Foreclosure and distressed property topics

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Also, taxes won't go down for homesteaded residences, due to a cap, inposed 10-11years ago, but the complications of that are not of interest to Californians.
 
<em>>>If these insurers fail you should see a repricing of municipal bonds to reflect the value of the securities if insurance was not around. The magnitude of this correction could be immense and ratings for many issues could fall immensely. Many municipal bond issues have AAA ratings solely due to insurance.</em>





You anticipated my question.
 
Here is an update from the last two weeks of Irvine foreclosures at the Santa Ana court house:





33 Montanas Este #36 92612 sold for $472,124.21 the minimum bid. This home last sold in 2003 for $495k.





4082 Escudero Dr. 92620 sold for $352,900 a $150 over the minimum and the NTS was $843k. I hope they checked the title because that sounds like something is wrong there. Or it could be a scratch and dent lender dumping it.





2263 Martin St. #4 92614 REO for $405k.





27 Kelsey Ln. 92618 REO for $768k.





322 Quail Ridge 92603 REO for $564k





153 Roadrunner 92603 REO for $685k.





125 Islington 92620 REO for $445k.





347 Tall Oak was cancelled at the last minute but that doesn't mean it won't be back.
 
<a href="http://cagle.com/caglecards/main.asp?image=/news/HousingMarket07/images/stantis3.jpg"><img height="365" width="600" align="bottom" border="0" naturalsizeflag="3" alt="" src="http://cagle.com/news/HousingMarket07/images/stantis3.jpg" /></a>
 
<a href="http://cagle.com/caglecards/main.asp?image=/news/HousingMarket07/images/walthandelsman.jpg"><img height="334" width="500" align="bottom" border="0" naturalsizeflag="3" alt="" src="http://cagle.com/news/HousingMarket07/images/walthandelsman.jpg" /></a>
 
<p>This Costa Mesa, not Irvine. But does anybody else smell fraud? Check out the sales history, especially the 9/01/2006 sale:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1114926">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1114926</a></p>

Sales History



<p>







<strong>Date</strong>

<strong>Price</strong>

<strong>Appreciation</strong>





08/20/2007

$423,627



-55.2%/yr







09/01/2006

$920,000



320.0%/yr







07/11/2006

$750,000



12.7%/yr







05/19/2005

$654,000



21.8%/yr







10/16/1990

$37,000



--









</p>
 
<p>23 OAKHURST ROAD, Irvine, CA 92620


List Price: $999,900


Last Sale: 08/30/05


Sales Price: $1,060,000


Bedrooms: 5


Full Baths: 3


Partial Baths: 0


Square Feet: 2,588


Lot Size: 5,000 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1996


Listing Date: 11/02/07


On Market: 0 day


Type: SFR


Status: ACTIVE


MLS #: S511578


***************</p>

<p>14821 SUMAC AVENUE, Irvine, CA 92606


List Price: $559,900


Last Sale: 07/28/04


Sales Price: $590,000


Bedrooms: 3


Full Baths: 2


Partial Baths: 0


Square Feet: 1,500


Lot Size: 5,000 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1972


Listing Date: 11/02/07


On Market: 0 day


Type: SFR


Status: ACTIVE


MLS #: S511568


</p>
 
4032 RAMPAGE LANE, Irvine, CA 92620


List Price: $719,900


Last Sale: 03/20/06


Sales Price: $815,000


Bedrooms: 5


Full Baths: 3


Partial Baths: 0


Square Feet: 2,700


Lot Size: 8,400 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1970


Listing Date: 11/02/07


On Market: 0 day


Type: SFR


Status: ACTIVE


MLS #: S511527

 
<p>Not sure if this is distressed or not.... What a drop!</p>

<p>3403 LADRILLO AISLE, Irvine, CA 92606</p>

<p>Price Reduced: 10/06/07 -- $405,000 to $379,000</p>

<p>Price Reduced: 11/03/07 -- $379,000 to $319,000</p>

<p>If $319k is for real and not just an MLS alert gimmick, it would utterly <strong>destroy</strong> the 1/1 valuations in Brio. A whole mess of these things changed hands in 2006 for $400k or so. </p>
 
8 LILAC, Irvine, CA 92618

List Price: $574,900

Last Sale: 06/23/05

Sales Price: $650,000

Bedrooms: 3

Full Baths: 3

Partial Baths: 0

Square Feet: 1,525

Lot Size: N/A

Year Built: 2000

Listing Date: 11/05/07

On Market: 0 day

Type: CONDO/TH

Status: ACTIVE

MLS #: S511767
 
<a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=61644033">The high end is not immune</a>! Back to the bank for $2.3mil.
 
