Foreclosure and distressed property topics

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>Slacker Kate,</p>

<p>I apologize for not responding sooner. I would say that foreclosure.com and realtytrac are both equally bad. It is just too much data to be national. You may try some searches specifically for Texas because there are free sites out there. If you are just trying to get the numbers I know that some stuff is available on the county records websites. I do not know how the process for foreclosures work in TX but if it is anything like buying there it probably is weird. No offence BTW. Since you are working for a muni you might want to contact <a href="http://www.dataquick.com/">DataQuick</a>. You might also want to contact a title company like First American or Fidelity and even better a local title company and they can provide the data too. </p>

<p>Let me know if it helps and what you find or if you didn't find. </p>
 
<p>Fresh foreclosure estimates for September. September had 19 business days compared to August so while the number may not have increased the per day number did. The percentage increase is for the per day number and not the monthly number.</p>

<p>NODs 1222 or 64.3 per day an increase of 3.9%.</p>

<p>NTSs 793 or 41.7 per day an increase of 58.6%. This is the number that is truly troubling.</p>

<p>Trustee sales 461 or 24.3 per day an increase of 12%.</p>

<p>The NOD to forclosure ratio dropped to 50.5% from the 52% of last month. It seems NODs might be slowing but the next quarter will determine if that is true. Even so the foreclosure ratio will increase if that is true. The estimate of foreclosures for the quarter is 1296 and the last Q3 that was that high was 97 and it is 22.4% higher than 92. The increase in YOY Q3 numbers it is an increase of 599%. Looking at history 92-93 Q3 increased 50.8% and 91-92 increased 133.7%. 599% is more than double of the increase from 91 Q3 to 93 Q3 of 252.5%. According to my ZipRealty report September had 1220 resales which means a 1 for 1 NOD to sales ratio for a complete flatline --------- time of death September 2007. Judging by the pending sales it is only going to get worse. The estimate actual foreclosure ratio for Q3 to resales is 4.1 and the only other Q3s that were worse was 97 3.5 and the worst year of all 96 3.6. </p>

<p>I do not care what any bull says anymore as if I ever did but they are all drunk on kool aid if they think there is some sort of comeback. This is god freakin awful. I am a bear but I never ever expected the foreclosures to get this bad this fast. I had said if foreclosures doubled in the first half of the year from 2006 we would be in trouble. Well they are near double for this quarter alone. Personally there are very few comps in my neighborhood but if the short sale goes through and with a few of the foreclosures my home is down well over 20% from the peak and I doubt the short sale will go through. Unfortunately I do not expect it to get better either because nothing is selling and there are more and more distressed properties. </p>
 
<p>100,000+</p>

<p>3 ACORN #85, Irvine, CA 92604


Last Sale: 02/05/07


Sales Price: $650,000


List Price: $575,000


Bedrooms: 3


Full Baths: 2


Partial Baths: 1


Square Feet: 1,448


Lot Size: 3,000 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1979


Listing Date: 10/05/07


On Market: 1 day


Type: CONDO/TH


Status: ACTIVE


MLS #: U7004263</p>

<p></p>
 
<p>almost 100,000+ </p>

<p>116 TALL OAK, Irvine, CA 92603


List Price: $699,900


Last Sale: 06/13/05


Sales Price: $758,000


Bedrooms: 3


Full Baths: 2


Partial Baths: 1


Square Feet: 1,750


Lot Size: N/A


Year Built: 2004


Listing Date: 10/05/07


On Market: 1 day


Type: SFR


Status: ACTIVE


MLS #: S508279




<p> </p>

</p>
 
And then there is 347 Tall Oak that is scheduled for the foreclosure auction on 10/26 with a NTS amount of $592k. So would someone go smack the idiot at 132 upside the head with a bat for thinking his crackerbox is going to sell for $859k. I think we should just gang up on 132 and make offers between $300k-$400k just to mess with him.
 
