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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Foreclosures hit all-time high

Over 900,000 borrowers are losing their homes, up 71% from a year ago, and a record number of home owners are behind on payments.

<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/06/real_estate/defaults_continue_climb/index.htm?postversion=2008030614">Delinquencies continue to climb - Mar. 6, 2008</a>
 
Workers know best: Job market weak

Even with unemployment still below 5%, more Americans are bracing for a weak job market. The bad news is they are probably right.

<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/06/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2008030612">Employees' weak job outlook likely to come true - Mar. 6, 2008</a>
 
<p><em>Where are the Four Horsemen?</em></p>

<p>Here you go:</p>

<p><embed id="VideoPlayback" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/UGGLENEEVYc" width="425" height="350" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" quality="high" wmode="transparent"></embed></p>
 
Among the sector tracking stock's more heavily-weighted components, D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) Inc. dropped 6.9% to $13.28, Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) fell 5.1% to $16.01, Pulte Homes (NYSE:PHM) lost 6.5% to $12.27, Centex Corp. (NYSE:CTX) shed 6.7% to $20.79, Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) gave up 5.6% to $20.07, Champion Enterprises (NYSE:CHB) declined 4% to $8.15 and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NASDAQ:HOVNP) (NYSE:HOV) slid 8.5% to $8.31.





<a href="http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-23582246.htm">Hombuilders slide as pending home sales data falls shy of forecasts</a>
 
<a href="http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/real_estate/0802/gallery.government_funded_rescues/index.html">Housing rescue: What you need to know</a>



There are so many plans being floated to stem the subprime crisis and avert foreclosures, it's hard to keep track. A cheat sheet on the major proposals



<strong>


Taxpayer price tag:</strong> Seed funding of between $10 billion and $20 billion, much of which could be recovered if the plans self-fund.





<a href="http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/real_estate/0802/gallery.government_funded_rescues/index.html">Housing rescue: What you need to know - Government fix: Uncle Sam buys mortgages (1) - CNNMoney.com</a>
 
<p>Merchant of Death arrested in Thailand.</p>

<p><a href="http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gNURV-EuOx57Uj9dL7RCzePHs33gD8V86LSG8">http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gNURV-EuOx57Uj9dL7RCzePHs33gD8V86LSG8</a></p>

<p> </p>
 
<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aB8RuoKZoKRM&refer=home">Credit Default Swaps market is distorting reality</a></p>

<p> ``The credit-default swap market is completely distorting reality,'' said Henner Boettcher, treasurer of HeidelbergCement in Heidelberg, Germany, the country's biggest cement maker. ``Given what these spreads imply about defaults, we should be in a deep depression, and we are not.''</p>

<p>Like whoa</p>
 
<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTrrFyHtd_mQ&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTrrFyHtd_mQ&refer=home</a></p>

<p>CitiMortgage is tightening lending policies, the company said today. The unit is cutting back on home-equity loans made through brokers, raising down-payment requirements in markets with falling prices and dropping loans on three- and four-family homes that borrowers won't live in, according to the firm's statement. </p>
 
<p>It appears the official data shows two consecutive months of job losses. </p>

<p>So the fed, who had the info last night, increased the TAF to $100 billion. So far the stock market is not impressed. Yen was below 103 when I left for work. And the dollar was neg again. I think oil was $105.</p>
 
<p>Apparently the Kool-aid has moved from the housing market to Wall Street. </p>

<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/23517399">www.cnbc.com/id/23517399</a></p>

