Foreclosure and distressed property topics

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[quote author="graphrix" date=1212500494]Well, maybe for Irvine it slowed a bit, but for OC it didn't, and it should be about 109 per day compared to 105 last month. Plus, I think RealtyCrap, is well... crap. The one on Leucadia already went back to the bank, and one of the North Korean units had the NOD recorded on 4/4. So, I thought they were ahead of DQ because they used the filing numbers, but they shouldn't be behind the recorded numbers if they are. And Ipo, you know that one month does not constitute a trend.</blockquote>


Graph my boy, if I thought one month constituted a trend I'd have been busted out of my Controller/CFO gig many years ago... As I am still gainfully employed (knock on wood), you can bet that isn't the case.
 
I posted South County foreclosure numbers for the month of May, via foreclosure radar, <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pCfhpq6dW2rQyxebpHMQidQ&output=html&gid=0&single=true&range=A1:H20">right here.</a> If you go to the link it has it broken out by ZIP code.



NODs were <strong>down 6.38%</strong> compared to April; <strong>up 122.54%</strong> vs. May 2007

REOs (sold to the bank) <strong>up 16.59%</strong> vs. April; up <strong>261.43% year-over-year</strong>
 
My May foreclosure guesstimates are in, and foreclosures are certain to break the 1000 mark. I also have been tweaking my calculation, and I will be using excel to do my math starting in June. Surprisingly, my division calculation was exactly correct for the amount of foreclosures recorded by the county for the month of April. So, that means DataQuick is scrubbing the data for either commercial properties or multi-units. My number is exactly the amount of trustees deeds recorded by the county. I am not disputing DQ's numbers, but they are focused on SFRs and condos. As always, the percentage increase is month over month first, YOY second, and on a per day basis.



NODs = 2218, flat 0%, up 129.1%.



NTSs = 2186, up 24.2%, YOY N/A.



Foreclosures = 1252, up 41.6%, up 376.8%.



Sad stat of the month, with the May foreclosures the total YTD will be greater than all of 2007. Yes, that is right, in five (5) months there has been more foreclosures than all of 2007 (12 months). With the continuing high amount of NODs and increasing NTSs, I wouldn't be surprised if 2008 has more foreclosures than 1995 and 1996 combined.



LawyerLiz asked if I ever thought it would get this bad. No... I honestly never imagined it would get this bad, and this bad this fast. This is horrific, and anyone who thinks we are anywhere near the bottom needs to jump off a cliff to actually know what a bottom looks like.
 
This has got to affect the non housing economy in a major way pretty

darn soon.



The banks & lenders simply can't survive these losses.



Look at WaMu. We have our checking account there, I've been asking the hub to change

it for a while, too much bother for him, finally printed out a stock market chart.



He's finally taking it seriously.
 
[quote author="lawyerliz" date=1213135917]This has got to affect the non housing economy in a major way pretty

darn soon.



The banks & lenders simply can't survive these losses.



Look at WaMu. We have our checking account there, I've been asking the hub to change

it for a while, too much bother for him, finally printed out a stock market chart.



He's finally taking it seriously.</blockquote>


The million dollar question is whether the government decides any of these banks are "too big to fail."
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1213193443]If the first three business days are any indication of what is to come of June, then the 450 NODs is one fugly sign.</blockquote>


Crap, you mean one month doesn't mean a trend and the flat NODs in May wasn't the bottom?



Oh, but sales are up, up, up!
 
[quote author="caliguy2699" date=1213224348][quote author="graphrix" date=1213193443]If the first three business days are any indication of what is to come of June, then the 450 NODs is one fugly sign.</blockquote>


Crap, you mean one month doesn't mean a trend and the flat NODs in May wasn't the bottom?



Oh, but sales are up, up, up!</blockquote>


Sales, LOL, sales, gotta love thoughtless and Steve "broken econometric model" Thomas for their Kool-Aid snorting spin. Oh, and Pat "Can't promise confidentiality" Veling too.



How about 601 NODs for the first four days in June, is that bad?



