...
- Thread starter effenheimer_IHB
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
Whenever an article says "real estate experts" to bolster the credibility of some dubious claim, I immediately think "shills who depend on real estate."
awgee_IHB
New member
From what I have read, the wealthy in this country have gotten much wealthier in the last few years, and that wealth has driven the price of luxury goods and homes. My guess is those who have managed to convert high income to asset wealth will do well in a re downturn, and the opposite will be true for those high income earners who managed to spend everything they had and leverage themselves out into gobs of debt.<p>
Massive amounts of liquidity have driven multiple asset bubbles, including re, but it is very possible the credit expansion is slowing,and those who have made a huge amount of money from the created money will have to learn to do with less if we start to experience a credit contraction.
Massive amounts of liquidity have driven multiple asset bubbles, including re, but it is very possible the credit expansion is slowing,and those who have made a huge amount of money from the created money will have to learn to do with less if we start to experience a credit contraction.
Trooper_IHB
New member
<a href="http://www.housingwire.com/2007/07/11/feel-the-chill-fremont-agrees-to-foreclosure-moratorium-in-massachusetts/">Feel the Chill: Fremont Agrees to Foreclosure Moratorium in Massachusetts</a>
<p><strong>http://tinyurl.com/2v3dho</strong>
</p>
<p><strong>http://tinyurl.com/2v3dho</strong>
</p>
Trooper_IHB
New member
<p>WOW</p>
<p><a href="http://www.housingwire.com/2007/07/11/big-money-put-on-countrywide-to-crash-by-next-friday/">Big Money Put on Countrywide To Crash — By Next Friday</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.housingwire.com/2007/07/11/big-money-put-on-countrywide-to-crash-by-next-friday/">Big Money Put on Countrywide To Crash — By Next Friday</a></p>
graphrix_IHB
New member
<p>Sounds like someone has been leaking some info on CFC. If you buy big enough and it drops expect a call from the SEC. But for fun let me see if some of their MBS pools have been updated. </p>
<p>Ok don't take a sip from a drink 2006-BC2 has a 16.37% delinquency rate. Hey that is only $106 million. 9.63% is in foreclosure or REO blah what's $40 mil amongst friends. The 2006-11 has a deliquency rate of 13.6% or $215 mil and 6.95% is in foreclosure or REO for mere $110 mil. How about ALT 2006-OA12 which I assume is option arms is at a 7.63% delinquency rate for a measly $64.7 mil with 1.94% in foreclosure or REO which is only $16.4 mil. This is actually really bad since most option arms are performing pretty well right now. I could go on but you get the point which is this is ugly. I don't even want to tell you what the 30 day and 60 day late percentages are for the 2007 pools. </p>
<p>Ok don't take a sip from a drink 2006-BC2 has a 16.37% delinquency rate. Hey that is only $106 million. 9.63% is in foreclosure or REO blah what's $40 mil amongst friends. The 2006-11 has a deliquency rate of 13.6% or $215 mil and 6.95% is in foreclosure or REO for mere $110 mil. How about ALT 2006-OA12 which I assume is option arms is at a 7.63% delinquency rate for a measly $64.7 mil with 1.94% in foreclosure or REO which is only $16.4 mil. This is actually really bad since most option arms are performing pretty well right now. I could go on but you get the point which is this is ugly. I don't even want to tell you what the 30 day and 60 day late percentages are for the 2007 pools. </p>
raymond_IHB
New member
<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/11/real_estate/housing_forecast/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote">Housing slump gets longer, and longer ...</a>
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The slump in home sales and prices will be deeper and last longer than previously expected, according to the latest forecast Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/11/real_estate/housing_forecast/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The slump in home sales and prices will be deeper and last longer than previously expected, according to the latest forecast Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/11/real_estate/housing_forecast/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
graphrix_IHB
New member
A new term to use (hat tip patrick.net) "used house salesperson".
Trooper_IHB
New member
Perhaps we can offer $200 over invoice.....
effenheimer_IHB
New member
I insist on floormats.
I insist that the developer handwrite me a letter saying why I should buy his place.
And..