<p>I wonder if any of the regulars have the answer to the following question regarding HOA dues and REOs. I assume dues after trustee sale are the responsibility of the REO office just as any other property holder. </p>

<p>Typically a HOA will not put a lien on a property for past due HOA dues until the owner is substantially past due. Are the liens suborbinate to the 1st and 2nd mortgage? If the HOA hasn't put a lien on the property, does the foreclosure on the 1st wipe out the balance for the REO office? Does the minimum bid at trustee auction include due HOA dues? What if the property has a past due HOA balance but the HOA has not filed a lien? Are the dues tied to the property deed or are they tied to the owner? If I recall correctly, part of the closing process for HOA properties includes a dues release by the HOA for the deed to be clear and close, do I remember correctly?</p>

<p>Like any regular property owner, the HOA can place a lien and foreclose on the REO office if the REO office fails to pay the HOA dues and meets California's requirement for the non-judicial foreclosure ($1800 & 1 year past due). I know the REO offices are slammed. Are they staying current with the property taxes and HOA dues? When thinking of the new condo developments, the HOAs and property taxes can easily be another $1000/month or more on-going bleed for the REO office. How do they recognize those charges?</p>
 
<p><em>I have a whole theory in the back of my head that debunks the myth that supply hasn't kept up with the demand.</em></p>

<p>Graprhix, did you ever get your population growth/housing grow blog entry done?</p>
 
<p>I'm still working on the data collection and with my ADD I have to really focus to make sure I get it right. I also have been busy with work so that delays things. And even as much as I am here I am trying to have a little social life. I admire IR and his time management skills because it really is amazing how he does it all.</p>

<p>If you have any ideas to add I'd love to hear it. I brought it up months ago in the forums and got some feedback on it. Maybe later I will try find that thread and bump it up.</p>
 
<p>Graphrix and IHB are mentioned in the OC Register today on foreclosures:</p>

<p><a rel="nofollow" href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/10/few-buyers-for-foreclosures-in-oc/">http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/10/few-buyers-for-foreclosures-in-oc/</a></p>
 
<p><a href="http://www.zillow.com/aerial/DualMapPage.htm?zpid=63112509">The high end is not immune</a>. Click on east and drag the prop down a bit to match the map. This one went back to the bank for $1.59mil. Then there is <a href="http://www.zillow.com/aerial/DualMapPage.htm?zpid=61642618">this one</a> that already went BK and is scheduled for the auction on 10/25 for $1.89mil. I bet these flippers thought they would be worth $5mil when they were going to sell them.</p>

<p>Caliguy2699 do you check this thread? I may have a SFR for you in Mission Viejo that was bought for $80.5k at the foreclosure auction. Yes that is eighty thousand and five hundred dollars. I just need to double check that it wasn't a second lien. </p>
 
I'm guessing it was a 2nd. I can't imagine the pros would have let an SFR good at $80K without a fight, unless the buyer was foreclosure whale that would crush anybody making a move on 'their' property.
 
<p>NSR,</p>

<p>That is what I was thinking. But what is weird is the NTS amount was $462k which seems like a first. They bought it in 2003 for $520k and peak was mid-$700's so it would be tough to yank that much cash out on a second. It is listed for $599k for 122 days now. It was the 1 that sold of the 19 that were auctioned. I haven't checked the title yet but I will be surprised if it is a second. Because who the heck would pay $80k for a 2nd when the likelihood of them defaulting on the first is high. That is an $80k gamble that is just crazy in this market. Well wait there are people who are still drinking the Kool-Aid, so nevermind that last comment.</p>
 
Wow, saw the Mission Viejo property you guys are talking about, I'm very surprise if this property was sold for $80.5K. It has to be a second lien or else nobody else was there at the auction. Even in that case, the bank would take it back. I can't imagine a $700K property going for $80.5K. Seems like a rookie buy ?
 
