Forget escrows, here's what prices in Irvine are doing...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249296851]

Just wait until mortgage rates go up to 7-8%.</blockquote>


Oh wow, I'm getting excited! Prices will come down but rates will be much higher so the cost to own will still be the same stubbornly inflated and high amount. Something to look forward to, not...



Personally, I'd rather prices AND the associated cost to own drifted back toward rental parity.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249297258][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249296851]

Just wait until mortgage rates go up to 7-8%.</blockquote>


Oh wow, I'm getting excited! Prices will come down but rates will be much higher so the cost to own will still be the same stubbornly inflated and high amount. Something to look forward to, not...



Personally, I'd rather prices AND the associated cost to own drifted back toward rental parity.</blockquote>
I know, I'm sure all of us would like that. But as IR once stated...you can always refinance to a lower rate, you can not refinance your principal balance lower. Something to think about since you have significant downpayments funds which will put you in a better and better position as rates go higher and higher. Hell, you should pray that mortgage lending goes away because you'd be able to buy an Irvine home with the cash that you currently have on hand.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249296984][quote author="awgee" date=1249277435]This Irvine housing bubble will not collapse until the last of you nervous nelly knifecatchers gets out there and buys, so get out there and buy now.</blockquote>


There appears to be an endless supply of KCs... Not enough inventory to satisfy them. Irvine is at nearly an 18-month low of homes on the market and it is practically peak selling season. It's incredible how few homes there are on the market in Irvine and how quickly they are getting sold. Had two within a couple of blocks of me get listed recently. Both in escrow within a week. Average sale price between the two will probably be $850K so these aren't cheap starter homes.</blockquote>


Sounds like a bubble to me.
 
[quote author="momopi" date=1249260350][quote author="Look4house" date=1249189081]What does it imply if this upward trend continues through the end of the year?</blockquote>


Sales are up during Summer and down during Winter.



And, just to make you TW FCB's happy:



<img src="http://img.skitch.com/20080515-aapsadu37c5ycas396u4pukff.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


f'ing hilarious. You made my day.
 
[quote author="26w100k+" date=1249272490][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249270578][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249235595]

3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.</blockquote>


I would guess that the three-month will show a move into 198-199 territory by August. Maybe even hit 200's and erase all depreciation for the year...</blockquote>




So does this change your plans of waiting till things go down to buy up? Have you put a mental 'stop' on your play in case things rebound back?



Curiously, it still seems other cities continue to plummet (Ladera Ranch, Talega, etc.), so are you thinking of moving somewhere else?</blockquote>


I live in Ladera and just anecdotally I would say that prices have gone up as much as 10% in the last 60 to 90 days.
 
[quote author="Oxtail" date=1249223474]

The Taiwanese FCBs would be insulted. :P



edit: Though the map does show Taiwan in a diff color, so that's a plus...</blockquote>


that's weird. taiwan isn't an actual country...just a province of china. just ask the UN and people that don't live in the US and Taiwan :)
 
[quote author="Joe33" date=1249345673][quote author="26w100k+" date=1249272490][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249270578][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249235595]

3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.</blockquote>


I would guess that the three-month will show a move into 198-199 territory by August. Maybe even hit 200's and erase all depreciation for the year...</blockquote>




So does this change your plans of waiting till things go down to buy up? Have you put a mental 'stop' on your play in case things rebound back?



Curiously, it still seems other cities continue to plummet (Ladera Ranch, Talega, etc.), so are you thinking of moving somewhere else?</blockquote>


I live in Ladera and just anecdotally I would say that prices have gone up as much as 10% in the last 60 to 90 days.</blockquote>
Wow, 10% in 60 days would be 60% in one year. Better buy now or be priced out.
 
Its more fun to look in amazment of areas like Irvine that are "immune" than it is to look at the bloodbath that is everywhere else.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1249422074][quote author="Joe33" date=1249345673][quote author="26w100k+" date=1249272490][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249270578][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249235595]

3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.</blockquote>


I would guess that the three-month will show a move into 198-199 territory by August. Maybe even hit 200's and erase all depreciation for the year...</blockquote>




So does this change your plans of waiting till things go down to buy up? Have you put a mental 'stop' on your play in case things rebound back?



