Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
For all the bottom callers:<p>

'<p>

<em>"Nothing will stop real estate values from continuing their decline; they will continue to fall, from coast to coast, category to category, setting up an eventual "crash" when a global systemic event takes the entire market out at the knees. Just laugh in the face of those who say real estate is bottoming now or will bottom "later this year," in 2009 or any other time in the next five years (at least). Certainly there won't be a "bottom" until a meltdown of one sort or another comes to pass and until most conclude that buying real estate is a losing proposition. Anyone who says we've reached bottom in the meanwhile surely has something to sell you (probably real estate or stocks).



THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT THINGS ARE IMPROVING IN THIS ARENA; IN FACT, as lenders get more skittish, financing gets tougher to find by the day and more cash down is required, THINGS ARE GETTING MARKEDLY WORSE. REAL ESTATE VALUES ARE IN FULL DECLINE, AND THERE IS A LONG WAY TO GO. It's the top of the second, not the bottom of the eighth.



Credit Suisse projects that by 2012, 12.7% of houses in the United States -- roughly 6.5 million homes or ONE IN EIGHT -- will have been foreclosed upon (I think it will eventually be worse than that). Regardless, that projection alone is enough to cause significant strain on the U.S. economy, and that strain will only lead to more asset deflation. Suffice to say post-bubble real estate deflation has a long way to go, my friends.



Property sales require a willing buyer, a motivated-enough seller and an agreeable lender and there aren't now -- nor will there be -- enough of these folks to go around for possibly a generation. Buyers, in particular, will become ever-harder to come by.



When "the government" starts bulldozing entire tracts of houses -- and they will at some point -- in an attempt to do SOMETHING about chronic and persistent housing oversupply and blight, we'll start talking about "the bottom." Until then, there is no bottom."</em> - Steve Moyer
 
[quote author="enthdigry" date=1210572694][quote author="morekaos" date=1210571650]This is just SICK!!



<span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: red;"><strong>California man losing nine homes in mortgage mess </strong></span></span>



http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080511/us_nm/california_foreclosures_dc;_ylt=AiBnQsMwQrA8UnWYTpHJo2UDW7oF</blockquote>


<img src="http://www.junkyardjiff.com/OT/rofl.gif" alt="" /></blockquote>


dumbass
 
No, this is sick.



The guy bought one house with 40% down, and used a neg am mtg,

according to a posted on Calculated Risk.



The guy apparently got a windfall, and it was almost as if he wanted to

lose the money. There is pathology here of a weird kind.
 
Interest Rate Swaps going bad:<p>

<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arigOxlIiRm4&refer=home ">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arigOxlIiRm4&refer=home</a>
 
Riding the OC foreclosure bus video

<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/video/index.php?bcpid=1127694947&bclid=1125901233&bctid=1548122924">http://www.ocregister.com/video/index.php?bcpid=1127694947&bclid=1125901233&bctid=1548122924</a>
 
<span style="font-size: 14px;">WTF?</span>



Investors bid up shares of mortgage lenders and insurers despite billions in losses from a sustained housing downturn in the U.S.



<span style="color: red;">Bond insurer MBIA Inc. posted a $2.41 billion loss, or $13.03 per share, during the first quarter because of deterioration in the credit markets. MBIA, which in recent months has been stung by the potential for spike in claims on bonds backed by mortgages, was forced to take $3.58 billion in write-downs on the derivative contracts its held during the first quarter.



MBIA said those unrealized losses do not reflect actual or anticipated losses at the company. MBIA, however, must mark the derivatives holdings at current market values.



That and a decline in new business led to the loss.



Yet MBIA shares rose 55 cents, or 5.8 percent, to $9.98.



</span>





<span style="color: orange;">Shares of Radian Group Inc., a mortgage insurer, also rose Monday despite reported operating losses that totaled $215.2 million, or $2.69 per share, during the first quarter.



Radian shares rose 31 cents, or 5.7 percent to $5.74.



</span>



<span style="color: purple;">PMI Group Inc., another mortgage insurer, said it lost $274 million, or $3.37 per share, during the first quarter.



PMI Group's loss was tied in part to writing down the value of its stake in Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. to zero, from $103.6 million, and $172.5 million tied to a rise in claims payments and reserves for future losses.



Shares of PMI Group rose 8 cents to $6.05.



</span>
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1210642633]<span style="font-size: 14px;">WTF?</span>

Shares of PMI Group rose 8 cents to $6.05.

</blockquote>


At the end of last quarter, they have nearly $425 million cash on hand with $111M net receivables. Their market cap at $6.05 is $499.5M



Assets theoretically outweigh liabilities by $2.5B.