Fun little ditty over on BMIT
http://drhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/07/housing-voyeurism-what-kind-of-housing.html
I'm somewhere between Apocalypse Now and Schadenfreude.
And..
Fun little ditty over on BMIT
http://drhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/07/housing-voyeurism-what-kind-of-housing.html
I'm somewhere between Apocalypse Now and Schadenfreude.
I don't know if this one was caught before, but I just got referred to it. Here's the link and a snippet
<a href="http://www.fpafunds.com/news_070703_absense_of_fear.asp">CFA SOCIETY OF CHICAGO SPEECH – June 28, 2007</a>
<a href="javascript:void(0);/*1184365260834*/">
</a>
<a href="javascript:void(0);/*1184365260834*/">Absence of Fear, by Robert L. Rodriguez, CFA</a>
There have been several studies as to how inflated housing prices had become prior to the present correction. According to the work done by Gary Shilling’s firm, home prices would have to correct between 22% and 28% to return to the equivalent of the median asking rent or to the trend line of the CPI. Prior to 1996, both of these measures approximated the rate of increase in home prices. According to Robert Shiller of Yale University, his real quality-adjusted existing house price index would have to correct nearly 45% to bring it back into alignment. My initial reaction to this estimate was one of disbelief and that it appears excessive; however, home prices would appear to have a considerable way to fall, given the high level of total homes available for sale. With nearly 4.5 million homes for sale in 2007, this compares to an average of approximately 2.5 million homes since 1990 or an excess of approximately 2 million homes. Since 1965, the median dollar volume of single-family homes sales as a percentage of nominal GDP has averaged 8.4% versus 16.3% at the 2005 peak, according to Northern Trust Global Economic Research.
<a href="http://www.fpafunds.com/news_070703_absense_of_fear.asp">CFA SOCIETY OF CHICAGO SPEECH – June 28, 2007</a>
<a href="javascript:void(0);/*1184365260834*/">
</a>
<a href="javascript:void(0);/*1184365260834*/">Absence of Fear, by Robert L. Rodriguez, CFA</a>
There have been several studies as to how inflated housing prices had become prior to the present correction. According to the work done by Gary Shilling’s firm, home prices would have to correct between 22% and 28% to return to the equivalent of the median asking rent or to the trend line of the CPI. Prior to 1996, both of these measures approximated the rate of increase in home prices. According to Robert Shiller of Yale University, his real quality-adjusted existing house price index would have to correct nearly 45% to bring it back into alignment. My initial reaction to this estimate was one of disbelief and that it appears excessive; however, home prices would appear to have a considerable way to fall, given the high level of total homes available for sale. With nearly 4.5 million homes for sale in 2007, this compares to an average of approximately 2.5 million homes since 1990 or an excess of approximately 2 million homes. Since 1965, the median dollar volume of single-family homes sales as a percentage of nominal GDP has averaged 8.4% versus 16.3% at the 2005 peak, according to Northern Trust Global Economic Research.
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
Things must be pretty bad when...
<a href="http://www.nwfdailynews.com/article/6725"> Realtors attend worship service to pray for better market</a>
KERI HOLT Florida Freedom Newspapers
Wednesday June 20th, 2007
<a href="http://www.nwfdailynews.com/article/6725#comment" linkindex="11">Comment on this Story</a> | <a href="http://www.nwfdailynews.com/article/6725#readComments" linkindex="12">Read Comments</a>
DESTIN — More than 300 people with a keen interest in the Emerald Coast’s real estate market gathered Wednesday at Destiny Worship Center to ask for God’s blessing.
The Real Estate Prayer Luncheon was organized in hopes of breathing life and positive thinking into the area’s slumping housing market.
It was the first of what the organizers — co-owner of Crye Leike Coastal Realty Wanda Duke, former Destin City Councilman Mel Ponder and Destiny Worship Center Pastor Steve Vaggalis — hope will become a regular, uplifting event.
“The heartbeat of today’s economic community is on the backs of the real estate community,” Ponder told the crowd.
The event was an hour and a half of fellowship over lunch, scripture readings, prayer and testimonials. Those gathered had one goal — “changing the climate in the area.”
“We need to think positively and get everyone on the same page,” Duke said. “Positive things that come out of your mouth will end with positive results. If we lose hope, we lose everything.”
