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sleepy5136 said:
Because he doesn?t want to freak the markets out. Markets are already volatile as it is. As stupid as that may sound, it really is the main reason why rates weren?t raised today. He did say they will most likely raise rates in March though.
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Even just confirming like rate raise in March made the market drop back already, even though the market had already priced this in. Imagine if the Fed raised rates in January. The market would crash.
 
Movingup said:
sleepy5136 said:
Because he doesn?t want to freak the markets out. Markets are already volatile as it is. As stupid as that may sound, it really is the main reason why rates weren?t raised today. He did say they will most likely raise rates in March though.
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Disagreed. Market is already in panic mode because no one knows what he is going to do. I think the market wants to get over the rate hike ASAP. The sooner inflation is being controlled, the less we need to talk about raising rates every month.
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You can disagree all you want. Market DID NOT factor in a rate hike in January 2022. If that were to have happened, that would be a huge blow to the markets. If there is one thing the market does not like is uncertainty.

Powell is very clear with what he plans to do. If there is a change in course, he will say it early enough so that the markets start to price it in. For example, when he threw the word transitory. Another example is when he said he will accelerate the taper. And todays example, they will most likely raise interest rates in March 2022. 
 
zubs said:
Forget the above.  I'll just copy the WSB post:


https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/rspxmv/nancy_pelosi_latest_trades/

Look at Pelosi's option play. Right now at the time I am typing this, 9/16 2000C on GOOGL cost $97430/contract. GOOGL is trading at 2933. The intrinsic value of the contract is $2933 (current share price) - 2000 (strike price) = $933 x 100 = $93k. Look at the price of the option - it is $97430, meaning time value is only worth about $4k while the intrinsic value dominates the price of the option (it is worth $93k). Pelosi doesn't give a shit about theta, IV, etc. etc., she's playing the intrinsic value of the options contract.

Delta on her 9/16 2000C is about 0.9, meaning for every $1 GOOGL goes up, she makes 0.9 x 100 x 10 (because she bought 10 contracts) = $900. How many shares of GOOGL would I have to go out and buy right now if I wanted to make $900 every time GOOGL went up $1? Obviously I'd have to buy 900 shares of GOOGL, which would cost 900 x 2933 = $2.6M right now. How much did Pelosi pay for her options contracts? $990,000. See the difference? Pelosi gets to basically own the stock of GOOGL for only $990,000 using deep ITM options versus having to buy $2.6M worth of stock to make the same amount of profit per $1 move of GOOGL. It's because options are levered plays. Pelosi only gives a shit about the intrinsic value of the options contracts and isn't a degenerate ape WSB gambler who wants to play the time value premium changes for OTM options. You can use options for a lot more things than just gambling on time value....deep ITM options are like owning the stock for a fraction of the price of actually going out and buying the stock.
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Looks like Pelosi was right.  I hope you followed her bet.
I wonder how congress critters can be so right @picking stocks...hmm....

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG?p=GOOG&.tsrc=fin-srch
google going up tomorrow.
 
zubs said:
FB just took a shit...
is it oversold?

Perhaps will pick some up on FRI.
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Really hard to say what happens. Paypal was down 18% AH yesterday and ended up down 25% today (even worse!). Docu did the same thing.

I've seen other stocks trade down hard AH that never reach those levels the next day.

 
Ready2Downsize said:
zubs said:
FB just took a shit...
is it oversold?

Perhaps will pick some up on FRI.
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Really hard to say what happens. Paypal was down 18% AH yesterday and ended up down 25% today (even worse!). Docu did the same thing.

I've seen other stocks trade down hard AH that never reach those levels the next day.
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In this market, it's likely that FB trades down harder tomorrow, like PayPal. Just look at AMD and GOOG. Both were up more than 10% AH yesterday and but were just up 5-6% today. Most likely, the job report on Friday is weighing the market, after what ADP reported this morning.
 
Paypal has just been a real mess for a long while, really just a continuation of the downtrend. They lost etsy a few years ago as payment processor and is probably done with ebay now too. Then comes the Biden admin making changes to their 1099 reporting rules, now in effect, so that is probably going to lose them Venmo users.

FB looks like it was a surprise and maybe people will just think it's a one off so it might bottom in a day.
 
daedalus said:
Facebook is the new Myspace.
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Mark is running FB to fulfill his personal hobby VR with no business purpose. They are losing so much money in meta verse development, Oculus which is going nowhere.  On top of that, new Apple privacy has really hurt FB bottomline. I would not touch FB with 8 foot pole.
 
The California Court Company said:
didn?t realize real estate in Metaverse is a thing until recently. would you spend 6 or 7 figures to own a virtual house?
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People are dumping money in BTC. So not surprised this is happening either. Granted BTC is slightly more mature than virtual RE.
 
morekaos said:
Financially strapped? Balance sheets for the s and p are in great shape. Any debt is funded at very low rates. Almost full employment means we can wether a storm.  Trading has been very profitable but buying for the long term is now obvious. As always, be selective but there is an enormous amount of money about to be made.  Mark my words.
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Dow was 21,200. That was easy...
 
morekaos said:
morekaos said:
Financially strapped? Balance sheets for the s and p are in great shape. Any debt is funded at very low rates. Almost full employment means we can wether a storm.  Trading has been very profitable but buying for the long term is now obvious. As always, be selective but there is an enormous amount of money about to be made.  Mark my words.
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Dow was 21,200. That was easy...
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It has been insanely easy to make massive returns over the past two years in stocks, real estate, crypto, bonds, collectibles, etc.  Avoiding losses in the coming years will prove to be more of a challenge.
 
But recall the mindset at at that moment in time...Corona was raging and fear ran the streets...I love that environment.  We will be in a similar panic soon with rates...for pros, its easy picking off the gazelles in that environment.  For the gazelles..its never fun being eaten. ;D ;D >:D
 
I'm normally fully invested, so I wouldn't have had additional cash to deploy during that downturn except for a total fluke; We closed on our primary residence the week before the crash and I had liquidated the 30% down payment out of our savings.  It was only a temporary withdrawal until our prior home sold and then I was planning to deposit roughly the same amount back into the brokerage.  Since the crash happened over the intervening time, I was able to avoid some of the losses (we still had a good bit of money in the market) and I was able to buy back in before the market had fully recovered.
 
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