Forget escrows, here's what prices in Irvine are doing...

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[quote author="Look4house" date=1249189081]What does it imply if this upward trend continues through the end of the year?</blockquote>


It shows that Irvine is in its second bubble.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1249190656]It shows that Irvine is in its second bubble.</blockquote>


I can understand the exotic and irresponsible loans created the last housing bubble. Please explain that how we can have a second housing bubble when our country is in great depression, jobless rates are the highest in more than 20 years, mortgage lending standards are tightening? Where are people getting money to create a second bubble? The stimulus check?



If we are witnessing a second bubble in the making, can we have a third , fourth, fifth housing bubble?
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1249203416][quote author="awgee" date=1249190656]It shows that Irvine is in its second bubble.</blockquote>


I can understand the exotic and irresponsible loans created the last housing bubble. Please explain that how we can have a second housing bubble when our country is in great depression, jobless rates are the highest in more than 20 years, mortgage lending standards are tightening? Where are people getting money to create a second bubble? The stimulus check?



If we are witnessing a second bubble in the making, can we have a third , fourth, fifth housing bubble?</blockquote>
Just Irvine, not the country, not Orange County.
 
So, Irvine is different from the rest of the country? Still puzzling. Where are people getting money to create the bubble?
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1249212618]Where are people getting money to create the bubble?</blockquote>
;)

<img src="http://www.math.ksu.edu/~dbski/publication/china_map.gif" alt="" />
 
[quote author="Daedalus" date=1249214029][quote author="Look4house" date=1249212618]Where are people getting money to create the bubble?</blockquote>
;)

<img src="http://www.math.ksu.edu/~dbski/publication/china_map.gif" alt="" /></blockquote>
LOL
 
[quote author="Daedalus" date=1249214029][quote author="Look4house" date=1249212618]Where are people getting money to create the bubble?</blockquote>
;)

<img src="http://www.math.ksu.edu/~dbski/publication/china_map.gif" alt="" /></blockquote>


The Taiwanese FCBs would be insulted. :P



edit: Though the map does show Taiwan in a diff color, so that's a plus...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249186869]<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/080109.jpg" alt="" />



Trending up for 2-3 months now...</blockquote>
3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1249212618]So, Irvine is different from the rest of the country? Still puzzling. Where are people getting money to create the bubble?</blockquote>
So far Irvine has been different than the rest of the country.

I guess in all the usual places people get money from.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1249189081]What does it imply if this upward trend continues through the end of the year?</blockquote>


Sales are up during Summer and down during Winter.



And, just to make you TW FCB's happy:



<img src="http://img.skitch.com/20080515-aapsadu37c5ycas396u4pukff.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1249248422]So far Irvine has been different than the rest of the country. I guess in all the usual places people get money from.</blockquote>


I guess the limited conclusion is either no second bubble or the bubble is created by FCBs?



[quote author="momopi" date=1249260350]Sales are up during Summer and down during Winter.</blockquote>


I believe Ipo is talking about Median home prices trending up in the last few months, not sales.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249235595]

3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.</blockquote>


I would guess that the three-month will show a move into 198-199 territory by August. Maybe even hit 200's and erase all depreciation for the year...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249270578][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249235595]

3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.</blockquote>


I would guess that the three-month will show a move into 198-199 territory by August. Maybe even hit 200's and erase all depreciation for the year...</blockquote>




So does this change your plans of waiting till things go down to buy up? Have you put a mental 'stop' on your play in case things rebound back?



Curiously, it still seems other cities continue to plummet (Ladera Ranch, Talega, etc.), so are you thinking of moving somewhere else?
 
[quote author="26w100k+" date=1249272490]Curiously, it still seems other cities continue to plummet (Ladera Ranch, Talega, etc.), so are you thinking of moving somewhere else?</blockquote>


I'm not at a stage where I want to buy, but if the relative cost of Irvine to other cities stays the same as today, I will have to either: A) keep renting in Irvine or B) buy in another city.
 
This Irvine housing bubble will not collapse until the last of you nervous nelly knifecatchers gets out there and buys, so get out there and buy now.
 
[quote author="26w100k+" date=1249272490][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249270578][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249235595]

3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.</blockquote>


I would guess that the three-month will show a move into 198-199 territory by August. Maybe even hit 200's and erase all depreciation for the year...</blockquote>


So does this change your plans of waiting till things go down to buy up? Have you put a mental 'stop' on your play in case things rebound back?



Curiously, it still seems other cities continue to plummet (Ladera Ranch, Talega, etc.), so are you thinking of moving somewhere else?</blockquote>


I have been watching AV as well and it appears to have stopped dropping as well...



No idea when we will buy. Definitely not for the next 9 months or so. After that, who knows?
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249296731][quote author="26w100k+" date=1249272490][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1249270578][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249235595]

3 month average has essentially been flat since March. I'll say it once but I'll say it again, the only reason home prices are ticking is due to the lack of organic (non short-sale listings). This is causing many buyers swarm properties like locusts, even short sales. I personally know that there are a short sales out there that have 10+ offers on the table. It's just a crazy market out there.</blockquote>


I would guess that the three-month will show a move into 198-199 territory by August. Maybe even hit 200's and erase all depreciation for the year...</blockquote>


So does this change your plans of waiting till things go down to buy up? Have you put a mental 'stop' on your play in case things rebound back?



Curiously, it still seems other cities continue to plummet (Ladera Ranch, Talega, etc.), so are you thinking of moving somewhere else?</blockquote>


I have been watching AV as well and it appears to have stopped dropping as well...



No idea when we will buy. Definitely not for the next 9 months or so. After that, who knows?</blockquote>
Just wait until mortgage rates go up to 7-8%.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1249277435]This Irvine housing bubble will not collapse until the last of you nervous nelly knifecatchers gets out there and buys, so get out there and buy now.</blockquote>


There appears to be an endless supply of KCs... Not enough inventory to satisfy them. Irvine is at nearly an 18-month low of homes on the market and it is practically peak selling season. It's incredible how few homes there are on the market in Irvine and how quickly they are getting sold. Had two within a couple of blocks of me get listed recently. Both in escrow within a week. Average sale price between the two will probably be $850K so these aren't cheap starter homes.
 
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