[quote author="new_to_irvine" date=1253669871][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1253624500]Since it's been a while, I thought I'd give a quick update as to what is going on in the Irvine housing market. The lack of inventory has gotten worse since this time last month when we had a little more than 600 active listings. Today we are down to about 565 active listings (447 are non-short sale listings). This lack of "real" inventory has caused many buyers to sit back on the sidelines and wait until that "right" property pops up. While other buyers who are flush with cash are "grabbing the bull by the horns" and venturing out to the courthouse foreclosure auctions in search of their home. On the mortgage front...interest rates have come down about .50% since mid-August from the mid 5% range to around 5% for a 30-year fixed conforming loan which only help to put a temporary floor on Irvine prices. Many of the current buyers continue to sink large down payments for the homes they purchase.
Attached I have complied a spreadsheet that breaks down total sales (including condos and SFRs) in Irvine since Jan. 2007 through August 2009 along with the number of active listings at each month-end based upon IR's inventory chart. I also include the total numbers supply along with the trailing 3-month supply. The market definitely feels like it has bumped it's head on a top in terms of the number of sales (along with CS index that IPO has posted up for Sept.) but this can all be due to the busy summer selling season. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Irvine housing market if the Congress allows the $8,000 tax credit expire and as we get into 2010 with the backlog of foreclosures growing and the Option ARM resets coming like a freight train. Only time will tell...</blockquote>
Do you really think that $8,000 credit affects the state of Irvine housing that much? This credit starts to fade away once annual income reaches $150,000 and after $180,000 there is no more credit.
Do you think that all these houses in $800,000 range are being bought by people making less than $150,000 a year?</blockquote>
My personal opinion is that the $8k credit is more of a psychological factor more than anything else. You would be surprised that there are people who will justify buying a $800k+ loan based upon the credit even though it's less than 1% of the purchase price. There are many buyers, including ones I'm working with, that are putting 35-50%+ as down payments so they wouldn't necessary have to document income of over $150k to qualify for the loan. I just hope that Congress does not pass the $15k tax credit without income limitations to replace the $8k credit that I've read about in the past few months because that will only push more would-be buyers off the fence and make any already tight inventory situation worse. Like I said, we will have to see what happens once we get into November on what they'll do. I would think that if they let the $8k credit expire you might see a blip down on prices in many markets and maybe even in Irvine. But the real issue at the moment is the lack of real inventory.