International revenue growth is in the 60% range.



So... A company showing 25% domestic revenue growth, 60% international revenue growth and you can buy the assets (vaporware nature TBD) for 20 cents on the dollar.



Oversold?
 
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajW2LgcbYw2o&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajW2LgcbYw2o&refer=home</a>



The U.S. median price for a single- family home dropped 7.7 percent in the first quarter, the biggest decline in at least 29 years, as values tumbled in two-thirds of U.S. cities, the National Association of Realtors said.
 
OK, so there were over 23,000 foreclosures in the CA in April. This is an all-time record.



BUT! There were over 44,000 New NOD's (notices of default) in April.



Holy Shit this is getting really bad really quick.
 
"PMI Group Inc., another mortgage insurer, said it lost $274 million, or $3.37 per share, during the first quarter. "





and their IT budget was subsequently slashed just before the end of the first quarter.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1210804055]<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/24611595">Banks disclosed 80% of subprime losses says Finch.</a>



No mention of Alt A.</blockquote><p>

Doesn't Fitch still have a AAA rating on MBIA? The ratings agencies have about as much credibility as the Federal Reserve and Ben Stein. A little bit of pancake make up and they would all make good clowns.
 
What I find frankly quite dumbfounding is the fact that no one was counting the fact that prior to the downhill descent in home prices and sales volumes, the housing industry experienced the highest rates of appreciation ever in history. That is why I think that all these sensational headlines are meaningless without also presenting the fraud/kool aid induced appreciation that took place earlier. The current decline is only relative to the crazy appreciation in the previous years!

I was watching HGTV and this gentleman bought a home in LA for 278,000 dollars in 1998. He was completely red faced when the real-tard (she really looked like a retard) said that his home was now worth 1.2 million dollars. I mean please!
 
For those of you who think a weak dollar is good for the US trade deficit: TIC net was an <strong>OUTFLOW</strong> of $48.2 billion of the month of March.
 
<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-05-14-mortgage-foreclosures-mental-health_N.htm">Foreclosures take an emotional toll on homeowners</a>



On a brisk day last fall in Prineville, Ore., Raymond and Deanna Donaca faced the unthinkable: They were losing their home to foreclosure and had days to move out.



For more than two decades, the couple had lived in their three-level house, where the elms outside blazed with yellow shades of fall and their four golden retrievers slept in the yard. The town had always been home, with a lazy river and rolling hills dotted by gnarled juniper trees.



HOUSING PAIN ESCALATES: Foreclosures skyrocket 65% in April



Yet just before lunch on Oct. 23, the Donacas closed all their home's doors except the one to the garage and left their 1981 Cadillac Eldorado running. Toxic fumes filled the home. When sheriff's deputies arrived at about 1 p.m., they found the body of Raymond, 71, on the second floor along with three dead dogs. The body of Deanna, 69, was in an upstairs bedroom, close to another dead retriever.



"It is believed that the Donacas committed suicide after attempts to save their home following a foreclosure notice left them believing they had few options," the Crook County Sheriff's Office said in a report.



Their suicides were a tragic extreme, but the Donacas' case symbolizes how the housing crisis is wrenching the emotional lives of legions of homeowners. The escalating pace of foreclosures and rising fears among some homeowners about keeping up with their mortgages are creating a range of emotional problems, mental-health specialists say. Those include anxiety disorders, depression and addictive behaviors such as alcoholism and gambling. And, in a few cases, suicide.



Crisis hotlines are reporting a surge in calls from frantic homeowners. The American Psychological Association (APA) and other mental-health groups are publishing tips on how to handle the emotional stress triggered by the real estate meltdown. Psychologists say they're seeing more drinking, domestic violence and marital problems linked to mortgage concerns ? as well as children trying to cope with extreme anxiety when their families are forced to move.



"They're depressed, anxious. It's affected marriages, relationships," says Richard Chaifetz, CEO of ComPsych, a Chicago-based employee-assistance firm that is counseling homeowners over mortgage fears. "People tend to catastrophize, and that leads to depression. Suicide rates go up. We see an increase in drinking, outbursts at work, violence toward kids. Before, their houses were like ATMs," as they rose in value. "Now, they feel trapped like a rat in a corner."



Foreclosure filings surged 65% in April compared with the same month last year, according to a report Wednesday by RealtyTrac. One in every 519 households received a foreclosure filing last month, and the number of homes with foreclosure activity in April was the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing the report in January 2005.



Don Donaca, Raymond's brother, says it's hard to understand the suicide, but he thinks the pending foreclosure led to their deaths.



