Foreclosure and distressed property topics

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>lawyerliz - You can look up the Google keywords here - definately upward trend for recession, not much change for depression (but depression likely usually isn't searched in the economic sense). Looking at the graph, it looks like people get more depressed when it's dark out (ie. not summer), that's about it. Hey, maybe that's why the home finance businesses in sunny So Cal were so overly optimistic... </p>

<p>http://www.technobloggie.com/keyword-tool/index.php</p>
 
I have a question on builder cancellations. It's my understanding that builders typically get 5-10% of the purchase price up front as a deposit. Many people have been sacrificing their deposit and cancelling.



I know this may sound odd at first, but wouldn't it be a good idea to encourage large numbers of cancellations?



Here's why. If the houses are built and there is a cancellation, in a rapidly declining market with too much supply the last thing you need is another vacant unit. It seems to me that enabling people to cancel before construction has progressed beyond a certain point would be a good thing in markets which are already overbuilt. In the current market, I might go so far as to say that builders should allow people to cancel without penalty if they haven't started construction.



Thoughts anyone?
 
Auctioneer sells 40 new homes in an hour

Buyers bid on bargains



<p>http://venturacountystar.com/news/2007/dec/03/auctioneer-sells-40-new-homes-in-an-hour-buyers/</p>
 
306 TIMBERWOOD, Irvine, CA 92620

List Price: $649,900

Last Sale: 05/31/06

Sales Price: $750,000

Bedrooms: 3

Full Baths: 2

Partial Baths: 1

Square Feet: 1,625

Lot Size: N/A

Year Built: 2001

Listing Date: 12/05/07

On Market: 1 day

Type: CONDO/TH

Status: ACTIVE

MLS #: S514546
 
<p>Whoa. Look what I just found on the Countrywide REO site:</p>

<p>







NEWPORT BEACH

515 WEST 30TH STREET ,


NEWPORT BEACH , CA 92633

SFR

JOHN MCMONIGLE

949-640-3604


<a href="javascript: var OpenWindow=window.open('/Landing/GlobalmailUs/REOContactInfo.aspx?ReoPropNum=214283','ContactInfo','height=598,left=100,top=2,width=576,toolbar=0,resizable=0,menubar=0,scrollbars=1,location=0,status=0');">request info</a>

$1,949,900







</p>
 
He's the agent. I ran the address through google, though, and it appears to have been the address of a company that sold real estate in Costa Rica and possibly other countries.
 
Here are the foreclosure guesstimates for the 19 business days of November.





NODs 942, 49.6 per day, down -18.7% from last month.





NTSs 896, 47.2 per day, up 8% from last month.





Trustee sales 389, 20.5 per day, down -13.5% from last month.





The fact that NTSs are up, means that the foreclosures will continue to increase. NTSs have become so bad, I have to use a calculation to guesstimate what they will be. They are almost dead even with NODS.





Despite NODs being down, it looks like that will not be a trend. So far, December is starting off on the wrong foot. One month can just be noise, and until I see a trend, I will continue to be bearish on the foreclosure numbers.





The guesstimated ratio for resale home sales to foreclosures was 1.3.





The guesstimated ratio for resale home sales to foreclosures was 3.24.





If the trend stays the same, then Q4 will be the worst on record for resales to foreclosure ratio.
 
Has anybody done anything on overall reduction in offering prices, not sales, asking prices, for various zip codes? I haven't seen anything like that on the blog, just individual house reductions.
 
<p>Lender anxiety: Discounts at foreclosure auctions</p>

<p><a rel="nofollow" href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/12/lender-anxiety.html">http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/12/lender-anxiety.html</a></p>

<p>Lenders are clearly becoming anxious to avoid taking on more real estate owned (REO) assets,” ForeclosureRadar founder Sean O’Toole said in a press release. O’Toole called the discounting trend a “sea change” in the banks’ pricing strategy.</p>

<p>“We were surprised by the magnitude of the discount and even more surprised that most of the homes went back to the bank with no investor bidding in spite of the price cut,” he said.</p>

<p>Example: A Stockton home with an underlying foreclosed loan of $419,000 was recently auctioned with an opening bid of $240,000 — a discount of 42.8% from the bank’s investment — and still attracted no bids, O’Toole says.</p>

<p>He says the percentage of foreclosed homes now being discounted at auction is 66%, and the average lender discount is $48,000 — up from $9,000 at the beginning of the year.</p>
 