<a href="http://www.housingwire.com/2008/06/11/in-california-back-to-the-bene-at-record-levels/">Back to the beneficiary is at a record in Cali</a>, but not OC, only Santa Ana and Anaheim if it is.



<em>Lenders discounted 86 percent of all foreclosures taken to sale with an average discount of 28 percent. The Northern California Counties of Sacramento, San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Merced saw the largest average opening bid discounts ranging from 31 to 37 percent.



In Southern California, Riverside saw the largest discounts, with an average of 27.5 percent, followed by San Bernardino at 25 percent.



Looking ahead, filings of Notices of Default dropped 2.5 percent to 43,011 in May ? but normalized against the number of days in the month, daily average filings actually increased 2.4 percent from April?s daily average, ForeclosureRadar noted. Notices of Trustee Sale ? typically issued three months after the NOD, and a sign of imminent foreclosure ? increase 15.6 percent to a new record of 34,564.



Taken together, increasing NOD and NTS activity would seem to signal continued high foreclosures to come across much of the Golden State in the months ahead, O?Toole said.</em>



I laugh at any bottom caller, and I will laugh at them again, and again in the months ahead. Good times for bears who graduated junior high, and understand basic math and trends.
 
The OCR is featuring a <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/article_2067427.php">foreclosure slideshow.</a> Look closely at the initials:



<img src="http://images.ocregister.com/newsimages/dayinphotos/2008/06/13/realforeclosure.med.eg.jpg" alt="" />



edit: Ut roh. Looks like this was posted elsewhere. It's still funny though! Now we know what BK does on the weekends.
 
<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_2070586.php">Foreclosure auction update from the Register with some prices</a>. Crazy that some of these homes sold at all.
 
[quote author="PadreBrian" date=1213855456]Did OCR post a list?</blockquote>


Looks like they may have posted some selected prices on the slide show. It will be interesting to see how many actually met the reserve limits.
 
Ah... good ol Fraudera Ranch...



PRIOR SALES: Oct 2007: $808,120 Feb 2006: $1,000,000



http://images.ocregister.com/newsimages/dayinphotos/2008/06/13/realforeclosure.update10.jpg



And, you have to love Realturds, who missed that positive cash flow part of Rich Dad, Poor Dad.

<em>

31472 LA MATANZA, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO: This was the high bid by husband-wife realty team Doug and Soosan Robinett for $500,000. They put $100,000 down and have a client willing to buy it for $600,000. But Doug said they plan to hold onto the 3 bed, 1.5 bath, 1325 sq. ft. home for rental income. "We're [strike]morons[/strike] investors," he said.</em>



http://images.ocregister.com/newsimages/dayinphotos/2008/06/13/realforeclosure.update02.jpg



It sounds like BK claimed his house for real this time...

<em>

2041 W. 12TH ST, SANTA ANA: And last, but didn't-sell-for-the-least: this 3 bed, 1 bath, 1088 sq. ft. home with the (graffiti) artist's touch. It got nabbed for $245,000 by a guy with that investor look. PRIOR SALES: Sep 2006: $600,000 Oct 2007: $493,000.</em>



http://images.ocregister.com/newsimages/dayinphotos/2008/06/13/realforeclosure.update14.jpg



Overall, that was great article By Eugene Garcia, who was a bit snarky at times.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1213862188]

<em>

31472 LA MATANZA, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO: This was the high bid by husband-wife realty team Doug and Soosan Robinett for $500,000. They put $100,000 down and have a client willing to buy it for $600,000. But Doug said they plan to hold onto the 3 bed, 1.5 bath, 1325 sq. ft. home for rental income. "We're [strike]morons[/strike] investors," he said.</em>

</blockquote>
OMG! That is hilarious. Of course they have a client willing to buy it for $600,000. After all, they are investors.
 
For all you West Floral Park fans, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=2145202534">1102 Riviera </a>just went back to the bank for $477,199.64. It had been up for sale for $625K with no takers.
 
June is shaping up to be pretty nasty, and Rocker asked for an update, so for the first 16 of 21 business days in June the numbers so far are...



NODs: 2097



NTSs: 1653



Foreclosures: 1008



Foreclosures for Q2 could break the record for Q2 of 1996.
 
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