From a Lehman Brothers Report:





<p class="MsoNormal">Doom and gloom in the US housing sector over the next two years In this Lehman Report (Pages 7-11) from our Fixed Income U.S. Securitized Products Research, entitled MBS Strategy Weekly, the following key conclusions are reached (which are supportive of the conclusions made in Lehman's Housing Weekly over the last three months):</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">* Foreclosures will have a bigger impact today than in the early</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">'90s downcycle due to total mortgage debt being around 50% of residential investment today compared with around 40% in the early '90s.</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">* Foreclosures to rise four-five fold from current levels over the</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">next two years.</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">* Nationally:Foreclosures as a % of existing home sales to rise</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">to around 25% from latest reading of 8.9% within the next two years</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">* <strong>California</strong><strong>:Foreclosures as a % of existing home sales to rise</strong></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>to around 70% </strong></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">* Florida:Foreclosures as a % of existing home sales to rise to</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">around 50%</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">* Base case assumes foreclosed homes trade at a 30% discount to</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">purchase price.</p>
 
<p><strong>California:Foreclosures as a % of existing home sales to rise to around 70% </strong><strong></strong></p>

<p><strong></strong></p>

<p><strong>GULP</strong>. </p>

<p></p>
 
<p>That's F'd up. I'm sorry, but unless you make enough money to buy a home for cash, you should be purchasing a home for 2+ mil that you need to finance. I'm sorry.</p>

<p>That Lehmann Bros report, if the data above are accurate, is extremely bearish and horrifying to think about.</p>
 
I'm as bearish as the next person on this blog, but 50% of existing home sales being foreclosures in Florida. It just doesn't seem possible. Unless the reason is that other than foreclosures, there simply are almost no sales.
 
<p>LL, the last optimistic bullet point is the driver there. Basically, they're saying REOs will undercut the market and take sales. They're optimistic in saying that they're only going to take a 30% discount to prior sale. </p>

<p>I say bunk, they'll take a 30% discount to market to move and that market is about to be dominated by themselves.</p>

<p>I wonder how long the banks have known this. I look at how they've stonewalled on clearing REOs and now believe they're doing it to keep from setting their own comps because then they'll have to discount to their own prior discount.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Bingo! </p>

<p>The instant we start dropping prices on REO's is when we kill the appraised values for customers who already have a loan with us and need to refinance. It's not a good prognosis.</p>
 
<p>Banks are pretty dumb.</p>

<p>I would like to think that there is someone at the various banks actually thinking about this, but based on what I've seen of what they do is that they have not the slightest idea what is going on.</p>

<p>The REO depts have people who probably have almost no negotiating authority, based on my limited REO experience of the past. This will have to change, but it will only change when someone up the food chain realizes that the discounts will have to be immense to move these deteriorating empty houses. By that time it will be too late as as you point out, No Such they will be fighting with their own low comps.</p>

<p>We are just so so overbuilt with apt condos here. I imagine the whole building will go into foreclosure after it's done on lots of these. One of my buddies with a big downtown law firm turned a condo into a hotel, with profits and rejoicing for all. Even he is getting slow. And the property has to be sited properly for that sort of thing to be possible.</p>

<p>And yet those not in the business are not aware. I told a fellow I went to law school, who was contemplating buying a ofc comdominium, to negotiate what he thought was a really good deal--and then take off 10% Or, better yet, wait another year. His daughter has bought a condo, and she married her boyfriend who had a condo, and then they had kids and bought a house. . . This wasn't really deliberate speculation, like Topsy, it just grew. Can't sell the condos, yadda, yadda. I told him they would probably stop paying so better to do it sooner than later.</p>

<p> </p>
 
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