"He got so deep in debt he couldn't figure out what else to do," says Don, 74, a retired sawmill worker in Prineville. "I guess a guy would have to walk a few miles in his shoes to understand."



Financial concerns at the top



Many other homeowners are at risk of less-severe, but still significant, psychological distress: One in seven homeowners worry that they won't be able to make their mortgage payments on time over the next six months, according to an April Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance poll, and more than one-quarter fear their home will decline in value during the next two years.



ComPsych says financial concerns are now the top issue the firm's counselors are hearing in calls from clients. Calls about financial worries have surged 20% over last year; those related to mortgage problems have doubled.



"It's escalated to the No. 1 issue because of the housing crisis," Chaifetz says.



Half of Americans identify housing costs, such as rent or mortgage payments, as significant sources of stress, particularly on the East and West coasts, a 2007 survey by the APA says. Sixty-one percent in the West, and 55% in the East (compared with 47% in the Midwest and 43% in the South) reported housing costs as a very or somewhat significant source of stress.



"The problem affects the whole spectrum, not just people losing their homes," says LeslieBeth Wish, a psychologist and social worker in Sarasota, Fla. "The stress exacerbates what is already there. It brings to the surface problems that were often already there, like marital problems. There is so much blaming people for the situations they're in, and that adds to it."



One of Wish's patients was semiretired when she bought a home in 2005 in southwest Florida as an investment that she hoped to "flip," turning a profit. The woman now owes more than the house is worth and can't sell it.



Wish says her client has developed anxiety, dwelling on her financial situation from the time she wakes up to the time she goes to sleep. Other clients, Wish says, are reporting physical symptoms such as headaches and stomach pains stemming from anxiety over their mortgage situation.



ComPsych's counselors are hearing similar stories of the mental-health toll caused by the housing slump. At the request of USA TODAY, ComPsych's spokeswoman Jennifer Hudson queried counselors to come up with examples of the types of employees they're helping. One couple were going through a divorce, and the wife told ComPsych counselors that financial stress was the final trigger. They had maxed out their credit cards and were living off credit in hopes that they could keep their house. Another woman called because she suspected her husband was gambling again, apparently hoping to win big so they could repair their financial mess. She was afraid they were going to have to move in with her parents, ComPsych says.



For Gary Sweredoski of Myrtle Beach, S.C., the threat of losing his home to foreclosure has taken both a physical and an emotional toll. In 2007, Sweredoski, who had no health insurance, underwent triple bypass surgery and wound up with more than $300,000 in medical bills. Then Sweredoski, 60, a real estate broker, saw his business suffer as the housing market crashed.



Today, he and his wife, Irene, struggle to make the mortgage payment on the dream home they built in Myrtle Beach and are trying to stave off foreclosure. Like many other homeowners struggling with the financial consequences of the housing slump, Gary says the emotional pain can be severe.



Standing on his deck overlooking a lake where ducks swim and bobbing pontoon boats drift by, he says such circumstances "shatter your pride and become very humiliating, even though the circumstances are not of our making.



"The situation keeps you up at night, preventing you from getting the rest you need. A lot of the depression that I feel, I do in private," he says.



"It angers you. It frustrates you. It has a large bearing on your emotional state. When the thought of losing a home looms, you lose more than a building. You lose what you worked for so many years, all of the equity that you have accumulated over the years. It's humbling. It affects us deeply."



Rising depression, suicide rates



Historically, research shows, rates of depression and suicide tend to climb during times of economic tumult.



In an article published in 2005 by Cambridge University Press, researchers compared suicide data in Australia from January 1968 through August 2002 with economic problems such as unemployment and mortgage interest rates. The study found that economic trends are closely associated with suicide risk, with men showing a heightened risk of suicide in the face of economic adversity.



"For some people, suicide is the rational option when they see no future," says Ken Siegel, a psychologist in Beverly Hills. "One's house is very much a projection of one's self. To have a home taken away is tantamount to having part of yourself taken away. There is embarrassment. For many, it's overwhelmingly unconquerable."



In the most severe cases, as with the Donacas, authorities have linked suicides with the financial stress of foreclosures. On Oct. 25, 2007, James Hahn, 39, a chemist in north Houston, was facing foreclosure and had to vacate his home. When deputies arrived with eviction papers, Hahn engaged them and a SWAT team in a standoff that lasted more than 10 hours. It ended in the early morning when Hahn shot himself inside his home, according to a Houston Police Department report.



"Suicides are very much tied to the economy," says Kathleen Hall, founder and CEO of The Stress Institute in Atlanta. "It's a public-health issue."