<p>New to this thread, thanks for the invite Graphix. I've got a question. No_Such_Reality made a reference to the "pros". Are these individuals, businesses, reit's, etc.... And how many of these poeple are there out there?</p>

<p>I have had this thought in the back of my head for a while, that at some point during a decline, there is probably a ton of money and people sitting on the sidelines waiting for this opportunity. And to the extent they start buying up properties it will have the affect of helping to re-balance the market. Now I'm sure one of the responses will be that even these pros are waiting to let some dust settle before they feel the time is right, but is this a valid line of thinking? Any thoughts / comments?</p>
 
<p>FamilyGuy,</p>

<p>Welcome to the forums and I am glad you joined. Have a look around and you will find all kinds of info not only about housing but from beer to noisy neighbors to stock trades. There is a diverse group of people here that enjoy the community that it has become. </p>

<p>When NSR says "pros" he means people who have been investing in foreclosures as a business. Typically at the foreclosure auction there will be 3 to 8 lately. It might get higher depending on the market. You know who they are because they are prepared and if they are looking at a specific property they will leave if the annoucement is that the property has been postponed or cancelled. If you go more than once you will see them again and again. They also know each other and talk to each other or the auctioneer. They will even joke about a dump in Santa Ana that somehow had a minimum bid/loan of $700k when it never should have even been $500k.</p>

<p>As for the pros stepping in they know the market well enough or like you say there are people with money to step in. For example today at Santa Ana 19 properties were auctioned and 3 sold. One was a SFR south of the 5 in San Clemente for $555k that zillow has valued at $725k. One that was on 30th street in Newport's Cannery Village for $1.6mil (remember you need a cashiers check, so yeah they have money) and zillow doesn't have a value but IMO they could put this on the market for $1.8mil and it would sell. These are very cool and unique live/work units that are near 3000 sqft. One in Garden Grove sold for $446k that has comps in the mid $500s. I wasn't there but I could point out which "pro" bought this one. He buys a lot of properties and works on smaller profit margin. </p>

<p>Having 3 sell is a big day since on most days it will only be 1. But aside from the Garden Grove property the other two were unique. </p>

<p>Next up for those that have big bucks is to buy properties from the lenders in bulk at a deep discount. </p>
 
FamilyGuy,





Welcome to the forums.





<em>"there is probably a ton of money and people sitting on the sidelines waiting for this opportunity. And to the extent they start buying up properties it will have the affect of helping to re-balance the market."</em>





This is certainly true. These are the group of investors who will come in to form a durable bottom -- if prices drop low enough. I discussed them in this post: <a title="Permanent Link to How Inflated are House Prices?" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/03/03/how-inflated-are-house-prices/">How Inflated are House Prices? </a>Unfortunately, the price levels where these people will come in to buy are significantly below the current market. Investors with cash want a real deal, and they want to know they can rent it for a profit if they must hold it. To accomplish these objectives, they will not pay more than 120 times monthly rent. With the current gross rent multiplier somewhere between 200 and 240, prices still have a long way to drop before you will see large amounts of capital flow into residential real estate.





There will always be a few investors who try to make a few bucks catching falling knives. If they can buy something 20% under current market and flip if for 5%-10% under market, they can still make a buck. This is very risky, so few attempt it. There will not be enough of these flippers to support a market bottom.
 
From <a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/more-subprime-mortgage-data.html">Calculated Risk:</a>





Look at the default rates on these 2/28 loans. I would say it is amazing accept that it is also to be expected.





<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/ubscasubprimepurchase.bmp" alt="" />
 
I have yet to read that post at CR but even that chart only tells a portion of the story because of the credit score range. You throw in the 500-624 FICO scores and that chart would get a lot worse. My gawd look how fast Q1 of 2007 is going up. No wonder the ABX index shows that it is the worst performing vintage.
 
<p>Zovall or IR,</p>

<p>Please do a profile on this property!!! It is right across the street from my apartment in Quail Hill. The address is 414 Quail Ridge. This is right across from the apartment complex.</p>

<p>I was walking my dog last night and saw this property listed with a brochure. I was going to post what it said but, I forgot it at home.


It is a 3 bd condo w/no back yard and no patio. This appears to be a new listing; I walk on this street everyday and I just noticed it last night. </p>

<p>List price 739,000! WTF!!!</p>

<p>Here is the zillow link, which estimates 600k.</p>

<p><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=64796459">http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=64796459</a></p>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top