<p>Report from the foreclosure wars:</p>

<p>First client: had already tried to represent themselves. Final Summary Judgt granted; sale scheduled for the 20th. I filed a motion to Set Aside, with not much hope, frankly. Sloppy foreclosure firm claims they never got my Notice of Hearing, didn't show; judge grants motion. Borrower claims she can get the money. We'll see.</p>

<p>Second client: had a pulse, so was granted nearly a million dollars worth of loans on overpriced property. One burnt down, unusually for here, it was wood, and he couldn't afford to pay the keep up the a/c units. A spark, and poof! Fighting with insurance company. I'm not in that. Other house, can't afford. I'm hoping to keep it going until cramdown provisions enacted, or he is free of IRS taxes on forgiveness of debt.</p>

<p>Bottom line, I've decided to be the wrath of whatever and torment mtg companies to the max. Because I can, and they deserve it. They pled they can't find the note each and every time and now due to Tanta, I know it's because they don't have their chain of endorsements</p>

<p>Probably not moral, but too much fun to give up.</p>
 
Looking for thoughts...



History -

Bought in Talega towards the end of the bubble and sold 8mos later to relocate for work to WA. Made good $$

Bought in WA and sold 15 mos later to move back to SoCal and washed on that property after agent fees. (Wife HATED the rain)

Been renting in Quail Hill since Jan 2007 (2br condo for $2350), originally waiting for WA house to sell (sold in April).



We want to buy...planning on staying here for a while. Looking at San Clem but like the convenience of Irvine. Been watching prices drop...and drop.

Looked at 27 Vermillion (right down the street from where we are renting) and was ready to make an offer. Then I stumbled on this forum and Irvine Housing Blog. Now not so sure that the place is a bargain.



You guys have me second guessing.



Now reading about these foreclosure auctions. How does one get in on these? Are there better deals there? Is 27 Vermillion a good deal? At what price? Or...should I just keep renting and watching?



Really hate not owning... But, hate overpaying too. 27 Vermillion is not our ideal house but we think it could get us through the next 2-3 years and 1st baby (with some work including new flooring).

Would be a stretch. Wife is back in school w/ no income so it's all on me.



Appreciate any advise, thoughts, predictions, visions, etc.



Thank you all for your contributions to this forum and to those behind Irvine House Blog. Great info.
 
If your timeline really is only 2-3 years, you have absolutely no business buying. Your baby doesn't know or care if you rent or buy. Stay on the sidelines for now so that in 2-3 years you can buy a very nice house, needing no work, for a non-obscene amount of money.
 
lammy - We sold our home on Naples Island in Long Beach in the summer of 05 and we are now leasing a nice home in a very nice neighborhood in South Orange County. Our experience has been that leasing is much easier and relaxing than owning and having a mortgage. We owned a series of homes for 26 years so leasing was new to us. Some people can try and paint renting as being somehow less desireable than owning, but personally I would say that if the cost were the same, renting is preferable. We will not purchase again until we have to from a financial perspective.<p>


Granted, I do not know you personally, and one's choice of living arrangements is very personal, but my advice is <b>RENT</b> for the next few years.
 
I like Quail Hill's center, it's quite nice. But I'm concerned about the areas around it being a potential fire hazard (like Orchid Hills).


Lammy, it seems that you've moved quite a bit (and far) recently. Perhaps you want to make sure that your situation is very stable before buying another home here.





The first condo that I purchased is right down the street from Quail Hill in Oak Creek. I spent thousands of dollars in upgrades, had the whole place wired with CAT-5 and spent $$ mula on good carpet, padding, flooring, bathroom tiles, fancy sliding glass door, nice curtains, etc.





Soon after I got my keys from the builder, I had to move back to my parent's house to help out, and my brand new baby condo got turned into a rental for the enjoyment of my tenants for the next 6-7 years.









 
The number of <a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/12/18/foreclosures-plummet-in-oc/">NODs dropped to 933 for November</a>, and the headline was "Foreclosures plummet" or "Are foreclosures are bottoming?"





Well... it takes about 90-120 days before a NOD is recorded. So, December is the month to start getting hammered, as it is the first month to feel the pain of the credit crunch on the foreclosure side. In the first 9, yes that is nine 9, business days there gas been about 834 NODs. By the 12th business day of December, it will have exceeded last month. This is 93 per business day vs. November's 49 per business day.





That is ugly... really, really ugly.
 
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