<p><strong>Stocks Rebound as Investors Eye Recovery</strong></p>

<p><strong>"</strong>Stocks recovered Friday as investors quickly moved past the second straight drop in employment payrolls and focused on better times ahead.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">The rebound, so soon after the jobs report, was perplexing but some analysts said the market has already priced in the worst of it.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">The market "is a forward-looking animal," Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, said. "This market was struggling for the last six to seven months when the economic data was good ... it was correctly telling you what we got today in the data," he said. Now, the market is "already looking ahead to what the economy is going to be doing in late May or June."</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">"You've got the Fed ... lowering rates, stimulating lending," Scott Fortune, an analyst with Magee Thomson Investment Parters, told CNBC. The market has been "overly pessimistic" about earnings, and now, he sees the possibility for a stronger second half with mid-single-digit earnings growth in percentage terms for most companies.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">"Looking out, it's more positive," Fortune said. "The market is reflecting that."</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack"> WTF? Let us recap the year. . .</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">Housing market is a disaster with historically high foreclosure rate and the lowest equity since 1945.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">Mortgage market is in complete meltdown mode.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">The dollar is turning into monopoly money</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">Gas is at $3.50/gallon going to $4-5 in the summer, oil is at $106, gold is at $990+, and platinum is near $2000.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">Major banks and investment firms are leaking like the Titanic.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">Biggest loss of jobs since 2003.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">But....</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">The Earth has not crashed into the Sun yet. . . and the laws of gravity are still in effect.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">So. . . I think the Dow should go up 200 points today. </p>

<p class="textBodyBlack"> </p>
 
<p>U.S. Mortgage Market Needs $1 Trillion, Friedman Billings Says </p>

<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWM0APufFqGg&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWM0APufFqGg&refer=home</a></p>

<p> ``There is an imbalance between housing debt and the capital base and the quick way to return to equilibrium is for asset prices to adjust downward,'' the Arlington, Virginia-based analysts led by <a t_delay="50" t_width="110" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_static="true" t_above="true" href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Paul+J.+Miller+Jr&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1">Paul J. Miller Jr</a>. wrote in a report today. </p>

<p>Mortgage-asset prices are tumbling partly because investors are borrowing less, as banks rein in both how much they lend and how much they borrow for their own investments, the analysts wrote. <a t_delay="50" t_width="110" t_bgcolor="#ddedd9" t_fontface="Verdana,sans-serif" t_fontcolor="#000000" t_static="true" t_above="true" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CCC%3ANA">Carlyle Capital</a> Corp., Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund, is among investors saying bond-secured lending is tightening. </p>
 
<p>Irvine Commuter - too much logic there. You need to think monthly payment</p>

<p>Ex. "What? My mortgage payment increased? A balloon what? Time to tap the 401K to pay for it..."</p>
 
<p>No, not again. I thought we got rid of all the Pollyanas!!!!</p>

<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/23368372">www.cnbc.com/id/23368372</a></p>

<p>"A comeback in homebuilder stocks has bucked the trend of a slumping real estate market."</p>

<p>So the housing market will be fixed once the MSM stop being so negative about homebuilder stocks and encourage those on the fence to buy those stocks now. It is a good time to buy homebuilder stocks. </p>

<p>"<strong><strong>Lehman Brothers</strong></strong> recently forecast a real estate recovery beginning in the second quarter and raised its outlook for homebuilders.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">This despite a supposed housing crisis that some analysts are beginning to say is overblown or lumped into the bigger mortgage mess/credit crunch.</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">"<strong>When you look at this whole real estate thing, I think some of the problems are overstated and I think some people are associating it with the mortgage crisis, which isn't necessarily a fair thing</strong>," says Randy Carver, president of Carver Financial Services. "</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">What? Why is not a fair thing? Are people paying cash for houses now? </p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">"You've still got to get through all the excess inventory before the builders can start making some money and building some homes," he says. "I still think it's going to be choppy and sideways for another three, four months, so there's no rush."</p>

<p class="textBodyBlack">Buy houses now. . buy seven or eight so you do not miss the bargains. They are not making any more land.</p>
 
Mortgage Mess CEOs Defend Pay





<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/07/news/newsmakers/ceo_pay/index.htm?cnn=yes">http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/07/news/newsmakers/ceo_pay/index.htm</a>
 
<p>ECB to Federal Reserve: "Pound sand, sucker!"</p>

<p><a target="_blank" href="http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iQwVCOST1evgiG-LXcTcO9ug6WiA">http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iQwVCOST1evgiG-LXcTcO9ug6WiA</a></p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>IR,</p>

<p>At this point, I don't think there is anything that can be construed as "good" for the dollar. Even jacking the FFR rate up to double digits ala Volker will cause such a contraction in the economy that we won't even want our own dollars. Yet, anything less than that is going to keep us stuck with currency that doesn't even work as carry trade if the ECB insists on being fiscally responsible.</p>
 
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