Foreclosure is the ?cure?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
the actual FC number *at that bank* is 2x the 95k-100k figure?



Does anyone know the total number of SFD in CA? the number of FC in CA so far?



I'm just wondering what percentage of the 'for sale' housing stock in CA will ultimately end up in FC?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1245398273]the actual FC number *at that bank* is 2x the 95k-100k figure?



Does anyone know the total number of SFD in CA? the number of FC in CA so far?



I'm just wondering what percentage of the 'for sale' housing stock in CA will ultimately end up in FC?</blockquote>


According to the Census, there were over 12,000,000 housing units in California in 2000, and about 53,000 in Irvine. Someone could probably dig up a more recent estimate.



Based on our total housing stock, even 250,000 REO statewide is not a large percentage of our housing stock (about 2%). However, as a percentage of what sells each year, it is an enormous inventory. Plus, this is only what is being foreclosed on right now, and it does not include any projections for what will come later when ARMs reset and people who are underwater walk away. All told, we will probable see 6% to 8% of our housing stock change hands due to foreclosure before this disaster has finished playing out.
 
<a href="http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-5/2009/">The dept. of finance has an updated spreadsheet on housing units here</a>.



Total housing units: 13,530,719



Total detached units: 7,756,434



Keep in mind, total units are just the number units that include apartments, it would also include all the apartment units that TIC owns.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1245400087][quote author="freedomCM" date=1245398273]the actual FC number *at that bank* is 2x the 95k-100k figure?



Does anyone know the total number of SFD in CA? the number of FC in CA so far?



I'm just wondering what percentage of the 'for sale' housing stock in CA will ultimately end up in FC?</blockquote>


According to the Census, there were over 12,000,000 housing units in California in 2000, and about 53,000 in Irvine. Someone could probably dig up a more recent estimate.



Based on our total housing stock, even 250,000 REO statewide is not a large percentage of our housing stock (about 2%). However, as a percentage of what sells each year, it is an enormous inventory. Plus, this is only what is being foreclosed on right now, and it does not include any projections for what will come later when ARMs reset and people who are underwater walk away. All told, we will probable see 6% to 8% of our housing stock change hands due to foreclosure before this disaster has finished playing out.</blockquote>Just want to emphasize something here. The statement, "<em>However, as a percentage of what sells each year, it is an enormous inventory"</em> is critical. Prices are set at the margin. Prices are set by the homes actually for sale, not the number of homes existing. The number of foreclosures will actually number greater than the number of homes usually sold. Let that sink in for a minute, and then consider the statements by Jim Cramer and others that the bottom of the housing crash is in. We are in the top of the third inning.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1245411083][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1245400087][quote author="freedomCM" date=1245398273]the actual FC number *at that bank* is 2x the 95k-100k figure?



Does anyone know the total number of SFD in CA? the number of FC in CA so far?



I'm just wondering what percentage of the 'for sale' housing stock in CA will ultimately end up in FC?</blockquote>


According to the Census, there were over 12,000,000 housing units in California in 2000, and about 53,000 in Irvine. Someone could probably dig up a more recent estimate.



Based on our total housing stock, even 250,000 REO statewide is not a large percentage of our housing stock (about 2%). However, as a percentage of what sells each year, it is an enormous inventory. Plus, this is only what is being foreclosed on right now, and it does not include any projections for what will come later when ARMs reset and people who are underwater walk away. All told, we will probable see 6% to 8% of our housing stock change hands due to foreclosure before this disaster has finished playing out.</blockquote>Just want to emphasize something here. The statement, "<em>However, as a percentage of what sells each year, it is an enormous inventory"</em> is critical. Prices are set at the margin. Prices are set by the homes actually for sale, not the number of homes existing. The number of foreclosures will actually number greater than the number of homes usually sold. Let that sink in for a minute, and then consider the statements by Jim Cramer and others that the bottom of the housing crash is in. We are in the top of the third inning.</blockquote>
Jimmy boy said that the housing market will hit bottom on June 30th...and he right, June 30th 2012.
 
Jimmy did say were the bottom is. Utah? MO?

For OC, CA, my bet is about 2 +years for . It would of been 1.5 years except all the monkey business by the Feds and CA to delay the process.
 
[quote author="newbie2008" date=1245487803]Jimmy did say were the bottom is. Utah? MO?