<img width="460" height="312" alt="" src="http://www.nwfdailynews.com/archiveImages/Image/realestatepray.jpg" />
KATHY HARRISON Florida Freedom Newspapers
Real estates sales are down all along the Emerald Coast. According to figures from Metro Market Trends, total sales in Okaloosa County in May were down 44 percent compared to May 2006, and year-to-date sales in 2007 are down 36 percent compared to last year.
During the luncheon, several speakers, including Buddy Runnels of Cornerstone Development Group and the Sterling Co., reassured the crowd by reminding them that the market has gone down before, but it always comes back up.
“You must have vision, perseverance and passion,” Runnels said. “Work hard. Things are positive; they’re just in the future.”
The luncheon ended with Vaggalis inviting all Realtors present to come to the front of the church auditorium for a special prayer directed toward them.
“We are helpless people turning to a helpful God,” Vaggalis said. “That’s what this luncheon is all about.”
<a href="http://www.nwfdailynews.com/article/6725"> Realtors attend worship service to pray for better market</a>
KERI HOLT Florida Freedom Newspapers
Wednesday June 20th, 2007
<a href="http://www.nwfdailynews.com/article/6725#comment" linkindex="11">Comment on this Story</a> | <a href="http://www.nwfdailynews.com/article/6725#readComments" linkindex="12">Read Comments</a>
DESTIN — More than 300 people with a keen interest in the Emerald Coast’s real estate market gathered Wednesday at Destiny Worship Center to ask for God’s blessing.
The Real Estate Prayer Luncheon was organized in hopes of breathing life and positive thinking into the area’s slumping housing market.
It was the first of what the organizers — co-owner of Crye Leike Coastal Realty Wanda Duke, former Destin City Councilman Mel Ponder and Destiny Worship Center Pastor Steve Vaggalis — hope will become a regular, uplifting event.
“The heartbeat of today’s economic community is on the backs of the real estate community,” Ponder told the crowd.
The event was an hour and a half of fellowship over lunch, scripture readings, prayer and testimonials. Those gathered had one goal — “changing the climate in the area.”
“We need to think positively and get everyone on the same page,” Duke said. “Positive things that come out of your mouth will end with positive results. If we lose hope, we lose everything.”
<img width="460" height="312" alt="" src="http://www.nwfdailynews.com/archiveImages/Image/realestatepray.jpg" />
KATHY HARRISON Florida Freedom Newspapers
Real estates sales are down all along the Emerald Coast. According to figures from Metro Market Trends, total sales in Okaloosa County in May were down 44 percent compared to May 2006, and year-to-date sales in 2007 are down 36 percent compared to last year.
During the luncheon, several speakers, including Buddy Runnels of Cornerstone Development Group and the Sterling Co., reassured the crowd by reminding them that the market has gone down before, but it always comes back up.
“You must have vision, perseverance and passion,” Runnels said. “Work hard. Things are positive; they’re just in the future.”
The luncheon ended with Vaggalis inviting all Realtors present to come to the front of the church auditorium for a special prayer directed toward them.
“We are helpless people turning to a helpful God,” Vaggalis said. “That’s what this luncheon is all about.”
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
Read some of the comments linked in the article above. We aren't the only ones...
<strong> Real Estate Reality 101</strong> By: Billybobby - 08:18:17 am on June 21, 2007.
Today it’s a “prayer luncheon”. What will they try next… animal sacrifice? Anyone with a pulse can see why the local market is in the toilet. Instead of feel-good luncheons, local realtors and sellers to come to grips with reality. Local property values were artificially inflated and asking prices are still 30 to 40 percent too high for the average family to afford. The pool of qualified buyers has shrunk drastically, and the few that remain are too smart to fall for the realtor’s spin and overpay.
<strong> Move Over</strong> By: Rick - 07:36:01 am on June 21, 2007.
Move over all the prayers for food, prayers to stop the war, prayers for the beaten abuse children that seem to be growing. Move over homeless and people on there death bed. The realtors of Destin need a new Lexus.
I am completely floored at the nerve of these people to go to God to ask for money. I cant believe any true believer would be apart of this.