Curiously, it still seems other cities continue to plummet (Ladera Ranch, Talega, etc.), so are you thinking of moving somewhere else?</blockquote>


I live in Ladera and just anecdotally I would say that prices have gone up as much as 10% in the last 60 to 90 days.</blockquote>
Wow, 10% in 60 days would be 60% in one year. Better buy now or be priced out.</blockquote>
Careful Awgee, that 10% increase may be moving north to Coto...those sellers are probably increasing their prices as we speak. haha
 
Well, I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. I'm hanging onto the hope that this is the bear rally from those curves IR posted once upon a time. Also, even though the investments aren't exactly comparable, I've been wondering if some of those investment purchases were just money dumped into real estate because the stock market looked so bad this spring. I'm waiting a bit longer and hoping we'll be seeing the down side of the bear market peak this autumn.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1249422074][quote author="Joe33" date=1249345673][quote author="26w100k+" date=1249272490][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249270578][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249235595]

3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.</blockquote>


I would guess that the three-month will show a move into 198-199 territory by August. Maybe even hit 200's and erase all depreciation for the year...</blockquote>




So does this change your plans of waiting till things go down to buy up? Have you put a mental 'stop' on your play in case things rebound back?



Curiously, it still seems other cities continue to plummet (Ladera Ranch, Talega, etc.), so are you thinking of moving somewhere else?</blockquote>


I live in Ladera and just anecdotally I would say that prices have gone up as much as 10% in the last 60 to 90 days.</blockquote>
Wow, 10% in 60 days would be 60% in one year. Better buy now or be priced out.</blockquote>


That is 60 to 90 days. So we'll call it 75 days average. So that is a 49% annualized increase. It's 2003 all over again:)
 
For sake of argument, lets say the worst of this Recesssion is past and the economy improves (even marginally) from here and early 2009 is the trough.



Didnt the early 90s recession end around 92 ? I know California had more localized problems than the rest of the nation in the early to mid 1990s, but didnt housing also bottom nationwide around 1996-98 ?



How could housing prices be so different this time around, so V-shaped ?
 
[quote author="xoneinax" date=1249430454]For sake of argument, lets say the worst of this Recesssion is past and the economy improves (even marginally) from here and early 2009 is the trough.



Didnt the early 90s recession end around 92 ? I know California had more localized problems than the rest of the nation in the early to mid 1990s, but didnt housing also bottom nationwide around 1996-98 ?



How could housing prices be so different this time around, so V-shaped ?</blockquote>


There will not be a V shaped recovery in housing prices. Housing will be near the bottom for years. However, in many areas, including Irvine, the bottom is already here or is very, very close.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1249432836][quote author="xoneinax" date=1249430454]For sake of argument, lets say the worst of this Recesssion is past and the economy improves (even marginally) from here and early 2009 is the trough.



Didnt the early 90s recession end around 92 ? I know California had more localized problems than the rest of the nation in the early to mid 1990s, but didnt housing also bottom nationwide around 1996-98 ?



How could housing prices be so different this time around, so V-shaped ?</blockquote>


There will not be a V shaped recovery in housing prices. Housing will be near the bottom for years. However, in many areas, including Irvine, the bottom is already here or is very, very close.</blockquote>


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1249432836][quote author="xoneinax" date=1249430454]For sake of argument, lets say the worst of this Recesssion is past and the economy improves (even marginally) from here and early 2009 is the trough.



Didnt the early 90s recession end around 92 ? I know California had more localized problems than the rest of the nation in the early to mid 1990s, but didnt housing also bottom nationwide around 1996-98 ?



How could housing prices be so different this time around, so V-shaped ?</blockquote>


There will not be a V shaped recovery in housing prices. Housing will be near the bottom for years. However, in many areas, including Irvine, the bottom is already here or is very, very close.</blockquote>


Nice trolling.
 
This isn't to discount Ipo's data. I'm very thankful for the work he does and all the time he puts on that spreadsheet.