For OC, CA, my bet is about 2 +years for . It would of been 1.5 years except all the monkey business by the Feds and CA to delay the process.</blockquote>


Maybe Jimmy meant Detroit. He may then be right.
 
a commenter from DRHOUSINGBUBBLE:

<blockquote>



June 26th, 2009 at 10:26 am



You say anyone with an alt-A and any sense will walk away, but shouldn?t you expand that to be anyone with any loan type that bought in 2004-2006? I guess it does still depend a lot, but many many prime loans given in these years were 80/20 FRMs. If you had 100% financing as I did why would you say in the house? As you said I am sure it will be past the year 2025 before I could sell my house if I needed to. For me though it less about that and more about conserving cash. I am paying double the going rate rent to essentially rent a place. If you were correct about renting a house in the inland empire for $800 then I am actually paying almost 4x the going rate of rent to be upside down in my house for 20+ years. No thanks to that. I am in a similar situation and I keep wondering if I will still be sitting in my house by this time next year not having made a payment for 18 months. As great as this sounds to many I really want to move on with my life and get this over with. You can?t start rebuilding credit until a foreclosure actually occurs. So please stop with all these waste of time programs. Foreclosure is the really the answer to a lot of the country?s debt problems. Over the long term all these foreclosures will be a good thing because it allows the country to get out of debt.

</blockquote>
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1246165510]a commenter from DRHOUSINGBUBBLE:

<blockquote>



June 26th, 2009 at 10:26 am



You say anyone with an alt-A and any sense will walk away, but shouldn?t you expand that to be anyone with any loan type that bought in 2004-2006? I guess it does still depend a lot, but many many prime loans given in these years were 80/20 FRMs. If you had 100% financing as I did why would you say in the house? As you said I am sure it will be past the year 2025 before I could sell my house if I needed to. For me though it less about that and more about conserving cash. I am paying double the going rate rent to essentially rent a place. If you were correct about renting a house in the inland empire for $800 then I am actually paying almost 4x the going rate of rent to be upside down in my house for 20+ years. No thanks to that. I am in a similar situation and I keep wondering if I will still be sitting in my house by this time next year not having made a payment for 18 months. As great as this sounds to many I really want to move on with my life and get this over with. You can?t start rebuilding credit until a foreclosure actually occurs. So please stop with all these waste of time programs. Foreclosure is the really the answer to a lot of the country?s debt problems. Over the long term all these foreclosures will be a good thing because it allows the country to get out of debt.

</blockquote></blockquote>


As more and more of the general public comes to realize this simple truth, we will get closer to capitulation. Then when the general public wakes up to the fact that all these programs were designed by the very banks that screwed them just to keep them in servitude, people might start to get angry about the whole matter.
 
I am interviewed again over at Irvine Homes Blog:



<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/30/blogger-irvine-housing-market-nowhere-near-bottom/">Blogger: Irvine housing market nowhere near bottom</a>
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1246241840][quote author="freedomCM" date=1246165510]a commenter from DRHOUSINGBUBBLE:

<blockquote>



June 26th, 2009 at 10:26 am



You say anyone with an alt-A and any sense will walk away, but shouldn?t you expand that to be anyone with any loan type that bought in 2004-2006? I guess it does still depend a lot, but many many prime loans given in these years were 80/20 FRMs. If you had 100% financing as I did why would you say in the house? As you said I am sure it will be past the year 2025 before I could sell my house if I needed to. For me though it less about that and more about conserving cash. I am paying double the going rate rent to essentially rent a place. If you were correct about renting a house in the inland empire for $800 then I am actually paying almost 4x the going rate of rent to be upside down in my house for 20+ years. No thanks to that. I am in a similar situation and I keep wondering if I will still be sitting in my house by this time next year not having made a payment for 18 months. As great as this sounds to many I really want to move on with my life and get this over with. You can?t start rebuilding credit until a foreclosure actually occurs. So please stop with all these waste of time programs. Foreclosure is the really the answer to a lot of the country?s debt problems. Over the long term all these foreclosures will be a good thing because it allows the country to get out of debt.

</blockquote></blockquote>


As more and more of the general public comes to realize this simple truth, we will get closer to capitulation. Then when the general public wakes up to the fact that all these programs were designed by the very banks that screwed them just to keep them in servitude, people might start to get angry about the whole matter.</blockquote>


IMO, the only real solution is revolution, albeit peaceful.

First, dissolve the Federal Reserve.
 
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