<strong>
SubJect</strong> By: UserName - 09:21:17 am on June 21, 2007.
Realtors can sell their listings with no problem if they price them correctly. To determine the correct price take the listing price and lower it by 40%. A house worth $120,000 is not going to sell for $200,000. Just because the seller overpaid a few years ago doesn’t mean people will overpay today.
<strong>
Too funny</strong> By: R - 10:23:01 am on June 21, 2007.
Maybe the caption for this story should be "Realtors Pray for return of Greed and Speculation". "Greed is Good" can't be found in the Bible unless its a customized Bible owned by the Gordon Gecko types.
<strong> Hey Mr. Proud Realtor</strong> By: Dave - 10:44:23 am on June 21, 2007.
I give to good causes in the third world, have family members in the third world who work with street kids of prostitutes who barely get enough to survive. You can bet your bottom dollar my prayers will go toward those street kids and their horrible lives before I waste one single prayer for higher commissions and new Hummers, Harleys or Mercedes, for your realtor buddies and their clients.
<strong> I am dumbfounded</strong> By: Larian LeQuella - 11:23:03 am on June 22, 2007.
What sort of fantasy world do these people live in? If that isn't self deluded behaviour, I don't think I could find a better definition in the dictionary!
<strong>
Really?</strong> By: ReductiMat - 03:04:44 pm on June 22, 2007.
Is this a joke site like The Onion, or did this really happen?
<strong> Real Estate Reality 101</strong> By: Billybobby - 08:18:17 am on June 21, 2007.
Today it’s a “prayer luncheon”. What will they try next… animal sacrifice? Anyone with a pulse can see why the local market is in the toilet. Instead of feel-good luncheons, local realtors and sellers to come to grips with reality. Local property values were artificially inflated and asking prices are still 30 to 40 percent too high for the average family to afford. The pool of qualified buyers has shrunk drastically, and the few that remain are too smart to fall for the realtor’s spin and overpay.
<strong> Move Over</strong> By: Rick - 07:36:01 am on June 21, 2007.
Move over all the prayers for food, prayers to stop the war, prayers for the beaten abuse children that seem to be growing. Move over homeless and people on there death bed. The realtors of Destin need a new Lexus.
I am completely floored at the nerve of these people to go to God to ask for money. I cant believe any true believer would be apart of this.
<strong>
SubJect</strong> By: UserName - 09:21:17 am on June 21, 2007.
Realtors can sell their listings with no problem if they price them correctly. To determine the correct price take the listing price and lower it by 40%. A house worth $120,000 is not going to sell for $200,000. Just because the seller overpaid a few years ago doesn’t mean people will overpay today.
<strong>
Too funny</strong> By: R - 10:23:01 am on June 21, 2007.
Maybe the caption for this story should be "Realtors Pray for return of Greed and Speculation". "Greed is Good" can't be found in the Bible unless its a customized Bible owned by the Gordon Gecko types.
<strong> Hey Mr. Proud Realtor</strong> By: Dave - 10:44:23 am on June 21, 2007.
I give to good causes in the third world, have family members in the third world who work with street kids of prostitutes who barely get enough to survive. You can bet your bottom dollar my prayers will go toward those street kids and their horrible lives before I waste one single prayer for higher commissions and new Hummers, Harleys or Mercedes, for your realtor buddies and their clients.
<strong> I am dumbfounded</strong> By: Larian LeQuella - 11:23:03 am on June 22, 2007.
What sort of fantasy world do these people live in? If that isn't self deluded behaviour, I don't think I could find a better definition in the dictionary!
<strong>
Really?</strong> By: ReductiMat - 03:04:44 pm on June 22, 2007.