In many cases, psychiatrists say, financial stresses, such as those caused by the mortgage crisis, tend to bring pre-existing mental-health issues to the surface. Studies also show a strong connection between financial distress and emotional stress, including anxiety, depression, insomnia and migraines.



"Often, there is a dilemma of not being able to afford private mental-health treatment in the midst of a financial crisis," says Joseph Weiner, a psychiatrist and chief of consultation psychiatry at North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset, N.Y. "Children will likely feel the parents' tension around financial stress. This could cause feelings of helplessness and anxiety in the child. Sometimes, young children blame themselves for their parents' stressful situation."



Jennifer Paschal, 36, of Woodstock, Ga., has tried to ease the effect of the foreclosure of her home on her children, Bailey, 12,
 
There is real tragedy out there. This is why I can never feel a sense of glee about the foreclosures going through the roof even though it means I can finally afford a house.
 
Housing Starts Post Surprise 8.2% Increase (from today's WSJ)



BUT...



Economists React: ?Let?s Not Kid Ourselves? on Housing



Economists and others weigh in on the unexpected 8.2% increase in housing starts last month.



# The headline increase in starts means nothing; it is all due to a rebound in the hugely volatile, but essentially trendless, multi-family sector, where starts plunged 35.1% in March and then jumped 36.0% in April. Almost every time multi-family starts drop sharply they rebound the next month; we don?t understand why the consensus view failed to take this into account. Much more important is the single-family sector, where starts dipped 1.7% to a new low of 0.692M. Single-family permits rose 4.0%, though, the first increase since March last year. One good month is not a recovery though, especially given Easter seasonal problems. Listen to the builders; NAHB [National Association of Home Builders] survey yesterday was hideous. ?Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics



# Single family starts stood at 692,000 in April. Outside of a single month during the 1990-91 recession, this represents the low point since the 1981-82 housing market collapse? The inventory of unsold new single-family homes now stands at 470,00. A more normal level is around 350,000. Given current trends in new construction and sales, we estimate that it may take up to a year to achieve equilibrium ? but, at least things are moving in the right direction. ?David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley



# The rise in housing starts was entirely a product of the volatile multi-family sector. In the single-family sector, the readings on housing activity were mixed as starts fell a further 1.7% in April, while permits rose 4.0% (the first increase since March 2007). However, it would be premature at this point to read much into the rise in permits. Given the decline in housing starts over the last three months, housing remains on course to be a further significant drag on growth in the second quarter. ?Bear Stearns



# Permits for new single-family building rose for the first time in over two years but the 4% gain simply restored those permits to the February level, which until March had been the lowest in 17 years. The regional pattern of starts was mixed with single family starts rising in the Midwest and West but falling the Northeast and South. In all regions, however, starts remain near historic lows. ?David Resler, Nomura Securities



# Recall that the monthly new home sales data do not account for cancellations which, according to earnings reports from the homebuilding industry, are still running at elevated rates. Thus, new home sales are actually overstated, while inventories of new homes for sale are understated. As such, it could very well be the case that starts are still running ahead of sales, meaning that the process of getting inventories under control has not yet begun. This in part accounts or our surprise at the rise in single family permits in April. ?Richard F. Moody, Mission Residential



# What caught my eye in the report was the fact that there does appear to be a move back into building condo?s and townhouse?s in some areas of the country that still have major problems with backlogs. This is not a positive development and does again cause reason for concern. In particular, in areas of the country such as the South, were there is an extraordinary inventory of condos and townhouses, an increase in starts and permits is a particularly negative development. We would urge our clients to look past the headline increase, which is a function of a very volatile multi-family dwelling, and focus on the continuing decline in starts for single-family residences. ?Joseph Brusuelas, Merck Investments



# Let?s not kid ourselves, the housing market has crashed and burned and this report doesn?t say the situation is good. But for almost two months I have been arguing that the level of housing starts is near the bottom because they had neared historic lows. Consider that over the past fifty years, the rate of starts has been lower than current level in only thirty months. The March pace was the sixteenth lowest over the same time period. And the single-family level was the twenty-fourth lowest. While we may not yet have absolutely hit bottom, it is beginning to look as if the end may be near. That doesn?t mean we should expect home construction to start rebounding. I would simply take some stabilization in the sector. ?Naroff Economic Advisors
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1210983299]<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/car-deputies-sabo-2044323-boyne-sand">What not to do with a 7,000 pound SUV. Or, Got Auto Club?</a></blockquote>


I'm busy writing his craigslist ad : 2008 Escalade. [strike]Slight water damage[/strike] !!!NEW UPHOLSTERY!!!
 
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