He doesn't include in his data homes that are either condos or under a certain square footage. I forget what the lower limits are exactly so please remind if you want. But to me it seems like those are the ones we have heard are getting the biggest discounts. So by ignoring those it skews the median higher than it really is.



For example, in June Ipo's has 120 sales (this includes Tustin Ranch SFR's as well). IR2's spreadsheet includes 192 sales. While I glanced at a few and saw some weren't tracked due to being them being the first sale like in Village of Columbus. And perhaps some due to lack of information?



But it seems like a good amount were smaller places that had the biggest discounts and that would effectively be pulling the median further down.



Like for example:



407 Terra Bella has a case shiller of 156

25 Oxford CS is 197

8 Pendleton CS is 178.94

316 Deerfield is 190





I only looked at the first few days of June closely, so this may not be the case in the other areas.



Like I said, I'm not trying to complain about Ipo's data but it does seem ignoring those sales is skewing the data. Or am I thinking about this in the wrong way? It just keeps crossing my mind that the low end are the ones that we hear are getting the biggest discounts but that is not included in this data.



I know those aren't near Ipo's target home so why would he both tracking them. But I do think that the sales missing are something to note. Either way, thanks for all your time and effort Ipo.
 
[quote author="xoneinax" date=1249430454]For sake of argument, lets say the worst of this Recesssion is past and the economy improves (even marginally) from here and early 2009 is the trough.



Didnt the early 90s recession end around 92 ? I know California had more localized problems than the rest of the nation in the early to mid 1990s, but didnt housing also bottom nationwide around 1996-98 ?



How could housing prices be so different this time around, so V-shaped ?</blockquote>


I'll give you an example of what happened to my dad. Granted its in Mission Viejo and not Irvine, but heres the story.



He bought new construction in late 1993, moved in early 94 I believe. They got a 3 year Adjustable Rate loan, not an interest only, so he was still paying down some principal.

In late 06 or early 07, the ARM was up and he wanted to refinance, however he couldn't due to the LTV issues. Price values went down too much. So he had to keep those payments for about another year or so then they eventually refinanced.



On a side note, he says the builder went BK in either 95 or 96 (kinda parallel to those Woodbury/Portola Springs builders). I can't find the BK data to confirm the data but he says he thinks the builders name was Signature Homes. So maybe someone else can confirm this. But another builder or two had to finish the remaining parts of the development just like they will have to do in PS and Woodbury.



So yes, prices continued to go down even after that recession was over. Luckily, it was just an ARM and not one of Interest Only or Option ARM BS loans.



In looking at the Case Shiller, looks like they held steady or even went up a little in the first 8 months of 1994, then the decline started again
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1249432836]

There will not be a V shaped recovery in housing prices. Housing will be near the bottom for years. However, in many areas, including Irvine, the bottom is already here or is very, very close.</blockquote>
So an 'L' shape? Like "Loser"?
 
[quote author="25inIrvine" date=1249438455]... its in Mission Viejo ...he thinks the builders name was Signature Homes. So maybe someone else can confirm this. But another builder or two had to finish the remaining parts of the development .</blockquote>


Was it in the Canyon Crest neighborhood -- Signature Homes built the Belcrest and Lake Aire tracts. I don't know whose name would be listed if another builder took over, though. If you know what tract the house was in, you can find the builder <a href="http://www.insidetract.com/search.html">here</a>.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1249441217][quote author="25inIrvine" date=1249438455]... its in Mission Viejo ...he thinks the builders name was Signature Homes. So maybe someone else can confirm this. But another builder or two had to finish the remaining parts of the development .</blockquote>


Was it in the Canyon Crest neighborhood -- Signature Homes built the Belcrest and Lake Aire tracts. I don't know whose name would be listed if another builder took over, though. If you know what tract the house was in, you can find the builder <a href="http://www.insidetract.com/search.html">here</a>.</blockquote>


Love that site! It could also be JM Peters, which was taken over by Cal Pac in 92, or it could have been Bramelea, which IRCC was taken over by William Lyon around the same time.
 
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