Global Recession?
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This goes to show you that timing the market is near impossible. Luckily I went through this phase early on in life and have done the DCA "set it and forget it" investing method over the last decade+.
woodburyowner
Well-known member
This goes to show you that timing the market is near impossible. Luckily I went through this phase early on in life and have done the DCA "set it and forget it" investing method over the last decade+.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
The S&P 500 is showing a series of lower highs and lower lows. The overall trend is still downward, but there have been multiple bear market bounces along the way.
morekaos
Well-known member
Some fat fingered trader punched in too many 0’s at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and “misinformed” the public that we are not in a recession. A revision from 1 million jobs to just 10,000 seems a bit odd don’t you think? That, coupled with 2 consecutive negative GDP’s tell a very different story from Brandon’s version of growth…
Biden second-quarter job numbers off by 1 million, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank says
The Biden administration vastly overstated its estimate that employers created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter of this year, claiming historic job growth when in fact hiring had stalled, according to a new estimate.
Job growth was “essentially flat” in the second quarter with only 10,500 jobs added, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.
Republicans are accusing the administration of lying about the employment data in an election year and are demanding answers.
The BLS, a division of the Department of Labor, estimated net job growth of 1,047,000 jobs in the second quarter. The Philadelphia Fed now says its data shows that 10,500 net jobs were created in that period.
“Wrong by a million jobs,” Mr. Scott tweeted Friday. “@JoeBiden’s admin has been lying to the American people about our economy to prop up his failed agenda & I won’t stand for it. I’m requesting an immediate meeting with the head of @BLS_gov. WE NEED ANSWERS NOW!”
President Biden had boasted about the second-quarter job numbers in the heat of the midterm election campaign, using the BLS report as proof that the nation wasn’t headed for a recession.
“In the second quarter of this year, we created more jobs than in any quarter under any of my predecessors in the nearly 40 years before the pandemic,” Mr. Biden said on July 8.
Looking at specific states in its region, the Philadelphia Fed said job growth in Pennsylvania for the second quarter was “essentially flat,” while the BLS had reported job growth of 2.9%.
In New Jersey, payroll jobs fell 1.2% in the second quarter, instead of the 3.4% growth reported by the BLS.
In the president’s home state of Delaware, payroll jobs fell by 4.1%, rather than the 4.5% growth reported by the BLS.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/dec/16/biden-administrations-claim-1-million-jobs-added-s/
Biden second-quarter job numbers off by 1 million, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank says
The Biden administration vastly overstated its estimate that employers created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter of this year, claiming historic job growth when in fact hiring had stalled, according to a new estimate.
Job growth was “essentially flat” in the second quarter with only 10,500 jobs added, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.
Republicans are accusing the administration of lying about the employment data in an election year and are demanding answers.
The BLS, a division of the Department of Labor, estimated net job growth of 1,047,000 jobs in the second quarter. The Philadelphia Fed now says its data shows that 10,500 net jobs were created in that period.
“Wrong by a million jobs,” Mr. Scott tweeted Friday. “@JoeBiden’s admin has been lying to the American people about our economy to prop up his failed agenda & I won’t stand for it. I’m requesting an immediate meeting with the head of @BLS_gov. WE NEED ANSWERS NOW!”
President Biden had boasted about the second-quarter job numbers in the heat of the midterm election campaign, using the BLS report as proof that the nation wasn’t headed for a recession.
“In the second quarter of this year, we created more jobs than in any quarter under any of my predecessors in the nearly 40 years before the pandemic,” Mr. Biden said on July 8.
Looking at specific states in its region, the Philadelphia Fed said job growth in Pennsylvania for the second quarter was “essentially flat,” while the BLS had reported job growth of 2.9%.
In New Jersey, payroll jobs fell 1.2% in the second quarter, instead of the 3.4% growth reported by the BLS.
In the president’s home state of Delaware, payroll jobs fell by 4.1%, rather than the 4.5% growth reported by the BLS.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/dec/16/biden-administrations-claim-1-million-jobs-added-s/
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Liar Loan
Well-known member
Does this portend a soft landing and mild recession?
www.bloomberg.com
Treasury Yield-Curve Inversion Reaches Deepest Level Since 1980s
Cases of shorter-term rates trading higher than longer-term ones are called curve inversions. They typically arise when central banks are in the process of raising policy rates, a maneuver that pushes up the short-term yields while weighing on longer-term yields by damping expectations for inflation and growth. In the US, they have a track record of preceding economic downturns by 12 to 18 months.
Treasury Yield-Curve Inversion Reaches Deepest Level Since 1980s
US government bond investors pushed two-year yields above 10-year yields by the widest margin since the early 1980s Thursday, a sign of flagging confidence in the economy’s ability to withstand additional Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.
www.bloomberg.com
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Liar Loan
Well-known member
I like this headline writer's style...
Those days now look to be over and everything from housing to mergers and acquisitions are being upended, especially after 30-year US Treasury bond yields this week punched through 5% for the first time since 2007.
“I struggle to see how the recent yield moves don't increase the risk of an accident somewhere in the financial system given the relatively abrupt end over recent quarters of a near decade and a half where the authorities did everything they could to control yields,” said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG. “So, risky times.”
www.bloomberg.com
The 5% Bond Market Means Pain Is Heading Everyone’s Way
Not so long ago, families, businesses and governments were effectively living in a world of free money.Those days now look to be over and everything from housing to mergers and acquisitions are being upended, especially after 30-year US Treasury bond yields this week punched through 5% for the first time since 2007.
“I struggle to see how the recent yield moves don't increase the risk of an accident somewhere in the financial system given the relatively abrupt end over recent quarters of a near decade and a half where the authorities did everything they could to control yields,” said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG. “So, risky times.”
The 5% Bond Market Means Pain Is Heading Everyone’s Way
The impact will be felt in everything from shoppers’ pockets to company balance sheets
www.bloomberg.com
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Declining New Homes Sales and spiking New Home Months of Supply predict an imminent recession.
You can see that New Home Sales dropped to the low 600k's just prior to six of the past seven recessions.
Likewise, Months of Supply for new homes has spiked to 9+ just prior to five of the past seven recessions.
tic, tic, tic...
You can see that New Home Sales dropped to the low 600k's just prior to six of the past seven recessions.
Likewise, Months of Supply for new homes has spiked to 9+ just prior to five of the past seven recessions.
tic, tic, tic...
Imnotmoving
Member
I feel it coming….read an article today about some new weird loan to buy a house with nothing down or they loan you the down payment. It didn’t make a lot of sense. Sounds like it will get people in trouble like the adjustable rate mortgages did.