Is this a joke site like The Onion, or did this really happen?
graphrix_IHB
New member
<p>LOL!</p>
<p>As Warren Buffett said: When the wise leave, only the fools are left.</p>
<p>As Warren Buffett said: When the wise leave, only the fools are left.</p>
ns2524_IHB
New member
<p>The never ending story.</p>
<p><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070710/070907_resets_are_coming.html?.v=6&.pf=loans">Mortgage Resets: Record Bill Coming Due</a></p>
<p><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070711/usa_economy_housing.html?.v=8&.pf=loans">Realtors: Home Sales, Prices to Slip More</a>
</p>
<p><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070710/070907_resets_are_coming.html?.v=6&.pf=loans">Mortgage Resets: Record Bill Coming Due</a></p>
<p><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070711/usa_economy_housing.html?.v=8&.pf=loans">Realtors: Home Sales, Prices to Slip More</a>
</p>
graphrix_IHB
New member
Hovnanian, home builders rally on Buffett talk
Reports suggest billionaire investor may purchase stake in Hovnanian
By <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=106+115+112+101+110+99+101&y=John+Spence&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B8fe2bbb3-2225-4bc7-a4c5-c33925235512%7D&siteid=mktw">John Spence</a>, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:22 PM ET Jul 13, 2007
<label class="StoryContent" id="StoryContent_Content">
<strong>BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Home-building stocks enjoyed a strong rally for the second straight Friday as media reports suggested that billionaire investor Warren Buffett could be purchasing a stake in Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.</strong>
According to media reports, Buffett may buy shares of Hovnanian (<a class="lk001" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/hov">HOV</a> : Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc Last:
<img class="pixelTracking" height="1" width="1" border="0" alt="" /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=HOV">HOV</a>18.53, +1.98, +12.0%) , which like all home builders is struggling against a slumping housing market.
Hovnanian shares vaulted nearly 10% in afternoon trading Friday while the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index
DJ US Home Construction Index Last: 554.75+21.11+3.96%
rose about 3%.
<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=HOV"></a>
A spokesman for Hovnanian didn't immediately return a call seeking comment Friday afternoon.
Hovnanian shares were off about 50% so far this year through Thursday's close, reflecting worries over residential housing that have only intensified due to problems in the market for subprime mortgages. Home-builder stocks are seen as a leading indicator and tend to rally ahead of the housing market itself.
In May, Hovnanian reported a net loss of $28.1 million for its fiscal second quarter as Chief Executive Ara Hovnanian said the market for new homes had weakened further. The company said it wouldn't be providing earnings forecasts due to market uncertainty
</label>
Reports suggest billionaire investor may purchase stake in Hovnanian
By <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=106+115+112+101+110+99+101&y=John+Spence&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B8fe2bbb3-2225-4bc7-a4c5-c33925235512%7D&siteid=mktw">John Spence</a>, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:22 PM ET Jul 13, 2007
<label class="StoryContent" id="StoryContent_Content">
<strong>BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Home-building stocks enjoyed a strong rally for the second straight Friday as media reports suggested that billionaire investor Warren Buffett could be purchasing a stake in Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.</strong>
According to media reports, Buffett may buy shares of Hovnanian (<a class="lk001" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/hov">HOV</a> : Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc Last:
<img class="pixelTracking" height="1" width="1" border="0" alt="" /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=HOV">HOV</a>18.53, +1.98, +12.0%) , which like all home builders is struggling against a slumping housing market.
Hovnanian shares vaulted nearly 10% in afternoon trading Friday while the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index
DJ US Home Construction Index Last: 554.75+21.11+3.96%
rose about 3%.
<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=HOV"></a>
A spokesman for Hovnanian didn't immediately return a call seeking comment Friday afternoon.
Hovnanian shares were off about 50% so far this year through Thursday's close, reflecting worries over residential housing that have only intensified due to problems in the market for subprime mortgages. Home-builder stocks are seen as a leading indicator and tend to rally ahead of the housing market itself.
In May, Hovnanian reported a net loss of $28.1 million for its fiscal second quarter as Chief Executive Ara Hovnanian said the market for new homes had weakened further. The company said it wouldn't be providing earnings forecasts due to market uncertainty
</label>
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
I agree. Warren Buffet won't be buying a homebuilder any time soon.
The rally in the homebuilders happened simply because they were oversold. Look for them to bounce off resistance at their 10-day or 20-day moving averages and roll over again.
The rally in the homebuilders happened simply because they were oversold. Look for them to bounce off resistance at their 10-day or 20-day moving averages and roll over again.
graphrix_IHB
New member
Hehe I was thinking the exact same thing.